Core Thesis - Dole plc is viewed positively despite a recent 10% decline in share price due to a secondary offering, which is seen as a technical overhang rather than a reflection of the company's fundamentals [2][3][4] Company Performance - Dole plc's share price was $13.06 as of October 15th, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 11.14 and 7.63 respectively [1] - The recent decline in share price followed the announcement of a secondary offering at $13.25, a discount from the previous closing price of $14.70 [2] - The company remains profitable and stable, trading at approximately 6x EV/EBITDA and under 10x free cash flow, indicating solid value for investors [4] Ownership Structure - The decline in share price is attributed to the estate of David Murdock, a 13% legacy shareholder, who passed away, leading to a tax-efficient divestment by his heirs [2][3] - The McCann family, which leads Dole and owns 7.7% of the equity, has not sold any shares, indicating confidence in the company's long-term outlook [3] Market Sentiment - The market's reaction to the secondary offering appears to be sentiment-driven, typical of "fake insider" selling events that often lead to short-term mispricing [3] - A recovery towards pre-announcement levels around $14.70 is anticipated as selling pressure diminishes [4] Investment Opportunity - The removal of a large legacy shareholder is expected to simplify Dole's ownership structure and broaden its potential investor base, enhancing liquidity and institutional participation [4] - InformationOk4114 emphasizes Dole plc's undervalued position and temporary market mispricing, similar to a previous bullish thesis on Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. [5]

DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dole plc (NYSE: DOLE) will announce its financial results for the third quarter of 2025 on Monday, November 10, 2025, prior to the market opening. The company's management will host a webcast on the same day at 08:00 a.m. Eastern Time. A presentation to accompany the discussion will be uploaded to the company website along with a press release and other supplemental financial information. The live webcast and a replay after the event can be accessed at www.doleplc.com/i. ...

Core Insights - The launch of DOLE® Colada Royale™ Pineapple introduces a new variety of pineapple that is conventionally bred to provide flavors reminiscent of coconut and piña colada [1] Company Overview - DOLE® is expanding its product line with the introduction of a unique pineapple variety aimed at enhancing consumer experience through innovative flavor profiles [1]

Industry Overview - The Zacks Agriculture – Operations industry is facing persistent challenges such as volatile commodity prices, rising input costs, trade uncertainties, and increasing operational expenses, which are squeezing margins and disrupting productivity [2][12] - Despite these headwinds, the sector is expected to benefit from innovation and growing consumer demand for health-focused products, particularly in alternative proteins and organic farming practices [3][10][11] Market Projections - The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects agricultural exports to reach $173 billion for fiscal 2025, an increase of $2.5 billion from previous forecasts, driven by stronger grain and feed exports [7] - Grain and feed exports are expected to be $39.2 billion, up $1.3 billion, primarily due to a $1.2 billion increase in corn exports [8] Company Positioning - Companies like Corteva Inc., Archer Daniels Midland Company, Dole plc, and Mission Produce Inc. are well-positioned to capitalize on evolving trends in the agriculture sector [4] - Corteva is focusing on innovation and has a strong product pipeline, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings suggesting a growth of 23.7% from the previous year [27] - Mission Produce is leveraging its integrated sales and sourcing operations to optimize margins, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 earnings showing a 13.6% increase [32] - Archer Daniels is benefiting from strong demand in its Nutrition segment, although its earnings estimates suggest declines of 15.2% from the previous year [37] - Dole is expected to gain from improved logistical efficiencies and a healthier supply-demand balance, despite a projected decline of 18.9% in earnings for 2025 [40] Industry Performance - The Zacks Agriculture – Operations industry has underperformed compared to the broader Zacks Consumer Staples sector and the S&P 500, with a collective decline of 8% over the past year [17] - The industry is currently ranked 158 within the Zacks Industry Rank, placing it in the bottom 36% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating dull near-term prospects [14][15] Valuation Metrics - The agriculture – Operations industry is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.21X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 23.36X and the sector's 16.51X [19]

Industry Overview - The Zacks Agriculture – Operations industry is experiencing persistent challenges such as volatile commodity prices, rising input costs, trade uncertainties, and increasing operational expenses, which are squeezing margins and disrupting productivity [1][6][10] - The industry includes companies involved in the production, transportation, storage, processing, and distribution of agricultural commodities, as well as those engaged in dairy operations and food ingredient development [3] Future Growth Factors - The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects agricultural exports to reach $173 billion for fiscal 2025, driven by stronger grain and feed exports, particularly corn, which is expected to increase by $1.2 billion [4] - The industry is benefiting from rising consumer demand for healthier food options, leading to a shift towards organic farming practices and innovations in food processing and grain-handling techniques [5] Cost Pressures - Agricultural companies are facing elevated costs due to fluctuating commodity prices and inflation-driven input increases, which are narrowing profit margins [6][7] - Companies are managing higher selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses, which may continue to impact profitability [7] Industry Performance - The Zacks Agriculture – Operations industry ranks 158, placing it in the bottom 36% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating dull near-term prospects [8][9] - Over the past year, the industry has underperformed compared to the Zacks Consumer Staples sector and the S&P 500, with a collective decline of 8% [11] Valuation Metrics - The industry is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.21X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 23.36X and the sector's 16.51X [14] Notable Companies - **Corteva Inc. (CTVA)**: Positioned for above-market growth with a strong product pipeline and innovation focus, expected to see 2025 earnings growth of 23.7% [17][18] - **Mission Produce Inc. (AVO)**: Engaged in sourcing and distributing avocados and other fruits, with a projected earnings growth of 12.1% for fiscal 2025 [20][22] - **Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM)**: Focused on nutrition and sustainable materials, with a stable performance in its Nutrition segment, but facing declines in overall earnings [25][26] - **Dole plc (DOLE)**: A leader in fresh produce, benefiting from improved logistical efficiencies, though projected earnings for 2025 suggest a decline of 18.9% [29][30]

Core Thesis - Dole plc is viewed positively due to its stable cash-generative business model and the recent secondary offering, which is seen as a liquidity-driven move rather than a sign of fundamental weakness [2][4]. Financial Performance - Dole's current estimates indicate an EBITDA of approximately $385 million, interest expense of $67 million, and maintenance capital expenditure of $100 million, resulting in roughly $170 million of free cash flow [3]. - The company has a market capitalization of around $1.2 billion and net debt of $800 million, leading to an enterprise value near $2 billion, which implies a valuation of 5.4x EBITDA and 7.5x P/FCF, significantly lower than peers like Fresh Del Monte (7.8x EBITDA) and Tyson Foods (8x EBITDA) [3]. Secondary Offering - Dole is proceeding with a $164 million secondary offering, representing 11.3% of shares outstanding, primarily expected to be absorbed by long-only investors, which may provide price support and potentially restore the stock above $14 [2][3]. Market Position and Potential - With the exit of the Murdock estate, the overhang on Dole shares is lifted, allowing for a strategic review, including potential sale or delisting [4]. - The stock has historically traded between $10 and $15, and currently offers upside potential, with average analyst price targets approximately 34% above the offering price [4]. Investment Sentiment - The overall sentiment around Dole is bullish, with multiple potential catalysts for revaluation, presenting a compelling risk/reward scenario as it trades at a substantial discount to its intrinsic value [4][5].

Core Insights - Mission Produce, Inc. (AVO) and Dole plc (DOLE) are leading players in the fresh produce market, each with distinct strategies and market focuses [1][3] - Mission Produce specializes in avocados, utilizing vertical integration and distribution networks, while Dole offers a diversified portfolio across various produce categories [2][8] Group 1: Mission Produce (AVO) - Mission Produce reported record revenues of $357.7 million in Q3 fiscal 2025, a 10% increase year-over-year, driven by a 10% rise in avocado volumes [4][29] - The company is expanding into adjacent categories like mangoes and blueberries, with blueberry production set to grow to over 1,000 hectares [5] - European sales surged by 37% in Q3, aided by the success of its U.K. facility, while investments in Asia are enhancing market access [6] - AVO maintains a lean balance sheet with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio near 1X, allowing for further investments [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AVO's fiscal 2025 sales indicates a year-over-year growth of 12.1%, although EPS is expected to decline by 9.5% [13] Group 2: Dole plc (DOLE) - Dole generated $2.4 billion in revenues in Q2 2025, reflecting a 14.3% year-over-year increase, supported by strong demand for bananas, pineapples, and citrus [9][10] - The company streamlined operations by divesting its Fresh Vegetables division, focusing on core segments that delivered $72.7 million in adjusted EBITDA [10][12] - Dole's Diversified EMEA and Diversified Americas segments achieved EBITDA growth of 15% and 27%, respectively, highlighting its broad market reach [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dole's fiscal 2025 sales suggests a year-over-year growth of 7%, but EPS is projected to decline by 18.9% [17] Group 3: Valuation and Performance Comparison - AVO trades at a forward P/E of 25.08X, while DOLE trades at a lower multiple of 10.42X, indicating a premium for AVO due to its growth profile [23][24] - Year-to-date, DOLE's stock performance has outpaced AVO, with a total return of 3.3% compared to AVO's decline of 15.2% [19] - AVO's valuation reflects its focused strategy and growth potential, while DOLE's lower multiple may attract value-oriented investors seeking stability [26][29]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Group revenue increased by 14.3% to $2.4 billion, and adjusted EBITDA rose by 9.3% to $137 million [4][12] - Adjusted net income was $53 million, with adjusted diluted EPS at $0.55, reflecting a 12% growth compared to the prior year [5][14] - Operating income increased by 20% to $103 million, driven by higher revenue and gross profit [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fresh Fruit segment achieved adjusted EBITDA of $72.7 million, with strong volume growth in bananas and pineapples, although constrained by higher sourcing costs due to tropical storm Sarah [6][14] - Diversified EMEA segment saw adjusted EBITDA increase by approximately 15% to $49 million, driven by strong revenue growth in key markets [9][10] - Diversified Americas segment reported revenue growth of 8.5%, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 27%, primarily due to strong performance in Southern Hemisphere exports [11][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In North America, strong volume growth was noted in bananas and pineapples, with higher pricing contributing to revenue increases [6][14] - The European market experienced higher volumes and pricing across products, supported by tight sourcing conditions and a strengthening euro [7][10] - Industry supply was tighter than anticipated, impacting sourcing costs and overall market dynamics [8][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The sale of the fresh vegetable division was completed, allowing the company to focus on core business activities and strategic priorities [5][21] - The company is optimistic about internal and external development opportunities, particularly in fresh produce and diversified EMEA [54] - The company plans to maintain capital expenditures in line with depreciation and invest in rehabilitation projects following tropical storm damage [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of the diversified business model despite short-term disruptions in the macroeconomic environment [20] - The company has adjusted its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance upwards to a range of $380 million to $390 million [20] - Management acknowledged the complexity of forecasting in the current environment, particularly regarding supply chain disruptions and tariff impacts [28][42] Other Important Information - The company declared a dividend of $0.85 for the second quarter, reflecting its commitment to returning value to shareholders [19] - Cash capital expenditure from continuing operations was $19.4 million, with additional investments in logistics and infrastructure [17][18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Reconciliation of updated EBITDA outlook - Management noted strong performance in 2024 but highlighted challenges from weather issues and sourcing costs impacting EBITDA guidance [24][26] Question: Impact of tariffs on pricing - Management explained the complexity of pricing adjustments due to various factors, including tariffs, sourcing issues, and foreign exchange volatility [30][34] Question: Fresh vegetables disposal and debt repayment - Management confirmed that proceeds from the fresh vegetable division sale would primarily be used for debt repayment and to clarify strategic focus [35][36] Question: Supply outlook beyond Q3 - Management indicated that while supply disruptions would continue into Q4, the industry typically stabilizes quickly [41][43] Question: Discussions on tariff exclusions - Management stated that they believe in the benefits of international trade and have seen some positive discussions regarding tariff exemptions for products not grown in the U.S. [44][46] Question: Future development opportunities - Management highlighted ongoing evaluations of acquisition opportunities and internal projects across various regions [52][54]

Core Insights - Dole reported quarterly earnings of $0.55 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.47 per share, and showing an increase from $0.49 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of +17.02% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $2.43 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10.83% and up from $2.12 billion year-over-year [2] - Dole's stock has increased by approximately 8.1% since the beginning of the year, compared to the S&P 500's gain of 8.6% [3] Earnings Outlook - The future performance of Dole's stock will largely depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and the company's earnings outlook [3][4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.25 on revenues of $2.13 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.26 on revenues of $8.63 billion [7] Industry Context - The Agriculture - Operations industry, to which Dole belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 23% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges ahead [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can impact Dole's stock performance [5][6]

Q2'25 Financial Highlights - Revenue reached $2.4 billion, a 14% increase LFL(Like-for-like) [10] - Adjusted EBITDA was $137 million, up 12% LFL [10] - Adjusted Diluted EPS stood at $0.55, reflecting a 9% increase [10] Segment Performance - Fresh Fruit revenue increased by 14.2% to $972 million [32, 35], with Adjusted EBITDA up by 3% to $72.7 million [32, 35] - Diversified Fresh Produce – EMEA saw a revenue increase of 16.5% to $1.101 billion [37, 40], with Adjusted EBITDA up 14.7% to $49 million [37, 40] - Diversified Fresh Produce – Americas & ROW experienced an 8.5% increase in revenue to $386 million [42, 45], and Adjusted EBITDA increased by 27% to $15.4 million [42, 45] Capital Allocation and Debt - Cash CAPEX for continuing operations was $(19.4) million in Q2'25 and $(72.2) million in H1'25 [46] - Free Cash Flow from continuing operations was $(1.0) million in Q2'25 and $(132.6) million in H1'25 [46] - Net Debt stood at $(788.8) million with a Net Leverage of 2.0x as of June 30, 2025 [47] FY'25 Outlook - The company anticipates Adjusted EBITDA for continuing operations to be approximately $380 - $390 million [51] - Maintenance CAPEX for continuing operations is projected to be around $100 million [51] - Interest expense is expected to be approximately $67 million [51]