Market Overview - The S&P 500 Index is down -0.17%, while the Dow Jones Industrials Index is up +0.77%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is down -0.80% [1] - Weakness in chipmakers, particularly Nvidia, which is down more than -2%, is impacting the broader market due to regulatory actions from China's Cyberspace Administration [2][11] - The overall market is negatively affected by the decline in major technology stocks, with Amazon, Tesla, and Meta Platforms all down more than -1% [12] Economic Indicators - US housing news showed weaker-than-expected results, with August housing starts falling -8.5% month-over-month to 1.307 million, below expectations of 1.365 million [3] - Building permits also fell unexpectedly by -3.7% month-over-month to a 5.25-year low of 1.312 million, against expectations of an increase [3] - MBA mortgage applications rose +29.7% in the week ended September 12, with refinancing applications up +57.7% [4] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve approved a quarter-percentage-point rate cut and indicated two additional cuts are expected before the end of the year due to concerns over the labor market [1][5] - The market anticipates a total of about 70 basis points in rate cuts by year-end, with a focus on the Fed's new economic forecasts [5] Company-Specific Developments - Uber Technologies is down more than -4% following insider selling by CEO Khosrowshahi, who sold $28.6 million in shares [13] - Manchester United reported a Q4 loss and cut its 2026 revenue outlook, leading to a decline of more than -6% in its stock [12] - Roivant Sciences is up more than +12% after its drug met primary endpoints in a Phase 3 trial [14] - Workday is up more than +8% after an upgrade from Guggenheim Securities [14] - Walmart is up more than +2% following a price target increase from Bank of America [15]

Group 1 - LinkedIn has partnered with Duolingo to allow users to display their Duolingo Score on their LinkedIn profiles, enhancing the credibility of language skills [2] - The integration aims to provide recruiters with more reliable indicators of a candidate's language fluency, moving beyond self-declared skills [2] - The Duolingo score will automatically update on LinkedIn as users improve their language skills, ensuring profiles reflect current capabilities [2] Group 2 - LinkedIn is introducing AI-powered interview preparation tools for job seekers, offering custom job interview simulations based on job descriptions [3] - This feature aims to help candidates prepare for likely interview questions, reduce anxiety, and identify areas for improvement [4] - The interview preparation option is currently being rolled out to LinkedIn Premium subscribers, providing additional resources for career advancement [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Trade Desk Inc. and Duolingo Inc. have experienced significant declines in their stock prices, raising questions about their investment potential amidst a generally bullish market environment [1][3]. Group 1: The Trade Desk Inc. (TTD) - The Trade Desk's stock has fallen over 50% since its Q2 earnings report in August, closing around $45, down from a high of $141.53 [3][4]. - Concerns about slowing growth have led to bearish analyst updates, including a downgrade from Morgan Stanley, which highlighted doubts about the company's ability to sustain previous growth rates [4][7]. - Despite the negative sentiment, some analysts, like those at Needham, maintain a Buy rating with a price target of $80, suggesting a potential upside of nearly 80% from current levels [7]. Group 2: Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) - Duolingo's stock has also halved since early June, with current trading around $278.40, down from a 52-week high of $544.93 [8]. - The decline is attributed to fears of slowing engagement growth and competition from AI-powered rivals, although some analysts, like KeyCorp, have upgraded the stock to Overweight with a price target of $460, citing ongoing growth drivers [9][10]. - Zacks Research recently upgraded Duolingo to a Strong Buy, indicating a more favorable technical position compared to The Trade Desk, with an RSI of around 40 [10].

Duolingo 2025 Investor Day Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Duolingo (NasdaqGS:DUOL) - **Event**: 2025 Investor Day - **Date**: September 16, 2025 Key Points Industry and Market Position - Duolingo aims to provide access to language education for everyone, regardless of financial status, addressing educational inequality [3][2] - Over 130 million active learners on Duolingo, with 90% learning for free [3] - Duolingo is used globally, with the most commonly learned language being English in most countries [4][5] Educational Approach and Features - Introduction of the **Duolingo Score**, a numerical representation of language proficiency ranging from 0 to 160 [8][9] - The score correlates with the Common European Framework of Reference (CEFR), with specific ranges indicating different proficiency levels [10][11][12][13] - Courses are designed to help learners reach a score of 130, enabling them to qualify for knowledge jobs in the language learned [14][15] - Learning duration to reach various scores: - Score 30: 93 hours - Score 60: 192 hours - Score 100: 397 hours - Score 130: 550 hours [16][18] Learning Tools and Engagement - Features like leaderboards and friend streaks are implemented to motivate learners [19] - Different lesson types evolve with the learner's score, including adventures, Duo Radio, and stories [20][21][24] - Research indicates that Duolingo's teaching effectiveness has improved over time, with learners achieving better results in recent years [26][28] Certification and Partnerships - The **Duolingo English Test** offers a certified score for language proficiency, accepted by 99 of the top 100 U.S. universities [30] - Aiming for the Duolingo Score to become a global standard for language proficiency, with integration into platforms like LinkedIn [49][52] New Features and Innovations - Introduction of **video call** feature with a conversational agent named Lily, designed to provide real-time speaking practice [34][35] - Ongoing enhancements to the video call experience, including personalized support and feedback mechanisms [41][43] - Launch of **Duolingo Math**, expanding the platform's educational offerings beyond language learning [72] Chess Course Launch - Duolingo has introduced a chess course, emphasizing strategic thinking and problem-solving skills [80][87] - The course includes lessons, mini matches, and a capstone experience against a character named Oscar [90][92] User Testimonials and Impact - Personal stories highlight the transformative impact of Duolingo on learners' lives, including success in higher education and career opportunities [74][76][78] Additional Insights - The focus on gamification and personalization in learning experiences is a key strategy for maintaining user engagement [43][44] - Continuous A/B testing is employed to refine app features and improve user experience based on data-driven insights [64][66][70] This summary encapsulates the core themes and developments discussed during the Duolingo 2025 Investor Day, highlighting the company's commitment to accessible education and innovative learning solutions.

Group 1 - Duolingo's stock has decreased by 22.8% in less than a month, from $369.19 on August 18, 2025, to $285.11 currently, due to concerns over slowing active user growth and competition from AI-driven alternatives like Google's language tools and Apple's real-time translation feature in AirPods [1][2][4] - Historically, Duolingo has delivered a median return of 87% over one year and has shown a peak return of 87% after declines greater than 30% within 30 days [4][6] - The company offers a language-learning platform with courses in 40 languages, primarily targeting users in the U.S. and China [4] Group 2 - Duolingo has encountered five instances since January 1, 2010, where the stock experienced a dip of 30% or more within 30 days [5][6] - The median peak return following a dip event is 87%, with a median duration of 356 days to reach that peak [6] - Financial quality checks indicate that revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and financial stability are essential to assess the business condition during dips [7]

Core Insights - Duolingo announced significant product updates at Duocon 2025, including integration of Duolingo Score with LinkedIn and expansion of the Duolingo Chess course [1][2] - The integration allows users to showcase their language skills on LinkedIn, enhancing the connection between language proficiency and professional opportunities [2] - The Duolingo Chess course has gained popularity since its iOS launch in June 2025, now expanding to Android with new features like player-versus-player mode [3][8] Product Updates - The Duolingo Score can now be linked to LinkedIn profiles, providing a real-time reflection of language skills [2] - Duolingo Chess is now available on Android, featuring live coaching and a new PvP mode for competitive learning [3][8] - The company emphasizes the use of AI and experimentation to enhance learning experiences, including improvements to its AI-powered Video Call feature [4][5] Learning Experience Enhancements - The AI-driven Video Call feature is now available for nine popular courses, offering real-time feedback and personalized interactions [5] - Duolingo employs rigorous A/B testing to refine its product offerings, ensuring data-informed decisions that enhance user engagement and learning outcomes [6] Company Overview - Duolingo is the leading mobile learning platform, offering a wide range of courses in languages, math, music, and chess, with over 250 language courses available [7] - The company's mission is to provide the best education globally and make it universally accessible [7]

Group 1 - Duolingo Inc. reported a strong performance with sales increasing to $252 million from $178 million year-over-year, and net income growing to $45 million from $24 million in the same period [2] - The company achieved an EPS of $0.91, exceeding the expected $0.55 [2] - Duolingo's Co-Founder and CEO emphasized record profitability and strong top-line growth, leading to an increase in full-year guidance [3] Group 2 - Wells Fargo initiated coverage of Duolingo with an Underweight rating and a price target of $239, citing concerns over user growth issues and downside risk in 2027 estimates [1][3] - Duolingo is investing in its core business and new areas like Chess, Math, and Music, which are expected to drive long-term growth [3] - The company operates as a mobile learning platform offering courses in 40 different languages through its app [4]

Market Overview - The AI-driven bull run of 2023 and 2024 has continued into 2025, with Wall Street maintaining upward momentum despite high valuations in U.S. technology stocks [1] - Investors remain undeterred by geopolitical conflicts, restrictive trade policies, and signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market, continuing to invest in equities [2] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 100% probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the Fed, which is expected to benefit stock investors [2] Company Highlights Assurant Inc. (AIZ) - Assurant is focused on both inorganic and organic growth strategies, expecting adjusted EBITDA to increase modestly in 2025 [5] - The company aims to deploy capital for business growth and shareholder returns, supported by a lower debt level and improved leverage ratio [6] - AIZ has an expected revenue growth rate of 5.7% and earnings growth rate of 5.8% for the current year, with a short-term price target indicating a maximum upside of 19.7% from the last closing price of $213.01 [9] DocuSign Inc. (DOCU) - DocuSign's strength lies in its subscription revenues, which have driven growth over the past three years [10] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 7% and earnings growth rate of 2.5% for the current year, with a maximum upside of 54.6% from the last closing price of $80.19 [12] Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) - Duolingo operates a mobile learning platform and utilizes AI applications to enhance the learning experience [13][14] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 36.2% and earnings growth rate of 66% for the current year, with a maximum upside of 94.9% from the last closing price of $307.91 [14][15] West Pharmaceutical Services Inc. (WST) - West Pharmaceutical Services has seen improvement in organic revenues, particularly in its Proprietary Products segment [16] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 4.7% and earnings growth rate of -0.2% for the current year, with a maximum upside of 40% from the last closing price of $253.50 [19] Zebra Technologies Corp. (ZBRA) - Zebra Technologies is benefiting from increased sales in mobile computing and data capture solutions, as well as RFID products [20] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 6.3% and earnings growth rate of 15.9% for the current year, with a maximum upside of 31.8% from the last closing price of $312.65 [21][22]

Group 1 - Duolingo, Inc. (NASDAQ:DUOL) is a mobile learning platform offering courses in multiple languages and digital English proficiency assessments [2] - Recent earnings estimates were beaten, but concerns arise regarding rising AI competition, user dissatisfaction, and Apple's new live translation feature [1] - Jim Cramer expressed that Duolingo is too strong a company to short, suggesting selling instead due to competition from Apple's translation capabilities [1] Group 2 - There is potential for Duolingo as an investment, but certain AI stocks are considered to have greater upside potential and less downside risk [3]

Core Insights - Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) has experienced a significant decline of 35% over the past three months, contrasting sharply with a 26% increase in the broader industry and an 11% rise in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [1][2] - Competitors Coursera (COUR) and Chegg (CHGG) have seen positive performance, with Coursera up 31% and Chegg up 18.5% in the same period, indicating a shift in investor sentiment within the online learning sector [2] - Duolingo's stock price closed at $309.3, which is 43% below its 52-week high of $251.3, raising questions about its potential for recovery or further decline [3] AI and Product Development - Duolingo is leveraging artificial intelligence and proprietary learner data to create a competitive advantage, embedding AI into its product roadmap and financials [3] - The company launched 148 new language courses in April, marking its largest expansion ever, enabled by AI efficiencies that allowed for rapid content development [6] - AI-related cost reductions have led to a sequential gross margin increase of 130 basis points to 72.4%, demonstrating that innovation is enhancing profitability [6] Revenue Diversification and Growth - Duolingo is diversifying its revenue streams beyond language learning subscriptions, successfully increasing subscription ARPU by 6% year-over-year through a mix-shift strategy [7] - The launch of new subjects like chess and music has shown early traction, expanding the addressable market and improving user retention [8] - Management projects FY 2025 revenues between $1.011 billion and $1.019 billion, with adjusted EBITDA margins approaching 29% [9] Financial Performance and Outlook - Duolingo's return on equity (ROE) stands at 13.3%, significantly above the industry average of 6.7%, indicating effective investment in profitable areas [10] - The company's current ratio is 2.81, well above the industry's 1.78, suggesting strong liquidity and the ability to meet short-term obligations [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Duolingo's 2025 earnings is $3.12, reflecting a 66% year-over-year increase, with sales expected to grow 36% in 2025 and 26% in 2026 [12][14] Analyst Confidence and Investment Potential - Recent upward revisions in earnings estimates indicate strong analyst confidence, with a 7.6% increase in the 2025 earnings estimate over the past 60 days [17] - Duolingo's innovative approach and market expansion strategies present a compelling buy opportunity, with strong liquidity and sustained growth prospects [18] - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), suggesting positive market sentiment [19]