I give a hold rating for Guidewire Software (NYSE: GWRE ) as I think most of the near-term positives are now fairly priced in. 3Q25 results were strong, with solid revenue growth and growing cloud traction, but the stock alreadyI’m a fundamental, valuation-driven investor with a strong focus on identifying businesses that have the potential to scale over time and unlock massive terminal value. My investment approach centers around understanding the core economics of a business—its competitive moat, unit eco ...

Guidewire Software (GWRE) FY Conference June 05, 2025 10:20 AM ET Speaker0 you, everybody. My name is Dylan Becker. I am the research analyst here at William Blair that covers Guidewire software. We have the CFO, Jeff Cooper, here with us today. Jeff, thank you for joining us. Prior before we get started, he's got a presentation. He'll run through about ten or fifteen minutes on background on the business. Before that, all of the necessary disclosures for this presentation and the conversation can be found ...

Guidewire Software, Inc. GWRE reported better-than-expected third-quarter financial results on Tuesday.Guidewire Software reported quarterly earnings of 88 cents per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of 47 cents per share. The company reported quarterly sales of $293.51 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $286.39 million.“We delivered exceptional third-quarter results, highlighted by record Q3 sales activity and 17 cloud deals,” said Mike Rosenbaum, chief executive officer, Gu ...

Guidewire Software TodayGWREGuidewire Software$250.88 +32.70 (+14.99%) 52-Week Range$117.69▼$263.20P/E Ratio696.89Price Target$232.83Add to WatchlistGuidewire NYSE: GWRE stock is rocketing higher because its AI-enabled, cloud-based SaaS platform service for insurance companies is crushing the estimates. The FQ3 results were so far above the consensus estimate that they have entirely altered the outlook for this company. The takeaway for traders and investors is that the news sparked a 15% surge in the stoc ...

Group 1 - Michael Wiggins De Oliveira is an inflection investor, focusing on buying undervalued companies at pivotal moments when their profitability is expected to increase significantly over the next year [1] - The investment strategy emphasizes technology and the Great Energy Transition, including uranium, with a concentrated portfolio of approximately 15 to 20 stocks and an average holding period of 18 months [1] - Michael has over 10 years of experience in analyzing companies, particularly in the tech and energy sectors, and has built a following of over 40,000 on Seeking Alpha [2] Group 2 - The Investing Group Deep Value Returns, led by Michael, offers insights through its concentrated portfolio of value stocks, timely updates on stock picks, and a weekly webinar for live advice [3] - The group provides "hand-holding" support for both new and experienced investors, fostering an active and vibrant community accessible via chat [3] - Seeking FCF is associated with Michael Wiggins De Oliveira, indicating a collaborative approach in investment strategies [3]

Core Insights - Guidewire Software (GWRE) reported revenue of $293.51 million for the quarter ended April 2025, marking a year-over-year increase of 22% and exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $285.72 million by 2.73% [1] - The company achieved an EPS of $0.88, significantly higher than the $0.26 reported a year ago, resulting in an EPS surprise of 91.30% compared to the consensus estimate of $0.46 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Annual recurring revenue reached $960 million, surpassing the average estimate of $944.40 million by four analysts [4] - Subscription and support revenue was reported at $181.82 million, exceeding the average estimate of $178.14 million by five analysts, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 31.8% [4] - License revenue amounted to $57.23 million, slightly above the average estimate of $55.33 million, with a year-over-year change of 1.8% [4] - Services revenue was reported at $54.45 million, exceeding the average estimate of $52 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 17.1% [4] - Gross profit from subscription and support was $124.41 million, above the average estimate of $120.51 million [4] - Gross profit from services was $1.95 million, below the average estimate of $3.92 million [4] - Gross profit from license revenue was $56.34 million, exceeding the average estimate of $54.87 million [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Guidewire Software's shares returned +2.3%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite saw a +4.6% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guidewire Software reported strong quarterly earnings of $0.88 per share, significantly exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.46 per share, and showing a substantial increase from $0.26 per share a year ago [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenues of $293.51 million for the quarter ended April 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.73% and up from $240.68 million year-over-year [3]. - Guidewire Software has consistently outperformed consensus estimates, surpassing EPS estimates three out of the last four quarters and revenue estimates four times in the same period [2][3]. Stock Performance - Since the beginning of the year, Guidewire Software shares have increased by approximately 27.7%, in contrast to the S&P 500's gain of 0.9% [4]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [7]. Future Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.59, with projected revenues of $331.29 million, while the estimate for the current fiscal year is $1.97 on revenues of $1.17 billion [8]. - The outlook for the Internet - Software industry is favorable, ranking in the top 22% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential for outperformance [9].

Financial Performance - Total revenue for the three months ended April 30, 2025, was $293.5 million, a 22% increase from $240.7 million in the same period of 2024[18]. - Subscription and support revenue reached $181.8 million, up 32% from $138.0 million year-over-year[18]. - Net income for the three months ended April 30, 2025, was $46.0 million, compared to a net loss of $5.5 million in the same period of 2024[20]. - Gross profit for the nine months ended April 30, 2025, was $520.2 million, compared to $396.9 million for the same period in 2024, reflecting a 31% increase[18]. - Comprehensive income for the three months ended April 30, 2025, was $52.8 million, compared to a loss of $7.6 million in the same period of 2024[20]. - Net income for the nine months ended April 30, 2025, was $17.853 million, a significant improvement from a net loss of $22.862 million in the same period of 2024[26]. - Cash flows from operating activities provided $56.036 million, compared to only $1.971 million in the prior year[26]. - Total revenue for the nine months ended April 30, 2025, reached $845.9 million, a 23% increase compared to $689.0 million for the same period in 2024[46]. - For the three months ended April 30, 2025, the company reported a net income of $45.991 million, compared to a net loss of $5.478 million for the same period in 2024[77]. - Basic earnings per share for the three months ended April 30, 2025, was $0.55, while for the same period in 2024, it was a loss of $0.07 per share[77]. Revenue Breakdown - Subscription revenue increased to $166.5 million for the three months ended April 30, 2025, up 38% from $120.4 million in the prior year[45]. - Total revenue from the United States for the three months ended April 30, 2025, was $191.7 million, up from $163.4 million in the same period of 2024[45]. - Total revenue from the Americas for the three months ended April 30, 2025, was $225.8 million, compared to $190.5 million in the prior year, reflecting a growth of 18%[45]. - Services revenue increased by $8.0 million (17%) to $54.5 million for the three months ended April 30, 2025, compared to $46.5 million in the same period of 2024[161]. - Subscription revenue for the nine months ended April 30, 2025, increased by $137.8 million (40%) to $480.9 million compared to $343.2 million in the same period of 2024[156]. - Support revenue decreased by $2.2 million (12%) to $15.4 million for the three months ended April 30, 2025, compared to $17.5 million in the same period of 2024[157]. - Term license revenue increased by $2.1 million (4%) during the three months ended April 30, 2025, compared to the same period a year ago[159]. Expenses and Costs - Operating expenses for the three months ended April 30, 2025, were $178.2 million, an increase from $158.9 million in the same period of 2024[18]. - Total cost of revenue increased by $12.4 million (13%) to $110.8 million for the three months ended April 30, 2025, compared to the same period in 2024[165]. - Subscription and support cost increased by $6.2 million (12%) to $57.4 million for the three months ended April 30, 2025, primarily due to cloud infrastructure expenses[165]. - Research and development expenses increased by $18.0 million (9%) during the nine months ended April 30, 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, primarily due to personnel costs rising by $15.3 million[184]. - Sales and marketing expenses rose by $20.4 million (14%) during the nine months ended April 30, 2025, driven by personnel costs increasing by $15.4 million[188]. - General and administrative expenses increased by $10.5 million (9%) during the nine months ended April 30, 2025, mainly due to professional services costs rising by $3.9 million[192]. Assets and Liabilities - Total current assets increased to $1.3 billion as of April 30, 2025, from $1.3 billion as of July 31, 2024[16]. - Long-term investments rose significantly to $323.3 million from $125.9 million year-over-year[16]. - Total liabilities decreased to $1.1 billion as of April 30, 2025, from $883.6 million as of July 31, 2024[16]. - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period totaled $511.512 million, down from $549.184 million at the beginning of the period[27]. - Cash, cash equivalents, and investments totaled $1.24 billion as of April 30, 2025, an increase from $1.13 billion on July 31, 2024[213]. - Working capital improved to $907.1 million as of April 30, 2025, compared to $457.9 million on July 31, 2024[213]. Strategic Investments and Acquisitions - The company made strategic investments, acquiring businesses for a net cash outflow of $26.724 million[26]. - The Company completed the acquisition of Quantee for approximately $27.9 million, with $21.4 million attributed to goodwill[69][72]. - The carrying amount of goodwill increased from $372.2 million as of July 31, 2024, to $393.6 million as of April 30, 2025[73]. Stock and Financing - The company issued $690 million in 1.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2029 in October 2024, with a fair value of $760.0 million as of April 30, 2025[61][62]. - The company had a total principal amount of $690 million in 2029 Convertible Senior Notes as of April 30, 2025, with an effective interest rate of 1.8%[79]. - The company recognized total interest expense of $3.494 million for the three months ended April 30, 2025, compared to $1.684 million for the same period in 2024[79]. - The Company retired $220.9 million aggregate principal amount of the 2025 Convertible Senior Notes in cash for $354.0 million during the nine months ended April 30, 2025[102]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates that subscription arrangements will constitute a significant majority of annual new sales going forward, indicating a strategic shift towards cloud-based offerings[124]. - The company continues to invest in product development and cloud operations to enhance existing products and introduce new solutions, which is critical for maintaining competitive advantage[125]. - The company anticipates that subscriptions will continue to represent a significant majority of new arrangements, impacting future revenue growth due to the ratable recognition of subscription revenue[155]. - The company expects research and development expenses to increase in absolute dollars but decrease as a percentage of revenue as hiring slows[185]. - The company anticipates sales and marketing expenses to continue increasing in absolute dollars but decrease as a percentage of revenue due to slowed hiring[189]. - General and administrative expenses are expected to rise in absolute dollars due to inflation and strategic investments but decrease as a percentage of revenue as hiring slows[194].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a total revenue of $294 million, reflecting a 22% year-over-year growth and exceeding the high end of the outlook [24] - Subscription and support revenue reached $182 million, showing a 32% year-over-year growth [24] - The annual recurring revenue (ARR) finished at $960 million, allowing the company to raise its full-year outlook to exceed $1 billion [10][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company closed 17 cloud deals in Q3, including 14 for InsuranceSuite applications and 3 for InsuranceNow, indicating strong sales activity [9] - The company secured its first Guidewire Industry Intelligence sale, which is expected to be a significant revenue source [13] - Services revenue finished at $54 million, benefiting from strong bookings and higher utilization rates [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced significant international momentum, with cloud expansions in Canada and wins in APAC and EMEA [11] - The company noted strong demand for its cloud offerings, particularly in the high-end market with Tier one and Tier two insurers [9][23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on driving growth through its Guidewire Cloud Platform, which is seen as critical for insurers to modernize their operations [8] - The company is committed to the Japanese market, planning a $60 million investment over the next five years to enhance local operations [17][40] - The acquisition of Quanti is expected to enhance the company's pricing and rating technology, providing more agility to insurance companies [20][92] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining upper teens growth for fully ramped ARR, emphasizing the importance of Q4 for closing large deals [36] - The company highlighted the agility it provides to insurers, which is crucial for addressing the widening coverage gap in the industry [60] - Management noted that the company is well-positioned to continue its cloud transformation and support innovation in the insurance industry [21] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with over $1.2 billion in cash and cash equivalents, with operating cash flow at $32 million [28] - The company raised its ARR outlook for fiscal year 2025 to between $1.012 billion and $1.022 billion, reflecting a growth of 17% to 18% year-over-year [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the fully ramped ARR outlook for this year? - Management indicated strong momentum and confidence in maintaining upper teens growth for fully ramped ARR, with Q4 being critical for large commitments [35][36] Question: What is the secret to winning cloud deals in the Japanese market? - Management emphasized commitment to the Japanese market and the importance of delivering successful outcomes for customers [40][41] Question: Was there any pull forward from Q4 due to Q3 outperformance? - Management clarified that there was no significant pull forward, attributing Q3 success to strong execution across all tiers [48][52] Question: How is the company leveraging AI in its operations? - Management discussed broad applications of generative AI across the product suite, particularly in claims workflows and developer productivity [75] Question: What is the incremental functionality from the Quanti acquisition? - The acquisition is expected to enhance pricing and rating technology applicable to all customers, providing more flexibility and agility [92]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported total revenue of $294 million, representing a 22% year-over-year increase, exceeding the high end of expectations [21] - Subscription and support revenue reached $182 million, reflecting a 32% year-over-year growth [21] - Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) finished at $960 million, allowing the company to raise its full-year outlook [20][27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company closed 17 cloud deals in Q3, including 14 for InsuranceSuite applications and 3 for InsuranceNow, indicating strong sales activity [7] - The company secured its first Guidewire Industry Intelligence sale, a predictive model embedded in ClaimCenter, marking progress in data and analytics offerings [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced significant international momentum, with cloud expansions in Canada and wins in APAC and EMEA [9] - The company announced a $60 million investment in Japan over the next five years to enhance local operations and partnerships [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to continue driving growth through its Guidewire Cloud Platform, which is recognized for its flexibility and agility [6] - The acquisition of Quanti is expected to enhance the company's pricing and rating technology, contributing to its long-term product strategy [18][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining upper teens growth for fully ramped ARR, emphasizing the importance of Q4 for closing large deals [34][35] - The company is committed to the Japanese market, focusing on long-term relationships and investments to support local insurers [38][39] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with over $1.2 billion in cash and cash equivalents, with operating cash flow at $32 million [26] - The company raised its ARR outlook for fiscal year 2025 to between $1.012 billion and $1.022 billion, reflecting a growth of 17% to 18% year-over-year [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the fully ramped ARR outlook for this year? - Management indicated strong momentum and confidence in maintaining upper teens growth for fully ramped ARR, with Q4 being critical for large commitments [34][35] Question: What is helping the company win cloud deals in Japan? - The company highlighted its long-term commitment to the Japanese market and the importance of delivering a robust platform tailored to local needs [36][39] Question: Was there any pull forward from Q4 due to Q3 outperformance? - Management clarified that the strong Q3 performance was due to high close rates and execution, with no significant pull forward from Q4 [44][50] Question: How is the company addressing the widening coverage gap in the insurance industry? - The company emphasized agility in product structuring and pricing, enabling insurers to respond quickly to market needs and close coverage gaps [58][60] Question: What is the incremental functionality from the Quanti acquisition? - The acquisition is expected to enhance pricing and rating capabilities, providing flexibility for insurers to adjust rates and strategies in real-time [91][92]