Core Insights - Colombian state-run energy company Ecopetrol plans to invest between 22 trillion and 27 trillion pesos, equivalent to approximately $5.88 billion to $7.21 billion, in 2026 [1] Investment Plans - The investment range specified by Ecopetrol is between 22 trillion pesos and 27 trillion pesos [1] - The dollar equivalent of the investment is projected to be between $5.88 billion and $7.21 billion [1]

Core Insights - Ecopetrol S.A. (NYSE:EC) experienced a 5.46% decline in share price from November 19 to November 26, 2025, ranking among the energy stocks that lost the most during that week [1] - The company reported a 30% year-over-year decrease in net profit for Q3, attributed to weaker sales volumes and lower crude prices [2] - Total production volume for the quarter decreased by 0.4% year-over-year to 751 mboed, although it remained close to the top of the annual guidance range [3] Production and Sales Performance - Key production fields in Colombia, such as Caño Sur and CPO-09, along with contributions from the Permian in the United States, supported production levels [3] - Local sales volumes fell by 2.9% year-over-year, while international sales volumes dropped by 12.8% compared to the previous year, primarily due to increased refinery throughput and changes in logistics chain inventories [3] Market Conditions - Global crude oil prices are currently at a one-month low, influenced by potential peace negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which could lead to increased supply from Russian oil [4]

Core Insights - A major oil producer is currently trading at a valuation that suggests it may cease to exist within a decade, which is an unusual situation for such companies [1] - The company is also noted for paying a significant dividend, which adds to the complexity of its valuation [1] Group 1 - The valuation implies a potential existential risk for the oil producer, indicating market skepticism about its long-term viability [1] - The rarity of such a situation highlights the unique challenges faced by major oil producers in the current economic environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - Colombian state-run energy company Ecopetrol has issued a warning regarding potential risks to natural gas supply in the northern and central regions of Colombia due to a roadblock at its Guajira field [1] Company Summary - Ecopetrol is currently facing challenges in maintaining natural gas supply due to an ongoing roadblock affecting operations at the Guajira field [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment potential of Ecopetrol, highlighting its 23% dividend yield and improving outlook as of April 2023, indicating significant changes since then [1]. Group 1 - Ecopetrol's dividend yield was noted to be 23% in April 2023, suggesting a strong return for investors [1]. - The article emphasizes the importance of ongoing research and updates for investors interested in Latin American markets, particularly in Colombia [1]. Group 2 - The author, Ian Bezek, has extensive experience in Latin American markets and focuses on high-quality compounders and growth stocks [1]. - The investment group led by Ian offers various features including market updates, trade alerts, and direct access to the author for insights [1].

Core Points - Ecopetrol S.A. appointed Mr. Juan Carlos Hurtado Parra as Alternate Legal and Commercial Representative on November 18, 2025 [1] - Ecopetrol is the largest company in Colombia and a major integrated energy player in the Americas, employing over 19,000 people [2] - The company is responsible for over 60% of Colombia's hydrocarbon production and holds leading positions in petrochemicals and gas distribution [2] - Ecopetrol acquired 51.4% of ISA's shares, expanding its involvement in energy transmission and real-time systems management [2] - Internationally, Ecopetrol has interests in strategic basins in the Americas, including drilling and exploration operations in the U.S., Brazil, and power transmission in Brazil, Chile, Peru, and Bolivia [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an EBITDA of COP 12.3 trillion for the third quarter, with an EBITDA margin of 41% and a net income of COP 2.6 trillion, reflecting a recovery from the previous quarter [28][29] - Year-to-date investment reached nearly $4.2 billion, representing 72% of the annual target [8][37] - Cumulative EBITDA for the year reached COP 36.7 trillion, demonstrating strong adaptability despite external pressures [29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The exploration and production segment achieved a total accumulated production of 751,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, aligning with the target range of 740,000-750,000 [12][29] - The refining segment saw throughput rebound to approximately 429,000 barrels per day, marking the second highest quarterly level in its history [16][17] - The midstream segment transported an average of 1,118,000 barrels per day, reflecting a 1% increase compared to the third quarter of 2024 [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average production for the year was 751,000 barrels per day, supported by strong contributions from domestic and international operations [4][12] - The company reported a 15% decline in Brent prices year to date, impacting overall financial performance [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on reinforcing core business operations, maintaining financial discipline, and advancing strategic projects related to energy transition [4] - A multimodal logistics initiative was launched to enhance export capabilities, with projected annual benefits of $1 million-$2 million [7] - The company is committed to sustainability, having reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 379,000 tons of CO2 equivalent and increased renewable energy capacity to 234 megawatts [8][9] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating market volatility and maintaining operational stability despite external pressures [28] - The company anticipates a challenging price environment in 2026 but remains committed to maintaining low lifting costs and capital discipline [38] - The management emphasized the importance of energy security and the ongoing integration of renewable energy sources [39] Other Important Information - The company achieved ISO 37001 certification, reflecting its commitment to ethical business conduct [9] - The workplace environment index improved from 60 to 68, indicating a focus on employee well-being and sustainable growth [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on the potential sale of the Permian asset - Management clarified that there is no formal instruction or political request to sell the Permian asset, and any decision will be rigorously analyzed by the board [40][42] Question: Impact of a senior management member potentially being on the OFAC list - The company has a robust compliance system in place to monitor risks and ensure operational continuity [43][44][45] Question: Exchange rate impact on operating earnings - A sensitivity analysis indicated that a COP 100 variation in the exchange rate could affect net profit by COP 700 billion, with current rates positively impacting EBITDA [48][52] Question: Government assistance for the Sirius project - The company is working closely with the government to facilitate the Sirius project, with a timetable established for consultations [49][56] Question: Production growth outlook for 2026 amid oil price volatility - Management expects to maintain production levels similar to 2025, with ongoing assessments of the investment plan [65][67] Question: Refining margins and future expectations - The company is focused on improving operational efficiency and maximizing valuable products to enhance refining margins [69][83] Question: Dividend policy amid lower net income - The company plans to maintain its dividend distribution policy within the range of 40% to 60% of distributable profit [86]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an EBITDA of COP 12.3 trillion for the third quarter, with an EBITDA margin of 41% and a net income of COP 2.6 trillion, reflecting a recovery in the refining segment and strict operational expense control [27][28] - Year-to-date investment reached nearly $4.2 billion, representing 72% of the annual target, fully aligned with the strategic roadmap [8][36] - Cumulative EBITDA for the year reached COP 36.7 trillion, demonstrating strong adaptability through a commercial strategy that leveraged favorable product and crude differentials [28][29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The exploration and production segment achieved a total accumulated production of 751,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, in line with the target range of 740,000-750,000 [12][66] - The midstream segment transported an average of 1,118,000 barrels per day, reflecting a 1% increase compared to the third quarter of 2024 [15] - Refining operations reached a throughput of approximately 429,000 barrels per day, marking the second highest quarterly level in the segment's history [16][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 15% decline in Brent prices year-to-date, impacting overall financial performance [27] - The average production from the Permian Basin was reported at 106,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, contributing 14% to the total production [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on reinforcing core business operations, maintaining financial discipline, and advancing strategic projects driven by energy transition and security [4] - A commitment to sustainability is evident, with a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 379,000 tons of CO2 equivalent and an increase in renewable energy capacity to 234 megawatts [8][9] - The company is exploring divestment options for non-priority assets while seeking partnerships to maximize value in higher profitability assets [77][80] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating the current challenging environment, emphasizing the importance of operational and financial stability [27][38] - The company anticipates a more challenging price environment in 2026, focusing on maintaining low lifting costs and strict capital discipline [36][37] Other Important Information - The company has achieved COP 4.1 trillion in efficiencies this year, exceeding its target by 40% [30] - The company received ISO 37001 certification, reflecting its commitment to ethical business conduct and compliance with international anti-bribery standards [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on the potential sale of the Permian asset - Management clarified that there is no formal instruction or political request to sell the Permian asset, and any decision will be rigorously analyzed by the board of directors [41] Question: Risk of a senior management member being on the OFAC list - The company has a robust compliance system in place to monitor risks and ensure operational continuity [42][44] Question: Impact of exchange rate fluctuations - A COP 100 variation in the exchange rate can affect net profit by COP 700 billion, with current rates positively impacting EBITDA [51][52] Question: Government assistance for the Sirius project - The company is working closely with the government to facilitate the Sirius project, with ongoing consultations expected to conclude by July 2026 [54][55] Question: Potential default due to DIAN embargo - The company has taken measures to protect its rights and has been meeting its financial obligations, with no current risk of default [58][60] Question: Production growth outlook for 2026 - The company aims to maintain production levels similar to 2025, despite oil price volatility [66] Question: Refining margins and EBITDA drivers - The improvement in refining margins is attributed to operational efficiency, cost management, and maximizing high-value products [68][82]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an EBITDA of COP 12.3 trillion for the third quarter of 2025, with an EBITDA margin of 41% and a net income of COP 2.6 trillion, reflecting a recovery from the previous quarter [26] - Year-to-date investment reached nearly $4.2 billion, representing 72% of the annual target, fully aligned with the strategic roadmap [6][34] - Cumulative EBITDA for the year reached COP 36.7 trillion, demonstrating strong adaptability through a commercial strategy [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The exploration and production segment achieved a total accumulated production of 751,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, in line with the target range of 740,000-750,000 [11] - The midstream segment transported an average of 1,118,000 barrels per day, reflecting a 1% increase compared to the third quarter of 2024 [13] - Refining operations reached approximately 429,000 barrels per day, marking the second highest quarterly level in the segment's history [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a competitive crude differential enabled by a proactive marketing strategy, capturing value in a low-price environment [5] - The average production for the last nine months was 751,000 barrels per day, placing the company near the top of its annual guidance range [3] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on reinforcing core business operations, maintaining strict financial discipline, and advancing profitable projects driven by energy transition [3] - A multimodal logistics initiative was launched to export solid asphalt monthly, with projected annual benefits ranging from $1 million to $2 million [5] - The company is committed to sustainability, having reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 379,000 tons of CO2 equivalent as of September [6][8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the resilience and discipline in a challenging environment marked by a nearly 15% decline in Brent prices year to date [25] - The company anticipates a more challenging price environment in 2026, focusing on strengthening resilience and competitiveness [35] - Management emphasized the importance of cost optimization, efficiency enhancement, and operational agility to meet financial objectives for 2025 [36] Other Important Information - The company achieved a significant reduction in lifting costs, with total unit costs in the hydrocarbons business line standing at $45.5 per barrel, reflecting a reduction of $1.8 compared to the same period last year [17] - The company has made significant progress in its sustainability agenda, being recognized by the Global Compact Network Colombia for best practices in sustainable development [8] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: Clarification on the potential sale of the Permian asset - Management clarified that there is no interest in divesting the Permian asset, and any decision regarding the portfolio will be rigorously analyzed by the board of directors [37] Question: Risk of a senior management member being on the OFAC list - The company has a robust corporate governance and compliance system in place, continuously monitoring risks and ensuring operational compliance [38][39] Question: Impact of exchange rate fluctuations - Management indicated that a COP 100 variation in the exchange rate could impact net profit by COP 700 billion, with current rates contributing positively to net profit [42][43] Question: Assistance from the national government for the Sirius project - The company is working closely with the government and has established a timetable for consultations to facilitate the Sirius project [45] Question: Potential bond issuance plans - The company is currently working on its financial plan for 2026, which will determine the cash flow available for investments and financing needs [62]

FINANCIAL RESULTS 3Q - 2025 Legal Disclaimer Financial Results This document was prepared by Ecopetrol S.A. (the "Company" or "Ecopetrol") with the purpose of providing the market and interested parties certain financial and other information of the Company. This document may include strategy discussions and forward-looking statements regarding the probable development of Ecopetrol's business. Said projections and statements include references to estimates or expectations of the Company regarding its future ...