Group 1 - Expedia forecasts a higher first-quarter adjusted core profit margin, driven by one-time gains and strong demand from business clients, but remains cautious on the full-year outlook [1][2] - The company expects adjusted core profit margin to grow by 3 to 4 percentage points in Q1 2026, compared to a rise of 1.05 percentage points in 2025, but anticipates a slowdown for the full year to a rise of 1 to 1.25 percentage points [3] - Despite a weak margin forecast, Expedia's full-year gross bookings projection of $127 billion to $129 billion exceeds analysts' average estimate of $125.95 billion [4] Group 2 - The B2B segment has seen a 24% increase in gross bookings in Q4, significantly outperforming the 5% growth in the direct-to-consumer unit [4] - Online travel agencies are benefiting from cost-conscious travelers, with a notable increase in partners participating in promotional sales, leading to 30% of Q4 bookings coming from discounted inventory [5] - Expedia's adjusted profit for Q4 was $3.78 per share, up from $2.39 per share a year earlier, surpassing analysts' expectations of $3.36 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Expedia forecasts 2026 gross bookings and revenue to exceed Wall Street expectations, driven by strong demand from business clients [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - Gross bookings for 2026 are expected to be between $127 billion and $129 billion, surpassing analysts' average estimate of $125.95 billion [1] - Annual revenue is projected to be in the range of $15.6 billion to $16 billion, with the midpoint exceeding analysts' estimate of $15.69 billion [1] Group 2: Business Segment Performance - The business-to-business (B2B) segment has seen growth due to new client additions, including airlines and offline travel agents [1] - Gross bookings in the B2B division increased by 24% in the fourth quarter, compared to a 5% increase in the direct-to-consumer unit [1] Group 3: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - Cost-conscious travelers are driving demand for online travel agencies, seeking value through deals and discounts [1] - Expedia reported a 70% increase in partners participating in Black Friday sales, with 30% of fourth-quarter bookings coming from discounted inventory [1] Group 4: Financial Performance - Adjusted profit for the fourth quarter was $3.78 per share, up from $2.39 per share a year earlier [1] - Total revenue for the fourth quarter rose by 11.4% to $3.54 billion [1]

Core Insights - Expedia's B2B segment has been identified as a significant driver of growth for the company, indicating strong performance in its business-to-business operations [1] Group 1 - The B2B arm of Expedia has shown robust growth, contributing positively to the overall financial performance of the company [1]

This presentation includes certain non- GAAP measures. Reconciliations of the measures to the nearest comparable GAAP measures are included in the appendix at the end of this presentation. Notes and Definitions Safe Harbor Statement Under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 This presentation contains "forward-looking statements" about Expedia Group's financial performance, operating results, and guidance, which may include, but are not limited to, statements relating to future gross booking ...

Core Insights - The company's business-to-business division is experiencing increased revenue due to a growing number of corporate travel customers, airlines, and banks utilizing Expedia for technology, inventory, and tools to enhance their operations [1] Group 1 - The business-to-business division is a significant revenue driver for the company [1] - Corporate travel customers are increasingly turning to Expedia for support [1] - Airlines and banks are leveraging Expedia's technology and inventory [1]

Financial Performance - Booked room nights increased by 9% year-over-year in Q4 2025, totaling 94.0 million nights[2] - Gross bookings reached $27.003 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting an 11% growth compared to Q4 2024, with full-year gross bookings at $119.590 billion, an 8% increase[2] - Revenue for Q4 2025 was $3.547 billion, up 11% year-over-year, while full-year revenue was $14.733 billion, an 8% increase[2] - Operating income surged by 94% year-over-year in Q4 2025, amounting to $420 million, with full-year operating income at $1.871 billion, a 42% increase[2] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $848 million, a 32% increase year-over-year, with an EBITDA margin of 23.9%, expanding by 368 basis points[5] - Net income for the year ended December 31, 2025, was $1,301 million, up from $1,224 million in 2024, representing a growth of 6.3%[29] - Total operating income for the year ended December 31, 2025, was $1.871 billion, up from $1.871 billion in 2024, indicating stable performance year-over-year[50] - Adjusted net income attributable to Expedia Group, Inc. for the year ended December 31, 2025, was $2,039 million, compared to $1,622 million in 2024[53] Cash Position - The company ended 2025 with $5.7 billion in unrestricted cash and short-term investments, indicating a strong cash position[5] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of 2025 were $5,413 million, up from $4,183 million in 2024, an increase of 29.4%[27] - The company reported a net cash provided by operating activities of $3,880 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, compared to $3,085 million in 2024, an increase of 25.8%[29] - Free cash flow for the year ended December 31, 2025, reached $3,110 million, an increase from $2,329 million in 2024[54] Future Projections - For Q1 2026, gross bookings are projected to be between $34.6 billion and $35.2 billion, representing a growth of 10% to 12%[6] - Revenue guidance for full year 2026 is set between $15.6 billion and $16.0 billion, with expected growth of 6% to 9%[6] - Adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to expand by 3 to 4 percentage points in Q1 2026 and by 1 to 1.25 percentage points for the full year[6] Segment Performance - B2B revenue increased by 24% year-over-year to $8,659 million in Q4-25, indicating strong growth in the business segment[21] - The B2C segment reported an operating income of $1.028 billion for the year ended December 31, 2025, while the B2B segment reported $2.240 billion, highlighting strong performance in both segments[50] Expenses and Margins - Selling and marketing expenses for Q3-24 were $1,855 million, accounting for 6.7% of gross bookings[21] - Selling and marketing expenses for the year ended December 31, 2025, totaled $7,349 million, up from $6,846 million in 2024[54] - Adjusted EBITDA margin for the year ended December 31, 2024, was 21.4%[52] - The revenue margin for Q3-24 was 14.8%, with a forecast of 14.4% for Q4-25, showing a slight decrease[22] Assets and Liabilities - Total current assets increased to $12,199 million in 2025 from $9,815 million in 2024, marking a growth of 24.5%[27] - Total assets increased to $24,452 million in 2025 from $22,388 million in 2024, a growth of 9.2%[27] - Total stockholders' equity decreased to $2,547 million in 2025 from $2,799 million in 2024, a decline of 9.0%[27] Adjustments and Non-Cash Items - Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2025 was $848 million, compared to $643 million in the same quarter of 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of approximately 32%[50] - Stock-based compensation was excluded from Adjusted Expenses, as it is a non-cash expense not reflective of ongoing cash operating expenses[45] - Legal reserves and other adjustments contributed $185 million to Adjusted EBITDA, reflecting ongoing legal and tax-related considerations[50] Competitive Landscape - The company faced intense competition from online travel agencies and emerging AI-powered platforms, which could impact future performance[49]

Financial giants have made a conspicuous bearish move on Expedia Group. Our analysis of options history for Expedia Group (NASDAQ:EXPE) revealed 60 unusual trades.Delving into the details, we found 36% of traders were bullish, while 43% showed bearish tendencies. Out of all the trades we spotted, 32 were puts, with a value of $4,212,652, and 28 were calls, valued at $1,545,343.Projected Price TargetsAfter evaluating the trading volumes and Open Interest, it's evident that the major market movers are focusin ...

Expedia Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXPE) will release earnings for its fourth quarter after the closing bell on Thursday, Feb. 12.Expedia investors may be eyeing potential gains from the company's dividends. Currently, the company has an annual dividend yield of 0.68%, which is a quarterly dividend amount of 40 cents per share ($1.60 a year).  So, how can investors exploit its dividend yield to pocket a regular $500 monthly?To earn $500 per month or $6,000 annually from dividends alone, you would need an investmen ...

Expedia Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXPE) will release earnings for its fourth quarter after the closing bell on Thursday, Feb. 12.Expedia investors may be eyeing potential gains from the company's dividends. Currently, the company has an annual dividend yield of 0.68%, which is a quarterly dividend amount of 40 cents per share ($1.60 a year).  So, how can investors exploit its dividend yield to pocket a regular $500 monthly?To earn $500 per month or $6,000 annually from dividends alone, you would need an investmen ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent internal rotation in the U.S. stock market, highlighting a shift from a few large-cap stocks leading the market to a broader participation across various sectors, while also addressing the impact of AI on traditional business models and the resulting market volatility [5][7][8]. Market Performance - On Tuesday, the S&P 500 fell by approximately 0.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by about 0.1%, reaching a new historical high [5]. - The equal-weighted S&P index also reached a record high, indicating a shift in market dynamics with around 300 stocks in the S&P 500 rising [7]. Retail Sales Data - The U.S. Commerce Department reported that December retail sales were flat month-over-month, significantly below the expected 0.4% growth, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [9]. - Core retail sales, excluding autos and gas, even showed a decline, reflecting weakened consumer spending momentum during the holiday season [9]. Interest Rate Expectations - The weak retail data led to a rise in U.S. Treasury prices and a decline in yields, with the futures market increasing the probability of three rate cuts within the year, with two already priced in [9]. - Historical trends suggest that rate cut expectations typically support risk assets, but the current market shows a divergence where rates are falling but stocks are not rising, particularly in the tech sector [11]. AI Impact on Market Sentiment - Market participants are shifting their interpretation of AI's impact from a growth narrative to concerns about short-term disruptions, leading to a "sell first, think later" mentality [12]. - Investors are moving from an "AI is a panacea" mindset to a more pragmatic "performance realization" phase, anticipating greater differentiation between winners and losers in the market [12]. Institutional Perspectives - There is a noticeable divergence in institutional views on the tech sector, with Goldman Sachs warning about the risks of overestimating AI's growth potential and emphasizing the need for actual earnings and cash flow improvements to support tech valuations [13]. - UBS downgraded its rating on the U.S. tech sector from "overweight" to "neutral," citing key risks while still acknowledging the long-term potential of AI [14]. Wealth Management Sector - The wealth management sector has come under scrutiny following the launch of an AI tool by Altruist Corp., which automates tasks traditionally reliant on human expertise, raising concerns about the core revenue models of wealth management firms [17][18]. - The market reacted sharply, with significant declines in stocks of major wealth management firms, indicating fears about the long-term competitive structure of the industry under AI pressure [19][21]. Broader Market Reactions - The sell-off in the market has been attributed to fears that AI tools could undermine the intermediary value of insurance brokers, leading to a significant drop in the insurance brokerage sector [22]. - The recent downturn in the software sector has seen substantial market capitalization losses, with estimates indicating a combined loss of approximately $611 billion across software, financial services, and asset management sectors [26]. Conclusion - The current market environment reflects a transition from viewing AI as a beneficiary narrative to recognizing potential victims, with traditional software companies facing heightened scrutiny and volatility [27]. - The article suggests that this phase serves as a valuation and business model stress test, prompting a reevaluation of which revenue models are based on irreplaceable value versus those reliant on information asymmetry [34].