Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth-quarter net income was $169 million, with adjusted EBITDA at $594 million, reflecting strong phosphate prices and solid potash performance despite low prices [9][10][14] - The company experienced a $390 million foreign exchange loss in the fourth quarter due to the depreciation of the Brazilian real and Canadian dollar [36][38] - Adjusted EBITDA for the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment was $82 million, but underlying performance was estimated at around $120 million after accounting for foreign exchange losses [40][41] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In potash, the Esterhazy complex continues to generate strong cash flow, with the Belle Plaine potash mine achieving a 100% operating rate and record production in 2024 [10][11] - Phosphate supply remains tight with strong demand, leading to elevated prices and stripping margins [13][14] - The Brazilian segment showed strong underlying performance with healthy margins and a distribution margin at the high end of the annual normalized range [17][18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global corn demand is expected to lower the stocks-to-use ratio, leading to rising corn prices, while soybean prices have also improved [23][24] - Potash demand is expected to remain strong, particularly in Malaysia and Indonesia, with Chinese demand solid after record shipments in previous years [27][28] - Supply constraints are anticipated in potash markets due to production cuts from major producers in China and uncertainties in Laos [28][29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on shedding non-core assets and reallocating capital for better returns, with several deals already announced [19][20] - Investments are being made in core business areas, including a new blending plant in Brazil and the growth of Mosaic Biosciences, which doubled revenues in 2024 [21][22] - The company is committed to improving operational performance and cost control, targeting $150 million in cost reductions [32][45] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects constructive agriculture and fertilizer fundamentals in 2025, with positive market dynamics ahead [8][48] - The company is optimistic about its operational performance and financial foundation, positioning itself well to benefit from strong market conditions [48][49] - Management acknowledged challenges from geopolitical factors and foreign exchange impacts but remains confident in the underlying business performance [12][36] Other Important Information - The company will discontinue monthly price and volume releases due to feedback indicating they were not particularly helpful [47] - The upcoming Analyst Day on March 18th will provide further insights into the company's strategies and performance [21][46] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of phosphate production sacrifices in 2024 - Management confirmed that approximately 700,000 tons were sacrificed due to extraordinary events, affecting production guidance for 2025 [50][52] Question: Future asset monetization opportunities - Management is reviewing all assets for acceptable returns, with ongoing processes for potential divestitures, including Carlsbad [59][62] Question: Global phosphate shipment outlook - Management indicated that supply-side limitations are constraining demand growth for phosphates, maintaining high stripping margins [67][70] Question: Potash production capacity and demand - Management noted limited upside on maximum production due to operational constraints and supply chain issues [78][80] Question: CapEx and working capital management - Management expressed a target to reduce sustaining CapEx and indicated that working capital will increase due to growth in production volumes [84][89] Question: Cost savings from Fertilizantes - Management confirmed that the remaining cost savings will primarily come from phosphates and potash, with additional savings expected from operational improvements [92][98] Question: Credit risk management in Brazil - Management has shifted focus to lower-risk customers and mega farmers to mitigate credit risks in Brazil [106][107] Question: Tariff impacts on potash pricing - Management stated that any potential tariffs would likely be borne by downstream customers, but affordability remains a key factor for demand [109][110]

The Mosaic Company Fourth Quarter 2024 Results February 27, 2025 2 Fourth Quarter 2024 Performance | CONSOLIDATED | | | OPERATING | | | NET | | ADJUSTED (1) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | REVENUES | | | EARNINGS | | | INCOME | | EBITDA | | | $2,816M | | | $100M | | | $169M | | $594M | | | PHOSPHATE | | | | | POTASH | | | MOSAIC FERTILIZANTES | | | Net | Operating | Adjusted(1) | | Net | Operating | Adjusted(1) | Net Revenues | Operating Earnings | Adjusted(1) EBITDA | | ...

Core Insights - The Mosaic Company reported a significant decline in net income for Q4 2024, with net income at $169 million or 53 cents per share, down from $365.3 million or $1.06 per share in the same quarter last year [1][7] - Adjusted earnings per share were 45 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 53 cents [1][2] - Net sales for the quarter decreased by approximately 10.6% year over year to $2,815.9 million, also missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,929.4 million [2] Segment Performance - Potash segment net sales were $557 million, down around 26.5% from $758 million in the prior-year quarter, but exceeded the estimate of $518.5 million. Sales volumes were 2.2 million tons, down 15.4% year over year, missing the estimate of 2.3 million tons. The segment's gross margin fell to $55 per ton from $99 per ton [3] - Phosphate division net sales increased by 8.8% to $1,165 million from $1,070 million in the prior-year period, surpassing the estimate of $1,157.8 million. Sales volumes totaled 1.62 million tons, up 2.5% year over year, but lagged behind the estimate of 1.7 million tons. The gross margin decreased to $85 per ton from $88 per ton [4] - Mosaic Fertilizantes segment net sales were approximately $1,088 million, down about 8.7% year over year, but exceeded the estimate of $1,141.3 million. Sales volume rose 3.7% to 2.2 million tons, with a gross margin of $46 per ton, up from $44 per ton in the prior-year quarter [5] Financial Overview - At the end of the quarter, Mosaic had cash and cash equivalents of $273 million, down 21.8% year over year. Long-term debt increased by 3.1% to $3,332.3 million. Net cash provided by operating activities declined nearly 59.2% year over year to $219.3 million [6] - For the full year 2024, Mosaic recorded a net income of $174.9 million or 55 cents per share, down from $1,164.9 million or $3.50 per share a year ago. The company's adjusted EBITDA for the same period was $2.2 billion, with total revenues of $11.1 billion, down 18.9% year over year [7] Market Outlook - The phosphate markets are expected to remain tight due to ongoing supply limitations and rising demand for fertilizers, fuel, and industrial uses. China's phosphate export outlook is positive for the long term, driven by domestic consumption and industrial needs [8] - Potash markets are anticipated to improve in the short to medium term, influenced by output cuts from major producers in Russia, Belarus, and China, along with challenges to planned expansions in Laos. The potential impact of tariffs on Canadian potash exports to the U.S. remains uncertain, but could lead to higher prices and additional costs for U.S. farmers [9] Stock Performance - Shares of Mosaic have declined by 19.5% over the past year, compared to a 6% decline in the industry [10]

Core Insights - Mosaic reported revenue of $2.82 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, a decrease of 10.6% year-over-year, with EPS at $0.45 compared to $0.71 in the same quarter last year [1] - The revenue fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.93 billion, resulting in a surprise of -3.87%, while the EPS also missed the consensus estimate of $0.53 by -15.09% [1] Financial Performance - Mosaic's stock has returned -12.1% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -2.2% change, and currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [3] - Net Sales for Phosphates were reported at $1.17 billion, slightly below the $1.20 billion average estimate, reflecting an 8.9% year-over-year increase [4] - Net Sales for Mosaic Fertilizantes were $1.09 billion, compared to the $1.17 billion average estimate, indicating an 8.7% year-over-year decline [4] - Net Sales for Potash were $557 million, slightly above the average estimate of $551.75 million, but showed a significant year-over-year decrease of 26.5% [4] Key Metrics - The average finished product selling price for Potash was $249, exceeding the five-analyst average estimate of $242.70 [4] - Phosphates sales volumes for total finished products were 1,622 KTon, below the estimated 1,647.52 KTon [4] - Realized costs for Phosphates blended rock were $87 per Ton, higher than the four-analyst average estimate of $83 per Ton [4] - The average finished product selling price for Mosaic Fertilizantes was $486, significantly lower than the estimated $552.56 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Mosaic's quarterly earnings of $0.45 per share missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.53 per share, representing a year-over-year decline from $0.71 per share [1] - The company reported revenues of $2.82 billion for the quarter, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.87% and down from $3.15 billion a year ago [2] Financial Performance - The earnings surprise for the recent quarter was -15.09%, and the company has only surpassed consensus EPS estimates once in the last four quarters [1][2] - The previous quarter's earnings were also below expectations, with actual earnings of $0.34 per share compared to an expected $0.58, resulting in a surprise of -41.38% [1] Market Position - Mosaic shares have increased by approximately 2.6% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 1.3% [3] - The current Zacks Rank for Mosaic is 3 (Hold), indicating that the stock is expected to perform in line with the market in the near future [6] Future Outlook - The consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.42 on revenues of $2.69 billion, while the estimate for the current fiscal year is $2.20 on revenues of $11.53 billion [7] - The outlook for the Fertilizers industry is relatively strong, with the industry currently ranked in the top 26% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential for outperformance [8]

Exhibit 99.2 The Mosaic Company Selected Calendar Quarter Financial Information (Unaudited) | | Q1 2023 | | | Q2 2023 | | Q3 2023 | | Q4 2023 | | Q1 2024 | | Q2 2024 | | Q3 2024 | | Q4 2024 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Consolidated data (in millions, except per share) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Diluted net earnings (loss) per share (a) Notable items impact on earnings per share | $ | 1.28 0.14 | $ | 1.11 0.07 | $ | (0.01 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Mosaic Company (MOS) is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on February 27, with anticipated challenges due to weak fertilizer prices and operational disruptions from strikes and hurricanes [1][2]. Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mosaic's fourth-quarter consolidated sales is $2,929.4 million, indicating a 7% decline from the same quarter last year [5]. Factors Affecting Performance - Operational disruptions, including delays in Canpotex shipments due to Canadian rail and port strikes, are expected to negatively impact potash volumes [6]. - The company is projected to have potash sales volumes of 2.317 million tons and phosphate sales volumes of 1.701 million tons for the fourth quarter [7]. - Softer fertilizer prices have adversely affected sales and margins, with prices for phosphate and potash declining since mid-2022 due to the Russia-Ukraine war and sanctions on Belarus [9]. Earnings Prediction - The Earnings ESP for MOS is -1.89%, with the consensus estimate for earnings at 53 cents for the fourth quarter [11]. - The current Zacks Rank for MOS is 3 (Hold), indicating that the model does not predict an earnings beat for this quarter [10][11]. Stock Performance - Mosaic's shares have decreased by 19.9% over the past year, contrasting with a 3.9% decline in the Zacks Fertilizers industry [3].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast that Mosaic (MOS) will report quarterly earnings of $0.53 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 25.4%, with anticipated revenues of $2.93 billion, a decline of 7% compared to the previous year [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised upward by 12.2% over the past 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong relationship between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue and Sales Forecasts - Analysts estimate 'Net sales- Phosphates' will reach $1.20 billion, a year-over-year increase of 12% [5]. - 'Net sales- Mosaic Fertilizantes' is forecasted at $1.17 billion, indicating a slight decline of 1.6% from the prior year [5]. - The average prediction for 'Net sales- Potash' is $551.75 million, reflecting a significant decline of 27.2% compared to the previous year [5]. Price and Cost Estimates - The consensus estimate for 'Potash - Average finished product selling price (destination)' is $242.70, down from $294 a year ago [6]. - 'Phosphates - Sales volumes - Total Finished Product' is projected to reach 1,647.52 KTon, an increase from 1,582 KTon reported in the same quarter last year [6]. - 'Potash - Sales volumes - Total Finished Product' is expected to be 2,286.80 KTon, down from 2,577 KTon a year ago [7]. - 'Phosphates - Realized costs - Blended rock' is expected to be $83.00 per Ton, up from $77 per Ton in the previous year [8]. Additional Metrics - 'Mosaic Fertilizantes - Average finished product selling price (destination)' is estimated at $552.56, slightly up from $552 a year ago [9]. - 'Phosphates - Average finished product selling price (destination)' is projected to reach $680.87, compared to $658 in the same quarter last year [10]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Mosaic have returned -8.7%, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -0.5% change, indicating a potential alignment with overall market performance [11].

Ravenna is a small city located in an area south of the Po river delta and a short distance from the Adriatic Sea. In the early Middle Ages, it became the capital of the Exarchate of Italy, a districtI graduated in Languages in 1988, and then worked for 25 years as an editor at various publishing houses. In 2005, fate turned my attention to the world of finance, and when I lost my job in 2013, I decided to dedicate myself to it. In particular, I focused on building an income portfolio based on ETFs and CEFs ...

The Mosaic Company’s (MOS) stock looks promising at the moment. MOS benefits from healthy demand for phosphate and potash and actions to improve its cost structure. Rising earnings estimates and cheap valuation are other positives. MOS stock has rallied roughly 12% over the past month.  We are positive on the company’s prospects and believe that the time is right for you to add the stock to the portfolio as it is poised to carry the momentum ahead.Let's see what makes MOS stock an attractive investment opti ...