JD has the ingredients to be a long-term winner, but it's not for everyone.It has been a horrendous few years for investors in JD.com (JD 2.21%). Thanks to a series of challenges, including the Chinese government's tech crackdown, geopolitical tension between the U.S. and China, and the increasingly challenging e-commerce industry, JD's stock price has declined by more than 70% from its peak of $99.91 in 2021.While most investors have generally shunned the stock, bargain hunters are sniffing for potential o ...

Core Viewpoint - Analyst recommendations play a significant role in influencing stock prices, but their reliability is questionable due to potential biases from brokerage firms [1][2]. Group 1: JD.com Brokerage Recommendations - JD.com has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.56, indicating a consensus between Strong Buy and Buy, based on 18 brokerage firms [1]. - Out of the 18 recommendations, 13 are Strong Buy, accounting for 72.2% of the total recommendations [1]. Group 2: Limitations of Brokerage Recommendations - Studies indicate that brokerage recommendations have limited success in guiding investors towards stocks with the highest price increase potential [2]. - Brokerage analysts often exhibit a strong positive bias due to vested interests, with five "Strong Buy" recommendations for every "Strong Sell" [2][4]. - The ABR may not reflect the actual price direction of a stock, suggesting that it should be used to validate independent research rather than as a sole decision-making tool [2]. Group 3: Zacks Rank vs. ABR - The Zacks Rank is a proprietary stock rating tool that classifies stocks from Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell) and is based on earnings estimate revisions [3][5]. - Unlike the ABR, which is based solely on brokerage recommendations, the Zacks Rank is a quantitative model that reflects timely changes in earnings estimates [4][5]. - The Zacks Rank for JD.com is currently 3 (Hold), indicating a cautious outlook despite the positive ABR [6]. Group 4: Earnings Estimates for JD.com - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JD.com remains unchanged at $3.33 for the current year, suggesting stability in analysts' views on the company's earnings prospects [6]. - The unchanged consensus estimate contributes to the Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) for JD.com, indicating potential alignment with broader market performance [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for the company with a target price of **$40/155 HKD**, based on a 13x forward P/E multiple for JD Retail in 2024 [2][4] Core Views - The company's **Q2 2024 revenue** is expected to grow **1% YoY to RMB 291.4 billion**, below the Bloomberg consensus of RMB 306 billion, with a downward revision of **5 percentage points** in growth expectations [1] - **Adjusted net profit** is projected to increase **15% YoY to RMB 9.8 billion**, **13% higher** than previous expectations, driven by improved gross margins due to changes in product mix, lower procurement costs, and reduced air conditioner subsidies [1] - The **adjusted net profit margin** is expected to improve by **40 basis points YoY to 3.4%** [1] - The company's **active buyers and purchase frequency** showed double-digit growth in Q2, partially offset by a decline in average order value due to changes in product mix and low-price strategies [2] - The company plans to continue investing in low-price strategies, with **full-year revenue growth expectations unchanged**, but may increase investments in the second half of the year to drive revenue growth while ensuring ROI [2] - The **2024 revenue forecast** has been revised downward by **2%**, primarily due to the impact of electronics categories, while the **adjusted net profit** is expected to grow **10% YoY** [2] Operational Data - The company's **user experience NPS** continued to improve in Q2, supported by ecosystem development and low-price strategies [2] - During the **618 shopping festival**, daily active buyers also showed double-digit growth [2] - The **electronics category** is expected to decline by **5% YoY** in Q2, mainly due to a high base effect from air conditioner sales last year, weak PC industry demand, and growth in communication equipment [28] - The **daily necessities category** is expected to grow **9% YoY**, driven by strong performance in supermarkets, partially offset by pressure in home and furniture categories [28] - The **Q2 GMV** is expected to grow at a **low single-digit rate**, with positive growth during the 618 period, slightly higher than retail revenue growth [28] Valuation and Financials - The company's **2024E revenue** is projected at **RMB 1.139 trillion**, with a **5% YoY growth**, while **adjusted net profit** is expected to reach **RMB 38.6 billion**, a **10.4% YoY increase** [15] - The **2024E EPS** is forecasted at **RMB 24.56**, with a **P/E ratio of 8.5x** [15] - The **gross margin** is expected to improve to **15.3% in 2024E**, up from **14.7% in 2023**, driven by better product mix and cost control [15] - The **adjusted EBITDA margin** is projected to increase to **4.4% in 2024E**, up from **3.9% in 2023** [15] Industry and Market Context - The company's **valuation** is considered to be at the bottom, with potential for healthy profit growth, continued shareholder returns, and benefits from new advertising products like **Quanzhan Tui** [2] - The **electronics category**, which accounts for **10% of the electronics segment** and **30% of the home appliance segment**, is expected to see a double-digit decline in air conditioner sales in Q2 [28] - The company expects **Q3 revenue growth** to recover compared to Q2, as it returns to a normal comparable base [28]

Company Performance - JD.com, Inc. closed at $28.15, reflecting a -1.68% change from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.55% [1] - Over the past month, JD.com shares decreased by 2.62%, while the Retail-Wholesale sector gained 1.33% and the S&P 500 increased by 4.28% [1] - Analysts expect JD.com to report earnings of $0.81 per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 9.46%, with projected revenue of $42.2 billion, a 6.27% increase from the same quarter last year [1] Fiscal Year Estimates - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are projected at $3.33 per share and revenue at $160.49 billion, representing increases of +6.73% and +5.49% respectively from the prior year [2] - Recent changes to analyst estimates for JD.com are crucial as they reflect the evolving business trends, with positive revisions indicating a favorable business outlook [2] Valuation and Industry Ranking - JD.com currently has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), with a Forward P/E ratio of 8.61, which is a discount compared to its industry's Forward P/E of 21.71 [3] - The Internet - Commerce industry, part of the Retail-Wholesale sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 54, placing it in the top 22% of over 250 industries [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for JD.com with an unchanged DCF-based target price of US$51.9, indicating a potential upside of 93.9% from the current price of US$26.76 [10][22]. Core Insights - JD.com is expected to report 2Q24 revenue of RMB290.9 billion, reflecting a 1.0% year-over-year increase, and a non-GAAP net income of RMB9.9 billion, which is 16% better than Bloomberg consensus estimates [2][12]. - The company is focusing on return on investment (ROI) and quality growth strategies, which may lead to better-than-expected earnings despite challenges in the electronic and home appliance sectors [2][12]. - JD Retail's revenue is projected to be RMB254.2 billion in 2Q24, up 0.3% year-over-year, with a non-GAAP operating profit of RMB9.2 billion, representing a 12% increase year-over-year [2][12]. Revenue and Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised down by 0.6-0.9% due to a lower expectation for electronic and home appliance revenue, while the non-GAAP net income forecast has been lifted by 4-5% due to more efficient spending [2][12]. - JD's projected revenue for 2024 is RMB1,150.6 billion, with a gross profit of RMB173.6 billion and a non-GAAP net profit of RMB38.5 billion [4][19]. - The non-GAAP net margin is expected to improve to 3.6% in 2024, up from 3.2% in 2023 [4][21]. Valuation Metrics - JD's current valuation is at 8/7x 2024/2025E non-GAAP PE, which is considered not demanding compared to an 11% non-GAAP earnings CAGR over 2023-2026 [2][12]. - The target price of US$51.9 translates into a 15x 2024E PE (non-GAAP) [12][22]. Key Catalysts - Potential catalysts for JD's valuation include further enhancement of shareholder returns and a recovery in consumer spending, which could improve revenue and earnings growth outlook [2][12].

CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 尽管空调类别的高基数和 PC 类别的全行业软表现可能会拖累京东在 2Q24E 的电子和家用电 器 （ E ＆ HA ） 收入增长，但其专注于 ROI 和质量增长的策略可能会推动收益。我们预测京 东第二季度收入为 299 亿元人民币 （ 同比增长 1.0% ），非 GAAP 净收入为 99 亿元人民币 ，转换为非 GAAP 净利润率为 3.4%，比彭博社预期高出 16% 。随着 E & HA 和平台业务的 收入增长正常化，我们预计京东在 3Q24E 的收入同比增长将重新加速，京东零售 （ JDR ） 的 GMV 增长仍可能超过 2024E 的零售总额。在激烈的行业竞争中，稳健的盈利能力和股东 回报的提升可以为京东的估值提供支撑，而进一步的重评级可能取决于消费复苏，京东有能力 向市场证明其核心品类可以在中长期保持稳定的市场份额。维持买入，基于 DCF 的 TP 为 51.9 美元。 京东零售 ： 仍然致力于推动用户增长。我们估计京东零售 （ JDR ） 在第 2 季度的收入 为 2542 亿元人民币，同比增长 0.3 ％，比彭博社的预期低 5.8 ％，这是由于 E ...

MF3dJD.com (NASDAQ:JD) (OTCPK:JDCMF) is China’s biggest e-Commerce company by revenue. Although Alibaba (BABA) does far more profit, JD holds inventory directly, resulting in slimmer margins. Still, JD’s massive revenue numbers make it one of China’s true eCommerce giants. It is relatively unique among Chinese eCommerce companies in having a strong focus on quality. Both AliExpress and TEMU have been criticized for a lack of quality in some products; JD is considered to have the best average product qua ...

Company Overview - JD com has faced challenges due to geopolitical tensions US China relations Chinese government crackdown on tech sector and COVID 19 economic impact [1] - The company operates an integrated retail model similar to Amazon focusing on low priced products and fast delivery controlling the entire customer experience from sales to logistics [2] - JD com has expanded into new areas such as logistics healthcare and fintech diversifying its business amid intensifying competition in e commerce [3] Financial Performance - Adjusted net profit margin increased from 0 7 in 2018 to 3 2 in 2023 with revenue growing at a compound annual rate of 19 over the same period [3] - Revenue growth rate fell to a multiyear low of 3 7 in 2023 due to competition and weak economic environment but rebounded to 7 in Q1 2024 [5] Valuation - JD com stock is down approximately 75 from its peak with a P S ratio of 0 27 and P E ratio of 11 7 significantly lower than its five year averages of 0 99 and 83 0 respectively [4] - The stock trades at a discount compared to Amazon which has P S and P E ratios of 3 5 and 54 5 respectively [4] Strategic Initiatives - Under CEO Sandy Ran Xu JD com is improving user engagement through lower prices new services and enhanced livestream shopping experiences [5] - The company benefits from a virtuous cycle of lower costs lower sales prices and higher volumes driving customer retention and platform growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - JD.com, Inc. is experiencing a decline in stock performance, with a significant loss over the past month, while upcoming earnings are anticipated to show growth in EPS and revenue [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - JD.com, Inc. closed at $25.84, reflecting a -1.6% change from the previous day, underperforming compared to the S&P 500's loss of 0.41% [1]. - Over the past month, JD.com shares have decreased by 13.08%, contrasting with the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 2.65% and the S&P 500's gain of 3.53% [1]. Group 2: Earnings Estimates - The upcoming earnings disclosure is expected to report an EPS of $0.81, which is a 9.46% increase year-over-year [1]. - The consensus estimate for quarterly revenue is projected at $42.2 billion, representing a 6.27% increase from the same period last year [1]. Group 3: Full-Year Estimates - For the full year, Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $3.33 per share and revenue of $160.49 billion, indicating year-over-year changes of +6.73% and +5.49%, respectively [2]. Group 4: Analyst Sentiment - Recent changes in analyst estimates for JD.com reflect optimism regarding the company's business and profitability, with positive revisions correlating with potential stock price performance [2]. - JD.com currently holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), indicating strong analyst support [3]. Group 5: Valuation Metrics - JD.com has a Forward P/E ratio of 7.9, which is significantly lower than the industry average Forward P/E of 21.05, suggesting a valuation discount [3]. - The Internet - Commerce industry, to which JD.com belongs, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 75, placing it in the top 30% of over 250 industries [3].

Core Viewpoint - JD.com is positioned as a strong investment opportunity despite recent challenges, with signs of growth emerging in the Chinese economy and the company's unique competitive advantages [1][4][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - JD.com operates differently from its main competitors, Alibaba's Tmall and Taobao, by primarily acting as a seller rather than a platform for third-party vendors, which allows for greater control over the customer experience [3]. - The company boasts a robust logistics network with over 1,600 owned warehouses and more than 2,000 third-party-operated warehouses, enhancing its cost efficiency and service quality [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - China's retail spending showed a year-over-year increase of 3.7%, surpassing expectations, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [5]. - S&P Global Market Intelligence projects China's GDP growth at 4.8% for the year, an increase from the previous estimate of 4.6%, driven by exports [5]. Group 3: Growth Strategy - JD.com has achieved a 7% growth in revenue last quarter by positioning itself as a low-price leader, particularly gaining traction in lower-tier cities [6]. - The management team is confident that JD's growth will outpace China's total retail sales of consumer goods in 2024, leveraging its scale and competitive pricing [6]. Group 4: Competitive Edge - JD.com has a cost-competitive advantage over rivals like Tmall and PDD, which are currently unable to match its pricing strategy without compromising service quality [7]. - Alibaba's recent decision to retain its logistics business suggests a recognition of the need to enhance competitiveness against JD.com [7]. Group 5: Valuation and Analyst Sentiment - JD.com's shares are currently priced at less than nine times projected earnings of $3.29 per share, indicating potential for significant upside [8]. - Among analysts covering JD.com, 33 out of 46 rate it as a strong buy, with a consensus price target of around $40 per share, approximately 40% above the current stock price [9].