Core Insights - Investing in stocks based on valuation metrics, particularly the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, can identify opportunities with strong upside potential, especially for companies that are unprofitable or in early growth phases [1][2] Group 1: Price-to-Sales Ratio - The P/S ratio provides a clearer picture of value when earnings are minimal or volatile, as it compares a company's market capitalization to its revenues [2][5] - A stock with a P/S ratio below 1 is considered a good bargain, indicating that investors pay less than a dollar for each dollar of revenue generated [6] - The P/S ratio is preferred over the price-to-earnings ratio because sales are harder to manipulate, making it a more reliable metric [7] Group 2: Screening Parameters - Stocks with a P/S ratio less than the median for their industry are highlighted as better investment opportunities [9][10] - The screening process pairs low P/S ratios with solid balance sheets to avoid valuation traps associated with excessive debt [10] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Hamilton Insurance Group (HG) is benefiting from strong execution and a clear growth roadmap, with gross premiums written rising significantly, reflecting momentum in various insurance lines [12][13] - Macy's Inc. (M) is undergoing a transformation under its Bold New Chapter program, focusing on digital initiatives and omnichannel retailing, which has led to consistent outperformance [14][15] - GIII Apparel Group (GIII) is driving growth through product differentiation and strengthening direct-to-consumer channels, with owned brands generating higher margins [16][17] - Green Dot (GDOT) is well-positioned for growth with a strong balance sheet and significant cash reserves, expanding its addressable market through Banking-as-a-Service programs [18][20] - Gibraltar Industries (ROCK) is benefiting from operational improvements and a focus on its Three-Pillar Strategy, with high demand in its Residential segment and agricultural facilities [21][22]

Core Insights - Macy's Inc. has strengthened its luxury-led growth profile in Q3 of fiscal 2025, with Bloomingdale's showing significant performance under the Bold New Chapter strategy, achieving an 8.6% comparable sales increase, marking its fifth consecutive quarter of growth and the strongest performance in 13 quarters [1][9] Bloomingdale's Performance - Bloomingdale's growth was driven by strong demand in key categories such as ready-to-wear apparel, fine jewelry, shoes, and tabletop items, with the addition of high-profile designer brands enhancing its assortment and reputation [2] - Improved execution and elevated service levels contributed to a sequential increase in Net Promoter Scores, indicating stronger customer engagement [2] Earnings Stabilization - Bloomingdale's serves as a critical earnings stabilizer for Macy's, particularly as the core Macy's brand undergoes a longer-term turnaround, with its higher average unit retail and resilient affluent customer base helping to offset softness in mass categories [3][9] Bluemercury's Contribution - Bluemercury also posted positive comparable sales growth, driven by dermatological skincare and expanded brand partnerships, highlighting the importance of premium and luxury offerings in Macy's multi-brand strategy [4] Future Growth Plans - Macy's plans to build on Bloomingdale's momentum through targeted market expansion, continued digital investment, and selective rollout of small-format Bloomie's and outlet locations, aiming to leverage Bloomingdale's as a long-term growth engine [5] Valuation and Estimates - Macy's shares have surged 82.7% in the past six months, outperforming the industry's 62.1% growth [8] - The company is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 0.29X, below the industry average of 0.52X [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Macy's fiscal 2025 earnings indicates an 18.2% year-over-year decline, while fiscal 2026 estimates suggest a 2.9% uptick, with recent upward revisions in earnings estimates for both fiscal years [12]

Federal Services - Non-essential federal offices, including Social Security Administration field offices and passport agencies, will be closed on New Year's Day [2] - IRS services will also be unavailable, requiring individuals to wait until the following day for assistance [2] Financial Markets - Major U.S. exchanges, including the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, will be closed for trading on New Year's Day, with operations resuming on January 2 [3][6] Mail and Delivery Services - The U.S. Postal Service will not operate on New Year's Day, with only Priority Mail Express deliveries being made [4] - FedEx and UPS will also pause operations, with limited services available for urgent shipments [5] Banking Sector - Most major banks, including Bank of America and Wells Fargo, will be closed for the holiday, although mobile banking and ATMs will remain accessible [7] Retail and Grocery - Major retailers like Walmart and Target will operate on New Year's Day, while grocery stores show a mixed picture with some chains open and others closed [8][9] - Discount grocers such as Aldi and Trader Joe's will remain closed, while convenience stores and pharmacies like CVS and Walgreens will generally stay open [10] Restaurants - Fast-food chains, including McDonald's and Starbucks, will have many locations open, although hours may vary by franchisee [12]

Core Viewpoint - Macy's shares have surged nearly 33% year to date, outperforming the S&P 500 index, which is up around 15% [2]. However, Macy's continues to trade at a significant discount compared to its peers, presenting potential investment opportunities [2][8]. Valuation Comparison - Currently, Macy's trades at approximately 12.5 times forward earnings, while Kohl's trades over 20 times and Dillard's nearly 34 times forward earnings [5]. Even when adjusting for expected earnings rebounds, Macy's remains undervalued, trading at just 10.1 times its estimated 2027 earnings of $2.21 per share [6]. Earnings Guidance - Macy's revenue guidance for Q4 FY2026 is between $7.35 billion and $7.5 billion, slightly above analyst expectations of $7.3 billion [9]. However, EPS guidance of $1.35 to $1.55 falls short of the forecasted $1.58 [9]. Potential for Growth - If Macy's holiday season results exceed expectations, the stock could see an unexpected boost early in the new year, indicating potential for significant valuation expansion over the longer term [8].

Group 1: Macy's - Macy's operates as an omnichannel retail organization with stores, websites, and mobile applications [1] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) and a 9.6% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current year earnings over the last 60 days [1] - Macy's has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 10.39, significantly lower than the industry average of 22.30, and possesses a Value Score of A [2] Group 2: Science Applications International (SAIC) - SAIC is a leading information technology and professional services provider primarily serving the U.S. government [1] - The company also carries a Zacks Rank of 1 and has seen a 2.3% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current year earnings over the last 60 days [1] - SAIC has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 10.50, compared to the industry average of 15.30, and holds a Value Score of A [3]

Core Viewpoint - Macy's Inc. is experiencing significant challenges ahead of the holiday season, with a notable decline in stock performance and a weak outlook for consumer spending [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the third quarter, Macy's net income fell by 60.7% to $11 million from $28 million year-over-year [4]. - Net sales remained flat at $4.7 billion, while total revenues also held steady at $4.9 billion, exceeding previous guidance of $4.5 billion to $4.6 billion [4][5]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Strategy - The company anticipates selective spending among consumers during the holiday period due to ongoing cost pressures from higher tariffs [2]. - Macy's plans to implement a $9.99 shipping fee for returns, unless customers are loyalty members, in an effort to minimize returns [3]. Group 3: Store Closures and Future Plans - Macy's has announced plans to close 150 underperforming stores by the end of 2026, with 50 closures expected this year [5].

Group 1: Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (VIST) - Vista Energy is an oil and gas exploration and production company with a Zacks Rank 1 [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 48.7% over the last 60 days [1] - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 6.64, compared to 6.90 for the industry, and possesses a Value Score of A [1] Group 2: OppFi Inc. (OPFI) - OppFi is a FinTech company that also carries a Zacks Rank 1 [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its next year earnings has increased by 10.6% over the last 60 days [2] - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 6.84, compared to 12.10 for the industry, and possesses a Value Score of A [2] Group 3: Macy's, Inc. (M) - Macy's is an omnichannel retail company with a Zacks Rank 1 [2][3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 10.2% over the last 60 days [2] - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 11.02, compared to 22.90 for the industry, and possesses a Value Score of A [3]

Consumer Sentiment and Spending Trends - U.S. consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level in over three years in early November, but there was a slight uptick in December [3] - Despite economic worries, nearly 203 million U.S. shoppers participated in the holiday shopping period from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, marking the highest turnout in at least nine years [5] - Retail sales have shown resilience, with many retailers exceeding quarterly sales expectations, indicating steady consumer demand [6][7] Retail Performance and Consumer Behavior - Big-box retailers like Walmart and Costco reported strong sales, while discretionary retailers also exceeded expectations, suggesting a consistent consumer spending pattern [6][7] - Lower-income consumers have remained resilient, continuing to spend despite economic pressures, while higher-income consumers have supported retail sales through rising home values and stock market gains [8][9] - Retailers have noted that consumers are selective in their spending, often seeking deals and discounts, which has driven strong turnout during promotional sales [13][14] Economic Indicators and Retail Forecasts - Retail sales have consistently grown nearly or more than 4% year-over-year, surpassing earlier predictions of 2.7% to 3.7% growth [19] - Holiday hiring by retailers is expected to be the lowest in at least 15 years, reflecting caution in managing costs amid economic uncertainty [20] - Retailers are experiencing a divide between winners and losers, with those executing well capturing the dollars of selective shoppers [24] Price Dynamics and Consumer Spending - Some retail spending growth has been attributed to price hikes, as consumers are motivated to purchase before further price increases occur [14][15] - The disconnect between consumer sentiment and actual spending behavior has been noted, with higher-income households continuing to spend despite low sentiment [16][17] - Retailers have been able to offer deals due to excess inventory purchased earlier in the year, which may lead to a strong start to the holiday season but a weaker end [30] Conclusion on Consumer Outlook - The current economic environment has led consumers to make trade-offs, seeking value while still engaging in holiday spending [27][28] - The overall sentiment suggests a paradox where consumers feel uncertain yet continue to spend, driven by the emotional significance of the holiday season [29][31]

Core Insights - The holiday season presents an opportunity for American retailers, particularly Macy's, to transform and connect with local communities [2][3] - Macy's is undergoing a corporate transformation under CEO Tony Spring, focusing on revitalizing the brand amidst declining sales and cultural relevance [3][4] Company Strategy - Tony Spring plans to close a third of Macy's U.S. locations, freeing up $750 million to reinvest in high-performing stores [4] - The strategy emphasizes becoming a neighborhood store that offers convenience and special products for customers [2][3] Market Trends - Department stores have seen a significant decline, accounting for less than 1% of total U.S. retail sales, down from about 16% in the early 1990s [5] - The shift in consumer behavior has led to a need for department stores to adapt to the changing preferences of shoppers who prioritize convenience and value [8][12] Consumer Insights - Today's consumers have diverse shopping preferences, including online and in-store options, and they seek excitement in their shopping experiences [10][18] - The divide between economic classes is widening, impacting middle-income households and their spending habits [12] Competitive Landscape - Macy's aims to capture the shrinking middle market by focusing on quality merchandise rather than relying solely on deep discounts [13] - The retail environment is under pressure, but there remains a viable market if stores can meet customer needs effectively [13] Branding and Experience - The importance of creating a special shopping experience is emphasized, as consumers desire to feel valued and excited about their purchases [20][21] - Macy's is looking to replicate the successful strategies used at Bloomingdale's, focusing on curation and ambiance to attract customers [25][26] Future Outlook - The challenge remains for Macy's to redefine its customer base and adapt to the realities of a shrinking middle class while maintaining a balance between value and quality [27][28] - The company has the potential to showcase its best offerings and move from merely surviving to thriving in the competitive retail landscape [29]

-The holiday season, that time of year when the city that never sleeps takes a moment to reflect. Lights twinkle up and down the avenues of New York City, from the posh storefronts down in Soho to the ornate window displays up along Fifth Avenue to the epicenter in between the miracle and magic of Macy's on 34th Street. -Christmas isn't just a day, it's a frame of mind.-American retailers seize on the season, hoping to capitalize on that frame of mind, creating something that lasts beyond just the holidays. ...