When deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold a stock, investors often rely on analyst recommendations. Media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm-employed (or sell-side) analysts often influence a stock's price, but are they really important?Before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage, let's see what these Wall Street heavyweights think about Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) .Ero Copper currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ero Copper reported record copper production in Q4 2024, contributing to cash flow from operations of $60.8 million for the quarter and $145.4 million for the full year [24] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 and the full year were $59.1 million and $216.2 million, respectively [24] - Adjusted net income attributable to owners was $17.4 million in Q4 or $0.17 per diluted share, and $80.4 million for the full year or $0.78 per diluted share [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved commercial production at Tucuma, with production expected to increase in Q2 following improvements in plant reliability and throughput volumes [15][14] - At Caraiba, production is expected to be soft in Q1 due to ongoing development work, with benefits anticipated to emerge over the next several quarters [15][16] - Xavantina is transitioning to a fully mechanized operation, which is expected to impact productivity and costs in the short term [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced increased foreign exchange volatility, particularly with the Brazilian real, leading to realized losses of $5.9 million for Q4 and $8.2 million for the year on foreign exchange hedges [25][26] - The total notional foreign exchange derivative position stood at $390 million, with a weighted average floor and ceiling of BRL5.43 and BRL6.49 per dollar, respectively [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company's near-term strategy includes achieving commercial production at Tucuma, deleveraging the balance sheet, advancing long-term growth initiatives, and initiating returns to shareholders [8][21] - The partnership on the Furnas project is a key long-term growth initiative, with significant drilling and technical work planned [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged challenges at Tucuma, including power outages and material flow constraints, but expressed confidence in the ramp-up and production cadence [12][15] - The company remains focused on deleveraging its balance sheet, targeting a normalized net debt leverage ratio of 1.5 times [20] Other Important Information - The liquidity position remains strong at approximately $90 million at year-end, with pro forma available liquidity at $140.4 million after recent credit facility amendments [27] - The company plans to pursue shareholder returns more proactively once meaningful progress is made on deleveraging [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Are you still experiencing intermittent power outages at Tucuma? - Management confirmed that while some oscillations in power quality remain, improvements have significantly reduced the frequency of power trips [34][36] Question: What is driving the large C1 increase this year? - The increase is attributed to foreign exchange rates, deeper mining contributions, and lower grades across the portfolio [51][56] Question: Can you explain the off-site power solution at Tucuma? - The off-site solution involves capacitors or batteries to stabilize power quality, with no immediate need for on-site generators [63][66] Question: What steps are being taken to ensure contractor performance at Caraiba? - The company is closely monitoring development sufficiency and expects to maintain and increase development rates with the second contractor [88][90] Question: What form will shareholder returns take? - Discussions are ongoing, but the focus remains on achieving commercial production and deleveraging before finalizing return strategies [102]

Core Insights - Ero Copper reported fourth-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings per share of 17 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 21 cents, and reflecting a 19% decline year over year [1][7] - The company's revenues for the quarter were $122.5 million, a 5.2% increase from the previous year, but still below the consensus estimate of $130 million [3][7] Financial Performance - Including one-time items, Ero Copper reported a loss of 47 cents per share in Q4 2024, compared to earnings of 37 cents in Q4 2023 [2] - Gross profit increased by 25.3% year over year to $52.4 million, with adjusted EBITDA improving 17.5% to $59 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 48.2% [5] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities generated $145 million, down from $163 million in the previous year [8] Production Metrics - Ero Copper produced 8,566 tons of copper in Q4 2024, down from 11,760 tons in the same quarter of the previous year, with total copper production for 2024 at 35,444 tons, a 19.2% decrease from 2023 [6] - Gold production in Q4 2024 was 8,936 ounces, with total production for the year at 59,222 ounces, consistent with the previous year [6] Cost Analysis - Copper C1 cash costs for Q4 2024 were $1.85, up from $1.75 in Q4 2023, while gold C1 cash costs rose to $744 from $413 [4] - All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) for Q4 2024 were $1,691, significantly higher than $991 in the same quarter of 2023 [4] Guidance and Future Outlook - For 2025, Ero Copper expects consolidated copper production between 75,000 tons and 85,000 tons, with gold production projected at 50,000-60,000 ounces [9][10] - The company anticipates copper C1 cash costs to range between $1.55 and $1.80 for the year [9] Market Performance - Ero Copper's shares have declined by 25.4% over the past year, contrasting with a 3% growth in the industry [11]

Core Viewpoint - Ero Copper Corp. reported quarterly earnings of $0.17 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.21 per share, representing a -19.05% earnings surprise [1]. Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $122.5 million for the quarter ended December 2024, which was 5.77% below the Zacks Consensus Estimate and an increase from $116.41 million year-over-year [2]. - Over the last four quarters, Ero Copper has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times [2]. Stock Performance - Ero Copper shares have declined approximately 8.3% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's decline of -0.7% [3]. - The current Zacks Rank for Ero Copper is 5 (Strong Sell), indicating expectations of underperformance in the near future [6]. Earnings Outlook - The consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.14 on revenues of $158 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $2.09 on revenues of $803.78 million [7]. - The trend for estimate revisions ahead of the earnings release was unfavorable, which may impact future stock performance [6]. Industry Context - The Mining - Non Ferrous industry, to which Ero Copper belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 24% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges for stock performance [8].

CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FOR THE YEARS ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2024 AND 2023 Opinion on the Consolidated Financial Statements We have audited the accompanying consolidated statements of financial position of Ero Copper Corp. and subsidiaries (the Company) as of December 31, 2024 and 2023, the related consolidated statements of operations and comprehensive (loss) income, cash flow and changes in shareholders' equity for each of the years in the two-year period ended December 31, 2024, and the related not ...

Core Insights - Ero Copper Corp. reported strong operational and financial results for Q4 and full year 2024, with record copper production and improved cash flow [6][13][14] - The company anticipates a transformative year in 2025, driven by the Tucumã Operation, which is expected to significantly enhance copper production and cash flow [4][5] Financial Highlights - Q4 2024 revenues reached $122.5 million, with a full-year total of $470.3 million, up from $427.5 million in 2023 [13] - The company reported a net loss of $48.9 million for Q4 2024 and $68.5 million for the full year, compared to a net income of $94.3 million in 2023 [13] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 was $59.1 million, with a full-year adjusted EBITDA of $216.2 million, reflecting strong operational performance [13][31] Production and Cost Metrics - Consolidated copper production for Q4 2024 was a record 12,883 tonnes, contributing to a full-year total of 40,600 tonnes [6][11] - C1 cash costs for copper production were $1.85 per pound in Q4 and $1.97 per pound for the full year [6][11] - Gold production for Q4 2024 was 8,936 ounces, with full-year production at 57,210 ounces, and C1 cash costs of $744 per ounce for Q4 and $493 per ounce for the full year [6][11][13] Operational Updates - The company has completed significant maintenance work at the Tucumã Operation, leading to improved plant throughput and copper production consistency [4][5] - The ramp-up to commercial production at Tucumã is expected to be completed in H1 2025, with a focus on increasing operational flexibility at Caraíba [14] 2025 Guidance - Ero Copper expects consolidated copper production in 2025 to range between 75,000 to 85,000 tonnes, with a focus on achieving commercial production at Tucumã [14][18] - C1 cash cost guidance for copper is set at $1.55 to $1.80 per pound, with specific guidance for Caraíba and Tucumã operations [15][18] - Capital expenditures for 2025 are projected to decrease to $230 to $270 million, primarily due to reduced spending at the Tucumã Operation following construction completion [19][20]

Group 1: Company Performance - Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) closed at $13.17, with a +1.15% movement compared to the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500 which lost 0.27% [1] - The stock has fallen by 6.67% in the past month, underperforming the Basic Materials sector's gain of 7.68% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.27% [1] Group 2: Upcoming Earnings - Ero Copper Corp. is set to disclose its earnings on March 6, 2025, with expected earnings of $0.35 per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 66.67% [2] - The consensus estimate predicts revenue of $177 million, reflecting a 52.05% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year [2] Group 3: Analyst Estimates and Rankings - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Ero Copper Corp. suggest optimism about the company's business outlook [3] - The Zacks Rank system currently rates Ero Copper Corp. as 5 (Strong Sell), with the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate having moved 18.86% lower over the past month [5] Group 4: Valuation Metrics - Ero Copper Corp. has a Forward P/E ratio of 5.06, which is a discount compared to the industry's average Forward P/E of 19.91 [6] - The Mining - Non Ferrous industry, part of the Basic Materials sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 160, placing it in the bottom 37% of all industries [6]

Core Viewpoint - Ero Copper Corp. reported significant achievements in 2024, including record copper production and operational advancements, while providing optimistic guidance for 2025 and a three-year production outlook [6][12][11]. 2024 Production Results - Consolidated copper production for 2024 reached 40,600 tonnes, with a record quarterly production of 12,883 tonnes in Q4 [6][8]. - The Caraíba Operations produced 35,444 tonnes of copper in concentrate, meeting revised production guidance [6][9]. - The Tucumã Operation produced 5,156 tonnes of copper in concentrate for the year, which was below the revised guidance [6][9]. - Gold production at the Xavantina Operations totaled 57,210 ounces, slightly below the increased guidance [6][9]. Amended Revolving Credit Facility - The company amended its senior secured revolving credit facility, increasing commitments from $150 million to $200 million and extending the maturity date to December 2028 [21][22]. 2025 Guidance - Copper production is expected to increase by approximately 85% to 110% year-on-year, reaching between 75,000 and 85,000 tonnes [12][15]. - The Xavantina Operations are projected to produce 50,000 to 60,000 ounces of gold at C1 cash costs between $650 and $800 per ounce [15][16]. Three-Year Production Outlook - Consolidated copper production is anticipated to reach between 85,000 and 95,000 tonnes in 2026 and 2027 [12][14]. - The Xavantina Operations are expected to sustain annual gold production levels of 50,000 to 60,000 ounces through 2027 [13][14]. Capital Expenditure Guidance - Capital expenditures for 2025 are projected to decrease to between $230 million and $270 million, primarily due to reduced spending at the Tucumã Operation [18][20]. - Significant investments at the Caraíba Operations are expected to support growth and infrastructure development [18][20]. Cost Guidance - C1 cash cost guidance for copper production is set between $1.55 and $1.80 per pound, with specific ranges for the Caraíba and Tucumã Operations [15][17]. - The all-in sustaining costs for gold production are expected to range from $1,400 to $1,600 per ounce [16][17].

Group 1 - Ero Copper Corp. will release its fourth quarter and full year 2024 operating and financial results on March 6, 2025, after market close [1] - A conference call to discuss the results is scheduled for March 7, 2025, at 11:30 am Eastern Time [2] - Ero Copper is a high-margin, high-growth copper producer with operations primarily in Brazil [3] Group 2 - The company holds a 99.6% interest in Mineração Caraíba S.A., which operates the Caraíba Operations in Bahia State, Brazil [3] - Ero Copper also owns 97.6% of NX Gold S.A., which operates the Xavantina Operations in Mato Grosso State, Brazil [3] - In July 2024, Ero Copper signed an earn-in agreement with Vale Base Metals for a 60% interest in the Furnas Copper-Gold Project in Pará State, Brazil [3]

Company Performance - Ero Copper Corp. closed at $13.58, down 1.88% from the previous trading session, underperforming the S&P 500 which gained 0.39% [1] - Over the past month, Ero Copper shares have decreased by 1.91%, lagging behind the Basic Materials sector's gain of 7.14% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.7% [1] Upcoming Earnings - Analysts expect Ero Copper to report earnings of $0.47 per share, representing a year-over-year growth of 123.81% [2] - The consensus estimate for revenue is $177 million, which is an increase of 52.05% compared to the prior-year quarter [2] Analyst Estimates - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Ero Copper reflect shifting business dynamics, with positive revisions indicating a favorable outlook on the company's health and profitability [3] Valuation Metrics - Ero Copper is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 4.78, which is significantly lower than the industry's average Forward P/E of 20.16 [6] - The Mining - Non Ferrous industry, part of the Basic Materials sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 164, placing it in the bottom 35% of over 250 industries [6] Zacks Rank - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), currently rates Ero Copper as 5 (Strong Sell) due to a 15.57% downward shift in the consensus EPS estimate over the past month [5]