Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company delivered EBITDA of $6.5 billion, equivalent to $121 EBITDA per ton shipped, nearly double the margin achieved at previous cyclical low points, indicating a structural improvement in earnings power [9] - The company generated $1.9 billion of investable cash flow in 2025, bringing the total since 2021 to $23.5 billion, with a proposed base dividend of $0.60 per share, marking a doubling of the dividend over the past five years [10][11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Strategic projects contributed $0.7 billion of new EBITDA in 2025, driven by strong performance in Liberia and the build-out of renewables capacity in India [9] - The company expects higher steel production and shipments across all regions in 2026, supported by operational improvements and strengthened trade protections [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The European market has seen significant changes in trade policy, including the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which is expected to create a more balanced market structure and restore profitability [4][5] - The company anticipates that trade measures in Canada and Brazil will provide incremental support to results in those regions [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The growth strategy focuses on energy transition, expanding the renewables portfolio, and building electrical steel capacities to support electrification and mobility [6][7] - The company remains committed to capital allocation where the strongest returns can be achieved, consistently generating solid investable cash flow [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to generate positive free cash flows in 2026 and beyond, emphasizing a disciplined approach to capital allocation [11] - The management highlighted the importance of customer demand as a signpost for bringing idle capacity online, ensuring profitability and sustainable returns on capital [19] Other Important Information - The company has reduced its share count by 38% over the past five years, significantly enhancing value per share [10] - The management is focused on maintaining a balance between returning capital to shareholders and investing in growth opportunities [60][63] Q&A Session Summary Question: How quickly can you bring additional capacity online in Europe? - The company is well positioned to bring idle capacity online quickly, with no significant reline or rehiring needed, aiming to meet projected deadlines [19] Question: What are the signposts for bringing capacity online? - Customer demand is the primary signpost, with a focus on ensuring profitable returns on capital employed [19] Question: Can you provide insights on the profit bridges from Q4 to Q1? - North America is expected to see a recovery in volumes and prices, while Europe will also experience higher shipments and prices, particularly in Q2 [23][24] Question: What are the next steps for decarbonization projects in Europe? - The company is evaluating decarbonization of its Dunkirk facility, with a focus on economic viability and sequential project execution [31][32] Question: What is the outlook for the European market and potential consolidation? - The company is comfortable with its current footprint in Europe and does not see significant benefits from further consolidation at this time [73] Question: How is the company addressing risks in India and Mexico? - The company acknowledges heightened risks but remains confident in the growth potential in India, with ongoing government support for the steel industry [88][90]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company delivered EBITDA of $6.5 billion, equivalent to $121 EBITDA per ton shipped, reflecting a structural improvement in earnings power compared to previous cyclical low points [8] - The company generated $1.9 billion of investable cash flow in 2025, bringing the total since 2021 to $23.5 billion [9] - A proposed base dividend of $0.60 per share marks a doubling of the dividend over the past five years, indicating increasing confidence in the company's outlook [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Strategic projects contributed $0.7 billion of new EBITDA in 2025, driven by strong performance in Liberia and the build-out of renewables capacity in India [8] - The company is expanding its renewables portfolio and building electrical steel capacities to support electrification and mobility [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The European market has seen significant changes in trade policy, including the implementation of a carbon border adjustment mechanism and tariff rate quotas, which are expected to restore profitability in the steel industry [3][4] - The company anticipates higher steel production and shipments across all regions in 2026, supported by operational improvements and strengthened trade protections [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The growth strategy focuses on energy transition and capital allocation to high-return opportunities, with a commitment to maintaining competitiveness [5] - The company aims to decarbonize operations in Europe, specifically targeting the Dunkirk facility for an electric arc furnace setup [31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to generate positive free cash flows in 2026 and beyond, emphasizing a disciplined approach to capital allocation [10] - The company recognizes heightened risks in markets like India and Mexico but remains optimistic about growth prospects due to strong demand [90][92] Other Important Information - The company has reduced its share count by 38% over the past five years, significantly enhancing value per share [9] - The company is evaluating further expansion in Hazira, India, with a targeted capacity of 15 million tons and potential for additional greenfield facilities [41] Q&A Session Summary Question: Capacity ramp-up in Europe - Management indicated that they can quickly bring idle capacity online in Europe, with customer demand being the key signpost for this decision [18][19] Question: Profit bridges from Q4 to Q1 - Management noted operational improvements in North America and expected higher shipments and prices in both North America and Europe [23][27] Question: Decarbonization projects in Europe - Management confirmed that economic conditions are favorable for decarbonization projects, with a sequential approach to implementation [31] Question: Market consolidation in Europe - Management expressed comfort with their current footprint in Europe and did not see significant benefits from further consolidation at this time [74] Question: Impact of import quotas - Management stated that they are well-positioned to meet demand from reduced imports, with no significant additional CapEx required [52][53] Question: Dividend increase and capital return strategy - Management clarified that the capital allocation framework remains unchanged, with a focus on returning 50% of free cash flow to shareholders [62][64]

Core Insights - ArcelorMittal S.A. has formalized a long-term amendment to its Mineral Development Agreement with the Government of Liberia, extending its iron ore mining rights through 2050 with an option for an additional 25 years [1][7] Investment and Expansion Plans - The revised agreement, approved by Liberia's legislature, supports ArcelorMittal's $1.8 billion expansion plan, which will increase its total investment in Liberia to approximately $3.5 billion [2] - The expansion aims to boost iron ore shipments from about 5 million tons per annum (mtpa) to 20 mtpa by 2026, with potential growth up to 30 mtpa depending on further infrastructure upgrades [2] Infrastructure and Logistics Enhancements - The deal includes significant logistics improvements, such as upgrades to the Tokadeh–Buchanan rail corridor and port facilities to accommodate higher export volumes, while ensuring reserved rail access for ore transportation [3] Financial Implications - ArcelorMittal will make a $200 million payment to the Liberian government for the extension of mining rights and reserved railroad access, which is expected to enhance government revenues through increased royalties and taxes [4] Market Performance - Shares of ArcelorMittal have increased by 97.6% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 54.3% [6]

4Q 2025 and FY 2025 Financial Results February 5, 2026 1. LTIFR = Lost time injury frequency rate defined as Lost Time Injuries (LTI) per 1,000,000 worked hours (own personnel and contractors) and includes fatalities; A LTI is an incident that causes an injury that prevents the person from returning to his/her next scheduled shift or work period Year 1 (2025) – Laying the foundations for change Year 2 – Shifting into the implementation and scale phase Roadmaps have been established at the Corporate and site ...

Group 1 - ArcelorMittal reported results for the final quarter of 2025 that exceeded market expectations, indicating a recovery in Europe's steel industry [1] - The company's performance reflects broader positive trends within the steel sector in Europe, suggesting a potential turnaround [1]

Group 1 - The steel maker is implementing measures to protect domestic production, which could enhance its market share in the continent [1] - The company aims to reverse the decline in earnings experienced last year [1]

Core Insights - ArcelorMittal reported resilient financial performance in 2025 despite significant headwinds, with an EBITDA of $6.5 billion and a net income of $3.2 billion, reflecting strong operational improvements and strategic investments [1][4][16]. Financial Performance - In 4Q 2025, sales decreased by 4.4% to $15.0 billion compared to 3Q 2025, primarily due to lower shipments [5][25]. - For the full year 2025, sales decreased by 1.7% to $61.4 billion, driven by a 2.3% reduction in average steel selling prices [16]. - Operating income for 12M 2025 was $3.6 billion, a 9.6% increase from $3.3 billion in 12M 2024, reflecting a positive impact from exceptional items [17]. - EBITDA for 12M 2025 decreased by 7.3% to $6.5 billion, influenced by weaker results in North America and lower contributions from India and Brazil [18]. - The company generated $1.9 billion in investable cash flow over the past 12 months, consistent with the previous year [1][24]. Safety and Sustainability - The company has made significant progress in safety performance, with a lost time injury frequency rate (LTIF) improving to 0.65x in 2025 from 0.70x in 2024 [10][11]. - ArcelorMittal is in the second year of a three-year safety transformation program aimed at establishing a consistent safety culture across the Group [1][11]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is well-positioned to benefit from a balanced and fair European steel market, with expectations of increased domestic demand due to new trade measures [2][8]. - ArcelorMittal is focusing on capturing opportunities in the energy transition, with plans to build renewable energy capacity of 2.8GW by the end of 2028 and expand low carbon-intensity steel production [2][15]. - Strategic growth projects contributed $0.7 billion to EBITDA in 2025, with an additional $1.6 billion anticipated from ongoing projects [2][9]. Capital Management - The Board proposed to increase the annual base dividend to $0.60 per share for FY 2026, reflecting improved earnings [1][53]. - The company repurchased 8.8 million shares for $262 million in 2025, reducing the fully diluted share count by 38% since September 2020 [1][54]. Outlook - The company expects world ex-China apparent steel demand to grow by 2% in FY 2026, with production and shipments anticipated to increase across all regions [4][8]. - Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to be between $4.5 billion and $5.0 billion, supporting growth initiatives [4].

Core Viewpoint - ArcelorMittal is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.56 per share, reflecting a 7.7% increase year-over-year, with revenues projected at $15.76 billion, a 7.1% increase compared to the previous year [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 13.7% in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue Projections - Analysts estimate 'Sales- North America' to be $3.06 billion, a year-over-year increase of 16.6% [5]. - 'Sales- Brazil' is projected at $2.77 billion, reflecting a decrease of 4.2% from the previous year [5]. - 'Sales- Sustainable Solutions' is expected to reach $2.22 billion, down 7.5% from the prior year [5]. Production and Pricing Estimates - 'Sales- Mining' is projected at $859.64 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of 22.1% [6]. - Total crude steel production is forecasted at 14 million metric tons, unchanged from the same quarter last year [6]. - 'Europe - Long shipments' are expected to be 2,096 thousand metric tons, slightly down from 2,133 thousand metric tons year-over-year [7]. - The average steel selling price in North America is anticipated to be $1,018.23, up from $892.00 in the same quarter last year [7]. Regional Production and Pricing - 'Brazil - Crude steel production' is estimated at 3,586 thousand metric tons, up from 3,527 thousand metric tons year-over-year [8]. - The average steel selling price in Brazil is projected to be $735.15, down from $773.00 in the previous year [8]. - 'Europe - Crude steel production' is expected to be 7,773 thousand metric tons, an increase from 7,696 thousand metric tons year-over-year [9]. - The average steel selling price in Europe is estimated at $895.62, up from $852.00 in the same quarter last year [9]. Shipment Estimates - 'North America - Steel shipments' are projected to reach 2,505 thousand metric tons, an increase from 2,391 thousand metric tons year-over-year [10]. - ArcelorMittal shares have increased by 21% in the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which rose by 1.8% [10].

Core Viewpoint - ArcelorMittal has released its fourth quarter and full year 2025 sell-side analyst consensus figures, which are based on estimates from approximately 15 brokers using an external tool managed by Visible Alpha [1][2]. Financial Estimates - The consensus estimates for Q4 2025 include an EBITDA of $1,531 million, net income of $390 million, and earnings per share of $0.51 [3]. - For the full year 2025, the consensus estimates are an EBITDA of $6,466 million, net income of $3,321 million, and earnings per share of $4.36 [3]. Analyst Participation - The consensus figures are derived from the contributions of 14 sell-side analysts who have provided updated estimates through Visible Alpha [4][5].

Core Insights - The Government of Liberia and ArcelorMittal have signed an amendment to the Mineral Development Agreement, extending it to 2050 with a potential 25-year renewal, reinforcing ArcelorMittal's long-term commitment to mining in Liberia [1][3] - The recent inauguration of ArcelorMittal's iron ore concentration facility at Tokadeh highlights Liberia's emerging role as a strategic hub for mineral development in West Africa [2][3] - The expansion project, valued at $1.8 billion, increases ArcelorMittal's total investment in Liberia to $3.5 billion, marking the largest foreign direct investment in the country's post-war economy [3][11] Investment and Infrastructure - The expansion project will boost iron ore shipments from approximately 5 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) to 20 mtpa by 2026, with plans for further increases beyond this level [4][5] - ArcelorMittal is investing in railway infrastructure to support transportation capacity of up to 30 million tonnes annually, contingent on successful feasibility studies [5][6] - The agreement includes a $200 million payment to the Government of Liberia for mining rights and reserved access to railroad capacity [6] Economic Impact - The agreement is expected to significantly enhance Liberia's economy through increased employment opportunities and growth in local communities [7][11] - The quadrupling of iron ore output and exports by 2026 is projected to drive GDP growth and create new opportunities for local procurement and small to medium-sized businesses [11] - ArcelorMittal has provided direct and indirect employment for approximately 8,000 people and has contributed significantly to local tax revenues and community development projects [10][11]