Company Overview - On Holding (ONON) is a premium athleticwear brand known for its distinctive sole design, particularly the On Cloud shoe, targeting an affluent clientele while also resonating with a broader audience through athlete endorsements and partnerships [3][4]. Market Performance - On's stock has experienced a decline of 8% year to date despite a strong fourth-quarter earnings report, which saw revenue increase by 40% year over year, with direct-to-consumer sales rising by 49% [7][9]. Financial Results - The company reported a significant net income increase of 436% from a loss the previous year, with earnings per share (EPS) reaching $0.33, surpassing Wall Street's consensus of $0.18 [8]. Growth Opportunities - On is expanding its global footprint and brand awareness, with management guiding for a 27% sales increase in 2025, indicating strong growth potential as it continues to innovate and maintain operational excellence [10][12]. Product Performance - The company has seen impressive growth in various product categories, with shoe sales up 39%, apparel up 83%, and accessories up 86% year over year in the fourth quarter, suggesting strong customer affinity for the brand [11]. Competitive Position - On has the highest gross margin in the industry, increasing from 60.4% to 62.1% year over year, indicating strong pricing power and a resilient customer base that may be pulling market share from competitors [6][8].

Core Insights - The 200-day moving average is a crucial tool for investors to identify long-term trends, manage risk, and find high-probability buy areas [2][10] - The Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ) demonstrated the effectiveness of the 200-day moving average, trending below it for a year before regaining it in early 2023, leading to a near doubling of the index [3] Company Summaries - **On Holding (ONON)**: Recognized as an emerging leader in the running shoe market, ONON has shown consistent double-digit revenue growth, driven by its premium brand image, direct-to-consumer strategy, and global expansion. The company exceeded Zacks Consensus Estimates by 90% in the last quarter [4][6] - **Amazon (AMZN)**: A dominant player in the US e-commerce market, Amazon's logistics network remains unmatched. The company also leads in cloud services through AWS and is expanding into content and generative AI [6][7] - **MicroStrategy (MSTR)**: As the first public company to add Bitcoin to its balance sheet, MSTR serves as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy. The stock has shown significant volatility but has performed well when bought off the 200-day moving average, with notable price increases from ~$30 to $200 and then to over $500 within a year [7][9]

Company Overview - On is a Swiss-based athletic wear company competing in the premium space with a distinctive Cloud-tech footwear designed for comfort [2] - The brand is establishing a strong global presence and has received extremely positive reception, indicating strong customer loyalty [3] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, On's sales increased by 40% year over year, driven by a 48% increase in direct-to-consumer sales [3] - Shoe sales grew by 39%, while apparel and accessories saw even higher growth rates of 83% and 86% respectively [3] - The company achieved a gross margin of 62.1%, up from 60.4% the previous year, and net income increased by 435% in the quarter [4] Market Position and Growth Outlook - Management is guiding for a 27% sales increase in 2025, with an expected gross margin of 60.5% for the full year [4] - Despite a deceleration in growth due to inflationary pressures, On has significant opportunities for brand establishment and customer loyalty [5] - The stock, while previously expensive, is now considered more attractive at its current price, trading at a forward one-year P/E ratio of 32 [6] Investment Perspective - There is potential for On to achieve steady double-digit growth for several years, presenting a buying opportunity on the recent dip [7]

Core Insights - On Holding surpassed Wall Street's earnings and revenue expectations in Q4 2024, reporting adjusted EPS of 0.33 Swiss francs and revenue of 606.6 million Swiss francs [1][2] Financial Performance - Adjusted EPS for Q4 2024 was 0.33 Swiss francs, exceeding the estimate of 0.22 Swiss francs [2][3] - Revenue reached 606.6 million Swiss francs, a 35.7% increase from 447.1 million Swiss francs in Q4 2023, surpassing the estimate of 589.2 million Swiss francs [3][7] - Gross profit margin improved to 62.1%, up from 60.4% in Q4 2023 [3][6] - Net income was 89.5 million Swiss francs, a significant recovery from a loss of 26.8 million Swiss francs in Q4 2023 [3][7] Company Overview - On Holding, established in Zurich in 2010, is recognized for its innovative running shoes and high-performance sportswear, focusing on expanding its market reach through a diverse distribution network [4] - The company emphasizes innovation, frequently updating its product range with new technologies like LightSpray to differentiate itself in the competitive athletic wear market [5] Growth Segments - Direct-to-consumer sales surged by 43.4%, significantly contributing to the gross profit margin [6] - The wholesale segment also grew by 29.1%, indicating strong overall performance [7] - Apparel sales increased by 77.5% in Q4 2024, driven by successful product launches [7] Future Outlook - Management anticipates net sales growth of at least 27% in 2025, targeting 2.94 billion Swiss francs [8] - The company aims to maintain gross profit margins around 60.5% and an adjusted EBITDA margin between 17.0% and 17.5% [8] - On Holding plans to expand into emerging regions like Asia-Pacific, leveraging its brand development and consumer engagement strategies [9]

Company Performance - On Holding reported quarterly earnings of $0.38 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.20 per share, compared to a loss of $0.06 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 90% [1] - The company posted revenues of $691.25 million for the quarter ended December 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.59%, and showing an increase from year-ago revenues of $504.69 million [2] - Over the last four quarters, On Holding has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times and topped consensus revenue estimates three times [2] Future Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $0.23 on revenues of $736.5 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.12 on revenues of $3.3 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for On Holding is currently favorable, leading to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) for the stock, indicating expected outperformance in the near future [6] - The outlook for the Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, where On Holding operates, is currently in the top 26% of Zacks industries, suggesting a positive impact on stock performance [8] Market Comparison - On Holding shares have declined approximately 12.6% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's decline of -0.5% [3] - Genesco, another company in the same industry, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $3.31 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +27.8%, with revenues projected at $780.43 million, up 5.6% from the year-ago quarter [9][10]

Market Presence and Sales - As of December 31, 2024, the company's products are available at approximately 10,500 retail stores across direct markets[39] - For the year ended December 31, 2024, 63.9% of sales were to customers in the Americas, 24.9% in EMEA, and 11.2% in Asia-Pacific regions[54] - Net sales through the wholesale channel represented 59.3% of total net sales for the year ended December 31, 2024[69] - The footwear category accounted for a significant majority of sales, with over 85 styles offered in 2024[49] - The company has expanded rapidly since its inception in 2010, with 19 retail stores as of December 31, 2024, including 9 in the Americas, 8 in Europe, and 2 in Asia Pacific[82] Brand Management and Marketing - The company anticipates challenges in maintaining and enhancing its premium brand image as it expands into new markets and product categories[38] - The effectiveness of grassroots marketing efforts and partnerships with premium brand ambassadors is crucial for future growth and brand visibility[43] - The company relies on a multi-channel strategy to increase brand recognition and customer engagement without compromising premium customer experience[50] - The company’s marketing strategy, including social media, has been crucial for customer acquisition and brand awareness[58] Consumer Behavior and Economic Factors - The company faces risks related to changes in consumer preferences, which could adversely affect sales and profitability[49] - Economic downturns and changes in consumer confidence could materially harm sales and profitability[71] - Consumer purchases of discretionary items, including premium footwear, apparel, and accessories, tend to decline during recessionary periods, impacting sales and financial condition[72] - The company faces risks from a decline in consumer retail spending, which could adversely affect sales and financial condition[70] Operational Challenges and Costs - The company has encountered increased operational costs due to higher customs, payroll, and other expenses during its expansion efforts[54] - The company must manage risks associated with third-party distribution and expand its product offerings to enhance customer experience[50] - The company is vulnerable to increased costs associated with athlete sponsorships and the need to maintain effective partnerships[45] - The company faces risks related to global trade, including potential changes in tax laws and trade policies that could impact financial condition and share price[73] Supply Chain and Manufacturing - Approximately 90% of the company's footwear products were produced in Vietnam in 2024, highlighting reliance on specific countries for manufacturing[107] - The company relies on third-party suppliers for fabrics and subcomponents, increasing the risk of supply disruption and cost inflation[112] - Supply chain disruptions, including geopolitical conflicts and natural disasters, could negatively impact the company's ability to meet customer demand and affect financial results[96] - The company is planning to expand its e-commerce platform to new geographies, which may incur additional costs and operational challenges[85] Technology and Innovation - The company relies on technical innovation and high-quality products to remain competitive in the market[61] - The company emphasizes technological innovation, relying on proprietary technologies such as CloudTec, Speedboard, and LightSpray to maintain competitive advantage[130] - The company must continue to invest in research and development to meet consumer expectations for innovative and sustainable products[62] - The company has limited experience with its LightSpray technology, and any failure to successfully develop and scale this technology could harm business performance[88] Financial and Compliance Risks - The company plans to primarily finance growth through cash from operations but may need to raise additional capital, which could be challenging due to market volatility and rising interest rates[179] - The company is subject to examination of its tax returns by authorities in multiple jurisdictions, which could result in material additional tax liabilities[201] - The company may incur significant legal, accounting, and compliance costs if it loses its foreign private issuer status, which would require adherence to U.S. domestic reporting requirements[220] - The company is classified as a "controlled company" under NYSE corporate governance rules, allowing it to rely on certain exemptions that may provide less protection to Class A ordinary shareholders[221] Cybersecurity and Data Privacy - Cybersecurity incidents could adversely affect the confidentiality and integrity of the company's IT systems, impacting operations and relationships[153] - The company has experienced a significant increase in the frequency and sophistication of cybersecurity incidents, necessitating robust cybersecurity measures and continuous monitoring[156] - The company is subject to various laws and regulations regarding data privacy and security, which are increasingly rigorous and may lead to government enforcement actions or litigation[163] - The company acknowledges the critical importance of implementing appropriate data security measures, including encryption protocols and regular audits, to mitigate risks[155] Governance and Shareholder Structure - The dual class structure of the company's shares allows the extended founder team to control approximately 57.7% of total combined voting power as of December 31, 2024, limiting shareholder influence[217] - The extended founder team holds approximately 15.7% of the economic interest, while executive officers and directors collectively own about 19.7% of the economic interest and 59.8% of total combined voting power as of December 31, 2024[217] - The company has never declared or paid any cash dividends and does not intend to do so in the foreseeable future, meaning returns on investment will depend on share price appreciation[226] - Future proposals for dividends will be at the discretion of the board of directors, considering business prospects and financial performance, and are subject to Swiss law limitations[227]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of thorough research and understanding of businesses before making investment decisions [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Company Insights - The author has a long position in ONON and DECK, indicating a positive outlook on these companies [2] - The author does not own shares in NKE and has no plans to transact in the near future, suggesting a cautious approach towards this company [3] Group 2: Industry Insights - The article highlights the need for individual investors to conduct their own due diligence before making financial decisions [3][4] - It mentions that past performance is not indicative of future results, which is a critical consideration for investors in the industry [4]

Company Overview - On Holding (ONON) closed at $51.21, down 1.65% from the previous trading session, underperforming the S&P 500, which lost 0.43% [1] - The stock has decreased by 11.08% over the past month, contrasting with the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 5.51% and the S&P 500's gain of 2.6% [1] Upcoming Earnings - The earnings report for On Holding is anticipated on March 4, 2025, with an expected EPS of $0.20, representing a 433.33% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is projected to be $666.44 million, reflecting a 32.05% rise from the equivalent quarter last year [2] Analyst Estimates - Recent modifications to analyst estimates for On Holding indicate evolving short-term business trends, with positive revisions suggesting analysts' confidence in the company's performance [3] - The Zacks Rank system, which assesses estimate changes, currently ranks On Holding at 2 (Buy), with a 1.38% increase in the consensus EPS estimate over the past month [5] Valuation Metrics - On Holding has a Forward P/E ratio of 45.98, which is significantly higher than the industry's average Forward P/E of 15.01 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.79, compared to the Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry's average PEG ratio of 1.16 [7] Industry Context - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector and holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 67, placing it in the top 27% of over 250 industries [8] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Company Overview - On Holding AG (NYSE: ONON) went public on September 15th, 2021, with an opening price of $35.40 [1] Analyst Profile - Mr. Mavroudis is a professional portfolio manager with expertise in institutional and private portfolios, focusing on risk management and in-depth financial market analysis [2] - He has successfully navigated major crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, and has published three books on investments [2] - Mr. Mavroudis holds multiple degrees and certifications, including an MSc in Financial and Banking Management and is a certified portfolio manager [2]

Company Performance - On Holding (ONON) closed at $59.04, marking a +1.2% change from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.39% [1] - The stock has increased by 5.54% over the past month, which is below the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 8.29% but above the S&P 500's gain of 1.7% [1] Upcoming Earnings - The company is expected to report an EPS of $0.20, reflecting a significant increase of 433.33% from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is forecasted to be $666.44 million, indicating a growth of 32.05% compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year [2] Analyst Estimates - Recent changes to analyst estimates for On Holding are crucial as they reflect near-term business trends and analysts' confidence in the company's performance [3] - Positive revisions in estimates are correlated with stock price performance, suggesting potential upward movement [4] Zacks Rank and Valuation - On Holding currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), with the consensus EPS estimate moving 1.38% higher over the last 30 days [5] - The company has a Forward P/E ratio of 51.57, which is a premium compared to the industry average of 15.87 [6] - The PEG ratio for On Holding is 0.89, while the Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry has an average PEG ratio of 1.26 [6] Industry Overview - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector and holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 70, placing it in the top 28% of over 250 industries [7] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]