Core Insights - Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT) is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on March 3, with a strong earnings surprise history, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, averaging a 160% earnings surprise [2] Revenue Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RIOT's revenue in Q4 2025 is $157.4 million, reflecting a 10.1% increase from the previous year, driven by growth in Bitcoin Mining and Engineering revenues [3] - Bitcoin Mining revenues are projected at $136 million, indicating a 7.6% year-over-year growth, while Engineering revenues are expected to reach $21.3 million, representing an 85% increase from the prior year [3] Strategic Developments - The company has been actively developing its data center business for bitcoin mining, including the acquisition of 67 acres adjacent to its Corsicana site to create a 1 GW utility-load data center campus, which is anticipated to enhance technical engagement with major customers [4] - Recent growth in the engineering business, particularly through ESS Metron and E4A Solutions, is expected to create synergies and expand the data center development program, contributing positively to revenue [5] Earnings Outlook - The consensus estimate for loss per share is 22 cents, a decline from a profit of 44 cents reported in the same quarter last year, reflecting the impact of the company's transformation efforts and acquisitions [6] - The company has announced the development of two new buildings at its Corsicana campus, adding 112 megawatts of critical IT data center capacity, which is expected to enhance future capabilities [7] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for RIOT, with an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), indicating that while the potential for an earnings beat exists, it is not strongly supported by the current data [8]

Riot Platforms ( RIOT ) has been one of the Bitcoin ( BTC-USD) miners I have followed closely but kept at arm's length for much of the past market cycle. I have only covered RiotI started out as a crypto investor a decade ago and remain deeply active in the crypto space. I cover Bitcoin miners, digital asset treasuries, and crypto ETFs majorly, but I also seek alpha in tech equities, especially in emerging sectors like quantum computing and orbital intelligence. I have initiated coverage as a first analyst ...

Core Insights - The demand for AI computing has led to a surge in data center construction and development, with companies pivoting from cryptocurrency mining to AI data centers [1][2] Company Overview - Applied Digital and Riot Platforms are both transitioning to AI data centers, having initially focused on high-performance computing for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency mining [2] - Applied Digital has seen significant growth, with its stock price increasing by approximately 260% over the past year, while Riot Platforms has been affected by Bitcoin price volatility [3] Financial Performance - Applied Digital reported a 250% year-over-year revenue growth and reduced its net loss by 76% in the most recent quarter, driven by long-term contracts with hyperscalers [6] - Riot Platforms generated a record $180 million in revenue and achieved $104 million in net income, a significant turnaround from a $154 million net loss a year ago [10] Market Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about both companies, with 100% of analysts rating them as a buy. Applied Digital has a median price target of $43.50 per share, indicating a 33% upside, while Riot Platforms has a median price target of $28 per share, suggesting a potential 95% growth [5] - Applied Digital has secured $16 billion in long-term lease agreements and aims for $1 billion in net operating income within five years [9] Strategic Developments - Applied Digital is expanding its operations with new facilities, including Polaris 3 and Delta Forge 1, both set to open in 2027 [7] - Riot Platforms is diversifying its revenue by converting existing crypto mining facilities into data centers and has signed a 10-year lease agreement with AMD, potentially generating up to $1 billion in revenue [13][14]

Core Insights - Riot Platforms, Inc. is expected to report a quarterly loss of $0.22 per share with projected revenue of $158 million, making this earnings release significant for investors [1][6] - Despite the anticipated revenue increase, there is a consensus of a year-over-year decline in earnings, which will impact the stock's short-term price movement [2][6] Financial Ratios - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is approximately 34.33, indicating high investor expectations for future growth [3][6] - The price-to-sales ratio stands at about 9.46, reflecting the market's valuation of its revenue [3][6] - The enterprise value to sales ratio is around 10.31, while the enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio is negative at approximately -11.62, indicating potential challenges in cash flow generation [4][6] Debt and Liquidity - Riot's debt-to-equity ratio is approximately 0.25, suggesting a relatively low level of debt compared to equity, indicating less reliance on debt financing [5][6] - The current ratio is about 1.47, showing the company's ability to cover its short-term liabilities with its short-term assets, providing a mixed picture of financial health [5][6]

Core Insights - Riot Platforms, Inc. is a leader in the Bitcoin-driven industry focused on developing large-scale data centers and bitcoin mining applications, with an earnings conference call scheduled for March 2, 2026 [1][4] Company Overview - Riot's vision is to be the most trusted platform for powering and building digital infrastructure, aiming to positively impact various sectors, networks, and communities [3] - The company operates Bitcoin mining facilities in central Texas and Kentucky, with engineering and fabrication capabilities located in Denver and Houston [4] - Riot is expanding into data center development, reinforcing its role as a foundational builder in the digital economy [4]

Core Viewpoint - Riot Platforms' stock experienced a nearly 6% increase, driven by actions from activist investor Starboard Value rather than Bitcoin price movements [1] Group 1: Shareholder Actions - Activist investor Starboard Value communicated with Riot's CEO and chairman, urging them to intensify their transformation strategy [2] - Starboard highlighted that Riot's share price has underperformed compared to other crypto miners transitioning into AI and high-performance computing (HPC) [3][4] Group 2: Company Strategy and Potential - Riot is attempting to leverage its existing assets to enhance its AI and HPC hosting services, indicating a strategic shift [3] - Starboard believes Riot is well-positioned for high-quality deals and emphasizes the need for urgency in completing these deals [4] - The potential for successful diversification into AI and HPC could provide significant opportunities for Riot [5]

An activist investor said Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms needs a "renewed sense of urgency" in order to capitalize on the major AI opportunity. https://t.co/M8EyHY0OXV ...

Group 1 - Riot Platforms (RIOT.US) shares rose over 5%, reaching $15.4 [1] - Activist investor Starboard Value is urging Riot Platforms to accelerate its transition to artificial intelligence data centers [1] - The company is positioned favorably to capitalize on the growing demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure [1]

Core Viewpoint - Activist investor Starboard Value suggests that Riot Platforms can significantly increase its share value by transitioning its focus from bitcoin mining to AI and high-performance computing (HPC), estimating a potential share price between $23.55 and $52.60 [1] Group 1: Performance Comparison - Riot Platforms has underperformed compared to AI/HPC peers such as TeraWulf, Core Scientific, Hut 8, and Cipher Mining since January 2024 [2] - Immediate execution on large-scale data center deals is deemed necessary to close the valuation gap with peers [2] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The January 16 deal with AMD is highlighted as a proof of concept, involving an initial 25 MW of critical IT load expandable to 200 MW, projected to generate $311 million in revenue over ten years with an estimated 80% EBITDA margin [3] - The retrofit cost for this deal is noted to be $3.6 million per MW [3] Group 3: Financial Projections - Annual EBITDA from AI/HPC operations could reach approximately $1.627 billion if Riot successfully manages all 1.7 GW of power in the AI/HPC market [4] - A price target range of $23.55 to $53 is derived using a 12.5x to 20.0x EBITDA multiple, adjusted for $1.005 billion in net cash, excluding potential value from bitcoin mining operations and other assets [4] Group 4: Operational Improvements - Recent operational improvements include an increase in mining uptime to 86% in Q3 2025 and the settlement of a lawsuit with Rhodium to free up 125 MW of capacity [5] - Stock-based compensation is expected to decrease significantly over the next two years, which is crucial for transitioning to a "best-in-class" data center company [5] Group 5: Market Sentiment - Market analysts are closely monitoring the sector as miners leverage power assets for high-performance computing, with J.P. Morgan recently rerating mining stocks based on power capacity potential [6]

Core Viewpoint - Activist investor Starboard Value is urging Riot Platforms to accelerate its AI data center initiatives, highlighting the company's potential to benefit from the increasing demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure [1]. Group 1: Company Positioning - Riot Platforms is positioned to leverage its substantial power capacity for AI computing as the profitability of bitcoin mining remains unstable [1]. - Starboard Value owns approximately 12.7 million shares of Riot and emphasizes that Riot's Texas sites, Corsicana and Rockdale, can provide about 1.7 gigawatts of power suitable for AI data center operations [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The letter from Starboard indicates a trend among cryptocurrency miners to pivot towards AI and high-performance computing (HPC) as a response to the volatile nature of bitcoin mining profits [1]. - Starboard notes that AI and HPC companies are increasingly looking to cryptocurrency miners for immediate power capacity for their data centers [1]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - Starboard advises Riot to focus on securing high-quality, investment-grade tenants, such as hyperscalers, rather than merely pursuing the highest lease rates [1]. - The recent agreement between Riot and Advanced Micro Devices is viewed as a positive development, although it is characterized as a minor proof-of-concept deal [1].