Core Insights - Robinhood's crypto revenue decreased by 38% to $221 million in Q4, contributing to an 8% drop in premarket trading [1][2] - Total revenue rose 27% to a record $1.28 billion in Q4, but the decline in crypto revenue negatively impacted overall performance [2] - Trading volumes on the Robinhood app fell 52% year-over-year, indicating weaker retail participation [2] Revenue Breakdown - Cryptocurrency transaction revenue fell 38% year-over-year to $221 million, down from $268 million in Q3 [2] - Options revenue increased by 41% to $314 million, while equities trading rose 54% to $94 million [3] - Net interest revenue surged by 39% to $411 million, and Robinhood Gold subscribers grew by 58% to 4.2 million [3] Market Performance - HOOD closed at $85.60 and is trading 8% down in premarket, breaking below all moving averages [4] - Critical support is now at $70-$75, with premarket trading near $78 testing the upper end of this range [4] - The RSI at 34.68 indicates a trend towards oversold conditions, confirming downside momentum [5] Strategic Developments - Robinhood's General Manager noted a shift in customer behavior, with users "buying the dip" and growing portfolios [6] - The company is focusing on passing stablecoin yields to consumers while ensuring they are informed about associated risks [6] - Robinhood announced the launch of Robinhood Chain, an Ethereum Layer-2 for trading tokenized stocks and ETFs, expected to be fully operational by late 2026 [7]

Core Insights - Robinhood's stock price experienced a significant decline following its 2025 financial report, despite absolute revenue and net profit growth, indicating market disappointment due to unmet expectations. Group 1: Core Growth Engine - The cryptocurrency business has significantly declined, with Q4 trading revenue dropping 38% year-over-year and nominal trading volume halving to $34 billion, suggesting a decrease in retail investor enthusiasm or a shift to more specialized platforms [1] - The acquisition of Bitstamp has not compensated for the lack of internal growth, highlighting a critical weakness in Robinhood's core business [1] Group 2: Cost Control Issues - Total operating expenses surged by 38% year-over-year in Q4, outpacing revenue growth of 27%, which directly erodes profit margins [2] - Management's guidance for 2026 indicates an expected 18% increase in adjusted operating expenses, reaching $2.6 billion to $2.725 billion, raising concerns among investors about aggressive spending in an uncertain macro environment [2] Group 3: Regulatory and Macro Risks - The financial report excluded "significant regulatory costs" from the 2026 outlook, indicating potential for unpredictable large fines that could impact financial stability [3] - Although Q4 net interest income increased, it was negatively affected by the "decline in short-term interest rates," suggesting that the high-interest period for Robinhood may be nearing its end as the Federal Reserve continues its rate cuts [3] Group 4: Valuation Reassessment - The market's previous high valuation of Robinhood was based on its growth potential, but with negative growth in the cryptocurrency sector, rising customer acquisition costs, and regulatory uncertainties in prediction markets, there is a shift in how the market views its valuation [3] - The impressive "record" figures do not mask the underlying weakness in core operations, leading to a sharp correction in stock price expectations amid regulatory unknowns, uncontrolled costs, and declining trading volumes [3]

Robinhood Skids On Q4 Miss, Cues 'Prediction Markets Supercycle' | Investor's Business DailyBREAKING: [Jobs Report Strong: Payrolls Up 130,000 While Jobless Rate Falls]---Robinhood tumbled early Wednesday after posting a big fourth-quarter revenue miss and a decline in monthly active users. Shares of the mobile broker have taken a four-week skid amid a cryptocurrency sell-off, with the price of bitcoin down about 22% since the end of January. Robinhood Markets (HOOD) reported a 35% decline in earnings to 66 ...

Bernstein sees 87% upside for Robinhood as prediction markets surge, says 'crypto jitters' are temporary https://t.co/fJjs1TSzMr ...

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) saw a surge in its “Other Trading Revenue” (mainly from prediction markets) in 2025. The revenue jumped from $31 million at the end of 2024 to $147 million in December 2025. Robinhood’s prediction markets are powered by Kalahi. The increase in trading volume may be related to the Super Bowl. https://t.co/f03ESFY1AE ...

Employment and Economic Outlook - The employment report is anticipated to show an increase in U.S. job growth despite a sluggish labor market, influenced by tariff uncertainty and tighter immigration enforcement [1][8] - Retail sales have stalled unexpectedly, raising the probability of an interest-rate reduction in April to 35.5% from 32.2% [1][8] - Markets are pricing in the first interest rate cut to occur in June, coinciding with the expected Senate approval of President Trump's Fed chair nominee, Kevin Warsh [2][8] Corporate Earnings and Market Reactions - Cloudflare's shares surged by 14% following a better-than-expected forecast for annual and first-quarter sales [5][8] - Robinhood's shares fell by 7.2% after reporting fourth-quarter revenue below Wall Street expectations [6][8] - Lyft's shares dropped 17% due to a quarterly profit forecast and annual ride volumes that did not meet Wall Street expectations [9][8] Legislative and Regulatory Developments - The U.S. House of Representatives rejected a Republican bid to block challenges to Trump's tariffs, potentially allowing Democrats to reverse tariffs imposed on Canada [7][8] - A Supreme Court ruling on the legality of the tariffs is expected in the coming months [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - Robinhood Markets emphasizes the evolving role of cryptocurrency, suggesting it will become more than just an asset class and will serve as a foundational technology in the future [1] Group 1: Company Position on Crypto - The company is positioning itself to adapt to a future where cryptocurrency plays a significant role beyond traditional investment [1]

Core Insights - Robinhood, valued at approximately $76 billion, is launching its own blockchain named Robinhood Chain, aiming to integrate traditional finance (TradFi) with decentralized finance (DeFi) [1] Group 1: Blockchain Launch and Features - Robinhood's new Layer 2 (L2) blockchain, announced on February 10, leverages Arbitrum's technology and is fully compatible with Ethereum, allowing for the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) [2] - The Robinhood Chain is powered by Arbitrum Orbit, which enhances performance, reduces fees, and ensures security through Ethereum, processing transactions in batches for efficiency [3] - The chain embeds compliance at the protocol level, ensuring regulatory adherence for tokenized assets like equities and ETFs, with over 1,000 tokenized assets already available in the EU [3] Group 2: Developer Access and Tools - Developers can access testnet-only assets in an Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) environment, utilizing tools and APIs to create innovative DeFi applications that integrate tokenized stocks and ETFs [4] - Robinhood has partnered with Chainlink as its oracle provider to ensure reliable pricing and settlements, mitigating risks associated with bridge exploits and sequencer downtime [4] Group 3: Market Position and Competition - RWA tokenization is a significant trend in the upcoming 2025-26 bull cycle, attracting interest from major players like BlackRock [5] - Robinhood's L2 testnet enables on-chain trading of real stocks and ETFs, offering 24/7 trading with low fees while maintaining regulatory compliance, bridging TradFi and DeFi [6] - The rebranding of securities tokenization to RWAs has increased adoption, particularly among institutional investors, positioning Robinhood Chain in a competitive L2 landscape alongside Arbitrum and Optimism, with Coinbase's Base as a notable rival [7]

Core Insights - Robinhood's CEO Vlad Tenev highlighted that prediction markets are the company's fastest-growing segment, with potential to "drive trillions in annual volume over time" [1][7] - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has withdrawn its proposed rulemaking on event contracts and will pursue a new regulatory approach [4][7] Expansion of Prediction Markets - Robinhood is actively expanding event contracts within its app and is developing market infrastructure through Rothera, a joint venture with Susquehanna aimed at operating a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse [2][5] - Tenev reported that over 12 billion prediction market contracts were traded on Robinhood in 2025, with more than 4 billion contracts traded in 2026 so far [3][7] Regulatory Developments - The CFTC's withdrawal of the proposed rules on event contracts, effective February 4, 2026, indicates a shift in regulatory focus [4][7] - The agency has also withdrawn a sports-related event contracts advisory and plans to advance new rulemaking [4] Market Infrastructure and Future Outlook - The establishment of Rothera is part of Robinhood's strategy to enhance its prediction markets, with control over execution and clearing expected to influence pricing and compliance [5] - The prediction markets are showing signs of scaling beyond niche audiences, indicating a growing interest in this segment [6]

Core Viewpoint - Robinhood's stock dropped 7.6% in pre-market trading, reflecting investor concerns over its Q4 performance despite some positive earnings metrics [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q4 increased by 27% year-over-year to $1.28 billion, but fell short of analyst expectations of $1.351 billion [1] - Net profit decreased by 34% year-over-year to $605 million, resulting in earnings per share of $0.66, which slightly exceeded analyst expectations of $0.65 [1] Cryptocurrency Revenue - Revenue from cryptocurrency trading declined by 38% year-over-year to $221 million, which was below market expectations [1]