Core Insights - NiSource narrowly beat Wall Street expectations for fourth-quarter profit while reaffirming its 2026 earnings forecast and a robust capital spending roadmap to meet rising commercial power demand [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a fourth-quarter profit that exceeded Wall Street expectations, indicating strong financial performance [1] Future Outlook - NiSource reaffirmed its earnings forecast for 2026, suggesting confidence in future profitability and growth [1] - The company outlined a robust capital spending roadmap aimed at addressing increasing commercial power demand, indicating a proactive approach to future challenges [1]

Financial Performance - NiSource, Inc. reaffirmed its consolidated adjusted earnings guidance for the fourth quarter in the range of $2.02 to $2.07 per share [1] - Analysts expect the company to report an average earnings of $2.05 per share for the year, excluding special items [1] Investment Plans - The company plans to invest approximately $28.0 billion from 2026 to 2030 under its consolidated capital plan, which includes utility system modernization and nearly $7.0 billion in strategic data center infrastructure investments [2] - This investment plan is expected to support a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8 to 9 percent for consolidated adjusted earnings per share and a growth of 9 to 11 percent for consolidated rate base from 2026 through 2033 [3] Market Performance - In pre-market trading, NiSource is trading at $45.59, reflecting an increase of $0.86 or 1.92 percent [4]

Customer Operations - NiSource serves approximately 3.8 million customers across six states, primarily through regulated natural gas and electric utility operations[22]. - Columbia Operations provides natural gas to about 2.4 million customers, operating approximately 37,300 miles of distribution pipeline[28]. - NIPSCO Operations distributes natural gas to approximately 0.9 million customers and generates electricity for around 0.5 million customers in northern Indiana[32][38]. Generation Capacity and Resources - NIPSCO has a total generating capacity of 3,967 MW, including eight renewable generation facilities, three of which were placed into service in 2025[40]. - NIPSCO's generating units met 55.4% of its overall system load during 2025, with the remainder procured through Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) and the MISO market[42]. - NIPSCO's 2024 Integrated Resource Plan anticipates additional generation resources through 2029 to support capacity requirements driven by data center load[41]. Regulatory Compliance and Financials - Regulatory compliance is a priority, with management actively monitoring changes to laws and regulations that may impact operations and financial results[45]. - Columbia of Pennsylvania has an approved rate of return on equity (ROE) of 10.00% with a requested incremental revenue of $110.4 million, effective January 2026[47]. - Columbia of Maryland has an approved ROE of 9.80% with a requested incremental revenue of $10.7 million, effective April 2025[47]. - Columbia of Ohio has an approved ROE of 9.60% with a requested incremental revenue of $221.4 million, effective March 2023[47]. - NIPSCO - Gas has an approved ROE of 9.75% with a requested incremental revenue of $161.9 million, effective August 2024[47]. - NIPSCO - Electric has an approved ROE of 9.75% with a requested incremental revenue of $368.7 million, effective July 2025[47]. Environmental Goals - The company aims for net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2040, having reduced Scope 1 GHG emissions by approximately 72% from 2005 levels as of the end of 2024[65]. - The Maryland Department of the Environment has adopted a plan to achieve a 60% reduction in GHG emissions by 2031 from 2006 levels, with a net zero goal by 2045[64]. - NIPSCO continues to execute its electric generation transition consistent with its Integrated Resource Plans from 2018, 2021, and 2024[67]. Workforce and Employee Programs - The company has 7,668 full-time and 70 part-time active employees as of December 31, 2025, with 32% subject to collective bargaining agreements[70]. - NiSource reported a commitment to equal employment opportunities, enhancing corporate culture and operational strategies to increase revenue[71]. - The company emphasizes talent attraction through partnerships with local colleges and job fairs to recruit diverse candidates[72]. - NiSource offers leadership development programs with participation from employees at all levels, aiming to enhance skills and succession readiness[73]. - The company has formal succession plans for its CEO and key officers, reviewed annually to ensure a strong talent pipeline[75]. - Employee well-being programs include competitive medical, dental, and vision benefits, along with paid time off for wellness and family needs[76]. - NiSource invests in internal communications and employee engagement surveys to monitor organizational health and culture[78]. - The company has a robust ethics and compliance training program, ensuring employees understand ethical violations and reporting mechanisms[79]. Operational and Financial Risks - NiSource faces operational risks including aging infrastructure, technology dependency, and potential public safety risks[87]. - Financial risks include substantial indebtedness and exposure to regulatory rate reviews that could impact earnings and liquidity[91]. - The company is focused on data center growth in northern Indiana, which presents both opportunities and significant operational and regulatory risks[91]. - The company plans to retire two coal units at R.M. Schahfer Generating Station and a coal unit at Michigan City Generating Station by the end of 2028, with previous plans set for 2025[105]. - The company expects to construct 400 MW of new battery storage and two 1,300 MW combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) facilities, anticipated to reach commercial operation between 2028 and 2032[109]. - The company faces risks associated with aging infrastructure, which may lead to increased capital expenditures and maintenance costs[102]. - Supply chain issues related to materials, labor, and transportation logistics may cause delays in maintenance and replacement of aging infrastructure, potentially impacting revenues[103]. - The company may require significant future capital expenditures to meet MISO obligations, which could negatively impact its financial position and cash flows[107]. - The company anticipates that renewable generation, battery energy storage, and natural gas generation will be primary sources for meeting electric generation capacity and reliability obligations[106]. - The company may experience operational impasses or litigation due to joint venture arrangements with third-party investors, which could lead to business delays[96]. - The company is subject to regulatory oversight for capital projects, which may include requirements for permits and approvals from governmental agencies[109]. - The company may face challenges in obtaining insurance on acceptable terms, which could adversely affect its financial results if significant losses occur[104]. - The company is facing risks related to increasing delivery lead times and material shortages, which may impact the completion of major capital projects[111]. - Regulatory approvals for capital projects are critical, and delays in obtaining these approvals could lead to increased costs and project alterations[112]. - A significant portion of energy sales is sensitive to weather fluctuations and commodity costs, which can materially impact financial results[115]. - The company relies on coal and natural gas for electricity generation, and price fluctuations in these commodities may affect customer demand and financial performance[116]. - Disruptions in transportation and supply chains could hinder the ability to deliver gas and electric services, potentially leading to increased costs[117]. - The company faces challenges in attracting and retaining qualified personnel, which could adversely affect operational efficiency and service reliability[118]. - Cybersecurity risks are increasing, with potential breaches impacting operational technology and customer data security, which could lead to significant liabilities[128]. - Compliance with evolving cybersecurity regulations may require substantial resources and could adversely affect financial condition if not met[133]. - The company has experienced an increase in cybersecurity attack attempts, highlighting vulnerabilities in its information systems[129]. - The operational impact of labor negotiations and potential disruptions could materially affect business operations and financial results[121]. Financial Performance - Total consolidated indebtedness was $16,213.5 million as of December 31, 2025, indicating significant reliance on long-term debt for capital expenditures[143]. - The company aims to achieve net zero Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions by 2040, which will require supportive regulatory policies and technological advancements[141]. - Increased frequency of extreme weather events due to climate change is expected to raise costs for safely delivering products and services[137]. - The company faces reputational risks related to environmental practices and the ability to meet carbon emission reduction goals, which could adversely affect financial performance[135]. - Supply chain constraints may impact the timely restoration of services, potentially leading to negative public perception and financial repercussions[135]. - Adverse economic conditions, including inflation and interest rate increases, could materially affect revenue growth and operational costs[150]. - The company may incur significant additional indebtedness to construct generation and transmission assets for future data center customers[145]. - A drop in credit ratings could lead to increased financing costs and limit access to capital markets, adversely impacting liquidity and operational flexibility[146]. - The company is subject to operational risks associated with the transition to a lower-carbon economy, which may affect demand for its services[138]. - Regulatory changes related to climate change could materially impact the company's business and financial position[140]. - Revenues are subject to regulatory reviews, impacting the rates charged to customers and overall financial results[153]. - Electric and natural gas companies are entitled to charge rates sufficient to recover operating and capital costs, but these rates are subject to regulatory approval[155]. - Regulatory proceedings can be lengthy and contentious, potentially affecting the ability to recover costs and earn adequate returns[156]. - Changes in rates may not align with when costs are incurred, leading to financial uncertainty[157]. - Regulatory bodies may impose downward adjustments in allowed return on equity (ROE), adversely affecting financial position and cash flows[158]. - Compliance with environmental laws and regulations may require significant expenditures that are not always recoverable[171]. - The company faces risks related to potential changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission laws, which could impact financial results and cash flows[173]. - The company has a pending application with the EPA regarding the operation of a CCR impoundment, which could affect future operations[175]. - Significant goodwill exists, and any future impairments could negatively impact earnings and compliance with financing agreements[166]. - The company is dependent on cash generated by subsidiaries to meet debt obligations and pay dividends, making it vulnerable to subsidiary performance[164]. - The IRA imposes a 15% minimum tax rate on corporations with annual income exceeding $1 billion, along with a 1% excise tax on stock repurchases[177]. - The construction of Contract Assets and generation or transmission assets involves significant risks, including potential construction delays and cost overruns, which could negatively impact returns under the ADS Contract[180]. - The ADS Contract requires significant capital investment before returns are realized, with potential liquidated damages for late delivery or performance shortfalls[181]. - Financing for the construction of Contract Assets may require significant additional long-term debt and equity, which could impact credit ratings and overall cost of capital[182]. - ADS has the right to terminate the ADS Contract or reduce committed capacity, which could adversely affect future earnings and financial condition[191]. - The expected generating capacity of the Contract Assets is approximately equivalent to all of NIPSCO's existing generating assets, highlighting customer concentration risk[190]. - Future data center contracts may contain similar termination and capacity reduction provisions, exposing the company to comparable risks[193]. - External factors such as inflation and market conditions could impact borrowing costs and the ability to secure financing for future projects[183]. - The partnership with ADS may limit strategic flexibility and increase reliance on equity financing for future investments[185]. - The return structure under the ADS Contract differs from traditional utility operations, potentially resulting in lower overall returns[187]. Revenue Growth - Total operating revenues for 2025 reached $6,642.2 million, a 21.7% increase from $5,455.1 million in 2024[352]. - Customer revenues increased to $6,522.8 million in 2025, up from $5,282.9 million in 2024, reflecting a growth of 23.5%[352]. - Operating income for 2025 was $1,835.3 million, representing a 26.1% increase compared to $1,455.5 million in 2024[352]. - Net income attributable to NiSource for 2025 was $929.5 million, a 22.2% increase from $760.4 million in 2024[352]. - Basic earnings per share for 2025 were $1.96, up from $1.63 in 2024, indicating a growth of 20.2%[352]. - The cost of energy in 2025 was $1,584.4 million, which is a significant increase from $1,132.2 million in 2024, reflecting a rise of 40%[352]. - Total operating expenses for 2025 amounted to $4,806.9 million, a 20.2% increase from $3,999.6 million in 2024[352]. - Interest expense for 2025 was $639.0 million, an increase from $517.2 million in 2024, marking a rise of 23.5%[352]. - Net income for 2025 reached $1,012.6 million, a 19.9% increase from $844.7 million in 2024[354]. - Total comprehensive income for 2025 was $1,036.8 million, up from $847.9 million in 2024, reflecting a significant growth of 22.3%[354]. - Net property, plant, and equipment increased to $28,688.2 million in 2025, compared to $25,453.9 million in 2024, representing a growth of 8.8%[357]. - Total assets rose to $35,858.7 million in 2025, an increase of 12.9% from $31,788.1 million in 2024[357]. - Accounts receivable increased to $1,238.1 million in 2025, up from $987.9 million in 2024, marking a growth of 25.3%[357]. - Total current assets amounted to $2,377.2 million in 2025, a rise of 14.3% from $2,080.2 million in 2024[357]. - Regulatory assets increased to $2,225.2 million in 2025, compared to $2,157.4 million in 2024, showing a growth of 3.1%[357]. - The company reported a net unrealized gain on available-for-sale securities of $4.1 million in 2025, up from $3.3 million in 2024[354]. - Goodwill remained stable at $1,485.9 million for both 2025 and 2024, indicating no change in this asset category[357]. - The company’s accumulated depreciation and amortization increased to $9,370.6 million in 2025 from $8,699.0 million in 2024, reflecting a growth of 7.7%[357].

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Financial Performance - NiSource reported a net income of $929.5 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, translating to $1.95 per diluted share, an increase from $739.7 million or $1.62 per diluted share in 2024[2]. - The non-GAAP adjusted net income for 2025 was $905.2 million, or $1.90 per adjusted EPS, compared to $798.6 million or $1.75 per adjusted EPS in 2024[3]. - NiSource achieved 2025 non-GAAP adjusted EPS above the guidance range and exceeded the non-GAAP FFO/Debt guidance[5]. Future Guidance - NiSource reaffirmed its 2026 non-GAAP consolidated adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02–$2.07, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8%-9% for adjusted EPS from 2026 to 2033[3][5]. - The company plans to invest approximately $28.0 billion from 2026 to 2030, including nearly $7.0 billion in strategic data center infrastructure investments[3]. - NiSource's capital investment plan is expected to support a consolidated rate base growth of 9%-11% from 2026 through 2033[3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company highlighted a landmark data center agreement with Amazon, contributing to its diversified portfolio across natural gas, electric, renewables, and data center projects[4]. - The company emphasized its commitment to affordability and efficiency through disciplined operations and technology leverage[4]. Customer Base and Sustainability - NiSource serves approximately 3.3 million natural gas customers and 500,000 electric customers across six states[8]. - The company is a member of the Dow Jones Sustainability - North America Index and recognized for its commitment to diversity and sustainability[8].

Core Viewpoint - NiSource (NI) is anticipated to report flat earnings of $0.49 per share for the quarter ended December 2025, with revenues expected to decline by 18.1% to $1.3 billion compared to the previous year [3][12]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is scheduled for February 11, and the stock may experience upward movement if earnings exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.52% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a slight positive sentiment among analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model shows that NiSource has an Earnings ESP of 0%, as the Most Accurate Estimate aligns with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting no recent differing analyst views [12]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, making it challenging to predict a definitive earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, NiSource was expected to earn $0.20 per share but reported $0.19, resulting in a -5.00% surprise [13]. - Over the past four quarters, NiSource has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times, indicating a generally favorable performance trend [14]. Conclusion - While NiSource does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, investors should consider other factors influencing stock performance ahead of the earnings release [17].

Company Overview - NiSource Inc. has a market capitalization of approximately $21 billion and provides natural gas and electric utility services across several U.S. states, serving around 2.9 million customers [1] - The company operates through its Columbia Operations and NIPSCO Operations segments, with a diverse portfolio that includes natural gas, coal, wind, hydro, and solar generation assets [1] Stock Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, NiSource's stock has increased by 17.9%, outperforming the S&P 500 Index, which gained 14.8% during the same period [2] - Year-to-date, NI stock has returned 5.5%, compared to a 1.3% rise in the S&P 500 Index [2] - NI stock has also outperformed the State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF, which saw an 11.8% increase over the past 52 weeks [3] Financial Performance - NiSource reported better-than-expected Q3 2025 revenue of $1.27 billion, but its stock fell by 2.1% on October 29 due to a miss in adjusted EPS, which was $0.19 compared to the consensus estimate [6] - The adjusted EPS declined from $0.20 in the prior-year quarter, and the market reacted cautiously to a significant $28 billion capital expenditure plan, representing a 45% increase over the previous plan [6] Future Outlook - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, analysts project NiSource's adjusted EPS to increase by 7.4% year-over-year to $1.88 [7] - The company's earnings surprise history is mixed, having surpassed consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing once [7] Analyst Ratings - Among 15 analysts covering NiSource stock, the consensus rating is a "Strong Buy," with 11 "Strong Buy" ratings and four "Holds" [8] - Wells Fargo analyst Shahriar Pourreza maintained an "Overweight" rating and raised the price target from $47 to $49, indicating a potential upside of 6.9% to the current price [9] - The highest price target of $50 suggests a potential upside of 13.7% [9]

Core Viewpoint - NiSource Inc. will release its full-year 2025 financial results on February 11, 2026, before U.S. financial markets open [1] Group 1 - The company will host a conference call on the same day at 11 a.m. EST to review the financial results and provide a general business update [1] - Interested parties can listen to the conference call live by visiting the NiSource website [1]

Core Viewpoint - NiSource Inc. has declared a quarterly common stock dividend of $0.30 per share, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [1] Company Overview - NiSource Inc. is one of the largest fully-regulated utility companies in the United States, serving approximately 3.3 million natural gas customers and 500,000 electric customers across six states [1]

Company Overview - NiSource Inc. is an Indiana-based regulated energy holding company providing natural gas distribution and electric utility services to nearly four million customers across several Midwestern and Eastern states with a market cap of $20.3 billion [1] Earnings Expectations - Analysts predict NiSource will report an adjusted EPS of $0.49 for Q4 2025, unchanged from the same quarter last year, and the company has exceeded Wall Street's earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing once [2] - For the full year, analysts anticipate NiSource to report an EPS of $1.88, representing a 7.4% increase from $1.75 in fiscal 2024, with an expected rise to $2.04 in fiscal 2026, reflecting an 8.5% year-over-year growth [3] Stock Performance - NI stock has surged 17.9% over the past year, trailing the S&P 500 Index's 18.6% gains but surpassing the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund's 14.1% gains during the same period [4] Equity Offering - On October 31, NiSource announced the launch of an at-the-market equity offering program allowing the company to sell up to $1.5 billion of its common stock through December 31, 2028, with shares issued at prevailing market prices [5] Analyst Ratings - Analysts' consensus on NI stock is highly bullish, with an overall "Strong Buy" rating; out of 15 analysts, 11 recommend a "Strong Buy" and four suggest a "Hold," with an average price target of $47.08 indicating a potential upside of 8.7% from current levels [6]