A strong stock as of late has been South Bow Corporation (SOBO) . Shares have been marching higher, with the stock up 16.5% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $32.75 in the previous session. South Bow Corporation has gained 19% since the start of the year compared to the 20.1% gain for the Zacks Oils-Energy sector and the 15.2% return for the Zacks Oil and Gas - Production and Pipelines industry.What's Driving the Outperformance?The stock has an impressive record of positive earnings s ...

Exclusive: Carney knew of South Bow's Keystone XL plans before White House meeting, source says | ReutersSkip to main content[Exclusive news, data and analytics for financial market professionalsLearn more aboutRefinitiv]Item 1 of 2 Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks to the media after touring auto parts manufacturer Martinrea Industries in Woodbridge, Ontario, Canada, February 5, 2026. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio[1/2]Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks to the media after touring auto parts manufac ...

Core Viewpoint - South Bow Corp. is addressing the findings from an independent root cause analysis (RCA) related to an incident on the Keystone Pipeline, emphasizing its commitment to safety and system integrity improvements [1][2][3]. Root Cause Analysis Findings - The RCA revealed that the incident at Milepost 171 was due to a fatigue crack originating from the pipe's long-seam weld, with the seam weld geometry contributing to stress concentration [6]. - The pipe and welds met industry standards, and the pipeline was operating within design pressure at the time of the incident [2][6]. - The presence of hydrogen increased material brittleness and accelerated the crack growth during 15 years of normal operations [6]. Remedial Actions - South Bow has completed seven in-line inspection runs and 51 integrity digs, with preliminary results indicating no injurious issues [3]. - The company is modifying its in-line inspection process to improve data analysis and tool performance, with additional inspections scheduled for 2026 [3][4]. - A remedial work plan has been submitted to the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) for approval, incorporating RCA recommendations [4]. Company Overview - South Bow operates 4,900 kilometers (3,045 miles) of crude oil pipeline infrastructure, connecting Alberta crude oil supplies to U.S. refining markets [11]. - The company is recognized as an investment-grade entity, with shares traded on both the Toronto Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol SOBO [11].

Core Viewpoint - South Bow Corp. is set to release its fourth-quarter and year-end 2025 financial and operational results on March 5, 2026, followed by a conference call and webcast on March 6, 2026, at 8 a.m. MT (10 a.m. ET) [1][2]. Financial and Operational Results - The financial and operational results for the fourth quarter and year-end 2025 will be disclosed after market close on March 5, 2026 [1]. - A conference call and webcast will be held on March 6, 2026, to discuss these results [2]. Conference Call and Webcast Details - The conference call is scheduled for March 6, 2026, at 8 a.m. MT (10 a.m. ET) [2]. - Participants can register in advance to receive a unique PIN for telephone access or use the "Call Me" option for an automated call [3]. Company Overview - South Bow operates 4,900 kilometers (3,045 miles) of crude oil pipeline infrastructure, connecting Alberta crude oil supplies to U.S. refining markets [6]. - The company is recognized for providing safe and reliable transportation of crude oil to high-demand markets in North America [6]. - South Bow's common shares are traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol SOBO [6].

Core Insights - South Bow Corporation (NYSE:SOBO) has received a cautious outlook from Wall Street following mixed results for fiscal Q3 2025, with analysts reiterating Sell ratings and adjusting price targets slightly upward [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported an EPS of $0.47, exceeding estimates by $0.08, but revenue fell 13.7% year-over-year to $461 million, missing estimates by $37 million [2]. - Average throughput on the Keystone Pipeline was approximately 584,000 barrels per day (bbl/d), while the U.S. Gulf Coast segment reported around 703,000 bbl/d [2]. Analyst Ratings and Valuation - Analyst Praneeth Satish from Wells Fargo maintained a Sell rating due to ongoing valuation concerns, noting that SOBO trades at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.2x compared to the sector median of 8.8x [3]. - The potential financial impacts from the MP 171 incident were also highlighted as a concern for the company's outlook [3]. Guidance and Operations - Management has kept its annual 2025 guidance largely unchanged, expecting Normalized EBITDA around $1.010 billion and a slight improvement in the effective tax rate from 23%-24% to 20%-21% [4]. - South Bow Corporation operates critical crude oil pipelines and facilities that connect Alberta's oil production to U.S. refining markets in the Midwest and Gulf Coast [4].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley analyst Robert Kad has raised the price target for South Bow (SOBO) to C$35 from C$34 while maintaining an Underweight rating on the shares, indicating a cautious outlook on the stock despite the price target increase [1]. Group 1: Price Target and Rating - The price target for South Bow (SOBO) has been increased to C$35 from C$34 [1]. - The firm continues to hold an Underweight rating on SOBO shares, suggesting a bearish stance on the stock's performance [1]. Group 2: Industry Context - The update on price targets is part of a broader review of North American Midstream & Renewable Energy Infrastructure stocks under Morgan Stanley's coverage [1]. - A framework agreement for a Canadian crude oil pipeline project and oil sands carbon capture has been reached, but there are still several unknowns that remain, indicating potential uncertainties in the sector [1].

South Bow Investor Day Summary Company Overview - **Company**: South Bow - **Event**: Inaugural Investor Day - **Key Executives Present**: Bevin Wirzba (CEO), Van Dafoe (CFO), Richard Prior (COO) [1][2] Core Industry Insights - **Industry Focus**: Heavy oil supply and demand dynamics - **Market Position**: South Bow connects the strongest supply of heavy oil globally to high demand markets in the Midwest and Gulf Coast [4][9] - **Unique Value Proposition**: South Bow operates an integrated value chain, enhancing customer relationships and creating value for both shareholders and customers [4][10] Financial Performance and Goals - **Milestones Achieved**: Successfully completed a spin-off from TC, listed on NYSE on October 8, 2024, and met all initial commitments [6][7] - **Financial Strategy**: Focus on reducing costs, maintaining a lean operational model, and optimizing capital allocation [11][30] - **Debt Management**: Targeting a leverage ratio of four times by 2027, ahead of schedule [30][54] Safety and Operational Excellence - **Safety Record**: Achieved 1.5 million work hours without a recordable incident in 2025 [18] - **Operational Goals**: Continuous improvement in safety performance and operational efficiency [27][33] - **Asset Integrity Focus**: Investing $150 million annually in pipeline integrity programs, aiming for industry-leading performance [56][57] Growth Strategy - **Growth Opportunities**: Plans for both organic growth (e.g., BlackRod project) and inorganic opportunities to expand revenue streams [28][41] - **Market Demand**: Anticipated increase in Canadian crude oil demand in the U.S., particularly in PADD 2 and PADD 3 markets [71][72] - **Production Forecast**: Potential for an additional million barrels per day from the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) over the next decade [74] Key Challenges and Responses - **Incident Management**: Addressed the Milepost 171 incident effectively, with rapid response and remediation efforts [62][63] - **Regulatory Compliance**: Ongoing transparency with regulators and commitment to improving pipeline integrity [66][67] Conclusion - **Commitment to Shareholders**: South Bow emphasizes a sustainable dividend, financial discipline, and a focus on long-term growth while maintaining a strong balance sheet [44][45][53] - **Future Outlook**: Confident in the ability to leverage existing assets and market conditions to drive growth and enhance shareholder value [48][72]

Investor Day NOVEMBER 19, 2025 Agenda | CONVERSATION WITH MANAGEMENT | | --- | | | Bevin Wirzba | President & Chief Executive Officer | | --- | --- | --- | | | Van Dafoe | Senior Vice-President & Chief Financial Officer | | | Richard Prior | Senior Vice-President & Chief Operating Officer | | Q&A SESSION | | | | BREAKOUT SESSIONS | | | | Asset Integrity & Safe Operations | Gary Salsman | Vice President, Safety & Operations | | --- | --- | --- | | | Mark Yeomans | Vice President, Engineering & Pipeline Integ ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the author's extensive experience in investment banking, particularly in equity research and corporate finance within the Canadian electric utilities and infrastructure sectors [1]. Group 1: Experience and Expertise - The author has over twenty years of experience in sell-side equity research, corporate and project finance, M&A, and valuations [1]. - A decade was spent as an equity research analyst at global banks, including UniCredit Securities and HSBC Global Markets, where the author was recognized as a top-rated analyst [1]. - Prior to the investment banking career, the author worked for ten years in a Canadian corporate environment focusing on power projects and M&A [1]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The author believes in actionable investment ideas and the importance of compelling narratives and clear arguments [1]. - There is an intention to share insights and stories to contribute to a more informed investment community [1].

Core Viewpoint - Conifex Timber Inc. reported a negative EBITDA of $16.5 million for Q3 2025, significantly impacted by a one-time noncash charge related to duty deposit underpayments on lumber exports to the U.S. [4] Financial Performance - The negative EBITDA of $16.5 million includes a one-time charge of $12 million; excluding this, the regular EBITDA was negative by just over $4.5 million [4] - The company wrote down its quarter-end inventories by $1.2 million, contributing to the negative EBITDA [4] - For the nine-month period, the regular EBITDA was negative by $2.8 million, showing a major improvement from a loss of $11.5 million in the same period the previous year [4]