Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year increase in HP's earnings and revenues for the quarter ending January 2026, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - HP is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.77 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 4.1%, with revenues projected at $14.06 billion, also up 4.1% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.9% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts regarding HP's earnings prospects [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that the Most Accurate Estimate for HP is lower than the consensus estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -0.65%, suggesting a bearish outlook [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, HP exceeded earnings expectations with a surprise of +2.20%, but has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once in the last four quarters [13][14]. Investment Considerations - Despite the potential for an earnings beat, other factors may influence stock movement, and HP does not currently appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings surprise [15][17].

Group 1 - Citigroup has lowered HP's target price from $22 to $20 [1]

Core Viewpoint - HP Inc. has raised its quarterly dividend to $0.30 per share, marking 10 consecutive years of increases since its separation in 2015, but there are underlying concerns regarding future growth due to rising memory costs and a soft consumer PC market [1][2]. Dividend and Financial Metrics - The annual dividend has increased from $0.50 per share in 2016 to $1.20 per share in 2026, reflecting an annual growth rate of over 9% [4]. - HP's free cash flow for fiscal 2025 was $2.9 billion, resulting in a sustainable payout ratio of approximately 41% [5]. - Analysts project free cash flow to rise to $3.60 per share by fiscal 2030, with the annual dividend expected to grow to $1.43 per share in the same year [7]. Challenges Facing the Company - HP is facing significant headwinds from rising memory costs, which are expected to reduce earnings by about $0.30 per share in the second half of fiscal 2026, impacting Personal Systems margins by approximately 90 basis points [9]. - Memory costs currently account for 15% to 18% of a typical PC's total cost, and the recent surge in prices has prompted HP to adopt a more cautious approach to its financial guidance [9][10]. - Despite having long-term agreements with suppliers, the current memory cycle presents unique challenges that differ from previous cycles [10].

Group 1: Oil and Gas Sector - Oil stocks experienced a decline, with Sinopec (00386) down 3.89%, PetroChina (00857) down 3.17%, and CNOOC (00883) down 2.79%. This follows a drop in WTI crude oil futures by 2.77% to $62.84 per barrel and Brent crude by 2.71% to $67.52 per barrel [1] Group 2: Renewable Energy Sector - Solar stocks fell collectively, with Xinyi Solar (00968) down 3.62% and New Special Energy (01799) down 3.61%. The rise in silver prices has increased silver paste costs, impacting the battery and component sectors [1] Group 3: Precious Metals Sector - Lao Poo Gold (06181) saw a nearly 5% drop. Bank of America Securities reported that the company is expected to benefit from rising gold prices, with a projected revenue increase of 165% year-on-year for the second half of last year [1] Group 4: Pharmaceuticals - Zai Lab (09688) rose by 7% after its injection drug ZL-1310 was proposed for breakthrough therapy designation for extensive-stage small cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC), showing promising early clinical data [2] Group 5: Precision Manufacturing - China High Precision (00591) fell over 18% after issuing a profit warning, expecting a profit of approximately RMB 2.5 million to RMB 4.5 million for the six months ending December 31, 2025, due to project delays in the oil and petrochemical sectors [2] Group 6: Non-Ferrous Metals - Non-ferrous stocks faced significant declines, with China Nonferrous Mining (01258) down 5.08% and Zijin Mining (02899) down 5.29%. This is attributed to a "de-risking" sentiment in global financial markets, leading to a sell-off in precious metals [3] Group 7: Biotechnology - Xiansheng Pharmaceutical (02096) increased over 4.4% after announcing a licensing agreement with AbbVie for the investigational drug SIM0500, which includes upfront payments and potential milestone payments totaling up to $1.055 billion [3] Group 8: Gaming Sector - Gaming stocks declined, with Melco International Development (00200) down 6.21%. Wynn Macau reported a 7% year-on-year drop in EBITDA for Q4 2025, which was below market expectations [4] Group 9: Oilfield Services - Anton Oilfield Services (03337) rose over 9% after announcing a profit forecast of approximately RMB 360 million to RMB 380 million for 2025, representing a significant year-on-year increase of 48.4% to 56.6% [4] Group 10: U.S. Market Movements - Arko Petroleum (APC.US) opened with a 2.5% decline after its market debut. The company delivered 1.5 billion gallons of fuel in the nine months ending September 30, 2025 [5] - Albemarle (ALB.US) fell 9.41% despite a 16% year-on-year increase in Q4 sales to $1.4 billion, reporting a net loss of $414 million [5] - Boeing (BA.US) rose 1.31% as it plans to increase the monthly production of its 737 series aircraft to 63 units in the coming years [5] Group 11: Technology Sector - Cisco (CSCO.US) dropped 12.32% as it projected a decline in adjusted gross margin for Q3, indicating a worsening trend compared to previous quarters [7] - Storage stocks saw gains, with SanDisk (SNDK.US) up 5.16% and Western Digital (WDC.US) up 3.78% [7]

Market Overview - Wall Street experienced declines, particularly in technology stocks, with a notable rotation into cyclical sectors like industrials, which are performing strongly [1] - Key holdings in the portfolio, including Dupont, Dover, Honeywell, Linde, GE Vernova, and Eaton, have shown extraordinary year-to-date performance, while the S&P 500 has only slightly increased [1] Portfolio Management - The decision to trim positions in Eaton and Procter & Gamble was made to maintain portfolio discipline as these stocks benefited from the market rotation [1] - A prior decision to reduce Cisco holdings before its earnings report was validated as shares fell over 10% following the announcement [1] Cisco's Performance - Cisco reported a strong quarter with networking order growth exceeding 20%, marking six consecutive quarters of double-digit growth, driven by AI hardware demand [1] - Despite the positive growth, a dip in gross margins due to rising memory prices caused concern among investors [1] - Management's actions to leverage pricing power and robust order growth led to an increase in full-year earnings guidance, indicating a commitment to long-term performance [1] Impact on Related Companies - Apple shares fell over 3% in response to Cisco's warning about memory prices, with PC makers Dell Technologies and HP Inc. experiencing even larger declines of 9% and 6%, respectively [1] - Memory prices are a critical factor for these companies, raising concerns about future margins [1] Apple Developments - Apple is facing challenges with the rollout of the Siri upgrade, which is now expected to be staggered throughout the year instead of a full launch in March [1] - Despite the delay, strong iPhone sales are ongoing, suggesting that the slower Siri rollout may not significantly impact Apple's overall performance [1] - The partnership with Google's Gemini AI models has created optimism regarding the potential value of the Siri upgrade [1]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones up by 0.46%, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.31% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.09% [1] - Major tech stocks experienced varied performance, with Nvidia rising by 0.7% and Amazon and Apple both declining by over 1% [3] Semiconductor Sector - Storage concept stocks continued to perform well, with Seagate Technology rising by 11%, Western Digital by over 8%, SanDisk by over 8%, and Micron Technology by over 3% [3] - Micron Technology announced that its new NAND flash wafer plant is on track to begin shipments in the second half of 2028, with HBM4 customer shipments expected to increase in the first quarter of 2028, one quarter ahead of schedule. The CFO indicated that market demand exceeds supply, and this tight supply situation is expected to persist until after 2026 [3] Retail Sector - Major U.S. retailers saw collective gains, with Walmart rising over 2% to reach a historical high, Macy's up nearly 4%, Kohl's up nearly 3%, and Ross Stores up over 2% [4] - McDonald's reported a 9.5% year-over-year revenue increase to $7 billion for the fourth quarter, with adjusted earnings per share of $3.12, exceeding expectations [4] Software Sector - Software stocks faced significant sell-offs, with Cisco's stock plummeting over 9%, marking its largest drop in 2023. Despite an increase in AI demand leading to an upward revision of annual guidance, the gross margin guidance for the current quarter fell short of expectations [4] - Other software stocks showed mixed results post-earnings, with Fastly surging over 60%, HubSpot up over 10%, and Applovin dropping over 14% [4][5] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. experienced a collective decline, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling by 1.4%. Tencent Music dropped nearly 6%, while other companies like Huya, Boss Zhipin, and Beike fell over 4% [6] Commodity Market - Precious metals saw a decline, with spot gold down by 0.37% at $5065 per ounce and spot silver down by 1.43% at $83 per ounce [8] - International oil prices also fell, with Brent crude futures down about 1% to $68.75 per barrel and WTI crude futures down about 1% to $63.99 per barrel [8] Cryptocurrency Market - The majority of cryptocurrencies saw an increase, with Bitcoin rising by 0.96%, remaining below $68,000. In the last 24 hours, 118,000 individuals experienced liquidations [10][11]

Group 1 - Dell's stock price decreased by 3.2% [1] - HP Inc.'s stock price fell by 3.4% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The computer hardware sector is experiencing a downturn, with significant declines in stock prices for major companies like Dell and HP due to rising memory and storage costs, which have increased by approximately 40% to 70% from Q1 to Q4 of 2025, impacting consumer prices [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - Memory manufacturers are prioritizing higher-margin products such as server-grade DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI infrastructure, leading to a shortage of standard DDR memory for personal computers [1] - PC manufacturers are warning of potential difficulties for consumers in 2026, not due to shortages of CPUs or GPUs, but because of a memory shortage crisis that will increase material costs and force manufacturers to make difficult configuration choices [1] Group 2: Market Projections - IDC research manager Jitesh Ubrani forecasts a potential 9% decline in PC shipments in 2026, bringing total shipments down to approximately 260 million units, slightly below the 263.3 million units expected in 2024 and close to the levels seen in 2023, which was one of the worst years in PC history [1]

Core Viewpoint - The computer hardware sector is facing significant challenges due to rising memory and storage costs, which have increased by approximately 40% to 70% from Q1 to Q4 of 2025, impacting consumer prices and product configurations [1] Group 1: Market Impact - Dell Technologies (DELL.US) shares fell over 4%, while HP (HPQ.US) shares dropped more than 3% amid concerns over rising costs [1] - The shortage of standard DDR memory for laptops and desktops is attributed to manufacturers prioritizing higher-margin server-grade DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI infrastructure [1] Group 2: Future Projections - PC manufacturers warn that 2026 may present significant challenges for consumers, not due to CPU or GPU shortages, but because of a memory shortage crisis that will increase bill of materials costs [1] - IDC research manager Jitesh Ubrani forecasts a potential 9% decline in PC shipments in 2026, bringing total shipments to approximately 260 million units, slightly below 2024's estimated 263.3 million units and close to 2023's levels, which was one of the worst years in PC history [1]

Group 1 - Dell's pre-market stock price declined by 2.7% [1] - HP Inc.'s stock price fell by 2.4% [1]