Qualcomm says UK lawsuit over smartphone chip royalties will be withdrawn | ReutersSkip to main content[Exclusive news, data and analytics for financial market professionalsLearn more aboutRefinitiv]A Qualcomm logo and a computer motherboard appear in this illustration taken August 25, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo [Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab]- Companies[Apple Inc]Follow[Qualcomm Inc]Follow[Samsung Electronics Co Ltd]FollowLONDON, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Qualcomm [(QCOM.O), opens ...

自2026年初以来，特斯拉、苹果等十余家大型企业已发出信号，称动态随机存取内存（DRAM）的短缺 将限制生产。苹果CEO库克警告，这将压缩iPhone的利润率；美光科技称这一瓶颈"前所未见"；特斯拉 CEO马斯克则直指问题的棘手本质，表示特斯拉将不得不自建内存制造厂。马斯克在1月底说："我们只 有两个选择：撞上芯片墙，或者建一座晶圆厂。" 造成上述局面的根本原因是AI数据中心的扩张。Alphabet、OpenAI等公司正大量消耗内存芯片产能，它 们正通过购买数百万片英伟达AI加速器（每片都配备大量内存）来运行聊天机器人及其他应用。这导 致消费电子厂商只能争夺三星、美光等供应商日益减少的芯片供应。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 芯片行业有大变化？ 据彭博社消息，包括马斯克和库克在内的科技行业领袖，正不断警告一场全球危机正在酝酿：内存芯片 短缺开始冲击企业利润、打乱公司计划，并推高从笔记本电脑、智能手机到汽车及数据中心等各类产品 的价格。 据报道，人工智能热潮正引发存储芯片抢购热潮。从去年12月到今年1月份，某一类型DRAM的价格暴 涨了75%。越来越多零售商和中间商， ...

Core Insights - Qualcomm reported record Q1 revenue of $12.3 billion but experienced an 18% decline in stock price year-to-date due to weak guidance and memory chip shortages impacting smartphone production [1] - The company's Q2 revenue guidance of $10.2 billion to $11 billion fell short of Wall Street expectations, primarily due to supply constraints affecting Chinese OEMs [1] - Despite the negative sentiment, analysts maintain a "Buy" rating with an average price target of $168.53, indicating a potential upside of nearly 20% [1] Financial Performance - Qualcomm's Q1 revenue reached a record $12.3 billion, with the automotive segment generating $1.10 billion, reflecting a 15% year-over-year increase [1] - The company's Q2 guidance of $10.2 billion to $11 billion is significantly below expectations, attributed to ongoing memory chip shortages [1] Market Sentiment - Retail investor sentiment on platforms like Reddit has shifted from bullish to bearish, with sentiment scores dropping from 65 pre-earnings to a range of 20 to 36 post-earnings [1] - Concerns among retail traders include falling earnings per share, weak Q2 guidance, and memory chip shortages diverting supply to AI data centers [1] Technical Indicators - Qualcomm's stock hit an RSI of 21 in early February, indicating it is deeply oversold, with a slight recovery to 33 since then [1] - The stock's struggles are viewed as company-specific, contrasting with the performance of peers like Nvidia, which is down only 2% year-to-date [1] Future Outlook - Investors are advised to monitor trends in memory supply and Chinese smartphone demand, as easing constraints could lead to a recovery driven by Qualcomm's automotive and IoT growth [1]

Economic Indicators - The latest CPI data from the US shows a decrease in the annual rate from 2.7% to 2.4%, the lowest since May 2025, with market expectations at 2.5% [1] - The core CPI annual rate fell from 2.6% to 2.5%, marking the lowest level since March 2021, aligning with market expectations [1] - Following the CPI release, the probability of the Federal Reserve easing policies in June increased from 63% to 69%, with a 50% chance of a third rate cut this year [1] Stock Market Performance - The three major US stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.1%, S&P 500 up 0.05%, and Nasdaq down 0.22% [2] - Over the week, the Dow Jones fell by 1.23%, S&P 500 by 1.39%, and Nasdaq by 2.1% [2] Individual Stock Movements - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Apple and Nvidia down over 2%, while Tesla saw a slight increase of 0.09% [4] - Semiconductor stocks performed well, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising by 0.66%, driven by significant gains in Applied Materials and ARM [4] - Gold stocks showed strong performance, with several companies like Coeur Mining and Harmony Gold seeing increases of over 6% [4] Commodity Prices - Gold and silver prices surged, with gold closing at $5042.808 per ounce, up over 2.4%, and silver reaching $77.338 per ounce after a rise of over 5% [6] Geopolitical Developments - The US is increasing military presence in the Middle East, with President Trump confirming the deployment of a second aircraft carrier strike group to pressure Iran into negotiations [8] - Trump emphasized the need for a deal with Iran within a month, warning of severe consequences if negotiations fail [9] - Israeli officials expressed skepticism about the potential agreement, stressing the importance of including issues related to Iran's nuclear capabilities and missile programs [9]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is expected to recover in 2025, with significant revenue growth driven by rising storage prices and increasing demand from data centers, leading to improved performance for major chip manufacturers [3][4]. Group 1: Semiconductor Sales and Growth - Global semiconductor sales are projected to reach $791.7 billion in 2025, a 25.6% increase from $630.5 billion in 2024, with further growth expected towards $1 trillion in 2026 [3]. - The recovery is attributed to strong demand from emerging technologies such as AI, IoT, 6G, and autonomous driving [3]. Group 2: Chip Design and IDM - Texas Instruments (TI) is expected to achieve approximately $17.68 billion in revenue for 2025, reflecting a 13% year-over-year growth, with significant contributions from industrial and automotive sectors [6]. - STMicroelectronics (ST) anticipates a revenue decline of 11% to around $11.8 billion, with Q4 showing slight improvement driven by personal electronics [8]. - NXP's revenue is projected at $12.27 billion, down 3%, with automotive and industrial sectors remaining stable [10]. - Renesas reported a revenue drop of 2% to 1.3212 trillion yen, marking its first loss in six years due to significant impairment losses [12]. - Microchip Technology expects growth in both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter sales, with a projected revenue of $1.186 billion for Q3 2026 [12]. - Qorvo's revenue exceeded expectations at $993 million, with an 8.4% year-over-year increase [12]. - Infineon's revenue is projected at €14.662 billion, down 2%, but with strong demand in AI driving growth [14]. Group 3: Memory Chips - Samsung's revenue is expected to reach 333.6059 trillion won (approximately $233.8 billion), a 10.9% increase, with the semiconductor division achieving 130.1 trillion won in revenue [29]. - SK Hynix anticipates a record revenue of 97.15 trillion won (approximately $681.6 billion), a 47% increase year-over-year [31]. - Micron's revenue is projected to rise from $25.11 billion to $37.38 billion, with HBM chip capacity sold out for 2026 [33]. - GigaDevice expects a revenue increase of approximately 25% to 9.203 billion yuan [35]. Group 4: Wafer Foundry - TSMC's revenue is projected to reach approximately 3.8 trillion new Taiwan dollars (around $122.42 billion), a 31.6% increase, with advanced processes contributing significantly [47]. - UMC expects a slight revenue increase of 2.3% to 237.55 billion new Taiwan dollars, with a focus on mature process technologies [49]. - SMIC anticipates a record revenue of $9.3268 billion, a 16.2% increase, with improved profitability driven by increased wafer sales [51]. Group 5: Testing and Packaging - ASE Group's revenue is expected to reach 645.388 billion new Taiwan dollars, an 8.4% increase, with advanced packaging services contributing significantly [57]. - Amkor's revenue is projected at $6.71 billion, a 6% increase, with strong performance in advanced packaging and computing business [59]. Group 6: Equipment - ASML's total net sales are expected to reach €32.667 billion, a 15.6% increase, with a record order backlog reflecting strong demand for AI-related technologies [61]. - Lam Research anticipates a record year with significant growth driven by advanced process technologies [63]. Group 7: Distribution - WPG Holdings expects a revenue of 999.12 billion new Taiwan dollars, a 13.4% increase, driven by AI and high-performance computing demand [66]. - WPG's revenue is projected to exceed 1 trillion new Taiwan dollars, marking a significant milestone [68].

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 得益于台积电全新的"小外形集成电路"（SoIC）封装技术， M5 Pro 和 M5 Max 有望成为苹果首批采 用独立 CPU 和 GPU 模块的SoC ，从而为苹果便携式 Mac 电脑带来更多可能性。从提高良率降低制 造成本到获得全新性能水平，这些都是企业转向芯片组设计后能够获得的诸多优势。但如果真是如 此，为什么高通至今仍未采用这项技术呢？我们在下文中探讨了一些可能性，但我们也认为，高通最 终必然会完成这一转型。 如果像骁龙 X2 Elite Extreme 这样的芯片组成为常规做法，高通最终将不得不转向小芯片设计。 随着芯片的复杂性和物理尺寸不断增加，像苹果这样的公司正在转向芯片组（chiplet）设计以更好地 适应这些变化。AMD 已经采用这种架构好几代了，英特尔的 Panther Lake 系列 也实现了类似的功 能。然而，高通的骁龙 X2 Elite Extreme 和骁龙 X2 Elite却没有采用这种架构，这可能有几个原因。 如果这家科技巨头的 M5 Pro 和 M5 Max 采用了芯片组设计，那就意味着该公司已经解决了散热问 题。A19 Pro ...

Core Viewpoint - Qualcomm reported its Q1 FY2026 earnings, meeting expectations but facing margin pressure, while accelerating its AI chip initiatives and completing several acquisitions to enhance edge AI capabilities [1] Financial Performance - Qualcomm's Q1 FY2026 revenue was $12.25 billion, a 5% year-over-year increase, aligning with market expectations, but gross margin was 54.6%, down 1.2 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to storage shortages [2] - Mobile business revenue reached $7.8 billion, growing 3.3% year-over-year, but the growth rate has slowed; automotive and IoT segments grew by 14.6% and 9%, respectively [2] - The company provided Q2 FY2026 revenue guidance of $10.2 to $11 billion, below the market expectation of $11.2 billion, and Non-GAAP EPS guidance of $2.45 to $2.65, also below expectations, indicating potential ongoing pressure from storage shortages [2] Business Developments - Qualcomm is accelerating its AI strategy, planning to begin mass production of the AI200 chip in 2026, and has partnered with Saudi AI startup Humain to deploy 200 MW of computing power, which is expected to create potential revenue opportunities [3] - The company is focusing on the AI PC and data center markets, launching the Snapdragon X2 series PC platform to explore new growth avenues [3] Project Progress - In 2025, Qualcomm completed several acquisitions, including the integration of Alphawave and the acquisition of Arduino, aimed at enhancing its edge AI hardware and software stack, thereby improving competitiveness in smart automotive and IoT sectors [4] Fundamental Issues - The storage shortage issue has escalated from "price increase" to "out of stock," which may directly limit mobile business shipment volumes; the company anticipates a year-over-year decline of approximately 13% in mobile revenue for the next quarter, posing a key challenge for the upcoming quarters [5] Institutional Views - Morgan Stanley reinstated a "reduce" rating on Qualcomm on February 10, 2026, with a target price of $132, reflecting market concerns regarding short-term performance [6]

Shares of Qualcomm (QCOM) have struggled so far this year, with the stock down more than 18% year-to-date (YTD) and nearly 32% below its 52-week high. Despite the significant pullback, unfavorable industry dynamics around memory supply could weigh on QCOM’s earnings. With sentiment already negative, the possibility of the stock revisiting its two-year low of $120.80 cannot be ruled out. Qualcomm’s Q1 Surpasses Street’s Forecast Qualcomm delivered better-than-expected Q1 financial numbers. Revenue of $12 ...

Investment Rating - The semiconductor industry is rated as "stable improvement" for the next 12 to 18 months, with potential for upward adjustments based on demand growth from automotive electronics and artificial intelligence [5][7]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry in China is expected to benefit from effective industrial support policies, accelerating domestic substitution processes, and a stable upward trend in credit quality [5][8]. - The competition in the semiconductor industry remains a key national focus, with ongoing support for high-end breakthroughs and supply chain management [7][9]. - The recovery of the semiconductor industry is driven by the mild recovery in consumer electronics and rapid development in automotive electronics and artificial intelligence [19][24]. - The global semiconductor sales reached approximately $697.18 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11.22%, indicating a new recovery cycle after a previous downturn [20][24]. - The domestic semiconductor market in China is projected to reach $210.88 billion in 2025, growing by 14.68% year-on-year, driven by AI and automotive electronics [24]. Industry Fundamentals Analysis - The semiconductor industry is supported by a comprehensive policy framework that includes national and local government initiatives aimed at enhancing self-sufficiency and technological breakthroughs [9][10]. - The production of integrated circuits in China reached 484.3 billion units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 87.28%, with exports also showing significant growth [11][24]. - The industry is characterized by a high degree of concentration, with the top ten chip design companies holding over 65% of the market share globally, predominantly led by U.S. firms [30][31]. Credit Performance of Industry Enterprises - The overall financial performance of the semiconductor industry has improved, with revenue, profit, and operating cash flow showing growth, while debt levels remain manageable [29]. - The industry has not experienced any bond extensions or defaults, indicating a stable credit environment [29]. - The chip design sector has seen rapid growth, particularly in AI chip manufacturers, which have outperformed other segments [31].

Core Viewpoint - Qualcomm reported its Q1 FY2026 earnings with revenue of $12.25 billion, a 5% year-over-year increase, meeting expectations, but gross margin declined by 1.2 percentage points to 54.6% [1] Recent Events - The company expects Q2 revenue to be between $10.2 billion and $11 billion, below market expectations, with the mobile business potentially facing a double-digit decline. Ongoing storage shortages continue to impact hardware shipment volumes and gross margins [2] Business Progress - Qualcomm is diversifying through data centers and the automotive market to reduce reliance on its mobile business. AI chips are expected to begin mass production in 2026, and the company is collaborating with a Saudi AI startup to deploy computing power. The AI PC platform is partnering with Microsoft and Dell to challenge the x86 monopoly, although its market share remains low in the short term [3]