Core Viewpoint - Crescent Energy (CRGY) has experienced a significant decline of 23.2% over the past four weeks, but it is now positioned for a potential trend reversal as it is in oversold territory, supported by analysts' expectations of better earnings than previously predicted [1]. Group 1: Technical Indicators - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a key technical indicator used to determine if a stock is oversold, with a reading below 30 typically indicating this condition [2]. - CRGY's current RSI reading is 13.61, suggesting that the heavy selling pressure may be exhausting itself, indicating a potential trend reversal [5]. Group 2: Fundamental Indicators - There is a strong consensus among sell-side analysts that earnings estimates for CRGY have been raised, resulting in a 0.2% increase in the consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days, which often correlates with price appreciation [6]. - CRGY holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises, further indicating a potential turnaround [7].

Group 1 - Crescent Energy (CRGY) has experienced significant selling pressure, resulting in a 17.3% decline over the past four weeks, but analysts anticipate better earnings than previously predicted [1] - The stock is currently in oversold territory, indicated by an RSI reading of 17.67, suggesting a potential trend reversal is imminent [5] - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for CRGY has increased by 0.2%, indicating a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions which typically leads to price appreciation [6] Group 2 - CRGY holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises, further supporting the potential for a turnaround [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Crescent Energy Company reported approximately $535 million of adjusted EBITDA and $259 million in levered free cash flow for Q4 2024, with capital expenditures of $221 million, better than forecast [29][30] - The company generated approximately $260 million of free cash flow for the quarter, exceeding Wall Street expectations [12][29] - The company exited the year with net leverage of 1.4 times, within the publicly stated range of 1 to 1.5 times [30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4, Crescent Energy brought online 15 growth operated wells in the Eagle Ford and five in the Uinta, all generating strong initial results [30] - The company reported significant improvements in operating costs, with Q4 operating expenses close to $11.50 per BOE [46] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects production in 2025 to be between 254,000 to 264,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with capital expenditures projected at $925 million to $1.025 billion [24] - The company noted that oil realizations improved from the low nineties to the mid-nineties due to better marketing strategies and synergy capture [45] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Crescent Energy aims to maximize free cash flow generation and returns for investors through a flexible operational plan that includes both oil and gas weighted development [9][22] - The company plans to run four to five rigs in 2025, focusing on capitalizing on recent natural gas pricing tailwinds [24] - The company is committed to disciplined growth through acquisitions, having completed five transactions totaling over $3 billion in 2024 [21][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's positioning to capitalize on future opportunities, emphasizing a disciplined approach to capital allocation and operational efficiency [10][25] - The management team highlighted that 2024 was a transformational year, with expectations for continued outperformance in 2025 [33][34] Other Important Information - Crescent Energy announced a dividend of $0.12 per share, contributing to an attractive 4% annualized yield for 2024 [30][31] - The company has a meaningful pipeline of non-core assets under evaluation for opportunistic divestiture, with a public target of $250 million for potential divestitures [28][64] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on 2025 capital allocation - Management indicated that the capital allocation for 2025 will focus on maximizing returns across their operational portfolio, with a slight increase in gas drilling due to stronger gas prices [39][40] Question: Drivers behind improved OpEx and oil realizations - Management attributed the improved oil realizations to better marketing strategies and synergy capture, while the lower operating expenses were driven by operational improvements and one-off items [42][46] Question: Future growth and acquisition strategy - Management confirmed satisfaction with past acquisitions and indicated that while they see opportunities for growth, they will remain disciplined and focused on high-quality acquisitions [50][54] Question: Non-core asset divestiture opportunities - Management highlighted a $250 million pipeline for divestitures, indicating that there are larger opportunities available compared to the $50 million divested in 2024 [60][64] Question: Resource potential in Uinta - Management expressed excitement about the resource potential in the Uinta basin, indicating a cautious approach to capital allocation while gathering data [67][88] Question: Path to achieving investment grade status - Management stated that achieving investment grade status would likely require doubling the production base while maintaining strong financial metrics [79][80] Question: Timing of divestitures based on commodity prices - Management indicated that they will evaluate the timing of divestitures based on market conditions and the potential to streamline their portfolio [91][95]

Crescent Energy Company (NYSE:CRGY) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call February 27, 2025 11:00 AM ET Company Participants Reid Gallagher - Investor Relations David Rockecharlie - Chief Executive Officer Brandi Kendall - Chief Financial Officer Clay Rynd - Executive Vice President-Investments Conference Call Participants Oliver Huang - TPH Neal Dingmann - Truist Securities Tim Rezvan - KeyBanc Capital Marketing Michael Scialla - Stephens John Abbott - Wolfe Research Michael Furrow - Pickering Energy John Freem ...

FY 2024 Earnings Presentation February 2025 Disclaimer The information in this presentation relates to Crescent Energy Company (the "Company," "Crescent," "we," "us," "our" or "CRGY") and contains information that includes or is based upon "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, included in this ...

Core Viewpoint - Crescent Energy (CRGY) reported quarterly earnings of $0.56 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.26 per share, but slightly down from $0.58 per share a year ago, indicating an earnings surprise of 115.38% [1][2] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $875.29 million for the quarter ended December 2024, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.75%, compared to $657.73 million in the same quarter last year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Crescent Energy has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] Stock Performance - Crescent Energy shares have declined approximately 6.3% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 1.3% [3] - The stock's immediate price movement will depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and future earnings expectations [3][4] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.54, with expected revenues of $959.19 million, and for the current fiscal year, the EPS estimate is $2.21 on revenues of $3.88 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Crescent Energy is currently favorable, resulting in a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) for the stock, indicating expected outperformance in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Alternative Energy - Other industry, to which Crescent Energy belongs, is currently ranked in the top 32% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a positive outlook for stocks within this sector [8]

Reserves and Production - As of December 31, 2024, the company had 709.3 net MMBoe of proved reserves, with approximately 63% being liquids, reflecting a Standardized Measure of $5.7 billion[80]. - The company’s net proved reserves in the Eagle Ford are 497.2 MMBoe, with production of 38,708 MBoe in 2024[100]. - The company’s net proved reserves in the Rockies are 113.8 MMBoe, with production of 21,479 MBoe in 2024[100]. - As of December 31, 2024, net proved reserves include 297,690 MBbls of oil, 1,595,059 MMcf of natural gas, and 145,716 MBbls of NGLs, totaling 709,251 MBoe, representing a 29.3% increase from 2023[104]. - Average daily production increased to 201 MBoe/d in 2024, up from 149 MBoe/d in 2023, with total production reaching 73,637 MBoe[114]. - The company added 76.5 MMBoe of reserves in place during 2024, primarily due to the SilverBow Merger and the Central Eagle Ford Acquisition[110]. - The company operates a total of 15,540 productive wells as of December 31, 2024, with a working interest of 56%[115]. - The company drilled 297 productive development wells in 2024, an increase of 22.8% from 242 in 2023[122]. Financial Performance - For the year ended December 31, 2024, the company produced 201 net MBoe/d and generated a net loss of $137.7 million, alongside $1,223.1 million in net cash provided by operating activities and $1,598.3 million of Adjusted EBITDAX[80]. - The total revenues for the year ended December 31, 2024, were $2,930,919 thousand, an increase of 23% compared to $2,382,602 thousand in 2023[533]. - Oil revenues reached $2,130,418 thousand, up from $1,750,961 thousand in 2023, reflecting a growth of 22%[533]. - The company reported a net income (loss) from operations of $218,462 thousand, a decrease of 33% from $324,740 thousand in 2023[533]. - Crescent Energy reported a net loss of $137.68 million for the current period, compared to a net income of $321.99 million in the previous period[534]. - The net income attributable to Crescent Energy was $(114.61) million, with a basic and diluted loss per share of $(0.88) compared to earnings of $1.02 and $2.20 in the prior periods[534]. - The company experienced a significant increase in retained earnings, reaching $1.63 billion as of December 31, 2023, up from $720.02 million in 2021[537]. - Crescent Energy's total equity increased to $1.73 billion by the end of 2023, reflecting a growth from $862.29 million in 2022[537]. Cash Flow and Investments - Cash flows from operating activities increased to $1.223 billion in 2024, compared to $935.769 million in 2023, indicating improved operational efficiency[543]. - Crescent Energy's net cash used in investing activities was $1.198 billion in 2024, a decrease from $1.399 billion in 2023, reflecting a more disciplined investment approach[543]. - The company made acquisitions of oil and natural gas properties totaling $558.600 million in 2024, down from $849.254 million in 2023, suggesting a strategic shift in acquisition strategy[543]. - Proceeds from the issuance of Senior Notes increased to $2,074.625 million in 2024 from $984.625 million in 2023, reflecting a significant growth[546]. - The company’s cash and cash equivalents surged to $132,818 thousand in 2024, compared to $2,974 thousand in 2023, indicating a significant increase[528]. Debt and Liabilities - Long-term debt rose significantly to $3,049,255 thousand in 2024, up from $1,694,375 thousand in 2023, representing an increase of 80%[531]. - The total liabilities increased to $4,792,689 thousand in 2024, up from $3,167,617 thousand in 2023, which is a rise of 51%[531]. - Revolving Credit Facility borrowings rose to $3,168.3 million in 2024 from $2,283.8 million in 2023, indicating increased leverage[546]. Regulatory and Environmental Factors - The company is subject to extensive federal, state, and local regulations that can impact operational costs and profitability[143]. - Environmental regulations impose stringent requirements on drilling, production, and waste disposal, which could significantly impact operating costs if they become more stringent[162]. - The EPA's new methane emissions regulations may impose substantial compliance costs and fines for non-compliance[173]. - The company may face increased scrutiny from FERC regarding agreements with affiliated pipelines, which could affect transportation service agreements[156]. - The National Environmental Policy Act requires environmental assessments for major federal actions, which may delay permitting and increase costs for the company[190]. Market and Competitive Landscape - The company faces intense competition in the oil and natural gas industry, competing with larger companies that have greater resources[129]. - The company is exposed to market risk from adverse changes in commodity prices and interest rates, which can significantly impact cash flows[499]. - The company does not believe the loss of any single customer would materially impact its operating results due to the fungibility of oil, natural gas, and NGLs[507]. Employee and Community Engagement - The company employs approximately 987 employees as of December 31, 2024, with no collective bargaining agreements in place[136]. - The company is committed to community engagement and recognizes the link between local communities and business success[142].

Production and Financial Performance - Crescent Energy reported a record fourth quarter production of 255 MBoe/d, with 38% oil and 56% liquids[5]. - For the full year 2024, Crescent reported $1.6 billion in Adjusted EBITDAX and $1.2 billion in Operating Cash Flow, with an average production of 201 MBoe/d, a greater than 30% increase year-over-year[6]. - The company forecasts approximately 30% year-over-year production growth for 2025, with total production guidance of 254 - 264 MBoe/d[7][8]. - Total revenues for Q4 2024 reached $875.3 million, a 33.1% increase from $657.7 million in Q4 2023[19]. - Net income for 2024 was a loss of $137.683 million, a significant decrease from a profit of $321.991 million in 2023[24]. - Net cash provided by operating activities increased to $1.223 billion in 2024, up from $935.769 million in 2023, reflecting improved operational efficiency[24]. - Adjusted EBITDAX for 2024 was $1.598 billion, compared to $1.022 billion in 2023, indicating a 56% year-over-year increase[30]. - Levered Free Cash Flow for 2024 was $630.168 million, up from $310.204 million in 2023, representing a 103% increase[30]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - The company generated $1.2 billion in Operating Cash Flow and $630 million in Levered Free Cash Flow for the fourth quarter[6]. - Cash and cash equivalents rose to $132.8 million in 2024, compared to $2.97 million in 2023, indicating improved liquidity[20]. - Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash at the end of the period increased to $240.908 million in 2024, compared to $8.729 million in 2023[24]. - Net cash provided by operating activities for Q4 2024 was $384,434,000, up from $322,869,000 in Q4 2023, representing a 19.1% increase[32]. - Levered Free Cash Flow for Q4 2024 was $259,422,000, compared to $102,451,000 in Q4 2023, indicating a significant increase of 153.5%[32]. Expenses and Liabilities - The company’s total expenses for Q4 2024 were $902.8 million, up from $689.1 million in Q4 2023, marking a 31.0% increase[19]. - Long-term debt increased to $3.05 billion in 2024, compared to $1.69 billion in 2023, reflecting a significant rise in leverage[22]. - The company reported a depreciation, depletion, and amortization expense of $949.480 million in 2024, up from $675.782 million in 2023[24]. - The company’s total liabilities reached $4.79 billion in 2024, compared to $3.17 billion in 2023, indicating increased financial obligations[22]. Shareholder Returns and Dividends - Crescent's Board approved a cash dividend of $0.12 per share for the fourth quarter of 2024, payable on March 26, 2025[9]. - The company utilized approximately 20% of its authorized Share Repurchase Program at a weighted average share price of $10.07 during 2024[10]. - Adjusted Dividends Paid for Q4 2024 totaled $27,396,000, compared to $21,919,000 in Q4 2023, marking an increase of 24.5%[42]. M&A Activity - Crescent executed over $3 billion in accretive M&A transactions in the Eagle Ford region during 2024[5]. General and Administrative Expenses - General and administrative expenses for Q4 2024 were $86,687,000, compared to $34,683,000 in Q4 2023, showing an increase of 149.2%[38]. - Adjusted Recurring Cash G&A for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $92,820,000, up from $82,512,000 in 2023, reflecting a 12.8% increase[38].

Core Insights - Crescent Energy (CRGY) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.26 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 55.2% [1] - Revenue is anticipated to reach $890.87 million, which represents a 35.5% increase compared to the same quarter last year [1] Earnings Estimates - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 1.2%, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2] - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions to the stock, with empirical studies showing a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3] Key Metrics Forecast - Analysts project 'Average daily net sales volumes - Natural Gas' to be 650.90 million cubic feet, up from 386 million cubic feet in the previous year [5] - The consensus for 'Average daily net sales volumes - Oil' is 99.69 million barrels, compared to 71 million barrels reported in the same quarter last year [5] - 'Average daily net sales volumes - Natural gas liquids' are forecasted to reach 46.00 million barrels, an increase from 30 million barrels in the prior year [6] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Crescent Energy shares have declined by 10.2%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has decreased by 1.8% [7] - Crescent Energy holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), suggesting it is likely to outperform the overall market in the near future [7]

Core Viewpoint - Crescent Energy (CRGY) has experienced a significant decline of 10.8% over the past four weeks, but it is now positioned for a potential trend reversal as it enters oversold territory, with analysts predicting better earnings than previously estimated [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Technical Indicators - CRGY's Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading is at 29.73, indicating that the heavy selling pressure may be exhausting, suggesting a possible bounce back towards equilibrium in supply and demand [5]. - Stocks oscillate between overbought and oversold conditions, and the RSI serves as a quick tool to identify potential price reversals [3]. Group 2: Earnings Estimates and Analyst Consensus - There has been a strong consensus among sell-side analysts to raise earnings estimates for CRGY, with a 14.5% increase in the consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days [6]. - An upward trend in earnings estimate revisions typically correlates with price appreciation in the near term [6]. Group 3: Zacks Rank and Investment Potential - CRGY holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises, indicating a strong potential for a turnaround [7].