Core Insights - Gulfport Energy reported a revenue of $239.87 million for Q4 2024, marking a 51% year-over-year decline and a surprise of -26.09% compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $324.54 million [1] - The company achieved an EPS of $4.80, which is an increase from $3.10 a year ago, resulting in an EPS surprise of +23.08% against the consensus estimate of $3.90 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Gulfport's shares have returned +3.1% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -1.8% change, and currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [3] - Average price for NGL was $30.98 per barrel, exceeding the two-analyst average estimate of $27.48 per barrel [4] - Daily production volume for gas equivalent was 1,055,472 Mcfe/D, slightly below the two-analyst average estimate of 1,067,496 Mcfe/D [4] - Daily production volume for natural gas was 958,075 Mcf/D, compared to the two-analyst average estimate of 974,991.8 Mcf/D [4] - Average price for natural gas was $2.99 per thousand cubic feet, above the two-analyst average estimate of $2.91 [4] - Daily production volume for NGL was 11,004 BBL/D, surpassing the two-analyst average estimate of 10,777.44 BBL/D [4] - Average price for oil and condensate was $65.75 per barrel, slightly higher than the two-analyst average estimate of $65.12 per barrel [4] - Daily production volume for oil and condensate was 5,229 BBL/D, exceeding the two-analyst average estimate of 4,839.98 BBL/D [4] - Revenues from natural gas sales were $221.55 million, lower than the $244.09 million estimated by two analysts, but represented a +4.2% change year-over-year [4] - Revenues from oil and condensate sales were $31.29 million, exceeding the two-analyst average estimate of $26.80 million, with a year-over-year change of +32.4% [4] - Revenues from natural gas liquid sales were $31.99 million, above the two-analyst average estimate of $28.16 million, reflecting a +19.4% change year-over-year [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gulfport Energy reported quarterly earnings of $4.80 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.90 per share, and showing an increase from $3.10 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 23.08% [1][2] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $239.87 million for the quarter ended December 2024, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 26.09%, and is a decline from year-ago revenues of $489.11 million [2] - Over the last four quarters, Gulfport has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times but has not beaten consensus revenue estimates [2] Stock Performance and Outlook - Gulfport shares have decreased by about 1% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 1.7% [3] - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, as it includes current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters and any recent changes to these expectations [4] Earnings Estimate Revisions - The trend for estimate revisions ahead of the earnings release was favorable, leading to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) for the stock, indicating expected outperformance in the near future [6] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $4.80 on revenues of $324.06 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $22.29 on revenues of $1.38 billion [7] Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry is currently in the top 22% of Zacks industries, suggesting that stocks in the top 50% outperform those in the bottom 50% by more than 2 to 1 [8] - Another company in the same industry, Granite Ridge Resources, Inc., is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.14 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of -30%, with a recent 19.4% upward revision in the consensus EPS estimate [9]

Production Volumes - Total production volumes for natural gas increased to 967,633 Mcf/day in 2024, up from 959,743 Mcf/day in 2023, representing a 0.9% increase[5] - Oil and condensate production volumes rose to 3,986 Bbl/day in 2024, compared to 3,733 Bbl/day in 2023, marking a 6.8% increase[8] - NGL production volumes decreased to 10,431 Bbl/day in 2024 from 12,018 Bbl/day in 2023, a decline of 13.2%[8] Financial Performance - Total revenues for Q4 2024 were $239.9 million, down from $489.1 million in Q4 2023, reflecting a 51.0% decrease[10] - Net loss attributable to common stockholders for Q4 2024 was $274.2 million, compared to a net income of $209.0 million in Q4 2023[10] - Total revenues decreased to $958.1 million in 2024 from $1.79 billion in 2023, a decline of approximately 46.4%[12] - Natural gas sales fell to $714.2 million in 2024, down from $831.8 million in 2023, representing a decrease of about 14.1%[12] - Net loss attributable to common stockholders was $265.6 million in 2024, compared to a net income of $1.25 billion in 2023[12] - Operating expenses increased to $1.19 billion in 2024, up from $816.9 million in 2023, marking an increase of approximately 46%[12] Asset and Debt Management - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $1.47 million at the end of 2024 from $1.93 million at the end of 2023, a decline of about 23.9%[14] - Total assets decreased to $2.87 billion in 2024 from $3.27 billion in 2023, a reduction of approximately 12.2%[16] - Long-term debt increased to $702.9 million in 2024 from $667.4 million in 2023, an increase of about 5.3%[16] Impairments and Guidance - The company reported an impairment of oil and natural gas properties amounting to $342.7 million in Q4 2024[10] - The company reported an impairment of oil and natural gas properties amounting to $373.2 million in 2024[12] - The company provided 2025 guidance, indicating expectations for production growth and cost management strategies[2] - The company provided guidance for 2025 based on commodity strip prices as of January 27, 2025, with no property acquisitions or divestitures assumed[21] Production Projections - Average daily gas equivalent production is projected to be between 1,040 MMcfe/day and 1,065 MMcfe/day for the year ending December 31, 2025, with approximately 89% being gas[22] - Average daily liquids production is expected to range from 18.0 MBbl/day to 20.5 MBbl/day for the same period[22] - Capital expenditures for operated drilling and completion are estimated between $335 million and $355 million, with total base capital expenditures projected between $370 million and $395 million[22] Pricing and Swaps - Average price of natural gas, including settled derivatives, was $2.99/Mcf in Q4 2024, up from $2.91/Mcf in Q4 2023, an increase of 2.8%[7] - Average price of oil and condensate, including settled derivatives, decreased to $69.75/Bbl in 2024 from $70.74/Bbl in 2023, a decline of 1.4%[8] - The weighted average price for natural gas fixed price swaps is set at $3.82/MMBtu for 2025[26] - The company’s oil fixed price swaps volume is 3,000 Bblpd at a weighted average price of $73.29/Bbl for 2025[26] - The company has fixed price collars for natural gas with a weighted average floor price of $3.37/MMBtu and a ceiling price of $4.23/MMBtu for 2025[26] Adjusted Financial Metrics - Adjusted net income for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, is reported at $85.376 million, compared to $84.381 million for the same quarter in 2023[37] - The company incurred a net loss of $273.242 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, compared to a net income of $245.731 million for the same quarter in 2023[37] - Adjusted Net Income (Non-GAAP) for 2024 was $282,494 thousand, a decrease of 18.2% from $345,479 thousand in 2023[40] - Adjusted EBITDA (Non-GAAP) for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $731,079 thousand, slightly up from $725,045 thousand in 2023[48] - Adjusted Free Cash Flow (Non-GAAP) for 2024 was $256,811 thousand, an increase of 29.1% from $198,863 thousand in 2023[57] - Adjusted Free Cash Flow (Non-GAAP) for the three months ended December 31, 2024, was $125,210 thousand, an increase of 46.5% from $85,446 thousand in 2023[52] General and Administrative Expenses - General and administrative expenses (GAAP) for the year ended December 31, 2024, totaled $42,558,000, an increase from $38,600,000 in 2023, representing a growth of 5.1%[64] - Capitalized general and administrative expenses for 2024 were $25,338,000, up from $22,810,000 in 2023, indicating an increase of 11.0%[64] - Recurring general and administrative expenses before capitalization (Non-GAAP) reached $65,372,000 in 2024, compared to $58,566,000 in 2023, reflecting a rise of 11.6%[64] - Non-recurring general and administrative expenses for 2024 were $(2,524,000), slightly improved from $(2,844,000) in 2023[64] - Cash component of general and administrative expenses (GAAP) was $31,600,000 in 2024, compared to $30,385,000 in 2023, showing an increase of 4.0%[64] - Non-cash component of general and administrative expenses (GAAP) for 2024 was $10,958,000, up from $8,215,000 in 2023, a growth of 33.5%[64] - The total cash and non-cash general and administrative expenses for 2024 were $42,558,000, compared to $38,600,000 in 2023, indicating a total increase of 10.0%[64] - The recurring general and administrative expenses before capitalization (Non-GAAP) increased from $46,305,000 in 2023 to $49,016,000 in 2024, a rise of 5.9%[64]

Energy Market Overview - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects a mixed outlook for oil and natural gas markets through 2026, with production increases and slower demand growth shaping the landscape [1] - Brent crude prices are expected to decline, averaging $74 per barrel in 2025 and dropping to $66 in 2026 [1] - U.S. crude production is set to rise to a record 13.59 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, reflecting strong domestic output [1][6] Oil Demand and Consumption - Global liquid fuels demand is expected to rise by 1.4 million bpd in 2025 and 1 million bpd in 2026, primarily driven by non-OECD Asia, with India and China contributing significantly [3] - In the U.S., gasoline consumption is projected to remain flat in 2025 and slightly decline in 2026 due to improvements in fuel efficiency [4] Oil Supply Dynamics - Global liquid fuels production is forecasted to increase by 1.9 million bpd in 2025 and 1.6 million bpd in 2026, with non-OPEC+ countries leading the growth [5] - The easing of OPEC+ production cuts is expected to contribute an additional 600,000 bpd in 2026 [5] Natural Gas Market Insights - U.S. natural gas output is anticipated to reach 104.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) in 2025 and 107.3 bcf/d in 2026, continuing a record-setting trajectory [7] - Domestic gas consumption is projected to peak at 90.7 bcf/d in 2025 before slightly declining in 2026 [7] - The Henry Hub natural gas spot price is forecasted to rise to $3.80 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025 and $4.20/MMBtu in 2026 [7] Future Outlook for Oil and Gas - Despite expected declines in oil prices, strong production levels and resilient demand from key markets will keep the sector dynamic [8] - Natural gas is poised for long-term growth, supported by infrastructure expansion and increasing global demand for LNG [8] Investment Opportunities - Companies like Sunoco LP, Suncor Energy, and Gulfport Energy are highlighted as attractive investment options due to their efficient operations and stable cash flows [2][9][10][11] - Sunoco focuses on transportation and supply in the U.S. petroleum market, while Suncor is a leading integrated energy company in Canada [9][10] - Gulfport Energy, primarily focused on natural gas, has emerged from bankruptcy with a stronger balance sheet and a free cash flow-oriented strategy [11]

Core Viewpoint - Momentum investing focuses on following a stock's recent price trends, aiming to buy high and sell higher, with the expectation that established trends will continue [1] Company Overview: Gulfport Energy (GPOR) - Gulfport Energy currently holds a Momentum Style Score of B, indicating a favorable momentum characteristic [2] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), suggesting strong potential for outperformance in the market [3] Performance Metrics - GPOR shares have increased by 4.01% over the past week, outperforming the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry, which rose by 2.43% [5] - Over the past month, GPOR's price change is 14.94%, compared to the industry's 10.86% [5] - In the last quarter, GPOR shares have risen by 37.05%, and over the past year, they have gained 51.03%, while the S&P 500 has only increased by 4.32% and 27.01%, respectively [6] Trading Volume - The average 20-day trading volume for GPOR is 287,671 shares, which serves as a baseline for price-to-volume analysis [7] Earnings Outlook - In the past two months, two earnings estimates for GPOR have been revised upwards, with the consensus estimate increasing from $14.38 to $14.43 [9] - For the next fiscal year, four estimates have moved higher, with no downward revisions during the same period [9] Conclusion - Given the positive performance metrics and earnings outlook, GPOR is positioned as a strong buy with a Momentum Score of B, making it a compelling investment option [11]

Economic Environment - The favorable December inflation reading has alleviated concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's ability to justify rate cuts in 2025, contributing to positive market sentiment [1] - Uncertainty remains with Donald Trump resuming the presidency, as key policies such as higher trade tariffs and tighter immigration controls are anticipated to impact markets [2] Investment Strategy - Value investing is highlighted as a strategy to profit from stocks trading at a discount to their intrinsic values, with a focus on earnings yield as a key metric [3][5] - Earnings yield is calculated as annual earnings per share (EPS) divided by market price, providing insight into the anticipated return from earnings for each dollar invested [5][6] - A stock's earnings yield should be compared to the 10-year Treasury yield to assess its relative value; a higher yield indicates undervaluation [7] Stock Selection Criteria - An earnings yield greater than 10% is set as a primary screening criterion, supplemented by estimated EPS growth greater than or equal to the S&P 500 and an average daily volume of at least 100,000 [8][9] - Stocks must have a current price of at least $5 and a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) to be considered for investment [10] Recommended Stocks - **Harmony Biosciences (HRMY)**: Expected year-over-year growth of 18% in sales and 33% in earnings for 2025, with a Zacks Rank 1 and Value Score of A [12] - **Ingevity Corporation (NGVT)**: Anticipated growth of 2% in sales and 62% in earnings for 2025, holding a Zacks Rank 1 and Value Score of B [13] - **Gulfport Energy (GPOR)**: Projected year-over-year growth of 22% in sales and 55% in earnings for 2025, also with a Zacks Rank 1 and Value Score of B [14] - **Pitney Bowes (PBI)**: Expected earnings growth of 184% for 2025, with a Zacks Rank 1 and Value Score of A [15]

Earnings Outlook and Stock Performance - Gulfport Energy (GPOR) shows a noticeable improvement in its earnings outlook, making it an attractive investment option [1] - The stock has been a strong performer recently, and the momentum is expected to continue as analysts raise their earnings estimates [1] - The stock has risen 9.4% over the past four weeks due to strong estimate revisions and increased investor interest [7] Analyst Sentiment and Estimate Revisions - Analysts are increasingly optimistic about Gulfport's earnings prospects, leading to rising trend in estimate revisions [2] - Two estimates have moved higher for the current quarter over the last 30 days, with no negative revisions, resulting in a 6.25% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate [4] - For the full year, one estimate has moved higher over the past month, with no negative revisions, boosting the consensus estimate by 6.73% [5] Earnings Estimates and Growth - Gulfport is expected to earn $4.07 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year increase of 31.29% [4] - For the full year, the company is expected to earn $14.43 per share, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 108.53% [5] Zacks Rank and Investment Potential - Gulfport has earned a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) due to favorable estimate revisions [6] - Stocks with Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) and 2 (Buy) have historically outperformed the S&P 500, with Zacks 1 Ranked stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 2008 [3][6] - The Zacks Rank system is a proven tool for identifying stocks with strong earnings estimate revisions and investment potential [6]

Core Viewpoint - Natural gas prices have surged approximately 70% since mid-October, benefiting companies like Gulfport Energy, which has seen a 30% stock increase over the past three months, outperforming peers [1][5]. Company Overview - Gulfport Energy is a natural gas-focused exploration and production company based in Oklahoma City, primarily operating in the Utica Shale in Ohio and the SCOOP play in Oklahoma. The company has emerged from bankruptcy with a stronger balance sheet and a strategy focused on free cash flow [4]. Financial Performance - Gulfport Energy is projected to deliver significant earnings growth, with Zacks Consensus Estimates indicating year-over-year EPS growth of 108.5% for 2024 and 51% for 2025. The stock is currently trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 8.49, below the industry average [6][7]. - The company reported $73 million in adjusted free cash flow during Q3 2024, exceeding expectations, and has expanded its stock repurchase authorization by 54% to $1 billion, repurchasing 5.2 million shares [9][8]. Operational Efficiency - Gulfport has achieved over $25 million in capital savings in 2024 due to cost management and operational efficiencies, allowing a reduction in capital expenditure guidance by approximately 4% to a range of $325-$335 million [10]. - The company is focusing on liquids-weighted assets, with over 60% of 2025 turn-in-line wells expected to produce liquids, enhancing profitability [11]. Strategic Positioning - Gulfport holds 4.2 trillion cubic feet equivalent of proved reserves in resource-rich regions, supporting long-term production stability and enabling the company to capitalize on favorable market conditions [12]. - The company has hedged 65% of its 2024 production at $3.63/MMBtu, providing short-term stability against price volatility [13]. Investment Outlook - Gulfport Energy is identified as a strong investment opportunity in the natural gas sector, with robust free cash flow, disciplined cost management, and a favorable growth outlook. The stock's current undervaluation and promising EPS growth reinforce its status as a strong buy [14].

Core Viewpoint - Momentum investing focuses on following a stock's recent price trends, aiming to buy high and sell higher, with the expectation that established trends will continue [1] Company Overview: Gulfport Energy (GPOR) - Gulfport Energy currently holds a Momentum Style Score of B, indicating a favorable momentum characteristic [2] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting strong potential for outperformance in the market [3] Performance Metrics - GPOR shares have increased by 8.4% over the past week, outperforming the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry, which rose by 6.02% [5] - Over the last quarter, GPOR shares have risen by 25.21%, and over the past year, they have increased by 46.86%, while the S&P 500 has only moved 4.3% and 28.89% respectively [6] - The average 20-day trading volume for GPOR is 232,509 shares, indicating a bullish sign with rising stock prices [7] Earnings Outlook - In the past two months, one earnings estimate for GPOR has increased, while none have decreased, raising the consensus estimate from $14.38 to $14.40 [9] - For the next fiscal year, one estimate has also moved upwards with no downward revisions during the same period [9] Conclusion - Given the positive performance metrics and earnings outlook, GPOR is positioned as a 2 (Buy) stock with a Momentum Score of B, making it a strong candidate for near-term investment [11]

Following Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and press conference from Jerome Powell, it seems 2025 may be shaping up to be a bit more uncertain than investors were expecting. Powell expressed his concern about rising inflation and signaled the central bank was going to be more hawkish moving forward. Fortunately, investors need not try to predict what is going to happen next year, and would be better served by picking a diverse portfolio of stocks that will benefit from various future outcomes.While 2024 brought str ...