Core Insights - Bernstein conducted an extreme scenario stress test on Oracle, estimating a valuation floor of $137 per share, indicating a 15% downside from the current level of approximately $160, providing a clear margin of safety for investors [1] - In an optimistic scenario, if execution goes smoothly, the target price could rise to $313, highlighting a strong asymmetric risk-reward profile [1] Customer Concentration and Capital Expenditure Concerns - Bernstein addressed market concerns regarding customer concentration and capital expenditure, particularly related to AI clients like OpenAI, suggesting that fears are overvalued [1] - The report indicates that even if all AI contracts fail to convert into revenue, Oracle's core database, SaaS, and non-AI OCI businesses would continue to grow normally [1] Lease Liabilities Analysis - Bernstein analyzed Oracle's $248 billion lease liabilities, arguing that the risk of clients defaulting is significantly overstated [2] - The long-term nature of these leases (15 to 19 years) means that the maximum annual risk exposure is only $13 to $16.5 billion, peaking in FY2030 [2] - The global demand for data centers is expected to remain high, allowing Oracle to utilize or sublease any idle space [2] Hardware Capital Expenditure Risks - Bernstein noted that the actual exposure to hardware capital expenditure risks is limited, as Oracle can cancel or delay orders without incurring significant penalties [3] - Most computing assets are highly versatile and can be repurposed for traditional SaaS and OCI businesses, mitigating risks associated with client cancellations [3] Core Business Fundamentals - The report highlights Oracle's core business value, projecting total revenue of $101 billion by FY2030, even without AI-related income [4] - After accounting for interest costs from debt incurred for AI infrastructure, the estimated earnings per share (EPS) could still reach $9.00, suggesting a valuation of $137 per share based on industry peers' price-to-earnings ratios [4] Financial Projections - Oracle's total revenue is projected to grow from $50 billion in FY23 to $221 billion by FY30, with a notable increase in revenue from AI expected to reach $120 billion by FY30 [5] - The operating income is expected to grow from $13.2 billion in FY23 to $39.8 billion by FY30, indicating a strong upward trend in profitability [5] Valuation Comparisons - Oracle's projected EPS growth rate of 18.2% positions it favorably against peers like Microsoft and SAP, with a reasonable price-to-earnings ratio of 27.3x suggesting a stock price of $137 excluding AI revenue [6] - Bernstein believes that Oracle's current stock price reflects overly pessimistic expectations, presenting an attractive risk-reward ratio for investors [6]

Core Insights - Oracle Health has launched its Clinical AI Agent, Clinical Note, in the UK after a successful pilot program at several NHS Trusts [1] - The AI solution aims to reduce documentation time for caregivers, allowing them to focus more on patient interaction [1] Company Overview - Oracle Health's Clinical AI Agent is designed for use in both NHS and private practices [1] - The technology utilizes an ambient voice and screen-driven assistant to assist in drafting patient notes [1] Industry Impact - The introduction of the Clinical AI Agent is expected to significantly enhance efficiency in clinical documentation processes [1] - By minimizing administrative tasks, the AI solution aims to improve the overall quality of patient care [1]

Group 1 - The January non-farm payroll report showed an addition of 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 55,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%, slightly below the forecast of 4.4% [3] - Job growth was primarily concentrated in the healthcare sector, which added 124,000 jobs, double the normal growth rate for 2025 [3] - Despite the strong job growth, there are concerns about ongoing downward revisions in the labor market data, with the average monthly job addition for last year being only 15,000 after adjustments [3] Group 2 - Major technology stocks had mixed performances, with Nvidia up 0.80%, Apple up 0.67%, while Microsoft fell 2.15%, Google down 2.39%, and Amazon down 1.39% [3] - Among Chinese concept stocks, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.65%, with Alibaba down 1.32% and JD down 0.28%, while NIO rose 2.22% and XPeng up 1.63% [4]

Economic Data - The U.S. added 130,000 jobs in January, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 55,000 [1] - The unemployment rate stands at 4.3%, slightly below the economists' forecast of 4.4% [1] - Job growth is primarily concentrated in the healthcare sector, which added 124,000 jobs, double the normal growth rate for 2025 [1] - There is a persistent downward revision in the labor market data, with the average monthly job addition for last year adjusted to only 15,000 [1] Company News - Apple is reportedly facing setbacks in the development of an upgraded version of Siri, which may delay the release of several anticipated AI features [3] - Meta has begun construction on a new data center in Lebanon, Indiana, with an investment exceeding $10 billion, aimed at enhancing its AI infrastructure [5] - Google is integrating AI shopping features into its search engine and Gemini chatbot, allowing consumers to purchase products directly through AI-driven answers [7] - T-Mobile anticipates service revenue to reach approximately $77 billion by 2026, with plans to achieve 18 to 19 million broadband users by 2030 [8] - Ancora Capital has increased its stake in Warner Bros. Discovery and plans to oppose the company's deal with Netflix regarding its production and streaming assets [9] - Kraft Heinz has paused its planned spin-off, focusing instead on improving company performance under the new CEO Steve Cahillane [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Gross Law Firm has issued a notice to shareholders of Oracle Corporation regarding a class action lawsuit due to alleged misleading statements and financial risks associated with the company's AI infrastructure strategy [1][3]. Group 1: Allegations - The complaint alleges that during the class period from June 12, 2025, to December 16, 2025, Oracle's management made materially false and misleading statements [3]. - It is claimed that the company's AI infrastructure strategy would lead to significant increases in capital expenditures without corresponding near-term revenue growth [3]. - The increased spending is said to pose serious risks to Oracle's debt and credit rating, free cash flow, and ability to fund its projects [3]. Group 2: Class Action Details - Shareholders who purchased shares of Oracle during the specified class period are encouraged to register for the class action, with a deadline of April 6, 2026, to seek lead plaintiff status [4]. - Participants will be enrolled in a portfolio monitoring software to receive updates throughout the case lifecycle [4]. - There is no cost or obligation for shareholders to participate in this case [4]. Group 3: Law Firm Background - The Gross Law Firm is a nationally recognized class action law firm dedicated to protecting the rights of investors affected by deceit and illegal business practices [5]. - The firm aims to ensure companies engage in responsible business practices and seeks recovery for investors who suffered losses due to misleading statements [5].

Group 1 - Major tech stocks experienced a broad increase, with SanDisk rising over 8%, Oracle up 2%, and NVIDIA increasing by more than 1% [1][2] - Other notable gainers included Tesla, Broadcom, Apple, and Amazon, all showing positive movement [1] - The three major U.S. stock indices opened higher, with the Nasdaq up 0.77%, the Dow Jones up 0.41%, and the S&P 500 up 0.62% [3] Group 2 - Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with Kingsoft Cloud increasing by over 11%, Bilibili up more than 3%, and Century Internet and Beike both rising over 2% [2][4] - Storage-related stocks rebounded, with Micron Technology rising over 6% and Western Digital increasing by more than 4% [4]

Core Insights - Oracle has introduced new AI agents within its Fusion Cloud Applications to enhance supply chain efficiency and decision-making [1][2] - The company reported a 14% year-over-year revenue increase in Q2 fiscal 2026, with cloud revenues rising 34% [3][8] - Oracle maintains its full-year revenue guidance at $67 billion and anticipates third-quarter cloud revenue growth of 40-44% [4] Product Developments - New AI agents include a Planning Cycle Agent, Component Replacement Agent, and others focused on inventory, logistics, order management, and maintenance [2] - The AI agents are integrated at no additional cost for existing customers and are supported by a marketplace of over 32,000 certified AI agent experts [2][5] Financial Performance - Total revenues for Oracle reached $16.1 billion, with cloud revenues at $8.0 billion and SaaS revenues at $3.9 billion [3][8] - Non-GAAP earnings per share increased by 54% to $2.26, while Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) surged 438% to $523 billion [3] Competitive Landscape - Oracle faces competition from Google and Microsoft, both of which are integrating AI into their cloud applications [5] - Microsoft has launched autonomous AI agents across its Dynamics 365 suite, while Google is expanding its Vertex AI capabilities [5] Stock Performance and Valuation - Oracle's stock has decreased by 37.8% over the past six months, underperforming the sector [6] - The current Price/Earnings ratio for Oracle is 28.15x, above the industry average of 26.41x, indicating a premium valuation [12]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the US Internet and Software industry, specifically focusing on the cloud services sector, highlighting the performance of major cloud providers in Q4 2025. Core Insights and Arguments - **Overall Industry Growth**: The cloud industry experienced a growth acceleration of approximately 5 percentage points to +34.7% year-over-year (YoY), driven by increases at AWS, GCP, and OCI [1] - **Individual Provider Performance**: - **Microsoft Azure**: Growth decelerated by 1 percentage point to +38% YoY constant currency (CC), impacted by capacity constraints and prioritization of Copilot and R&D [2] - **Amazon AWS**: Growth accelerated to +24% YoY CC, up from 20% in Q3, with significant revenue contributions from Trainium and Graviton products [2] - **Google Cloud**: Growth surged to +48% YoY, a notable increase from +34% in Q3, with 75% of clients utilizing vertically optimized AI products [2] - **Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI)**: Growth accelerated by 12 percentage points to +66% YoY CC [1] Capital Expenditure (Capex) Insights - **Capex Growth**: Total capex for the cloud sector increased by over $11 billion quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), exceeding expectations. Specific capex figures include: - Microsoft: $35.1 billion in Q4, with expectations of a QoQ decline in F3Q but higher YoY growth for FY26 [3] - AWS: Approximately $27 billion in Q4, representing a +52% YoY increase [3] - Google Cloud: Approximately $14 billion in Q4, reflecting a +95% YoY increase [3] Booking and Revenue Backlog - **Bookings Growth**: Microsoft reported a remarkable 230% YoY growth in commercial bookings for 2QFY'26, driven by a $250 billion commitment from OpenAI [4] - **Revenue Backlogs**: - AWS backlog grew to $244 billion, a +38% YoY increase, bolstered by core AWS and AI demand [4] - Google Cloud backlog reached $240 billion, increasing by $147 billion YoY, attributed to rising AI demand and partnerships [4] Profitability Metrics - **Gross Margin and Operating Margin**: - Microsoft’s cloud gross margin was 67%, slightly better than guidance but down 3 percentage points YoY due to AI scaling [5] - AWS operating margin was 35%, exceeding expectations and higher than the previous quarter [5] - Google Cloud's operating margin improved significantly by 1,260 basis points YoY to 30.1% [5] Additional Noteworthy Points - The significant demand for AI infrastructure and solutions is a key driver of revenue growth across all major cloud providers, indicating a strong market trend towards AI integration [2] - The competitive landscape shows AWS maintaining a market share of 44%, with Azure at 30%, Google Cloud at 22%, and OCI at 5% [1] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the cloud services industry.

Lost Money on Oracle Corporation(ORCL)? Join Class Action Suit Seeking Recovery - Contact Levi & Korsinsky [Accessibility Statement] Skip NavigationNEW YORK, Feb. 11, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Levi & Korsinsky, LLP notifies investors in Oracle Corporation ("Oracle" or the "Company") (NYSE: ORCL) of a class action securities lawsuit.CLASS DEFINITION: The lawsuit seeks to recover losses on behalf of Oracle investors who were adversely affected by alleged securities fraud between June 12, 2025 and December 16, 2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oracle plans to raise up to $50 billion through debt and equity financing in 2026 to meet the cloud infrastructure demands of major clients like AMD, Meta, and Nvidia, despite investor concerns over rising debt levels [1][2] Group 1: Financing Plans - Oracle announced a large-scale financing plan to raise up to $50 billion in 2026 [1] - The financing aims to support cloud infrastructure needs for significant clients [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Oracle's stock price surged by 9.64% to $156.59 on February 9, 2026, following an upgrade in institutional ratings [2] - The stock continued to rise by 2.11% to $159.89 on February 10, 2026, resulting in a cumulative increase of 9.01% over the period [2] - Despite the recent gains, Oracle's stock has declined by 17.75% year-to-date, indicating market caution regarding long-term debt risks [2] Group 3: Trading Activity - Trading volume reached $6.477 billion on February 10, 2026, with a turnover rate of 1.39%, reflecting increased trading activity [2] - The stock exhibited a volatility range of 20.55% during the recent period [2]