Group 1 - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, disclosed changes in its stock holdings for Q3 2025, including a reduction in its stake in steel manufacturer Nucor Corporation [1] - The company reduced its holdings in Nucor by approximately 210,000 shares, representing about 3% of its total position, with a monetary value of around $29 million [1] - Notably, Berkshire had only established its position in Nucor in Q1 and Q2 of 2025 [1] Group 2 - During the same reporting period, Berkshire also initiated a new position in Alphabet, the parent company of Google, while continuing to reduce its long-term holdings in Apple [1] - According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, the annualized quarter-over-quarter growth rate of the U.S. economy for Q3 2025 was 4.3%, indicating an acceleration compared to the previous quarter [1]

Core Insights - Nucor Corporation (NUE) reduced its holdings by approximately $29 million, representing 3.1% of its position [1][2] Group 1: Background - The reduction in holdings occurred after Nucor had just established its position in Q1 and Q2 of 2025, during a period when steel stocks were declining from their peak in 2021 [1][2] Group 2: Motivation - The decision to slightly reduce the position was influenced by the stock price not rebounding as expected, instead showing weakness, indicating Berkshire's flexible strategy of "quick in and out" with cyclical stocks [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - Nucor (NUE) has reached a significant support level and shows potential for investors from a technical perspective, with a recent break above the 20-day moving average indicating a short-term bullish trend [1]. Technical Analysis - The 20-day simple moving average (SMA) is a popular trading tool that reflects a stock's price over a 20-day period, smoothing out short-term price trends and providing trend reversal signals [2]. - A stock price above the 20-day SMA indicates a positive trend, while a price below suggests a downward trend [2]. Recent Performance - NUE has moved 6.9% higher over the last four weeks, indicating potential for another rally [4]. - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting a neutral outlook [4]. Earnings Estimates - Positive earnings estimate revisions support the bullish case for NUE, with no estimates decreasing in the past two months and five estimates increasing, leading to a rise in the consensus estimate [4]. Investment Consideration - Given the important technical indicator and positive earnings estimate revisions, NUE should be considered for the watchlist by investors [5].

Core Insights - The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed into law on July 4, will significantly impact markets starting in January, particularly benefiting cyclical sectors outside of tech and AI [1][2] - Société Générale's chief US equity strategist, Manish Kabra, has identified 30 stocks that are expected to benefit from the tax and regulatory breaks provided by the bill, focusing on financials, industrials, and consumer cyclicals [2] Beneficiary Sectors - Key sectors poised for growth include defense, small-caps, consumer, and energy, as they are expected to receive a boost from the new tax and regulatory policies [2] - The average forward price-to-earnings ratio for the identified stocks is 17x, with an expected earnings-per-share growth of 15% in 2026 and 2027 [3] Defense Beneficiaries - General Dynamics Corp (GD): Positioned for defense modernization funding [6] - L3Harris Technologies Inc (LHX): Benefits from investment in advanced systems [6] - Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC): Well-placed for missile defense and space programs [6] - Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII): Supported by naval modernization initiatives [6] Capex Incentive Beneficiaries - United Rentals Inc (URI): Set to gain from increased construction activity [6] - Jacobs Solutions Inc (J): Benefits from infrastructure upgrades and industrial investment incentives [6] - Trimble Inc (TRMB): Aligned with manufacturing investment push [6] - Caterpillar Inc (CAT): Benefits from accelerated depreciation and domestic production incentives [6] - Cummins Inc (CMI): Supported by R&D expensing and industrial investment [6] - Deere & Co (DE): Gains from capex incentives and domestic manufacturing support [6] - Nucor Corp (NUE): Benefits from industrial base expansion and construction demand [6] - Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX): Critical supplier for electrification and infrastructure projects [6] - Duke Energy Corp (DUK): Positioned for grid modernization under capex policies [7]

Core Insights - Nucor's stock has decreased by 1.78% to $157.83, underperforming the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.79% but has appreciated by 8.15% over the past month, slightly underperforming the Basic Materials sector's gain of 8.18% [1] Financial Performance Expectations - Nucor is set to announce its earnings on January 26, 2026, with analysts expecting earnings of $2.07 per share, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 69.67%. Revenue is projected at $7.79 billion, up 10.07% from the prior-year quarter [2] - For the full year, earnings are projected at $8.11 per share and revenue at $32.6 billion, indicating changes of -8.88% and +6.06% respectively from the previous year [3] Analyst Estimates and Market Sentiment - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Nucor are important as they often indicate changing near-term business trends, with positive revisions suggesting a favorable business outlook [3] - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has increased by 2.84% in the past month, and Nucor currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [5] Valuation Metrics - Nucor is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 19.82, which is higher than the industry average of 13.88, suggesting a premium valuation [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 1.24, compared to the Steel - Producers industry's average PEG ratio of 0.77, indicating a higher valuation relative to expected earnings growth [7] Industry Context - The Steel - Producers industry is part of the Basic Materials sector and currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 147, placing it in the bottom 41% of over 250 industries [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank measures the strength of industry groups, with the top 50% rated industries outperforming the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Core Viewpoint - Nucor Corporation is facing challenges in its fourth-quarter earnings guidance, which is below analyst expectations, but remains optimistic about recovery in 2026 due to improving order backlogs [2][4][6] Financial Performance - Nucor's projected earnings per share (EPS) for the fourth quarter is between $1.65 and $1.75, which is below the consensus estimate of $2.18 [2][6] - The company's current stock price is $160.69, reflecting a decrease of 0.97% or $1.57 [5] - Nucor's market capitalization is approximately $36.78 billion [5] Operational Segments - The anticipated decline in earnings is attributed to seasonal pressures and fewer shipping days, affecting all three operating segments: steel mills, steel products, and raw materials [3] - In the steel mills segment, earnings are expected to decrease due to lower volumes and margin compression, particularly in sheet products [3] - The steel products segment faces challenges with lower volumes and higher average costs per ton, although improved average pricing may provide some relief [3] Shareholder Actions - Nucor has continued its share repurchase program, buying back approximately 0.7 million shares in the fourth quarter at an average price of $145.23, bringing total repurchases for the year to about 5.4 million shares [4][6] Market Outlook - Despite current challenges, Nucor remains optimistic about a recovery in 2026, driven by improving order backlogs [4][6]

Core Insights - Nucor Corporation (NUE) has projected fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) for the period ending December 31, 2025, in the range of $1.65 to $1.75, indicating a decline from $2.63 in the third quarter of 2025 but an improvement over $1.22 in the fourth quarter of 2024 [1][7] Earnings Outlook - The anticipated decline in earnings is attributed to seasonal factors and fewer shipping days, with the steel mills segment expected to see moderated earnings due to lower shipment volumes and margin pressure, especially in sheet products [2][7] - The steel products segment is forecasted to experience reduced profitability due to lower volumes and higher average costs per ton, although this is partially offset by improved realized pricing [3] - The raw materials segment is expected to underperform due to two planned outages at Nucor's direct reduced iron facilities [3] Shareholder Returns - Despite the earnings decline, Nucor has prioritized shareholder returns, repurchasing approximately 0.7 million shares at an average price of about $145.23 during the quarter, totaling around 5.4 million shares repurchased year-to-date at an average cost of roughly $128.66 per share [4][7] - Including dividends, Nucor has returned about $1.2 billion to shareholders year-to-date in 2025 [4][7] Future Outlook - Management remains optimistic for 2026, citing significantly higher order backlogs compared to the previous year, particularly in construction-related end markets such as energy, infrastructure, data centers, and manufacturing [5] - The company anticipates a gradual improvement in market conditions, supported by favorable monetary, tax, and trade policies [5] - Nucor is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results after market close on January 26, 2026 [5] Stock Performance - Shares of NUE have increased by 27.3% over the past six months, compared to a 33.6% rise in the industry [6]

Core Viewpoint - Steelmakers Nucor and Steel Dynamics have indicated that their fourth-quarter earnings will significantly fall below Wall Street's expectations [1] Company Summary - Nucor and Steel Dynamics are both major players in the steel manufacturing industry [1] - The warning about earnings suggests potential challenges in the market environment affecting these companies [1] Industry Summary - The steel industry is facing pressures that may lead to lower-than-expected financial performance for key companies [1] - The earnings forecast indicates a broader trend that could impact investor sentiment and market dynamics within the steel sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nucor Corporation anticipates a decrease in fourth quarter earnings for 2025, projecting earnings per diluted share between $1.65 and $1.75, down from $2.63 in the third quarter of 2025 and $1.22 in the fourth quarter of 2024 [1][2] Fourth Quarter of 2025 Commentary - Earnings are expected to decline across all operating segments compared to the third quarter of 2025 due to seasonal effects and fewer shipping days [2] - The steel mills segment is projected to see lower earnings due to reduced volumes and margin compression, particularly in sheet products [2] - The steel products segment is expected to experience a decline in earnings driven by lower volumes and increased average costs per ton, although partially offset by higher average realized pricing [2] - The raw materials segment is anticipated to have lower earnings primarily due to two scheduled outages at DRI facilities [2] Capital Returns - Nucor repurchased approximately 0.7 million shares at an average price of $145.23 per share during the fourth quarter, totaling about 5.4 million shares year-to-date at an average price of $128.66 per share [3] - The company has returned approximately $1.2 billion to stockholders through share repurchases and dividend payments year-to-date [3] 2026 Outlook - Nucor is optimistic about 2026, citing significantly higher backlogs compared to the previous year, particularly in construction market segments such as energy, infrastructure, data centers, and manufacturing [4] - The company expects that favorable monetary, tax, and trade policies will contribute to gradual improvements in business conditions [4] Earnings Release and Conference Call - Nucor plans to release its fourth quarter earnings after market close on January 26, 2026, followed by a conference call on January 27, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time [5]

Core Insights - Nucor's stock has surged 15% since reporting strong third-quarter results, leading to a year-to-date return of 42.8%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 17% gain [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The steel sector is cyclical, with several catalysts potentially driving Nucor's stock higher [2] - A construction cycle is beginning to boost the steel sector, with high-growth markets like data center construction identified as ongoing catalysts for Nucor's business [4] - Significant capital investments in various sectors, including a $6 billion facility by Eli Lilly, are expected to drive demand for steel [5] Group 2: Capacity Expansion - Nucor is constructing a new steel mill in West Virginia, expected to ramp up production by the end of next year [8] - Nippon Steel plans to invest $4 billion in a new steel mill, adding approximately 3 million tons of annual domestic capacity [8] - The construction of new steel mills takes years, with Nippon's project site selection expected by early 2027 [9] Group 3: Pricing and Profitability - The dynamics of supply and demand will drive steel pricing, which could be impacted by the increase in domestic capacity [7] - An expanding economic and construction cycle is bullish for Nucor, which is one of the most efficient and profitable steel companies [10] - Lower steel pricing may negatively affect profitability for domestic mills, particularly Nippon's U.S. Steel, more than for Nucor [10]