Core Viewpoint - Snowflake is currently undergoing a transition and is not experiencing hypergrowth as a SaaS company, leading to market uncertainty about its future direction [1] Company Analysis - The market is trying to understand Snowflake's identity and growth trajectory, which is complicated by current market conditions [1] Investment Strategy - The focus is on uncovering high-upside opportunities in overlooked sectors, particularly small-cap stocks, energy, commodities, and special situations [1] - The investment strategy emphasizes fundamental momentum indicators such as EPS, ROE, and revenue, along with price-volume confirmation and macroeconomic filters [1] - Econometric tools and calculations are utilized to analyze market direction, cycles, and behavior [1]

Core Viewpoint - The software sector is experiencing significant declines due to fears surrounding AI advancements, creating potential investment opportunities for discerning investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - The S&P North American Technology Software Index has entered bear market territory, dropping over 30% from its peak in early September [2]. - Concerns about AI tools disrupting traditional software and digital automation providers have led to a sell-off in legacy software and SaaS stocks [2]. Group 2: Expert Opinions - Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and Wedbush analyst Dan Ives argue that the software industry is not in decline and that the current sell-off is exaggerated, suggesting that enterprises will not abandon established software for unproven technologies [3]. - Ives believes this situation presents a buying opportunity for reputable technology stocks [3]. Group 3: Company Highlights - **Microsoft**: - Stock has fallen 25% from its peak and is trading at 25 times earnings, with a price target of $575, indicating a potential upside of 42% [6]. - The company is heavily invested in AI, integrating it across its products and services, and its Azure Cloud solutions are seeing strong demand [5][6]. - **CrowdStrike**: - The stock has decreased by 25% and is trading at 22 times sales, with a price target of $600, suggesting a 44% upside [8]. - CrowdStrike specializes in cybersecurity and is well-positioned to protect against AI-driven threats [7][8]. - **Snowflake**: - The stock has dropped 35% from its peak and is trading at 13 times sales, with a price target of $270, indicating a potential upside of 51% [11]. - Snowflake's AI-centric platform enhances data management and security, benefiting from increased AI adoption [10][11]. - **Salesforce**: - The stock has fallen 44% and is trading at 25 times earnings, with a price target of $375, implying a potential upside of 103% [13]. - Salesforce has a long history in CRM solutions and has integrated AI into its offerings, creating a strong competitive advantage [12][13]. - **Palantir Technologies**: - The stock has decreased by 36% and is trading at 210 times earnings, with a price target of $230, suggesting a 70% upside [16]. - Palantir's AI platform is in high demand, providing real-time solutions and a strong ROI for businesses [15][16]. - Ives predicts Palantir could become a trillion-dollar market cap company, indicating a long-term upside of 209% [17].

Core Viewpoint - The sell call on Snowflake (SNOW) has proven effective, with the stock trading approximately 22% lower than its levels in July 2025, primarily due to a broader reset in software stocks [1] Group 1: Company Analysis - Snowflake's stock performance reflects a significant decline in the software sector, indicating potential challenges within the industry [1] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of quantitative research and financial modeling in understanding stock valuation and market trends [1] Group 2: Analyst Background - The analyst has over 20 years of experience in quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management, with a focus on equity valuation and portfolio optimization [1] - Previous experience includes a role as Vice President at Barclays, leading teams in model validation and regulatory finance [1] - The research approach combines rigorous risk management with a long-term perspective on value creation, focusing on macroeconomic trends and corporate earnings [1]

Core Viewpoint - Soros Fund Management made significant adjustments to its investment portfolio in the fourth quarter, focusing on increasing exposure to tech giants while engaging in "buy high, sell low" strategies for energy and cryptocurrency stocks [1]. Group 1: Technology Sector Investments - The fund substantially increased its holdings in core technology stocks, including adding 161,000 shares of Microsoft (MSFT.US), 118,000 shares of Nvidia (NVDA.US), and approximately 66,000 shares of Apple [3]. - In the software and mobility sectors, the fund also increased its positions by acquiring approximately 216,000 shares of Atlassian (TEAM.US), 55,000 shares of Salesforce (CRM.US), and 119,000 shares of Uber (UBER.US) [3]. Group 2: Defensive and Growth Investments - In the defensive sector and consumer space, the fund increased its holdings in utility company Exelon (EXC.US) by approximately 488,000 shares and in gaming giant Electronic Arts (EA.US) by about 318,000 shares [3]. Group 3: Reduction in High Volatility and Financial Stocks - The fund reduced its positions in high-volatility and financial stocks, significantly cutting approximately 168,000 shares of Snowflake (SNOW.US) [4]. - It also reduced its holdings in Circle Internet Group (CRCL.US) by about 151,000 shares and in Interactive Brokers (IBKR.US) by approximately 813,000 shares, indicating a cautious stance towards the financial brokerage sector [5][6]. Group 4: New Positions and Exits - The fund opened new positions by purchasing gold-related assets such as New Gold (NGD.US) and established positions in DigitalBridge (DBRG.US), Blue Owl Capital (OWL.US), Exact Sciences (EXAS.US), and Xcel Energy (XEL.US) [7]. - It completely exited positions in KeyCorp (KEY.US), CareTrust REIT (CTRE.US), Cipher Mining (CIFR.US), and KKR & Co. (KKR.US), indicating a shift away from traditional banking and certain cryptocurrency mining stocks towards more stable or defensive sectors [7]. Group 5: Overall Strategy - The overall strategy of Soros Fund Management in the fourth quarter reflects a clear approach: embracing AI and core tech assets like Microsoft and Nvidia while avoiding high-volatility cloud and data companies like Snowflake, and hedging against macroeconomic uncertainties by investing in gold stocks. This "pick and choose" adjustment strategy highlights the pursuit of certainty and safety margins amid global economic uncertainties [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp sector rotation has negatively impacted software stocks such as ServiceNow (NOW), Thomson Reuters (TRI), Intuit (INTU), and Snowflake (SNOW), but analysts believe that AI will enhance rather than completely replace many existing businesses [1][2]. Group 1 - The sharp sector rotation has affected several software companies [1][2]. - Analysts maintain that AI will serve to enhance current business operations instead of fully replacing them [1][2].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The software industry is experiencing a valuation multiple decline of 33%, reaching its lowest level since 2016, primarily due to uncertainties stemming from accelerated AI innovations that have increased discount rates [2][4][5]. - Despite the valuation drop, the fundamental trends in the software industry have not significantly deteriorated, with no major acceleration or deceleration in growth observed [4][5]. Company-Specific Insights Palantir - Palantir reported a strong fourth quarter with a growth rate of 70% and an operating margin of 57%, projecting over 60% growth for the next year [2][5]. - The company's success is attributed to its ontology data technology, which is crucial for understanding data relationships and requires deep domain knowledge and customized services [2][5][6]. - Palantir's Foundry platform is increasingly adopted by clients in industrial and oil & gas sectors, positioning it as a key supplier for companies looking to implement AI projects [5]. Atlassian - Atlassian's free cash flow multiple is approximately 14 times, indicating a low valuation compared to other high-growth companies [8]. - Despite good financial performance, the stock price has not improved, reflecting low market risk appetite and varying investor expectations regarding growth and profitability [8][9]. Snowflake - Snowflake's enterprise value/sales multiple has returned to levels seen in 2014-2016, with signs of growth emerging [3][14]. - The company has shown consistent product revenue growth of 28% over two consecutive quarters, with one quarter reaching 30% [14][15]. - Snowflake's core business remains stable, and its AI business is performing strongly, with product revenue growth expected to approach 30% [18]. Microsoft - Microsoft has demonstrated steady growth in its Azure platform, with a rolling 12-month fixed currency growth rate showing improvement [15]. - The Microsoft 365 business cloud segment is also improving, with a fixed currency growth rate of 15% in the last quarter [15]. Intuit - Intuit is expanding into the high-end market through global business solutions and is focusing on auxiliary services during tax season, which could open a $35 billion market opportunity [19]. ServiceNow - ServiceNow is advancing its new product cycle, with its Now Assist product currently generating an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $600 million [20]. - The adoption rate of its Prosci product is expected to increase significantly in the coming years, contributing to stronger growth [20]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current market sentiment is cautious, with software stocks averaging a 20% decline this year, and prices at 55% of their 52-week highs [4][5]. - Investors are looking for signs of improvement in the participation of established software companies in large-scale innovation cycles to drive growth [14]. - The "AI is software" perspective suggests that AI represents an evolutionary change in software, with large language models being significant breakthroughs that enhance automation in workflows [10][11]. Valuation Considerations - The current enterprise value/sales multiple for the software industry is approximately 4.4 times expected sales, close to historical averages but not at the lowest point [13]. - GAAP earnings issues are affecting investor decisions, with some companies like Microsoft and ServiceNow showing positive GAAP earnings growth, yet not attracting significant market interest [13]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the software industry and specific company performances.

Core Insights - Snowflake has announced a collaboration with U.S. Figure Skating to enhance data and AI capabilities across various aspects of the organization [1] Group 1: Collaboration Details - The partnership aims to improve business operations, athlete performance insights, and the long-term development pipeline of figure skating [1]

Group 1 - Snowflake Inc. has signed a $200 million partnership deal with OpenAI to integrate OpenAI's models into Snowflake's Cortex AI offerings, which analysts view positively [1][2] - RBC Capital rates Snowflake as Outperform with a price target of $300, highlighting the potential for joint enterprise customers to deploy context-aware AI applications on Snowflake's platform [1][2] - Raymond James also reaffirmed an Outperform rating on Snowflake, emphasizing the necessity of such partnerships for organizations providing large language models to expand in the enterprise space [3] Group 2 - Snowflake's platform, the Snowflake Data Cloud, supports various workloads including data engineering, analytics, machine learning, and secure collaboration, positioning it as a central data layer for enterprise AI adoption [4][2] - The company reported $100 million in AI-related annual recurring revenue, indicating a strong foothold in the AI market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The software sector is experiencing significant declines due to fears that AI advancements will disrupt existing software companies, leading to a sell-off on Wall Street [1][2][6]. Group 1: Market Impact - ServiceNow (NOW) stock has decreased by over 22% since January 29, while Thomson Reuters (TRI) has fallen more than 26% as of Wednesday. Intuit (INTU) shares are down over 26%, and Snowflake (SNOW) has shed 18%. Salesforce (CRM) has dropped more than 20% [2]. - The release of new AI tools by Anthropic and OpenAI has intensified concerns that these companies will either create competing software or enable businesses to develop their own, posing a threat to traditional software firms [1][2]. Group 2: Analyst Perspectives - Some analysts believe the panic in the market is an overreaction, suggesting that AI will not replace existing software companies but rather enhance their services [3][4]. - William Blair analyst Jason Ader noted that the current market reaction resembles a "baby-with-the-bath-water" situation, indicating that not all software companies are equally at risk [4]. Group 3: AI Industry Developments - The AI industry has made significant advancements since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022, changing how tasks are performed but it is premature to declare AI companies as the new leaders in enterprise software [5]. - The uncertainty surrounding the potential impact of AI on the software industry has led to a broader sell-off, with investors seeking safer investments in sectors perceived as more stable [6][7].

Group 1 - Market professionals believe that the recent sell-off in software stocks has been excessive, creating new buying opportunities at lower prices [1][4] - Morgan Stanley strategists noted the potential for a rebound in the software market due to overly pessimistic expectations regarding AI disruption and strong fundamentals [1] - Jefferies found that 42% of the software stocks they cover are trading at or near historical undervaluation levels, indicating potential for a strong rebound [4] Group 2 - The S&P North American Software Index's expected price-to-earnings ratio recently fell below 20 for the first time, currently around 23, significantly lower than its long-term average of 34 [1] - A notable ETF tracking the software industry experienced a 15% drop over eight trading days but rebounded by 7.2%, with retail investors showing record buying activity [4] Group 3 - Companies like Microsoft, Snowflake, ServiceNow, Salesforce, and Palantir Technologies have been mentioned as long-term winners that have also suffered during the sell-off [5] - Snowflake's stock dropped 27% in a short period, but it is positioned favorably within the AI ecosystem, having signed significant partnerships with OpenAI and Anthropic [6] Group 4 - Concerns about AI coding replacing existing software packages have contributed to the negative sentiment in the software market, with recent market declines linked to new AI tools released by companies like Anthropic and Alphabet [8] - Despite the uncertainty, industry research predicts a 14.1% earnings growth rate for the software and services sub-sector by 2026, which is higher than the expected growth rate for the S&P 500 [8] Group 5 - Some companies, like Monday.com and S&P Global, have faced disappointing earnings forecasts, leading to significant stock price declines [9] - However, the overall performance of software companies in the current earnings season has been strong, with 10 companies exceeding earnings expectations, indicating that the negative trend may not be severe enough to deter investors [9]