智通财经APP获悉，周三，美股光通信板块走强，截至发稿，Lumentum(LITE.US)涨超7.9%，康宁 (GLW.US)涨超5%，Coherent(COHR.US)涨超5.4%，Fabrinet(FN.US)涨超5.8%，Ciena(CIEN.US)涨超 6%。 ...

North America Equity Research February 2026 Hardware & Networking Optical Teach-in & Bull Case on Coherent, Lumentum, Fabrinet, Ciena, & Corning Hardware & Networking–Equity Research | Samik Chatterjee AC | Joseph Cardoso | Manmohanpreet Singh | Marc Vitenzon | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 212-622-0798 | 212-622-9036 | 212-622-4527 | 212-622-3342 | | samik.x.chatterjee@jpmorgan.com | joseph.cardoso@jpmorgan.com | manmohanpreet.singh@jpmchase.com | marc.vitenzon@jpmchase.com | | J.P. Morgan Securities LLC | J ...

Core Insights - Wasatch Global Investors reported a challenging Q4 2025 for its Small Cap Growth Strategy, with small-cap equities underperforming broader market indices due to investor caution and preference for larger stocks [1] - The Russell 2000® Growth Index gained 1.22% in Q4 2025, while the Wasatch strategy finished in negative territory, highlighting stock-specific factors rather than macroeconomic stress [1] - Biotechnology was a strong segment within small-cap stocks, with its component in the Russell 2000® Growth Index rising nearly 27% [1] - For the full year 2025, the Russell 2000 Growth Index advanced 13.01%, contrasting with the Wasatch strategy's loss, attributed to earnings volatility and valuation compression [1] Company Insights - Fabrinet (NYSE:FN) is highlighted as a significant contributor in the Q4 2025 investor letter, providing advanced optical and electronic manufacturing services [2][3] - The stock of Fabrinet had a one-month return of -0.90%, with shares trading between $464.00 and $504.03 over the last 52 weeks, and a market capitalization of approximately $17.555 billion [2] - Fabrinet's optical transceivers are noted for maintaining precise thermal control during high-speed data transmission, with increased demand driven by data center upgrades for AI workloads [3] - Despite being held by 44 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q3 2025, Fabrinet is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with a belief that other AI stocks may offer higher returns in a shorter timeframe [4]

Core Insights - The FPA Queens Road Small Cap Value Fund returned -0.36% in Q4 2025, underperforming the Russell 2000 Value Index which gained 3.26% during the same period [1] - For the full year 2025, the Fund achieved a return of 13.36%, slightly outperforming the Index's 12.59% gain [1] - The Fund's strategy focuses on quality and value to protect clients from market drawdowns, but it underperformed in the second half of 2025 due to a market preference for speculative and low-quality stocks [1] Company Analysis: Fabrinet (NYSE:FN) - Fabrinet is a contract manufacturer specializing in optical networking equipment and modules, dominating its niche with impressive historical revenue growth and increasing operating margins [3] - As of February 12, 2026, Fabrinet's stock closed at $462.05 per share, with a one-month return of -6.55% and a 12-month increase of 107.16% [2] - The company reported record revenue of $1.13 billion in Q2 fiscal 2026, reflecting a 36% year-over-year growth [5] - Fabrinet's products are in high demand in data centers, particularly for training artificial intelligence models, with Nvidia being a significant customer [3] - Despite its strong position, the Fund has been trimming its holdings in Fabrinet due to concerns that stock price expectations may have outpaced actual spending in data centers [3] Hedge Fund Interest - Fabrinet was held by 44 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q3 2025, an increase from 32 in the previous quarter [5] - The company is not listed among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, indicating a mixed sentiment in the investment community [5]

Core Insights - Fabrinet published its Corporate Responsibility Report for the fiscal year ended June 27, 2025, highlighting progress in sustainable manufacturing, supply chain management, quality management, risk management, employee training, and community engagement [1][2]. Sustainable Manufacturing - The company achieved reduced electricity intensity and Scope 2 emissions intensity while lowering costs, natural resource consumption, and waste through 233 green stream mapping and reduce, reuse, recycle projects [5]. Quality Management - Continuous improvement initiatives were extended in 2025, including Kaizen & Lean Training, quarterly Kaizen and Six Sigma contests, weekly Gemba audits, and regular 5S audits to empower employees in contributing to high-quality and efficient operations [5]. Human Capital Management - Fabrinet was recognized by Thailand's Ministry of Labor for strong labor rights practices at both Pinehurst and Chonburi campuses in fiscal year 2025 [5]. Community Initiatives - The company received national recognition for its contributions to community development and youth empowerment [5].

Core Viewpoint - Growth investors are increasingly focused on identifying stocks with above-average financial growth, which can lead to solid returns, but finding such stocks is challenging due to their inherent risks and volatility [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Fabrinet (FN) is currently highlighted as a promising growth stock, supported by a favorable Growth Score and a top Zacks Rank [2] - The company specializes in assembling optical, electro-mechanical, and electronic devices for other firms [3] Group 2: Earnings Growth - Fabrinet has a historical EPS growth rate of 23.7%, with projected EPS growth of 33.6% for the current year, significantly surpassing the industry average of 23.9% [5] Group 3: Cash Flow Growth - The year-over-year cash flow growth for Fabrinet stands at 12.6%, outperforming the industry average of -5.3% [6] - Over the past 3-5 years, the company's annualized cash flow growth rate has been 20.6%, compared to the industry average of 5.2% [7] Group 4: Earnings Estimate Revisions - There has been a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions for Fabrinet, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year increasing by 2.5% over the past month [8] Group 5: Investment Positioning - Fabrinet's combination of a Zacks Rank 1 and a Growth Score of B positions it well for potential outperformance, making it an attractive option for growth investors [10]

Core Viewpoint - Fabrinet (FN) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) due to an upward trend in earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][2]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Movement - The Zacks rating system is effective for individual investors as it focuses on earnings estimate revisions, which are closely correlated with near-term stock price movements [2][3]. - Institutional investors rely on earnings estimates to determine the fair value of stocks, leading to significant price movements when they adjust their positions based on these estimates [3]. Company Performance and Outlook - The upgrade for Fabrinet indicates an improvement in the company's underlying business, which is expected to positively influence its stock price [4]. - For the fiscal year ending June 2026, Fabrinet is projected to earn $13.58 per share, with a 2.5% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate over the past three months [7]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [6]. - Fabrinet's upgrade to Zacks Rank 1 places it in the top 5% of Zacks-covered stocks, indicating strong potential for market-beating returns in the near term [9].

Core Viewpoint - Fabrinet is positioned as a key player in advanced optical packaging and manufacturing services, with a focus on telecommunications, data communications, and industrial lasers, despite facing competition and challenges in certain segments [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Fabrinet's Q2 results exceeded its own guidance, indicating strong overall performance [3][6]. - The company reported a stock price of $457.57, reflecting a 2.01% increase or $9.04, showcasing resilience in the market [2][6]. - The market capitalization of Fabrinet is approximately $16.39 billion, with a trading volume of 231,684 shares, indicating investor interest [5]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Wolfe Research has set a price target of $540 for Fabrinet, suggesting a potential upside of 17.91% from its current trading price [2][6]. - Despite concerns regarding AI revenue expectations, the non-AI segments of the company showed robust strength, contributing to overall profitability [3][6]. Group 3: Segment Challenges - The automotive segment of Fabrinet faced setbacks due to industry-wide challenges, impacting its performance [4][6]. - The stock has shown significant volatility, with a trading range between a low of $449.31 and a high of $465.85 on the current day, and a yearly range of $148.55 to $531.22 [4][6].

Core Insights - Fabrinet (FN) is benefiting significantly from the AI capital expenditure cycle, as its optical transceivers and cables are essential for building data center infrastructure for AI applications [1] Company Summary - Fabrinet specializes in optical and electronic components, which are crucial for the development of AI-related data centers [1] Investment Philosophy - The investment approach focuses on identifying mispriced securities by analyzing the underlying drivers of a company's financials, often revealed through discounted cash flow (DCF) model valuations [1]

Summary of J.P. Morgan's Optical Group Conference Call Industry Overview - The Optical group has shown resilience with a +10% performance year-to-date, outperforming the coverage average of -1% and the S&P 500 at +1% [1][3] - Concerns regarding AI valuations initially hindered growth, but strong fundamentals have emerged, supported by positive data points from December and January [1] Key Developments - Corning secured a $6 billion multi-year fiber optics agreement with Meta, indicating strong demand in the sector [1] - U.S. hyperscaler earnings and capital expenditure disclosures have been solid, contributing to an increase in market Total Addressable Market (TAM) expectations by over $5 billion for 2026 [1] Company-Specific Insights Coherent Corp (COHR) - Expected to report F2Q26 results ahead of expectations, driven by strong datacom and telecom trends [12] - Anticipated gross margin expansion, potentially reaching 40% or greater earlier than expected, supporting a bullish EPS outlook of ~$9 for CY27 [12][20] - Current share price trades at 28x CY27 earnings, below the cohort average of 30x+, presenting an attractive investment opportunity [12][20] Fabrinet (FN) - Positioned for upside in F2Q26 and F3Q26 results, driven by customer ramps in datacom, telecom, and HPC segments [15][30] - Anticipated revenue growth of +14% year-over-year for F3Q26, with a focus on Nvidia's ramp impacting overall performance [15][30] - Shares currently trade at 29x CY27 earnings, reflecting a modest discount compared to peers [15][30] Lumentum (LITE) - Facing a challenging setup with high buy-side expectations, trading at 36x CY27 earnings [16][42] - Expected revenue growth of +64% year-over-year for F2Q26, but concerns exist regarding the ability to meet lofty expectations [16][42] - The upcoming annual Investor Briefing may not provide significant updates on long-term financial frameworks, adding to uncertainty [16] Valuation and Price Targets - Coherent's price target set at $215, based on a P/E multiple of ~29x for CY27E EPS [21] - Fabrinet's price target set at $530, reflecting a target P/E multiple of ~30x [31] - Lumentum's price target set at $350, based on a ~30x P/E target multiple [43] Risks - Industry-wide pricing pressure could negatively impact earnings forecasts for optical component companies, including Coherent, Fabrinet, and Lumentum [23][35][45] - Vertical integration by optical system suppliers poses competitive risks, potentially leading to pricing pressures [25][48] - Customer concentration risks exist for all three companies, with significant revenue dependence on a few large customers [37][49] Conclusion - The Optical group is experiencing a rebound with strong fundamentals, but high valuations necessitate caution among investors. Selectivity is advised as companies navigate potential risks and pricing pressures in the optical component market [3][12][16]