Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) has experienced a notable 3.3% increase in its share price over the past year, outperforming the broader oil and energy sector, which saw a decline of 7.2%. The company has also outpaced its competitors within the Canadian Oil and Gas Exploration and Production sub-industry, with Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE) and Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) reporting declines of 32.5% and 19.8%, respectively, during the same time. Such relative strength naturally leads investors to ask: I ...

Financial Performance - Net income for Q1 2025 was CAD 1,288 million, an increase from CAD 1,195 million in Q1 2024, representing a 7.8% year-over-year growth[44] - Cash flows from operating activities increased to CAD 1,527 million in Q1 2025, up from CAD 1,076 million in Q1 2024, reflecting higher upstream realizations[53] - Dividends paid increased to CAD 307 million in Q1 2025 from CAD 278 million in Q1 2024, with per share dividends rising to CAD 0.60 from CAD 0.50[55] Production and Operations - Kearl's production decreased to 181,000 barrels per day in Q1 2025 from 196,000 barrels per day in Q1 2024, primarily due to extreme cold weather and unplanned downtime[47] - Production at Cold Lake increased to 154,000 barrels per day in Q1 2025 from 142,000 barrels per day in Q1 2024, driven by Grand Rapids solvent-assisted SAGD[48] - Refinery throughput decreased to 397,000 barrels per day in Q1 2025 from 407,000 barrels per day in Q1 2024, with refinery capacity utilization dropping to 91% from 94%[50] Market Conditions - Average bitumen realizations increased by CAD 8.75 per barrel, driven by a narrowing WTI/WCS spread, while synthetic crude oil realizations rose by CAD 5.28 per barrel[45] - The average foreign exchange rate was CAD 0.70 per USD in Q1 2025, compared to CAD 0.74 per USD in Q1 2024[46] - The company continues to monitor the volatile global trade environment, with uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs and trade sanctions on operations[43] Strategic Focus - The company is focused on executing its project plans, including the Strathcona renewable diesel project and autonomous operations at Kearl, amidst various market risks[58]

Imperial Oil (IMO) reported $8.72 billion in revenue for the quarter ended March 2025, representing a year-over-year decline of 4.3%. EPS of $1.75 for the same period compares to $1.65 a year ago.The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $11.11 billion, representing a surprise of -21.51%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +15.13%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $1.52.While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and h ...

Imperial Oil (IMO) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.75 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.52 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.65 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 15.13%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this oil and gas and petroleum products company would post earnings of $1.42 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.69, delivering a surprise of 19.01%.Over the l ...

Financial Performance - Net income for Q1 2025 was $1,288 million, an increase of $93 million from Q1 2024, with diluted earnings per share rising to $2.52 from $2.23[3] - Total revenues for Q1 2025 were CAD 12,517 million, an increase from CAD 12,283 million in Q1 2024, representing a growth of 1.9%[39] - Net income for Q1 2025 was CAD 1,288 million, compared to CAD 1,195 million in Q1 2024, reflecting an increase of 7.8%[39] - Earnings per share (diluted) for Q1 2025 were CAD 2.52, up from CAD 2.23 in Q1 2024, indicating a growth of 13.0%[39] - Total expenses for Q1 2025 were CAD 10,829 million, slightly up from CAD 10,711 million in Q1 2024, indicating a 1.1% increase[62] Cash Flow and Dividends - Cash flows from operating activities were $1,527 million, up from $1,076 million in Q1 2024, while cash flows excluding working capital increased to $1,760 million from $1,521 million[11] - The company returned $307 million to shareholders through dividends in Q1 2025, with a declared second quarter dividend of $0.72 per share[7] - Dividends declared on common stock increased to CAD 367 million in Q1 2025 from CAD 321 million in Q1 2024, representing a growth of 14.3%[39] - Free cash flow for Q1 2025 was CAD 1,150 million, significantly higher than CAD 595 million in Q1 2024, representing a 93% increase[58] Production and Operations - Upstream production averaged 418,000 gross oil-equivalent barrels per day, with Kearl production at 256,000 barrels per day, down from 277,000 barrels per day in Q1 2024 due to extreme cold weather[11] - Downstream throughput averaged 397,000 barrels per day, with refinery capacity utilization at 91%, down from 94% in Q1 2024 due to additional maintenance[22] - Gross crude oil production for Q1 2025 was 413,000 barrels per day, slightly down from 416,000 barrels per day in Q1 2024[46] Capital Expenditures and Projects - Capital and exploration expenditures totaled $398 million, a decrease from $496 million in Q1 2024[11] - Capital and exploration expenditures for Q1 2025 totaled CAD 398 million, down from CAD 496 million in Q1 2024, a decrease of 19.8%[44] - Construction of Canada's largest renewable diesel facility at the Strathcona refinery is on track for startup in mid-2025[4] - The Leming SAGD project is expected to start up in late 2025, with anticipated peak production of around 9,000 barrels per day[11] Asset and Debt Management - Total assets as of March 31, 2025, were CAD 43,889 million, an increase from CAD 42,513 million in the previous year[39] - Total debt decreased to CAD 4,006 million from CAD 4,127 million year-over-year, showing a reduction of 2.9%[39] Cost Management - Cash operating costs for Q1 2025 were CAD 1,947 million, compared to CAD 1,911 million in Q1 2024, reflecting a 1.9% increase[64] - Unit cash operating cost for the Upstream segment in Q1 2025 was CAD 31.31 per oil-equivalent barrel, up from CAD 31.04 in Q1 2024[66] - The Upstream segment's cash operating costs were CAD 1,178 million in Q1 2025, down from CAD 1,189 million in Q1 2024, showing a decrease of 0.9%[64] - The Downstream segment's cash operating costs increased to CAD 631 million in Q1 2025 from CAD 583 million in Q1 2024, a rise of 8.2%[64] Miscellaneous - Chemical net income for the quarter was $31 million, down from $57 million in Q1 2024[11] - There were no identified items impacting net income in Q1 2025 and Q1 2024, providing a clearer view of operational performance[60] - The company reported proceeds from asset sales of CAD 11 million in Q1 2025, up from CAD 4 million in Q1 2024[58] - The company plans to renew its normal course issuer bid in June 2025[6]

Core Viewpoint - Imperial Oil (IMO) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.48 per share, a decline of 10.3% year-over-year, while revenues are forecasted to increase by 21.9% to $11.11 billion [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 7.2% lower over the last 30 days, indicating a collective reevaluation by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, with empirical studies showing a strong relationship between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Key Metrics Projections - Analysts project 'Gross Oil-Equivalent Production' to reach 436.72 KBBL, up from 421 KBBL a year ago [5]. - 'Gross Natural Gas Production' is estimated at 29.86 Mcf, slightly down from 30 Mcf in the same quarter last year [5]. - 'Gross Total Crude Oil Production' is forecasted to be 427.13 KBBL, compared to 416 KBBL a year ago [5]. Daily Production Estimates - 'Gross Crude Oil and NGL Production per day - Conventional' is expected to be 4.77 KBBL, down from 5 KBBL in the same quarter last year [6]. - 'Net Crude Oil and NGL Production per day - Kearl' is projected at 180.17 KBBL, down from 183 KBBL a year ago [6]. - 'Net Crude Oil and NGL Production per day - Cold Lake' is estimated at 108.58 KBBL, consistent with last year's figure of 108 KBBL [7]. Additional Production Insights - 'Gross Crude Oil and NGL Production per day - Syncrude' is expected to reach 76.01 KBBL, up from 73 KBBL a year ago [8]. - 'Gross Crude Oil and NGL Production per day - Cold Lake' is projected at 154.07 KBBL, compared to 142 KBBL last year [8]. - 'Total Refinery throughput' is expected to be 417.56 KBBL, up from 407 KBBL in the same quarter last year [9]. Sales Projections - 'Net Petroleum Products Sales' is estimated at 469.33 KBBL, compared to 450 KBBL a year ago [10].

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Imperial Oil despite higher revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Imperial Oil is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.48 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 10.3%, while revenues are projected to be $11.11 billion, an increase of 21.9% from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 9.9% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that the Most Accurate Estimate aligns with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0%, making it challenging to predict an earnings beat [10][11]. - A positive Earnings ESP is a strong indicator of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3, which historically leads to a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time [8]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Imperial Oil exceeded the expected earnings of $1.42 per share by delivering $1.69, resulting in a surprise of +19.01% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates [13]. Market Reaction Considerations - An earnings beat or miss alone may not dictate stock movement, as other factors can influence investor sentiment [14]. - Although Imperial Oil does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, investors should consider additional factors before making investment decisions [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial performance and outlook of Imperial Oil, highlighting the expectation of continued strong cash flow from operations due to limited expansion options and debt repayment needs [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Imperial Oil is anticipated to generate significant cash flow from its operations, which is a positive indicator for the company's financial health [1]. - The company has limited options for expansion, suggesting that the cash generated may be primarily used for shareholder returns or debt repayment rather than growth initiatives [1]. Group 2: Investment Perspective - The author expresses a long position in Imperial Oil shares, indicating confidence in the company's future performance and potential for returns [2]. - The article reflects a personal opinion on the investment potential of Imperial Oil, emphasizing the importance of cash flow in evaluating the company's prospects [2].

Core Viewpoint - Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) is a significant player in Canada's energy sector, involved in the exploration, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas, and is a subsidiary of Exxon Mobil Corporation [1][2] Group 1: Strengths and Opportunities - Record-breaking production in Q4, averaging 460,000 barrels per day, contributed to a full-year production of 433,000 barrels per day, ensuring revenue stability [4] - Strong operational performance at Kearl, achieving an annual production of 281,000 barrels per day, supports long-term stability and allows capitalizing on favorable crude pricing [5] - Increased quarterly dividend by 20% to 72 Canadian cents per share, reflecting management's confidence in cash flow and long-term profitability, with C$16 billion returned to shareholders over the past three years [6] - Low natural decline rates in oil sands operations at Kearl and Cold Lake ensure long-term revenue stability and reduce capital expenditure needs [7] - Vertical integration across the oil value chain reduces reliance on external suppliers and protects against price shocks, making IMO a lower-risk investment [8] - Investment in advanced recovery techniques like solvent-assisted SAGD at Cold Lake could unlock additional reserves and improve cost structure [10] Group 2: Risks and Challenges - Declining net income in Q4 2024 to C$1.2 billion from C$1.4 billion the previous year raises concerns about growth, with full-year revenues also declining slightly [11] - Weakened refining margins due to increased market supply, with synthetic crude oil realizations falling C$6.27 per barrel, could impact downstream earnings [12] - Dependence on volatile oil prices linked to geopolitical risks and global economic conditions adds uncertainty to profitability [13] - Slower growth compared to U.S. shale producers, which can ramp up production quickly, makes IMO less attractive for growth-focused investors [14] - Current EV/EBITDA ratio of 5.81 is higher than the Canadian Oil and Gas sub-industry average of 3.65, indicating potential overvaluation concerns [15]

Core Viewpoint - Imperial Oil (IMO) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) due to an upward trend in earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Performance - The Zacks rating system tracks the Zacks Consensus Estimate, which reflects EPS estimates from sell-side analysts for the current and following years, indicating a company's earnings outlook [1][2]. - A strong correlation exists between changes in earnings estimates and near-term stock price movements, influenced by institutional investors who adjust their valuations based on these estimates [4][6]. Recent Developments for Imperial Oil - Analysts have raised their earnings estimates for Imperial Oil, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate increasing by 15.5% over the past three months [8]. - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, Imperial Oil is expected to earn $5.82 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of -11.7% [8]. Zacks Rating System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7]. - The upgrade of Imperial Oil to a Zacks Rank 2 places it in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, indicating a strong potential for near-term price increases due to favorable earnings estimate revisions [10].