Core Viewpoint - O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) is expected to report first-quarter 2025 results on April 23, with consensus estimates for EPS at $9.83 and revenues at $4.17 billion, indicating growth from the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance - The consensus estimate for ORLY's earnings has decreased by a penny in the past week, suggesting a 6.85% growth compared to the same quarter last year [2]. - The revenue estimate implies a year-over-year increase of 4.88%, with ORLY having beaten earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters, resulting in an average negative surprise of 0.48% [3]. Market Trends - U.S. new vehicle sales are projected to rise by 0.6% year-over-year to 3.79 million units in Q1 2025, which is expected to benefit O'Reilly due to increased demand for new vehicles [4]. - Comparable sales growth for O'Reilly is anticipated to be 1.8% in the first quarter of 2025 [4]. Revenue Outlook - O'Reilly has achieved record revenues for 32 consecutive years, driven by growth in the auto parts market, vehicle longevity, store expansion, and a strong distribution network. The company projects 2025 revenues between $17.4 billion and $17.7 billion, up from $16.71 billion in 2024 [5]. Inventory and Expenses - The company plans to increase inventory levels throughout the year to ensure product availability, aiming for a 5% growth in inventory per store for 2025 [6]. - Per-store SG&A expenses rose by 4.6% year-over-year in 2024, with expectations of a 2-2.5% increase in 2025 due to wage pressures and investments in hub stores and technology [6]. Margin Pressure - While a positive sales outlook for 2025 is likely to support ORLY's top-line growth, rising SG&A expenses may exert pressure on profit margins [7]. Earnings Prediction - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for ORLY, as it has an Earnings ESP of -0.78%, indicating that the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate [8][9].

Group 1 - O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) experienced a significant trading signal known as Power Inflow at a price of $1354.28, indicating a potential uptrend and entry point for traders [1][5] - The Power Inflow is a crucial indicator for traders, reflecting institutional activity and suggesting a bullish sentiment in the stock [1][3] - Following the Power Inflow, the stock reached a high price of $1392.96 and a close price of $1373.36, resulting in returns of 2.9% and 1.4% respectively [8] Group 2 - Order flow analytics, which includes the analysis of buy and sell orders, helps traders make informed decisions by interpreting market conditions and identifying trading opportunities [2][4] - The Power Inflow typically occurs within the first two hours of market opening and is used to gauge the stock's overall direction for the day [3]

Core Points - O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. will release its first quarter 2025 results on April 23, 2025, after 3:30 p.m. Central Time [1][2] - A conference call to discuss the financial results will take place on April 24, 2025, at 10:00 a.m. Central Time [2][4] Company Overview - O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. is a leading retailer in the automotive aftermarket industry, founded in 1957, and operates 6,378 stores across 48 U.S. states, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada as of December 31, 2024 [3]

Core Points - O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. will release its first quarter 2025 financial results on April 23, 2025, after 3:30 p.m. Central Time [1][2] - A conference call to discuss the financial results will take place on April 24, 2025, at 10:00 a.m. Central Time [2][4] Company Overview - O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. is a leading specialty retailer in the automotive aftermarket industry, founded in 1957 [3] - The company operates 6,378 stores across 48 U.S. states, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada as of December 31, 2024 [3]

Core Viewpoint - O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. announced a 15-for-1 stock split, subject to shareholder approval, aimed at making shares more accessible to team members and enhancing participation in the company's success [1][2][7]. Group 1: Stock Split Details - The stock split will be executed as a one-time special stock dividend, pending an amendment to increase the number of authorized shares [1][2]. - Shareholder approval for the amendment will be sought at the annual meeting on May 15, 2025 [2]. - If approved, shareholders of record as of June 2, 2025, will receive fourteen additional shares for each share held, with distribution occurring after market close on June 9, 2025 [4]. Group 2: Company Performance and Strategy - O'Reilly's CEO highlighted the company's strong financial performance since its IPO in April 1993, with a total share price increase of over 4,330%, averaging approximately 21% annually [3]. - The stock split aligns with the company's original goal of sharing success with team members, reinforcing the importance of the "Team O'Reilly" culture [3][4]. Group 3: Company Overview - O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. is a leading retailer in the automotive aftermarket industry, operating 6,378 stores across the U.S., Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada as of December 31, 2024 [5]. - The company serves both do-it-yourself customers and professional service providers, offering a wide range of automotive parts, tools, and accessories [5].

Core Viewpoint - O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. announced a 15-for-1 stock split, subject to shareholder approval, aimed at making shares more accessible to team members and enhancing participation in the company's success [1][2][4]. Group 1: Stock Split Details - The stock split will be executed as a one-time special stock dividend, pending an amendment to increase the number of authorized shares [1][2]. - Shareholder approval for the amendment will be sought at the annual meeting on May 15, 2025 [2]. - If approved, shareholders of record as of June 2, 2025, will receive fourteen additional shares for each share held, with distribution occurring after market close on June 9, 2025 [4]. Group 2: Company Performance and Strategy - O'Reilly's CEO highlighted the company's strong financial performance since its IPO in April 1993, with a total share price increase of over 4,330%, averaging approximately 21% annually [3]. - The stock split is intended to align with the company's original goal of sharing success with team members and enhancing their ability to acquire whole shares through the employee stock purchase program [3][4]. Group 3: Company Overview - O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. is a leading retailer in the automotive aftermarket industry, operating 6,378 stores across the U.S., Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada as of December 31, 2024 [5]. - The company serves both do-it-yourself customers and professional service providers, offering a wide range of automotive parts, tools, and accessories [5].

Core Viewpoint - O'Reilly Automotive reported mixed financial results for Q3 2024, with earnings and revenues missing consensus estimates, while showing year-over-year growth in net income and revenues [2][4]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q3 2024 were $11.41, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $11.53, but up from $10.72 in the prior-year quarter [2] - Quarterly revenues reached $4.36 billion, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.43 billion, but representing a 3.8% increase year over year [2] - Comparable store sales grew by 1.5% during the quarter [3] - Selling, general and administrative expenses rose by 7% year over year to $1.35 billion [4] - Operating income remained flat at $897 million year over year [4] - Net income increased to $665 million from $650 million in the year-ago quarter [4] Share Repurchase and Cash Flow - O'Reilly repurchased 0.5 million shares for $541 million at an average price of $1,084.28 per share during the quarter [5] - An additional 0.1 million shares were repurchased post-quarter for $70 million at an average price of $1,170.55 per share [5] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $115.6 million from $279.1 million at the end of 2023 [6] - Long-term debt was reduced to $5.36 billion from $5.57 billion as of December 31, 2023 [6] - Cash generated from operating activities was $772 million, down from $2.43 billion in the prior year [7] - Free cash flow was reported at $500 million, a decline of 69.8% year over year [7] 2024 Outlook - O'Reilly revised its 2024 revenue guidance to a range of $16.6-$16.8 billion, down from $16.6-$16.9 billion [8] - EPS guidance was adjusted to $40.60-$41.10, down from $40.75-$41.25 [8] - Comparable store sales growth outlook was revised to 2-3% from 2-4% [8] - Free cash flow guidance remained unchanged at $1.8-$2.1 billion [8] - Capital expenditure guidance remained at $900 million to $1 billion, with plans to open 190-200 stores this year [8] Estimate Trends - There has been a downward trend in estimates revisions for O'Reilly Automotive over the past month [9][11] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating an expectation of in-line returns in the coming months [11] VGM Scores - O'Reilly Automotive has an average Growth Score of C, a Momentum Score of D, and a Value Score of D, placing it in the bottom 40% for the value investment strategy [10]

Store Operations - As of December 31, 2024, the company operated 6,265 stores in the U.S. and Puerto Rico, 87 stores in Mexico, and 26 stores in Canada[167]. - The company opened 198 net new stores during the year ended December 31, 2024, and 186 in 2023, with an anticipated growth of 200 to 210 net new store openings in 2025[184]. - The company acquired Groupe Del Vasto in January 2024, adding 23 stores to its count[188]. Vehicle Statistics - The total number of registered vehicles in the U.S. increased by 14.2% from 2013 to 2023, reaching 284 million vehicles by the end of 2023[173]. - The average age of the U.S. vehicle population increased by 10.6%, from 11.3 years in 2013 to 12.5 years in 2023[173]. - The seasonally adjusted annual rate of light vehicle sales in the U.S. for the year ended December 31, 2024, was approximately 16.8 million vehicles[173]. - The number of total miles driven in the U.S. increased by 0.9% in 2022, 2.1% in 2023, and 1.0% year-to-date through November 2024[172]. Financial Performance - Sales for the year ended December 31, 2024, increased by $896 million, or 6%, to $16.71 billion from $15.81 billion for the same period in 2023[184]. - Comparable store sales for stores open at least one year increased by 2.9% for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to a 7.9% increase in 2023[184]. - Gross profit for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $8,554,489, compared to $8,104,803 in 2023[184]. - Operating income for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $3,251,157, an increase from $3,186,376 in 2023[184]. - Net income for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $2,386,680, compared to $2,346,581 in 2023[184]. - Earnings per share (basic) for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $40.91, up from $38.80 in 2023[184]. - Gross profit for the year ended December 31, 2024, increased 6% to $8.55 billion, representing 51.2% of sales, compared to $8.10 billion or 51.3% of sales in 2023[188]. - Operating income increased 2% to $3.25 billion, or 19.5% of sales, compared to $3.19 billion or 20.2% of sales in 2023[190]. - Net income for the year ended December 31, 2024, increased to $2.39 billion, or 14.3% of sales, from $2.35 billion or 14.8% of sales in 2023[193]. - Diluted earnings per share increased 6% to $40.66 on 59 million shares, up from $38.47 on 61 million shares in 2023[194]. Cash Flow and Debt - The company reported a free cash flow of $1,987,808 for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $1,987,720 in 2023[184]. - Free cash flow for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $1,99 billion, compared to $1.99 billion in 2023[206]. - Total cash provided by operating activities was $3.05 billion in 2024, slightly up from $3.03 billion in 2023[206]. - Total assets as of December 31, 2024, were $14,893,741, compared to $13,872,995 in 2023[184]. - Total debt as of December 31, 2024, was $5,520,932, a slight decrease from $5,570,125 in 2023[184]. - The company had outstanding fixed rate debt of $5.4 billion as of December 31, 2024, compared to $4.9 billion in 2023[230]. - The fair value of fixed rate debt was estimated at $5.2 billion as of December 31, 2024, up from $4.7 billion in 2023[230]. - The company had outstanding borrowings under its commercial paper program amounting to $200 million at a weighted-average variable interest rate of 4.750% as of December 31, 2024[229]. Cost Management and Economic Factors - The company has successfully managed inflationary cost pressures by leveraging supplier incentive programs and economies of scale, allowing it to pass on cost increases through higher selling prices[175]. - Macroeconomic factors such as inflation, fuel costs, and unemployment trends may impact consumer disposable income and, consequently, the company's business[170]. - Selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A) rose 8% to $5.30 billion, accounting for 31.7% of sales, up from $4.92 billion or 31.1% of sales in 2023[189]. - Total other expense increased 13% to $206 million, or 1.2% of sales, due to higher interest expenses[191]. Customer Engagement and Product Strategy - The company aims to gain market share in existing markets and expand into new markets by focusing on its dual market strategy and core values of hard work and customer service[176]. - The company offers a wide range of products differentiated by quality and price, with the highest sales and gross profit typically coming from the "best" quality category[168]. - The company has ongoing initiatives to educate customers on the benefits of vehicle maintenance and encourage them to purchase higher-quality products[168]. Currency Exposure - The net asset exposure in Mexican subsidiaries was $343.6 million as of December 31, 2024, with an 18.5% depreciation of the Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar from the previous year[233]. - The net asset exposure in Canadian subsidiaries was $162.8 million as of December 31, 2024, with a 7.9% depreciation of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar from the previous year[234]. Insurance and Reserves - The self-insurance reserve estimate increased by $54 million from 2023 to 2024, primarily due to inflation in claim development costs[226]. Financial Ratios - The consolidated fixed charge coverage ratio was 6.11 times for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to 6.42 times for 2023[217]. - The consolidated leverage ratio decreased to 1.89 times as of December 31, 2024, from 1.93 times in 2023[217].

Group 1: Company Overview - O'Reilly Automotive operates 6,378 stores primarily in the U.S., selling aftermarket auto parts to both DIY and professional customers [2] - The company has demonstrated steady demand for its products, which remains consistent regardless of economic cycles [3][4] Group 2: Financial Performance - O'Reilly has reported same-store sales (SSS) growth for 32 consecutive years, showcasing its strong fundamental performance [5] - Over the past decade, O'Reilly added 2,012 net new stores, contributing to a compound annual revenue growth of 8.8% without any down years [6] - The company maintains a gross margin of 51.3% and an operating margin near 20% of sales, indicating strong profitability [7] Group 3: Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns - In 2024, O'Reilly allocated $2.1 billion for share repurchases, reducing the outstanding diluted share count by 25% over the past five years, which benefits earnings per share [8] Group 4: Market Valuation and Investment Considerations - O'Reilly's stock currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.9, indicating a high valuation that reflects market optimism [10] - While the company has favorable traits and potential for growth, the elevated valuation suggests that investors may want to wait for a more attractive entry point before purchasing [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that O'Reilly Automotive (NASDAQ: ORLY) is considered expensive, maintaining a hold rating due to high valuation [1] - The investment strategy focuses on long-term investments while also incorporating short-term shorts to identify alpha opportunities [1] - The analysis emphasizes a bottom-up approach, assessing the fundamental strengths and weaknesses of individual companies [1] Group 2 - The investment duration is medium to long-term, aiming to identify companies with solid fundamentals, sustainable competitive advantages, and growth potential [1]