Core Viewpoint - Mattel, Inc. is expected to report a decline in revenues and earnings for the first quarter of 2025, primarily due to underperformance in the Barbie brand and adverse macroeconomic conditions [1][3][5]. Financial Performance - In the last quarter, Mattel's earnings exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 52.2%, while revenues fell short by 0.5%. Year-over-year, earnings and revenues increased by 20.7% and 2%, respectively [1]. - For the upcoming quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a loss of 11 cents per share, representing a 120% decline year-over-year. Revenue is projected at $799.7 million, down 1.2% from $809.5 million a year ago [2]. Brand Performance - The decline in revenues is attributed to weak performance from the Barbie brand in both North America and international markets, despite improvements in the Hot Wheels and Fisher-Price brands [3]. - Worldwide gross billings for the top three Power Brands are estimated at $165 million for Barbie (down 7.3%), $95 million for Fisher-Price (up 2.2%), and $263 million for Hot Wheels (up 1.9%) [4]. Cost and Expenses - The company's bottom line is expected to be negatively impacted by increased selling and administrative expenses, particularly due to higher employee compensation and elevated advertising costs [4]. Market Conditions - Ongoing macroeconomic challenges, including suppressed discretionary spending and inflationary pressures, are likely to hinder the company's performance despite its focus on cost control and diversified entertainment offerings [5]. Earnings Prediction Model - The Zacks model suggests that Mattel is unlikely to achieve an earnings beat this quarter, with an Earnings ESP of -4.76% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [6].

Group 1 - Toy giants Mattel and Hasbro have experienced significant stock declines due to President Trump's intensified trade war with China, with Mattel shares hitting a 52-week intraday low of $13.95, down 27% since the announcement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy [1] - Hasbro's shares also fell to a 52-week low of $49, representing a decline of more than 20% in the same timeframe [1] - The toy industry is heavily dependent on supply chains in China, making companies vulnerable to changes in trade policy [2] Group 2 - Bank of America estimates that both Mattel and Hasbro source approximately 40% of their U.S. products from China [2]

Mattel (MAT) shares soared 8% in the last trading session to close at $15.86. The move was backed by solid volume with far more shares changing hands than in a normal session. This compares to the stock's 28.9% loss over the past four weeks.Following President Trump's announcement to suspend U.S. tariffs on most countries for 90 days, Mattel shares soared, reflecting renewed investor optimism.This toy maker is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.09 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year ...

Core Insights - Zacks Premium provides various tools for investors to enhance their stock market engagement and confidence [1] - The Zacks Style Scores offer a unique rating system for stocks based on value, growth, and momentum characteristics [3][4][5][6][7] - The Zacks Rank model, which focuses on earnings estimate revisions, has shown significant success, with 1 (Strong Buy) stocks yielding an average annual return of +25.41% since 1988 [9] Group 1: Zacks Premium Features - Zacks Premium includes daily updates on Zacks Rank and Industry Rank, access to the Zacks 1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens [1] - The service aims to help investors become more informed and confident in their investment decisions [1] Group 2: Zacks Style Scores - The Style Scores categorize stocks into four types: Value Score, Growth Score, Momentum Score, and VGM Score, each focusing on different investment strategies [4][5][6][7] - Value Score emphasizes finding undervalued stocks using financial ratios [4] - Growth Score focuses on a company's financial health and future growth potential [5] - Momentum Score identifies stocks with favorable price trends and earnings outlooks [6] - VGM Score combines all three styles to highlight stocks with the best overall characteristics [7] Group 3: Zacks Rank and Performance - The Zacks Rank utilizes earnings estimate revisions to guide investors in stock selection [8] - Stocks rated 1 (Strong Buy) have significantly outperformed the S&P 500, with over 800 top-rated stocks available for selection [9][10] - For optimal returns, investors should prioritize stocks with a Zacks Rank of 1 or 2 and Style Scores of A or B [11] Group 4: Company Spotlight - Mattel Inc. - Mattel Inc. is the world's largest toy manufacturer, with a diverse range of brands sold globally [13] - The company holds a 1 (Strong Buy) rating on the Zacks Rank and has a VGM Score of A, indicating strong growth potential [14] - Mattel is projected to achieve year-over-year earnings growth of 4.9% for the current fiscal year, with upward revisions in earnings estimates from analysts [14][15]

Core Insights - Mattel, Inc. has renewed a multi-year global licensing agreement with Disney to launch new products in celebration of Toy Story's 30th anniversary and the upcoming release of Toy Story 5 on June 19, 2026 [1][3] Product Offerings - The renewed agreement extends Mattel's global licensing rights to develop various toy lines for Toy Story, including action figures, vehicles, radio control, games, and plush toys [3] - In 2026, Mattel plans to increase its Action Figures offerings, introduce a new Toy Story Plush range, and launch Radio Control products, along with a Toy Story 5-themed edition of its UNO card game [4] - The Little People line will feature classic Toy Story characters and scenes, along with a new Imaginext lineup [5] Business Strategy - Mattel focuses on licensing partnerships, increasing e-commerce penetration, and an IP-driven strategy to deliver diversified offerings in toys and entertainment [6] - The company plans to release additional Netflix shows in 2025, including new seasons of popular franchises and products tied to major theatrical releases [7] Market Performance - Mattel's shares have gained 14.8% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Toys - Games - Hobbies industry's growth of 11.3% [9] - The company anticipates market share gains due to a robust pipeline of new launches, increased demand for notable brands, and an effective cost-saving program [9]

Core Insights - The company is transitioning from a traditional toy manufacturer to an intellectual property (IP) company, focusing on licensing its popular brands like Barbie, Hot Wheels, and Uno [1] - The success of the 2023 Barbie movie has led to a surge in Barbie-inspired products from over 15 other companies, contributing to a mini pink revolution [2] - The company is reducing its manufacturing footprint by closing or consolidating five factories, aiming to decrease reliance on China, which currently accounts for about 40% of its production [4][6] Manufacturing Strategy - The company has closed or consolidated five factories, with plans to further reduce reliance on China due to a 20% tariff threat on goods made there [4][6] - The CFO stated that no single country should account for more than 25% of production, although no specific timeline was provided for these goals [7] - The company currently manufactures in seven countries, including Mexico, which faces a potential 25% tariff after April 2 [4] Licensing and Media Ventures - The CEO is betting on licensing deals linked to movies about the company's major brands, with two films currently in production: "Masters of the Universe" in London and "Matchbox" in Morocco [7] - The company has 14 other movies and TV products in development, indicating a strong focus on media as a revenue stream [7] - Last year, sales of Hot Wheels products surpassed those of Barbie-related merchandise, highlighting the brand's strength [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Mattel's recent earnings report shows a mixed performance with earnings exceeding estimates while revenues fell short, indicating potential challenges ahead as the company prepares for future growth initiatives [2][4]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Mattel reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 35 cents, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 23 cents by 52.2%, and up from 29 cents in the prior year [4]. - Net sales for Q4 amounted to $1.64 billion, slightly missing the consensus estimate of $1.66 billion by 0.5%, but reflecting a 2% increase year-over-year [4]. - For the full year 2024, net sales totaled $5.38 billion, a decrease from $5.44 billion in 2023, while net income rose significantly to $541.8 million from $214.4 million in 2023 [15]. Segment Performance - North America segment net sales increased by 1% year-over-year, while the International segment saw a 3% increase [5]. - Gross billings for Vehicles rose by 14% year-over-year, driven primarily by Hot Wheels, while Dolls experienced a decline of 4% due to decreased sales of Barbie [10][8]. Cost Management and Shareholder Value - In 2024, Mattel repurchased $400 million worth of shares and is on track to achieve a $200 million cost-savings target by 2026 [3]. - The company plans a $600 million share repurchase program for 2025, emphasizing its commitment to long-term shareholder value creation [3]. Operational Efficiency - Adjusted gross margin for Q4 was 50.8%, an increase of 200 basis points year-over-year, attributed to supply-chain efficiencies and favorable foreign exchange [12]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $248.9 million, up from $234 million in the previous year [12]. Future Outlook - For 2025, Mattel anticipates net sales growth of 2-3% year-over-year and adjusted EPS between $1.66 and $1.72, compared to $1.62 in 2024 [16]. - The company maintains a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating expectations for above-average returns in the coming months [19].

Sales and Customers - In 2024, Mattel's three largest customers accounted for approximately 44% of worldwide consolidated net sales, with Walmart at $1.17 billion, Target at $0.68 billion, and Amazon at $0.51 billion[35]. - Mattel's North America segment includes products sold directly to retailers and accounted for a significant portion of sales, with no individual country in the International segment exceeding 7% of worldwide consolidated net sales during 2024[29]. Financial Performance - Advertising and promotion expenses for 2024 were $507.3 million, representing 9.4% of net sales, a slight decrease from 9.6% in 2023 and 9.8% in 2022[45]. - Royalty expenses for 2024 were $244.1 million, compared to $249.8 million in 2023 and $230.8 million in 2022[38]. - Currency exchange rate fluctuations may impact Mattel's results, and the company employs hedging strategies to mitigate foreign currency transaction exposure[46]. Product Development and Strategy - The company plans to continue expanding its product offerings in 2025, including new releases for popular franchises like Barbie, Hot Wheels, and American Girl[20][24][22]. - Fisher-Price aims to enhance consumer engagement with new product offerings and global expansion of its Wood line in 2025[23]. - The company faces increasing competition in the toy industry, influenced by trends such as shorter product life cycles and the rise of digital games[31]. Operations and Manufacturing - Mattel's manufacturing facilities are primarily located in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, and Thailand, with plans to discontinue production at certain plants in China[42]. - Mattel's business is highly seasonal, with significant sales occurring during the holiday season, leading to increased production and inventory levels in the first three quarters[32][33]. - As of December 31, 2024, Mattel had approximately 34,000 employees, with 86% (about 29,600) located outside the United States[52]. - Mattel's global manufacturing labor workforce consists of approximately 25,100 employees[52]. Employee Engagement and Compliance - Mattel was recognized as one of Forbes 2024 World's Best Employers and named to Fast Company's Most Innovative Companies of 2024[54]. - The company emphasizes employee engagement and development, offering various online and instructor-led training programs[56]. - The company offers several benefits to promote employee well-being, including health insurance options and retirement plans[58]. - Mattel believes it is in substantial compliance with various federal, state, local, and international laws and regulations applicable to its business[51]. - The company maintains a quality control program to ensure compliance with product safety requirements, although recalls could adversely affect its business[49]. - Mattel's operations are subject to environmental laws and regulations, and it is not aware of any material cleanup liabilities[50]. - The company regularly collects feedback through an annual global engagement survey to improve employee experience and workplace culture[55]. Advertising and Regulatory Compliance - Mattel's advertising and promotion activities are subject to multiple regulations, including the Federal Trade Commission Act[49].

Core Points - Mattel will receive the Helen Keller Achievement Award for its commitment to inclusion, particularly through the launch of the Blind Barbie doll in 2024 [1][4] - The Barbie Fashionista line, introduced in 2009, promotes diversity by offering dolls with various skin tones, body types, and disabilities, empowering children globally [2][3] - AFB collaborated with Mattel to ensure that the Blind Barbie doll's packaging and marketing were accessible to blind and low-vision consumers, including audio descriptions for related content [3] Company Overview - Mattel is a leading global toy company with a strong portfolio of children's and family entertainment franchises, including iconic brands like Barbie, Hot Wheels, and Fisher-Price [7][8] - The company operates in 35 locations and its products are available in over 150 countries, collaborating with major retail and e-commerce companies [7] - Founded in 1945, Mattel aims to empower children through innovative products and experiences that inspire and entertain [8]

Company Performance - Mattel's shares have increased by 22.4% over the past month, reaching a new 52-week high of $22.07 [1] - Year-to-date, Mattel's stock has gained 23.8%, outperforming the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector's 8.7% and the Zacks Toys - Games - Hobbies industry's 14% [1] Earnings and Revenue - Mattel has consistently exceeded earnings expectations, reporting an EPS of $0.35 against a consensus estimate of $0.23 in its last earnings report [2] - For the current fiscal year, Mattel is projected to achieve earnings of $1.70 per share on revenues of $5.46 billion, reflecting a 4.94% increase in EPS and a 1.42% increase in revenues [3] - The next fiscal year forecasts earnings of $1.80 per share on revenues of $5.59 billion, indicating a year-over-year change of 6.08% in EPS and 2.5% in revenues [3] Valuation Metrics - Mattel's current trading valuation is at 12.9X current fiscal year EPS estimates, slightly below the peer industry average of 13.5X [7] - On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock trades at 11.6X compared to the peer group's average of 7.3X, with a PEG ratio of 2.37 [7] Zacks Rank and Style Scores - Mattel holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) due to rising earnings estimates, which suggests potential for the stock in the near future [8] - The company has a Value Score of B, a Growth Score of C, and a Momentum Score of B, resulting in a combined VGM Score of B [6] Industry Comparison - The Toys - Games - Hobbies industry is performing well, ranking in the top 5% of all industries, providing favorable conditions for both Mattel and its peer JAKKS Pacific, Inc. [11] - JAKKS Pacific, Inc. has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) and has shown strong earnings performance, beating consensus estimates by 34.93% [10]