Core Viewpoint - The recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's has historical implications for equity markets, suggesting potential volatility and directional moves in major indices like the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite [5][16]. Group 1: Credit Rating Downgrade - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA1, marking the last major agency to do so, following similar actions by S&P and Fitch [6][7]. - The downgrade highlights ongoing economic challenges, including persistent federal deficits, rising interest rates, and demographic shifts affecting labor force participation [8][9][11][12]. Group 2: Historical Context and Market Reactions - Historical data indicates that the S&P 500 experienced a 2.6% decline one month after the 2011 downgrade and a 1.2% dip after Fitch's downgrade in 2023, attributed to increased market volatility [17]. - Conversely, the S&P 500 saw significant gains of 18.8% and 20.8% one year after the respective downgrades, suggesting a potential recovery trajectory despite initial declines [18][20]. Group 3: Economic Resilience - Despite concerns over national debt and economic headwinds, historical trends show that U.S. recessions are typically short-lived, averaging around 10 months, while periods of economic expansion last approximately five years [21]. - The average bear market for the S&P 500 has lasted about 286 days, while bull markets have persisted for around 1,011 days, indicating a favorable long-term outlook for investors betting on U.S. economic growth [22].

Group 1 - The company aims to invest in firms with strong qualitative attributes, purchasing them at attractive prices based on fundamentals, and holding them indefinitely [1] - The investment strategy focuses on managing a concentrated portfolio to avoid underperformers while maximizing exposure to high-potential winners [1] - The company plans to publish articles on selected companies approximately three times a week, including extensive quarterly follow-ups and constant updates [1] Group 2 - The analyst has a beneficial long position in the shares of SPGI, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [2] - The article reflects the analyst's personal opinions and is not influenced by any compensation from external sources [2]

In a Friday night surprise, Moody's (MCO -2.92%) downgraded the credit rating of the United States government one notch from "Aaa," its highest rating, to "Aa1." Moody's has 21 grades in its ratings scale. Moody's is the last of the three major credit rating agencies to downgrade U.S. credit.S&P Global (SPGI -2.43%) downgraded the U.S. back in 2011, followed by Fitch in 2023. While the timing of the downgrade may have surprised some, Moody's had previously warned about a downgrade earlier this year, citing ...

Brera Holdings' Executive Chairman Dan McClory (left) and Eagle Football Holdings' John Textor (right) at the Financial Times Business of Football Summit in 2024 Dublin, Ireland and Milan, Italy, May 15, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Brera Holdings PLC ("Brera Holdings," "Brera" or the "Company") (Nasdaq: BREA), an Ireland-based international holding company focused on expanding its global portfolio of men's and women's sports clubs through a multi-club ownership ("MCO") strategy, commented on Friday's press tha ...

Moody’s (MCO) 2025 Conference May 07, 2025 06:30 AM ET Speaker0 Cover business and information services with Barclays. We're very pleased to have with us Moody's again this year, but Noemi Highland, who's the CFO. This is her first time, so thank you for being here. Appreciate it. And and maybe we'll just start there, Naomi, if that's okay. You know, you've been here about a year, I think, now at Moody's. Speaker1 That's Speaker0 right. So maybe just for for some background for some of the newer people in t ...

Group 1 - The article references the influence of Benjamin Graham's works, "The Intelligent Investor" and "Security Analysis," on investment strategies, particularly highlighting their recommendation by Warren Buffett [1] - The author expresses a personal long position in SPGI shares, indicating a positive outlook on the company's stock performance [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide specific financial data or performance metrics related to the company or industry [2]

Core Insights - Moody's reported an 8% year-over-year increase in quarterly revenue and a 14% rise in adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to $3.83, exceeding Wall Street estimates [1] - However, the company revised its full-year profit guidance downward, contributing to a 19% decline in its stock from the 52-week high amid economic uncertainties [2] Financial Performance - The company has a strong financial analytics technology platform, benefiting from a trend where corporations and institutions outsource parts of their investing workflow [3] - Moody's experienced robust demand for cloud-based subscriptions and data licensing, starting fiscal 2025 with strong performance [4] - The Moody's Investor Service segment saw an 8% year-over-year revenue increase due to momentum in global bond issuances and favorable market conditions [6] - Moody's Analytics group reported a 9% increase in annualized recurring revenue (ARR) and a 93% retention rate, indicating durable growth [7] - The adjusted operating margin reached 51.7%, up 100 basis points year-over-year, and the company increased its dividend by 11% to $0.94 per share, yielding 0.9% [8] Outlook and Guidance - Moody's faces challenges from a rapidly evolving operating environment, particularly due to recent changes in U.S. trade policy that may disrupt the economy [9] - A slowdown in global debt issuances could impact the credit ratings business and limit growth opportunities, leading to a tempered full-year growth and earnings outlook [10] - The revenue growth estimate for 2025 was revised from high single digits to mid-single digits, and adjusted EPS guidance was lowered to a range of $13.25 to $14 [11] - Despite solid fundamentals, the stock's valuation premium is difficult to justify, trading at a P/E ratio of 38, above the five-year average of around 35 [12] Investment Perspective - Current shareholders may find enough strong points to hold, but investors on the sidelines may discover better value and upside potential elsewhere in the market [14]

Table of Contents UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 Form10-Q (Mark one) ☑ QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the quarterly period ended March 31, 2025 Or ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from to Commission file number 1-14037 ____________________ Moody's Corporation (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) Delaware 13 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Moody's achieved record revenue of $1.9 billion in Q1 2025, up 8% year-over-year [12][36] - Adjusted operating margin reached 51.7%, an increase of 100 basis points from the previous year [12][36] - Adjusted diluted EPS grew 14% to $3.83 [12][36] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Moody's Investors Service (MIS) revenue grew 8% with issuance growth of 9%, achieving quarterly revenue of $1.1 billion [12][36] - Moody's Analytics (MA) revenue was $859 million, also up 8%, with Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth of 9% [36][37] - Decision Solutions within MA saw ARR growth of 12%, driven by KYC, insurance, and banking solutions [37][39] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Private credit was a significant contributor to growth, with 143 private credit-related deals in Q1 2025, up from 69 in Q1 2024 [13][14] - Data center debt issuance reached $4 billion in Q1 2025, indicating strong demand for financing in digital infrastructure [16][17] - Economic losses from extreme weather events in Q1 2025 were reported at $83 billion, above the 21st-century average [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on enhancing its earnings power and market position amidst economic volatility [11][28] - Investments in AI and digital transformation are central to the company's strategy, with a focus on generative AI to drive growth and efficiency [22][23] - A partnership with MSCI aims to provide independent risk assessments for private credit investments, enhancing transparency in the market [31][123] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged increased uncertainty in the market due to tariffs and economic conditions, leading to a more conservative guidance approach [28][44] - The company expects a decrease in MIS rated issuance for 2025, projecting low to high single-digit declines [46][48] - Despite short-term challenges, management remains confident in the long-term demand for their solutions driven by deep market currents [30][55] Other Important Information - The company maintains a strong financial profile and plans to return at least $1.3 billion to shareholders in 2025 [54] - Adjusted diluted EPS guidance for 2025 is set between $13.25 and $14, representing a 9% growth at the midpoint [52] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you walk us through your assumptions around what acquisitions were included in the prior guidance versus now? - No change in M&A assumptions with respect to MA revenue guidance; CAPE Analytics was already included [58][59] Question: What were the key assumptions that were made in terms of M&A volume? - Adjusted M&A growth expectations down to 15% from 50% due to trade policy uncertainty [65] Question: How sensitive are Research and Insights and Data and Information to current macro trends? - Research and Insights growth is mainly from CreditView; Data and Information faced slower growth due to government attrition [68][71] Question: Can you explain the guidance for a decrease in issuance versus flat to increased revenue growth for 2025? - Annual pricing initiatives and a positive mix shift are expected to support revenue despite decreased issuance [74][75] Question: Can you elaborate on the costs and efficiency program? - The efficiency program is generating gains, with expectations for MA margins to ramp into the mid-30s range by Q4 [80][81] Question: How do Fed rate cuts impact your issuance outlook? - Rate cuts present mixed effects; decelerating economic growth could negatively impact issuance despite lower rates [87] Question: What is the revenue model for the partnership with MSCI? - The revenue model has not been disclosed, but there is significant demand for rigorous third-party credit assessments in the private credit market [121][122] Question: What is the outlook for first-time mandates? - First-time mandates are expected to continue growing, particularly in the private credit market [128][129] Question: Are tariffs driving demand for KYC solutions? - Tariffs may drive demand for KYC and supply chain risk solutions, with a new corporate platform launched to address these needs [132]

Moody's reported strong first-quarter results in April 2025 with solid growth in both earnings and revenue.Credit ratings, research, and risk analysis provider Moody's Corp. (MCO 2.05%) reported first-quarter 2025 earnings on Tuesday, April 22, that topped analysts' consensus expectations. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.83 came in ahead of the expected $3.52. Revenue of $1.924 billion was slightly over the anticipated $1.875 billion.Overall, Moody's achieved robust growth in Q1 2025, marking a succ ...