Core Insights - Phillips 66 (PSX) reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $2.47 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.11, and improved from an adjusted loss of 15 cents per share in the same quarter last year [1][10] - Total quarterly revenues reached $36.3 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $30.2 billion, and increased from $34 billion year-over-year [1][10] Segmental Performance - **Midstream**: Adjusted pre-tax quarterly earnings were $717 million, slightly up from $708 million in the prior year, driven by higher volumes [3] - **Chemicals**: Adjusted pre-tax earnings fell to $19 million from $72 million in the previous year, primarily due to weaker margins [4] - **Refining**: Adjusted pre-tax earnings improved to $542 million from a loss of $759 million in the year-ago quarter, attributed to higher realized refining margins and the acquisition of WRB Refining [5] - **Marketing & Specialties**: Adjusted pre-tax earnings increased to $439 million from $185 million in the prior year, benefiting from higher marketing fuel margins [7] - **Renewable Fuels**: The segment reported an adjusted pre-tax loss of $19 million, down from adjusted pre-tax earnings of $28 million in the previous year [8] Refining Margins - Realized refining margins worldwide rose to $12.48 per barrel from $6.08 in the year-ago quarter, with significant increases in various regions: Central Corridor ($13.06 from $6.68), Gulf Coast ($12.48 from $5.58), West Coast ($8.85 from $5.74), and Atlantic Basin/Europe ($12.60 from $6.09) [6] Financial Overview - Total costs and expenses decreased to $32.9 billion from $34 billion year-over-year, mainly due to lower purchased crude oil and products [11] - The company generated $2.75 billion in net cash from operations, up from $1.2 billion in the previous year, with capital expenditures totaling $682 million and dividends paid out amounting to $482 million [12] - As of December 31, 2025, cash and cash equivalents stood at $1.1 billion, with total debt at $19.7 billion, reflecting a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 39% [12]

Market Overview - Pre-market futures have shown a recovery from early lows, influenced by Q4 earnings reports and private-sector job numbers, with the Dow up by 142 points and the S&P 500 up by 10 points, while the Nasdaq is down by 66 points [1] Employment Data - Private-sector payrolls for January reported by ADP came in at +22K, significantly below expectations, and down from a revised +37K the previous month, marking the first back-to-back monthly job gains since April and May of the previous year [2] - Services employment accounted for most of the private-sector hires, with +21K in services compared to only +1K in goods-producing sectors; Healthcare Services led with +74K hires, followed by Financial Services with +14K and Construction with +9K, while Professional & Business Services lost -57K jobs [3] - ADP Chief Economist noted that hiring trends are following consumer demand rather than technology advancements, indicating a disconnect between stock market performance and private-sector job growth [4] Sector Insights - The job gains in the Construction sector may hint at increased labor demand due to data-center buildouts, although it is considered premature to draw definitive conclusions [5] - A new ADP methodology revealed a downward adjustment of -212K fewer hires for the private sector in 2025, reducing total expected hires from +771K in 2024 to +398K in 2025, which may provide a clearer picture of the labor market [6] Earnings Reports - Eli Lilly & Co. reported a +7.9% earnings surprise with earnings of $7.54 per share and revenues of $19.29 billion, driven by strong performance in diabetes and weight loss drugs [8] - AbbVie reported earnings of $2.71 per share, exceeding estimates of $2.66, while Novartis reported $2.03 per share, beating consensus by 4 cents; however, AbbVie shares fell by -3% despite the positive earnings [9] - Phillips 66 reported earnings of $2.47 per share, surpassing expectations of $2.11 and significantly improving from a loss of -$0.15 per share in the same quarter last year, with shares up by +1.3% in pre-market trading [10]

Core Viewpoint - The software industry is facing significant pressure due to fears that advancements in AI will render many software companies obsolete, leading to a sell-off in their stock prices [5][15]. Group 1: Software Industry Concerns - Nvidia's founder Jensen Huang argues that software is merely a tool and that the notion of the software industry being replaced by AI is illogical [3][4]. - Despite Huang's perspective, the market is skeptical, believing that companies like Salesforce and SAP have their terminal values at risk due to rapid AI advancements [5]. - JP Morgan has warned clients for three years about the potential impact of AI on software companies, suggesting that these firms need to evolve significantly [15][16]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Opportunities - The recent sell-off in software stocks has created potential buying opportunities for traders, as lower prices may lead to higher upside potential [8]. - Some traders are looking for signs of capitulation in the market, characterized by high volatility and selling pressure, as indicators for potential entry points [19][21]. - There is a belief that many software stocks, despite their declines, are not at immediate risk of going out of business [17]. Group 3: Consumer Market Insights - Chipotle's recent earnings report highlighted concerns about affordability, with suggestions that introducing a dollar menu could attract more customers [28]. - PepsiCo's CEO noted that lower-income consumers are being cautious with discretionary spending, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [30]. - The demand for high-protein and clean ingredients remains strong among consumers with higher incomes, which could influence future pricing strategies for companies like Chipotle [29]. Group 4: Oil Market Developments - Philip 66 reported strong earnings, driven by record performance in refining and mid-stream businesses, despite facing margin pressures [36][37]. - The company is optimistic about demand in the refining sector, particularly with the potential increase in Venezuelan crude supply, which could benefit their operations [40][45]. - The overall consumer economy appears stable, with gasoline and diesel demand holding up, suggesting a positive outlook for the oil market [51].

Market Overview - Pre-market futures have improved from early lows, influenced by Q4 earnings reports and private-sector job numbers, with the Dow up 142 points and the S&P 500 up 10 points, while the Nasdaq is down 66 points and the Russell 2000 is up 12 points [1] Private Sector Employment - Private-sector payrolls for January reported by ADP show an increase of only 22K, significantly below expectations, and down from a revised 37K the previous month, marking the first back-to-back monthly job gains since April and May of the previous year [2] - The services sector accounted for most of the job gains, adding 21K jobs, while goods-producing sectors only added 1K jobs. Healthcare Services led with 74K hires, followed by Financial Services with 14K and Construction with 9K. Professional & Business Services lost 57K jobs, and Manufacturing has not seen positive job growth since early 2024 [2][3] - A new ADP methodology indicates a downward revision of 212K fewer hires for the entire year of 2025, reducing total private-sector hires from 771K in 2024 to 398K in 2025 [4] Earnings Reports - Eli Lilly & Co. reported a 7.9% earnings surprise with earnings of $7.54 per share and revenues of $19.29 billion, also exceeding estimates by 7.9%, driven by strong performance in diabetes and weight loss drugs [6][7] - AbbVie reported earnings of $2.71 per share, beating estimates of $2.66, while Novartis reported $2.03 per share, surpassing consensus by 4 cents. Novartis shares rose 1.6%, while AbbVie shares fell 3% [7] - Phillips 66 reported earnings of $2.47 per share, exceeding expectations of $2.11 and significantly improving from a loss of $0.15 per share in the same quarter last year, with shares up 1.3% in pre-market trading [8]

Revenue and Income - Total revenues for 2025 YTD reached $136,560 million, a decrease of 4.6% compared to $145,496 million in 2024 YTD[1] - Net income attributable to Phillips 66 for 2025 YTD was $4,403 million, down from $2,117 million in 2024 YTD, reflecting a significant increase of 107.5%[5] - Basic earnings per share for 2025 YTD was $10.82, compared to $5.01 in 2024 YTD, indicating a growth of 116.3%[1] - Total adjusted net income attributable to Phillips 66 for 2025 was $2.632 billion, compared to $2.604 billion in 2024, reflecting a slight increase[8] - Income before income taxes for 2025 YTD reached $4,500 million, a significant increase from $1,011 million in 2024 YTD[45] Expenses and Costs - Operating expenses for 2025 YTD totaled $6,423 million, a slight increase from $5,939 million in 2024 YTD, representing a rise of 8.1%[1] - The company’s total costs and expenses for 2025 YTD were $131,140 million, a decrease of 8.2% from $142,821 million in 2024 YTD[1] - Selling, general and administrative expenses for 2025 amounted to $1.088 billion, a decrease from $1.434 billion in 2024, representing a reduction of approximately 24.1%[65] Taxation - The effective tax rate for 2025 YTD was 16.5%, compared to 18.7% in 2024 YTD, indicating a decrease in the tax burden[3] - The effective tax rate on taxable U.S.-based special items was approximately 24%[15] - Adjusted effective tax rate for 2025 was 22.9%, up from 20.5% in 2024, indicating an increase in the adjusted tax rate[67] Segment Performance - The refining segment reported a loss of $274 million for 2025 YTD, an improvement from a loss of $365 million in 2024 YTD[5] - Marketing and Specialties segment generated $4,500 million in income for 2025 YTD, a substantial increase from $1,011 million in 2024 YTD, reflecting a growth of 344.4%[5] - Adjusted EBITDA for the Midstream segment in 2025 reached $3.773 billion, up from $3.662 billion in 2024, indicating a growth of approximately 3%[11] - The refining segment reported an adjusted EBITDA of $2.338 billion for 2025, a significant increase from $966 million in 2024[11] - The Chemicals segment's adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $845 million, down from $1.348 billion in 2024, indicating a decline of approximately 37%[11] Cash Flow and Financing - Cash flows from operating activities for Q3 2025 were $187 million, with a year-to-date total of $2.752 billion[19] - The total net cash used in financing activities for Q3 2025 was $2.049 billion, reflecting significant debt repayments[19] - The company reported a cash and cash equivalents balance of $1.489 billion at the end of Q3 2025[20] - Total debt as of the end of 2025 was $19,716 million, a decrease from $21,755 million in 2024, indicating a reduction of approximately 9.5%[51] Asset Dispositions and Impairments - The company reported a net gain on dispositions of $2,984 million for 2025 YTD, compared to $321 million in 2024 YTD, showing a significant increase[1] - The company recorded a net gain on asset dispositions of $(68) million in Q1 2025, compared to a pre-tax impairment of $79 million in Q4 2025[29] - The total impairments recognized in 2025 reached $1.060 billion, with significant impacts in Q2 and Q3[19] - Special items included in income (loss) before income taxes totaled $1.841 billion for 2025, compared to a loss of $710 million in 2024, indicating significant fluctuations in special items[13] Production and Sales - Total refined products sales in the U.S. for Q1 2025 were 1,828 MB/D, up from 1,926 MB/D in Q1 2024, reflecting a 5% increase[45] - Total renewable fuels produced in Q1 2025 was 44 MB/D, a decrease from 63 MB/D in Q1 2024, showing a decline of 30%[48] - The worldwide total production, including proportional share of equity affiliates, was 1,871 MB/D year-to-date[43] Market Conditions - The Henry Hub natural gas price for Q1 2025 was $4.27 per MMBtu, significantly higher than $2.41 per MMBtu in Q1 2024, representing a 77.6% increase[26] - WTI crude oil price averaged $64.89 per barrel for the year-to-date, while Brent averaged $69.06[43] Legal and Regulatory Matters - The company reported a legal accrual of $605 million in Q3 2025, which was a notable increase from $262 million in Q2 2025[46] - The company incurred special items including a legal settlement of $(181) million and pending claims of $(123) million[58]

格隆汇2月4日｜炼油商菲利普斯66公布去年第四季度业绩，调整后每股收益为2.47美元，超过分析师平 均预期的2.16美元；销售额同比增长6.9%至363.33亿美元，亦超过分析师预期的320.61亿美元。期内， 炼油部门实现调整后净利润5.42亿美元，而去年同期为亏损7.59亿美元。 ...

格隆汇2月4日｜菲利普斯66(PSX.US)CEO：我们不具备上游业务能力，因此我们不会进入委内瑞拉参 与相关开发。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Phillips 66 exceeded Wall Street profit estimates for the fourth quarter, driven by a recovery in U.S. refining margins after a prolonged downturn in 2024 [1] Group 1 - The company reported a significant rebound in refining margins, which positively impacted earnings [1] - The earnings growth comes after a period of slump in the refining sector, indicating a potential recovery trend [1]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Gulf Coast oil refiners are facing challenges in absorbing a surge of Venezuelan crude shipments following a $2 billion supply deal between Caracas and Washington, leading to price pressures and unsold volumes [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Soft U.S. demand poses an early challenge for the U.S. administration's plans to increase Venezuelan oil imports, especially after the capture of President Nicolas Maduro [2]. - Venezuelan oil exports to the U.S. nearly tripled to 284,000 barrels per day (bpd) last month, but refiners are struggling to find buyers due to high prices compared to Canadian heavy grades [5][4]. - Before sanctions in 2019, the U.S. was importing around 500,000 bpd of Venezuelan oil, but exports dropped to zero by mid-2025 [6]. Group 2: Refiners' Capacity and Pricing - Phillips 66 can process approximately 250,000 bpd of Venezuelan crude, but competitive pricing is essential for these grades to replace other heavy oil sources [7]. - Venezuelan heavy oil is currently offered at about $9.50 per barrel below benchmark Brent, while Canadian WCS crude is trading at a discount of about $10.25 per barrel under Brent [4][5]. Group 3: Export and Trading Developments - Chevron increased its Venezuelan oil exports to 220,000 bpd in January from 99,000 bpd in December, but must manage storage or marketing for excess production [8]. - Vitol and Trafigura exported around 12 million barrels (approximately 392,000 bpd) from Venezuelan ports in January, primarily to Caribbean storage terminals, with much of it still unsold [10][11]. - Total Venezuelan oil exports rose to nearly 800,000 bpd last month, up from 498,000 bpd in December, with the U.S. now controlling Venezuela's oil sales following Maduro's capture [11]. Group 4: International Trade Relations - The U.S. has allowed China to purchase Venezuelan oil under conditions that prevent "unfair, undercut" pricing, but China has halted purchases while assessing the situation [12]. - A potential new market for Venezuelan oil could emerge from India, as a recent trade deal may lead to increased imports of Venezuelan oil [13].

U.S. refiner Phillips 66 can process around 250,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude, CEO Mark Lashier said at a conference in Houston on Tuesday. ...