Group 1 - The US stock market will close three hours early on December 24 due to the Christmas holiday [1] - Trading for US Treasury futures at CME will end early at 03:30 Beijing time on December 25 [1] - Trading for CME's precious metals, energy, and foreign exchange futures will conclude early at 02:45 Beijing time on December 25 [1] Group 2 - US stock market will be closed for the entire day on December 25 [1] - All trading for US Treasury futures at CME will be suspended for the day [1] - Trading for CME's precious metals, crude oil, foreign exchange, and stock index futures will also be suspended for the entire day [1] - Trading for Brent crude oil futures at ICE will be halted for the entire day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the influence of structural power on commodity pricing, emphasizing that this influence is formed through the combined effects of production, trade, finance, and information dimensions. It highlights the evolution of the global cotton pricing center and outlines both the favorable conditions and constraints faced by China in enhancing its commodity pricing influence [1][2]. Group 1: Structural Power in Commodity Pricing - Structural power, as defined by Susan Strange, refers to the ability of certain countries or organizations to shape and influence the behavior of others through the establishment of rules and standards in the international political economy [3]. - In the global commodity market, structural power can be obtained through various channels, including production, trade, finance, and information [3]. Group 2: Production Structural Power - Possessing resource endowments is fundamental for gaining pricing influence, as seen with the U.S. being a leading exporter of corn, sorghum, and soybeans, significantly impacting global food prices [4]. - Cross-border capital control over production resources allows entities to influence commodity production decisions, as demonstrated by large mining groups and multinational financial capital [4]. - Technological advancements have led to increased production efficiency, exemplified by the U.S. shale gas production rising from 11 billion cubic meters in 2000 to 840 billion cubic meters in 2024, making the U.S. the largest natural gas producer and exporter [4]. Group 3: Trade Structural Power - Developed countries influence global commodity trade through the establishment of trade rules and policies, affecting pricing and market conditions [5]. - Major grain traders dominate approximately 70% of international grain and oilseed trade, significantly impacting agricultural prices [5]. - Control over shipping logistics is crucial, as over 80% of international trade is conducted via maritime transport, with shipping costs affecting commodity prices [5]. Group 4: Financial Structural Power - The dominance of the U.S. dollar as the primary currency for commodity pricing and settlement significantly influences global commodity prices, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes impacting demand [6]. - The U.S. and other developed nations lead the international financial system, affecting commodity trade through cross-border payment systems [6]. - Established futures exchanges in the U.S. and Europe serve as pricing centers for energy, metals, and agricultural products, with regulatory frameworks influencing market operations [6]. Group 5: Information Structural Power - The release of price information and data by developed countries serves as authoritative references for global commodity markets, impacting price trends [7]. - Price benchmarks established by reporting agencies play a critical role in setting market prices for non-standardized commodities [7]. - Market forecasts from international financial institutions can directly influence market expectations and pricing [7]. Group 6: Evolution of Commodity Pricing Influence - The historical evolution of the global cotton pricing center illustrates the shifting role of structural power across different periods and countries [8]. - From the 16th to 18th centuries, colonial economies dominated cotton trade, with Western European countries exerting significant influence over pricing through direct control [9]. - The 19th century marked the emergence of structural power in cotton pricing, with the U.K. becoming the global center due to industrial advancements and trade networks [11]. - Post-19th century, the U.S. emerged as a leading cotton producer and established futures trading, solidifying its position as the global pricing center [12]. Group 7: Conditions and Constraints for China - Favorable conditions for China include its large market size, diversified international trade, ongoing internationalization of the RMB, and rapid development of its futures market [13][14]. - Constraints include reliance on imported raw materials, the dichotomy between domestic and international markets, insufficient internationalization of the futures market, and weak information influence [15][16]. Group 8: Recommendations for Enhancing Pricing Influence - China should integrate the enhancement of commodity pricing influence into its strategic framework, supporting enterprises in global mergers and investments [17]. - Tailored policies should be implemented to enhance futures pricing influence based on specific commodities, particularly in regions like the Belt and Road Initiative [17]. - Building a world-class futures market and fostering commodity service providers and information institutions are essential for strengthening pricing influence [18].

Core Viewpoint - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures saw a majority of contracts rise, indicating a positive trend in the agricultural commodities market on December 23 [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Raw sugar futures increased by 1.20%, closing at 15.17 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures rose by 0.64%, ending at 64.02 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures climbed by 0.95%, reaching $5,943.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures experienced a slight decline of 0.17%, closing at 346.75 cents per pound [1]

Core Insights - Parnassus Investments reported that the S&P 500 Index increased by 8.12% in Q3 2025, driven by investor optimism regarding monetary easing, strong consumer demand, and solid corporate earnings [1] - The Parnassus Core Equity Fund (Investor Shares) returned 2.57% in Q3 2025, underperforming the S&P 500 Index, with a year-to-date return of 9.89% compared to the index's 14.83% [1] Company Analysis: Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE) - Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE) experienced a one-month return of 3.52% and a 52-week gain of 7.30%, with its stock closing at $161.45 per share and a market capitalization of $92.06 billion as of December 22, 2025 [2] - The company saw a decline in its stock price as investors shifted away from defensive, lower-beta stocks that had previously benefited from market enthusiasm, although its fundamentals remain stable [3] - Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. was held by 82 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q3 2025, a slight decrease from 84 in the previous quarter, indicating a stable interest among hedge funds [3] - Despite acknowledging the potential of Intercontinental Exchange, the company believes that certain AI stocks present greater upside potential and lower downside risk [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) saw a majority of its agricultural futures contracts rise, indicating a positive trend in the agricultural commodities market on December 22. Group 1: Sugar Futures - Raw sugar futures increased by 1.21%, closing at 15.00 cents per pound [1]. Group 2: Cotton Futures - Cotton futures experienced a slight decline, falling by 0.22% to close at 63.61 cents per pound [1]. Group 3: Cocoa Futures - Cocoa futures rose by 0.60%, reaching a price of 5,880.00 dollars per ton [1]. Group 4: Coffee Futures - Coffee futures saw a significant increase of 2.22%, closing at 348.20 cents per pound [1].

Core Insights - Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) is currently trading above its 50-day simple moving average, indicating a short-term bullish trend, with a share price of $160.07 as of December 18, 2025, down 15.4% from its 52-week high of $189.35 [1] Market Performance - ICE has a market capitalization of $91.62 billion, with an average trading volume of 3.8 million shares over the last three months [2] - Over the past year, ICE shares have gained 6.5%, while the industry has grown by 8.7%, outperforming OTC Markets Group Inc., which has lost 1.9% [4][8] Valuation Metrics - ICE shares are trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21.42X, which is lower than the industry average of 24.1X, presenting a better entry point for investors [3] Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ICE's 2025 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 13.6%, with revenues projected at $9.88 billion, reflecting a 6.4% improvement [9] - For 2026, earnings per share and revenues are expected to increase by 8.5% and 5.8%, respectively, compared to 2025 estimates [9] Analyst Price Targets - The average price target for ICE, based on short-term projections from 18 analysts, is $191.07 per share, suggesting a potential upside of 18.7% from the last closing price [10] Business Strengths - ICE's revenue is expected to improve due to strengths in global data services, index business, and pricing data, alongside expense synergies from strategic acquisitions [7][11] - The company has the largest mortgage network in the U.S., positioning it well to benefit from the digitization of the residential mortgage industry [12] Revenue Drivers - Continued adoption of digital solutions and revenues from the MSP mortgage servicing system and default management are anticipated to drive growth in Mortgage Technology revenues, with expectations of low-to-mid single-digit growth for 2025 [15] Financial Stability - ICE maintains a healthy balance sheet with minimal risk, providing stability and buoyancy for medium to long-term growth [16] Dividend History - The company has demonstrated an impressive dividend history, having more than doubled its dividends over the last six years [18]

Core Insights - Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is negotiating an investment in crypto payments firm MoonPay, potentially valuing the company at approximately $5 billion, a 47% increase from its previous valuation of $3.4 billion [1][2]. Group 1: Investment and Valuation - The potential valuation of MoonPay reflects a significant increase, coming shortly after the company received approval from the New York Department of Financial Services [2]. - ICE's investment is part of its strategy to expand into emerging financial technologies, complementing its existing crypto platform, Bakkt, and a recent $2 billion investment in Polymarket [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Developments - MoonPay is transitioning from a cryptocurrency on-ramp provider to a full-service digital asset custodian, enabled by a Limited Purpose Trust Charter that allows it to expand custody and crypto services in New York [5]. - This regulatory milestone positions MoonPay in competition with established players under New York's stringent digital asset licensing requirements, which include anti-money laundering protocols and consumer protection standards [6]. Group 3: Leadership Changes - MoonPay has appointed Caroline Pham, the acting chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as its chief legal officer, signaling a focus on regulatory compliance [7].

Core Insights - Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the owner of the NYSE, is reportedly in discussions to participate in a financing round for the crypto payments firm MoonPay [2] Company Summary - MoonPay is nearing a financing round, indicating potential growth and interest in the crypto payments sector [2]

🚨 NEW: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), owner of the NYSE, is in talks to invest in crypto payments firm @moonpay as part of a new funding round.MoonPay is targeting a ~$5B valuation, per Bloomberg. https://t.co/dAB8NZLQde ...

Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, is in talks to invest in crypto payments firm MoonPay as part of a funding round, people familiar with the matter said https://t.co/vpWqgfO5bF ...