Robinhood ( HOOD ) reported its 4Q25 after the bell on Tuesday. Heading into print, the stock was falling out of market favor, having shed almost 32% of its value YTD and dropping from highs of $153.86 to $76.81. The quarter's resultsWe’re a team of former technology engineers who turned our passion for the sector into an investing edge. With over 40 years of combined experience, we’ve learned that individual investors often don’t get access to the same depth of research as institutions.That’s why we create ...

Market Sentiment - The CNN Money Fear and Greed index showed a decline in overall market sentiment, remaining in the "Neutral" zone with a current reading of 48.9, down from 50.9 [1][4] - U.S. stocks settled mostly lower, with the Dow Jones index falling more than 50 points, ending a three-session winning streak [1][3] Economic Data - Nonfarm payrolls rose by 130,000, nearly double the economists' expectations of 70,000, with private-sector employment contributing 172,000 of those gains [2] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 4.3% from 4.4% [2] Sector Performance - Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed positively, with energy, materials, and consumer staples stocks recording the biggest gains [2] - Financial and communication services stocks closed lower, bucking the overall market trend [2] Company Highlights - Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) saw a significant increase of around 10% after Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $450 [1]

Core Insights - Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, significantly increased its position in Robinhood Markets Inc. by acquiring over 433,000 shares across multiple ETFs despite a recent 8% drop in the stock price following a 38% decline in crypto revenue [1][2] Group 1: Robinhood Markets Inc. - The trade on Wednesday was valued at approximately $33.9 million based on Robinhood's closing stock price of $78.07 [2] - The stock experienced an 8% decline after a substantial 38% drop in crypto revenue [1] Group 2: Other Trades - On the same day, Ark Invest also purchased shares of Figma Inc. [1] - Ark sold a significant amount of shares in Airbnb Inc. [1]

Market Overview - The trading day ended with the S&P 500 finishing flat, the Nasdaq down by approximately 0.2%, and the Dow Jones down by about 0.1% [7] - Small-cap stocks were the biggest losers, with the index down about 0.4% as expectations for Fed rate cuts were pushed out [7] Sector Performance - In the S&P 500, 285 stocks were higher while 218 were lower, indicating a slight positive sentiment [8] - The energy sector saw a gain of 2.6%, while consumer staples and materials rose by 1.4% and 1.3%, respectively [9] - Financials, communication services, and consumer discretionary sectors lagged behind [9] Company Earnings - McDonald's reported a 5.7% increase in comparable sales for Q4, exceeding the estimate of 3.76%, with total revenue slightly above $7 billion compared to the expected $6.83 billion [10][11] - The company's focus on value has resonated with cost-conscious consumers, leading to an 8% increase in global systemwide sales [12][13] - Cisco's second-quarter adjusted earnings per share beat estimates, with total revenue also surpassing expectations at $5.3 billion [20][22] Notable Gainers - GENERAC Holdings saw a significant gain of about 18% after forecasting a 2026 EBITDA margin above analyst consensus, despite missing Q4 net sales estimates [15][16] - Smurfit Westrock gained nearly 10% after reporting adjusted EBITDA that beat analyst estimates, with the stock up about 30% year-to-date [18] - Micron Technology rose almost 10% as the company assured investors of high-volume production of its new memory chips [19] Notable Decliners - Mattel's shares plummeted by 25%, marking the largest drop since 1999, after holiday results fell short of analyst expectations [24] - Robinhood's stock fell by 8.8% due to lower fourth-quarter profits linked to declines in cryptocurrency values [25] - Lyft's shares dropped by 17% following a disappointing forecast and missed Wall Street estimates [29]

Core Insights - Robinhood's CEO Vlad Tenev predicts a "supercycle" in prediction markets that could lead to trillions of dollars in annual trading volume [1][2] - The company's quarterly sales fell short of estimates, primarily due to a significant drop in cryptocurrency trading volumes [1][2] Company Performance - Robinhood's shares dropped nearly 9% following the announcement of disappointing fourth-quarter results, with revenue missing analysts' expectations [1][2] - The company reported that its prediction markets volume more than doubled in the fourth quarter, reaching $12 billion in contracts for the first full year of operations in 2025, with $4 billion already recorded this year [1][2] Industry Trends - Prediction markets have seen substantial growth recently, with Robinhood aiming to compete against established players like Kalshi and Polymarket [1][2] - The company plans to launch its own prediction market, operated as a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group, later this year, which may enhance its control over contract offerings and improve profit margins [1][2] Future Outlook - Investors can expect more details on Robinhood's upcoming projects during the "Take Flight" event scheduled for March 4, where new products are anticipated to be introduced [1][2] - Despite the recent downturn, Tenev remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of the cryptocurrency industry and plans to expand crypto offerings alongside the prediction markets business [1][2]

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Core Viewpoint - Robinhood Markets experienced a significant decline in stock price following disappointing Q4 2025 earnings, primarily due to weak cryptocurrency performance [1][4]. Financial Performance - Robinhood reported a record revenue of $4.5 billion for 2025, but Q4 results fell short of analyst expectations [4]. - The company's stock closed at $77.97, down 8.91%, with trading volume reaching 68.3 million shares, which is 146% above its three-month average of 27.8 million shares [1]. Market Context - The S&P 500 remained stable at 6,941, while the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 0.16% to 23,066 [2]. - Competitors in the financial services sector, such as Charles Schwab and Interactive Brokers, also saw declines in their stock prices [2]. Cryptocurrency Impact - Cryptocurrency prices have been on a downward trend since October, with Bitcoin losing 43% of its value over the past six months [3]. - Robinhood, as a leading crypto broker, has been affected by this volatility, experiencing a decline of over 30% in the same timeframe [3]. Analyst Reactions - Analysts from Piper Sandler, JPMorgan, and Compass Point have lowered their price targets for Robinhood following the mixed Q4 results [4]. - Investor confidence has been shaken due to disappointing revenue from crypto and options trading [5]. Future Prospects - Robinhood is making efforts to diversify its offerings, including initiatives in blockchain and decentralized finance products [5].

RT Jason Shubnell (@JasonShubnell)Bernstein analysts said Robinhood’s 38% drop in crypto revenue reflects temporary "jitters," with $HOOD's 24% YTD selloff already pricing in a bear-case scenario.Crypto transaction revenue fell to $221 million, down from a record high of $360 million in Q4 2024. https://t.co/BQENR4u5Eu ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock market showed positive movement with Dow Jones and S&P 500 futures rising ahead of the January jobs report, while Astera Labs and Robinhood experienced significant declines due to earnings reports [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Dow Jones futures increased by 0.2% along with S&P 500 futures, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [1]. - Nasdaq 100 also showed positive trading activity, contributing to the overall market optimism [1]. Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - Astera Labs (ALAB) stock dropped despite reporting solid Q4 results and guidance, reflecting market disappointment or profit-taking [1]. - Robinhood Markets (HOOD) retreated following a Q4 earnings miss, which may signal challenges in its business model or market conditions [1]. - Both companies are highlighted as significant movers in the current trading session, indicating their impact on market sentiment [1].

Group 1: Nvidia - Nvidia's stock rose by 0.78% with a trading volume of $27.357 billion, and UBS raised its target price from $235 to $245 [1] - Goldman Sachs increased its earnings forecast for Nvidia's Q4 FY2026 and maintained a target price of $250, emphasizing the visibility of revenue for 2027 as a key catalyst [1] - Over 90% of analysts rated Nvidia as "Buy" or "Hold," with an average target price of $260.26, reflecting optimistic expectations for AI computing demand [1] Group 2: Tesla - Tesla's stock increased by 0.80% with a trading volume of $24.343 billion, amid reports of the departure of Vice President Raj Jaganathan after 13 years with the company [10] - This departure is part of a recent trend of executive exits from Tesla and xAI [10] Group 3: Micron - Micron's stock surged by 9.94% with a trading volume of $19.06 billion, as Morgan Stanley raised its target price from $350 to $450 while maintaining an "Overweight" rating [10] - The new target price exceeds Micron's closing price of $410.34, aligning with a generally positive outlook from analysts [10] Group 4: Microsoft - Microsoft's stock fell by 2.15% with a trading volume of $16.655 billion, coinciding with Bill Gates' unexpected visit to Shanghai for an event [2][11] Group 5: Google - Google's Class A shares (GOOGL) declined by 2.39% with a trading volume of $14.044 billion, as the company introduced a new feature allowing consumers to purchase products directly through its AI-driven search engine and Gemini chatbot [11] - This initiative is part of Google's broader strategy to monetize user interactions with AI [11] Group 6: SanDisk and Palantir - SanDisk's stock rose by 10.65% with a trading volume of $11.951 billion, contributing to a general increase in storage sector stocks [12] - Palantir's stock fell by 2.75% with a trading volume of $7.071 billion, although Daiwa Capital Markets upgraded its rating from Neutral to Buy, while lowering the target price from $200 to $180 [12] Group 7: Shopify - Shopify's stock decreased by 6.70% with a trading volume of $6.221 billion, as the company positions "agent commerce" as an expansion channel rather than a product feature [12] - The company's president noted that orders from AI-driven searches are approximately 15 times higher than the same period last year, indicating significant growth potential [12]