Key Takeaways Caterpillar posted record Q4 2025 revenues of $19.1B, up 18%, with EPS returning to growth.CAT guides 2026 revenues near upper 5-7% CAGR, anticipates a $2.6B tariff impact.Deere faces a 2026 net income decline and tariff costs, with earnings estimates trending lower.Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) and Deere & Company (DE) remain two of the most prominent players in the heavy machinery space. Caterpillar, widely recognized for its yellow equipment, caters to diverse end markets such as construction, min ...

Group 1 - The software trade, particularly in cybersecurity, is experiencing pressure, exemplified by Palo Alto Networks (PANW) shares falling by up to 6% after the company revised its full-year earnings outlook downward [1] - As of February 13, 74% of S&P 500 companies have reported their results, with blended earnings growth at 13.2%, indicating a strong performance overall [1] - If the current growth rate of 13.2% is maintained, it would mark the 10th consecutive quarter of annual earnings growth for the S&P 500 and the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth [2] Group 2 - General Mills (GIS) shares declined following disappointing earnings, while eToro (ETOR) saw a stock increase of over 20% due to a strong quarterly performance [2] - Upcoming earnings reports from major companies such as Walmart (WMT), Deere & Co. (DE), Analog Devices (ADI), Booking Holdings (BKNG), DoorDash (DASH), and eBay (EBAY) will be closely monitored by investors [3]

Core Insights - Deere & Company (DE) is set to report its first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on February 19, with earnings expected to be $1.92 per share, reflecting a 39.8% decline year-over-year, while revenues are projected to increase by 11.7% to $7.60 billion [1][4]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Deere's earnings has decreased by 4.5% over the past 60 days [1]. - The earnings estimates for the upcoming quarters are as follows: Q1 at $1.92, Q2 at $5.55, F1 at $16.82, and F2 at $21.92 [2]. - The average earnings surprise over the last four quarters has been 5.2%, with three quarters beating estimates and one missing [2][3]. Segment Performance - The Production & Precision Agriculture segment is expected to generate revenues of $3.05 billion, a 0.6% decrease year-over-year, with operating profit projected to drop by 53% to $159 million [8]. - The Small Agriculture & Turf segment is anticipated to see revenues of $2.16 billion, indicating a 23.7% increase, with operating profit expected to rise by 49.2% to $185 million [9]. - The Construction & Forestry segment's sales are projected at $2.37 billion, an 18.7% increase, with operating profit estimated at $84 million, up from $65 million in the prior year [10]. - The Financial Services segment is expected to report revenues of $1.38 billion, a 5.9% decline, with operating profit projected at $238 million, down from $266 million [11]. Market Context - Deere's stock has increased by 27.3% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 24.9% [12]. - The company is currently facing challenges due to weak farmer spending amid low commodity prices, which has led to production adjustments [6].

Quick Read Deere (DE) net income collapsed 50.5% from its fiscal 2023 peak during the agricultural downturn. Revenue fell to $44.7B. Deere’s payout ratio jumped from 14% to 34.2% over two years. Free cash flow coverage dropped from 2.88x to 1.88x. Deere shares gained 33.5% year-to-date despite earnings pressure. Investors are betting on agricultural recovery. A recent study identified one single habit that doubled Americans’ retirement savings and moved retirement from dream, to reality. Read more ...

Core Insights - Deere & Company has maintained a quarterly dividend of $1.62 per share, marking the fourth consecutive quarter at this level, despite facing significant earnings pressure due to an agricultural downturn [1][2] - The company's net income fell 50.5% from its fiscal 2023 peak, with revenue declining to $44.7 billion in fiscal 2025 [1] - Despite these challenges, Deere's stock has appreciated by 33.5% year-to-date, indicating investor optimism regarding a potential recovery in agricultural markets [1] Dividend Growth Trajectory - Deere's annual dividend payouts increased from $3.04 in 2020 to $6.48 in 2025, representing a 113% growth over five years [1] - The company has consistently paid dividends for over two decades, with the current quarterly rate being 7.4 times higher than the $0.22 payment in 2003 [1] Earnings Reality Check - In fiscal 2025, Deere's net income dropped to $5.027 billion from $7.1 billion in fiscal 2024, a year-over-year decline of 29% [1] - Revenue also decreased from $50.518 billion in fiscal 2024 to $44.665 billion in fiscal 2025, with operating margins compressing from 22.6% to 18.8% [1] Cash Flow Metrics - Operating cash flow for fiscal 2025 was $7.459 billion, down 19% from the previous year, leading to a free cash flow of $3.231 billion, which is only 1.88 times the dividend payment [1] - The first quarter of fiscal 2025 saw negative operating cash flow of $1.132 billion, while dividends of $403 million were still paid [1] Balance Sheet Strength - Total shareholder equity rose by 13.6% to $25.95 billion in fiscal 2025, with retained earnings increasing to $59.676 billion [1] - The debt-to-equity ratio improved from 2.87x to 2.47x, with total debt decreasing to $63.936 billion, although interest expenses rose to 7.1% of revenue [1] Historical Context - Deere has previously navigated challenging dividend situations, maintaining dividends even when free cash flow coverage dropped to 0.69x in fiscal 2022 [1] - The current free cash flow coverage of 1.88x is significantly better than past crisis levels [1] Valuation Perspective - Deere's stock trades at a trailing P/E of 33x and a forward P/E of 37x, reflecting investor expectations of future agricultural recovery [1] - The current dividend yield of 1.09% is below the industrial sector average, indicating that the stock may be more suitable for total-return investors rather than those seeking immediate income [1]

Core Viewpoint - Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) has shown significant stock performance with a 28% increase over the past year and a 31% increase year-to-date, despite a challenging financial outlook [1]. Financial Performance - In the fiscal first quarter, Deere reported a profit of $869 million, reflecting a 50% decrease compared to the previous year [1]. - The company also reported $8.5 billion in net income and revenue, indicating a 30% annual decline [1]. - Previous financial struggles were noted, particularly in the fourth quarter, where tariff pressures were expected to continue affecting margins [1]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Jefferies raised Deere's share price target to $475 from $440 while maintaining a Hold rating, emphasizing the firm's growth strategy reliant on services [1]. - BMO Capital maintained a Market Perform rating with a price target of $460, praising the company's growth targets [1]. Market Sentiment - Jim Cramer expressed a positive sentiment regarding Deere's quarter, indicating confidence in the company's performance despite the financial challenges [2][4].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The industrial sector is experiencing growth driven by increased demand for infrastructure, particularly in semiconductors, data centers, and aerospace, supported by rising U.S. defense spending [1] - The manufacturing sector is showing signs of recovery, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 52.6, indicating expansion and the fastest growth in new orders since 2022 [3] - The industrial sector is benefiting from long-term tailwinds such as lower interest rates, a rebounding manufacturing cycle, and the adoption of agentic AI [6] Group 2: Company Performances - Illinois Tool Works operates with an 80/20 business model across seven divisions, focusing on high-value clients to mitigate cyclical risks [7] - Honeywell plans to spin off its Aerospace division to concentrate on industrial automation, with the split expected to be completed by Q3 2026 [9] - Deere and Company has transformed into a tech-oriented firm with high-margin revenue from automated farming equipment, reporting a 14% year-over-year revenue increase to $12.39 billion [12][13] Group 3: Stock Performance - The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund has gained nearly 13% year-to-date, indicating a breakout in the industrials sector amidst a market rotation away from tech stocks [4] - Illinois Tool Works, Honeywell, and Deere are all hitting new all-time highs, reflecting positive market sentiment and optimistic forecasts for 2026 [5] - Deere's stock has reached a new all-time high, driven by strong technical trends and investor confidence despite potential tariff headwinds [15]

Core Insights - Deere (DE) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.92 per share, reflecting a decline of 39.8% year-over-year, while revenues are forecasted to reach $7.6 billion, an increase of 11.7% year-over-year [1] Earnings Estimates - Revisions to earnings estimates are crucial indicators for predicting investor actions regarding the stock, with empirical research showing a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock performance [2] Revenue Projections - Analysts estimate 'Net Sales and Revenues- Production & precision ag net sales' at $3.05 billion, indicating a decrease of 0.6% from the prior-year quarter [4] - 'Net Sales and Revenues- Equipment Operations- Net sales' is projected to reach $7.58 billion, suggesting an increase of 11.3% year-over-year [4] - 'Net Sales and Revenues- Small ag & turf net sales' is expected to be $2.16 billion, reflecting a growth of 23.7% from the year-ago quarter [5] - 'Net Sales and Revenues- Other revenues' is estimated at $223.12 million, indicating a decline of 2.6% from the prior-year quarter [5] Financial Services Revenue - The consensus estimate for 'Net Sales and Revenues- Financial services revenues' stands at $1.38 billion, suggesting a decrease of 5.9% year-over-year [6] - 'Net Sales and Revenues- Financial services- Total' is projected at $1.49 billion, indicating a year-over-year change of -5.6% [6] - 'Net Sales and Revenues- Financial services- Other Income' is expected to reach $118.14 million, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1% from the prior-year quarter [7] - 'Net Sales and Revenues- Financial services- Finance and Interest Income' is estimated at $1.37 billion, indicating a year-over-year decline of 6% [7] Overall Performance - Analysts forecast 'Net Sales and Revenues- Net sales' to reach $7.55 billion, suggesting a change of +10.9% from the year-ago quarter [8] - 'Net Sales and Revenues- Equipment Operations- Finance and interest income' is projected at $109.94 million, indicating a slight decline of 0.1% from the prior-year quarter [8] - The consensus for 'Net Sales and Revenues- Equipment Operations- Other income' is $196.47 million, reflecting a year-over-year change of -2.7% [9] - Over the past month, Deere shares have increased by 16.1%, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's decline of 2% [9]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Deere (DE) despite higher revenues, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Deere is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.92 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 39.8%, while revenues are projected at $7.6 billion, an increase of 11.7% from the previous year [3]. - The earnings report is scheduled for release on February 19, and better-than-expected results could lead to a stock price increase, whereas missing estimates may result in a decline [2]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.07% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a slight bullish sentiment among analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Deere is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +0.13%, suggesting a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive Earnings ESP reading is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 [10]. - Historically, Deere has beaten consensus EPS estimates three out of the last four quarters, which may influence future earnings predictions [14]. Industry Comparison - CNH Industrial (CNH), a competitor in the agricultural equipment sector, is expected to report earnings of $0.11 per share, a year-over-year decline of 26.7%, with revenues projected at $5.02 billion, up 2.9% from the previous year [18]. - CNH's consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged, but a higher Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +4.08%, combined with a Zacks Rank of 4, making predictions of an earnings beat challenging [19].

Core Insights - Deere & Company has announced the five startups selected for its 2026 Startup Collaborator Program, aimed at enhancing interactions with startups that can provide valuable technology for agriculture, construction, and roadbuilding sectors [1][2] Group 1: Program Overview - The Startup Collaborator Program was initiated in 2019 to foster collaboration with startups addressing critical challenges in various industries [2] - The program focuses on technologies that improve precision, productivity, and sustainability for customers through innovations such as real-time equipment insights, AI-driven robotics, and digital crop intelligence [2][3] Group 2: Participating Startups - The 2026 cohort includes five startups: AIRS ML, IoTag, resonAg, TorqueAGI, and Aerobotics, each bringing complementary technologies in monitoring, sensing, AI, robotics, and data-driven insights [3][4] - AIRS ML specializes in on-device intelligence for real-time monitoring and predictive maintenance [4] - IoTag offers a telematics solution that optimizes performance across mixed fleets for agricultural and construction customers [4] - resonAg focuses on advanced soil sensing systems for precision agriculture, adapting technologies from other sectors [4] - TorqueAGI is developing an AI foundation model for enterprise robots capable of real-world reasoning and autonomy [4] - Aerobotics aids the fruit industry in making sustainable farming decisions using drone imagery and AI for yield estimation and operational optimization [4]