Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:SRPT) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call February 26, 2025 4:30 PM ET Company Participants Mary Jenkins - Associate Director, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications Doug Ingram - President and CEO Ian Estepan - Executive Vice President and CFO Dallan Murray - Executive Vice President and CCO Dr. Louise Rodino-Klapac - Executive Vice President, Chief Scientific Officer and Head, Research & Development Conference Call Participants Tazeen Ahmad - Bank of America Securi ...

Core Viewpoint - Sarepta Therapeutics reported quarterly earnings of $1.50 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.87 per share, representing an earnings surprise of -19.79% [1] - The company posted revenues of $658.41 million for the quarter ended December 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.83% and showing a significant increase from $396.78 million year-over-year [2] Financial Performance - Earnings per share (EPS) for the current quarter was $1.50, compared to $0.47 per share a year ago [1] - The company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters [2] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.73, with expected revenues of $656.12 million, and for the current fiscal year, the EPS estimate is $10.94 on revenues of $3.03 billion [7] Market Performance - Sarepta Therapeutics shares have declined approximately 12% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 1.3% [3] - The company's Zacks Rank is currently 2 (Buy), indicating expectations of outperforming the market in the near future [6] Industry Outlook - The Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry is currently in the top 24% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook for stocks within this sector [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5]

Financial Performance - Preliminary total net product revenue of $638.2 million for Q4 2024 and $1.79 billion for full-year 2024, exceeding full-year guidance by over $100 million[4] - Total product revenue grew by 75% year-over-year in Q4 2024 and 56% over 2023 for the full year[3] - ELEVIDYS net product revenue reached $384.2 million for Q4 2024 and $820.8 million for full-year 2024, exceeding guidance by over $60 million[4] - RNA-based PMO net product revenue totaled $254.0 million for Q4 2024 and $967.2 million for full-year 2024[4] - Year-end 2024 cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and investments balance was approximately $1.5 billion[4] - The company reiterates 2025 full-year total net product revenue guidance of $2.9 to $3.1 billion[4] Product Information - ELEVIDYS is a gene transfer therapy for Duchenne muscular dystrophy, addressing the underlying genetic cause through micro-dystrophin production[5][6] - The company has over 40 programs in various stages of development, focusing on precision genetic medicine for rare diseases[18] Regulatory and Safety Considerations - Continued approval for ELEVIDYS in non-ambulatory patients may depend on verification of clinical benefit in confirmatory trials[7] - The company emphasizes the importance of monitoring for adverse reactions following ELEVIDYS administration, including liver injury and myocarditis[11][15]

Core Viewpoint - Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) has experienced a bearish trend, losing 9% over the past four weeks, but the formation of a hammer chart pattern suggests a potential trend reversal as buying interest may be increasing [1][2]. Technical Analysis - The hammer chart pattern indicates a possible bottoming out, with reduced selling pressure, suggesting that bulls may be gaining control [2][4]. - A hammer pattern forms when there is a small candle body with a long lower wick, indicating that despite a downtrend, buying interest emerges at lower prices, pushing the stock up to close near its opening price [3][4]. - This pattern can occur across various timeframes and is utilized by both short-term and long-term investors [4]. Fundamental Analysis - There has been a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions for SRPT, which is a bullish indicator, as it typically leads to price appreciation [6]. - The consensus EPS estimate for the current year has increased by 8.3% over the last 30 days, indicating strong agreement among analysts regarding the company's improved earnings potential [7]. - SRPT holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks, which historically outperform the market [8].

Core Viewpoint - Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) has experienced significant selling pressure, resulting in an 8.5% decline in stock price over the past four weeks, but analysts anticipate better earnings than previously predicted, indicating potential for recovery [1]. Group 1: Technical Analysis - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is utilized to identify oversold stocks, with a reading below 30 typically indicating oversold conditions [2]. - SRPT's current RSI reading is 29.78, suggesting that the heavy selling may be exhausting itself and a trend reversal could be imminent [5]. - The RSI serves as a momentum oscillator, helping investors identify potential entry points for stocks that have fallen below their fair value due to excessive selling pressure [3]. Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - Analysts have raised earnings estimates for SRPT by 10.1% over the last 30 days, indicating a strong consensus among sell-side analysts and suggesting potential price appreciation [6]. - SRPT holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises, further supporting the stock's potential for a turnaround [7].

Company Overview - Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: SRPT) is a commercial stage pharmaceutical company that markets and sells four different types of drugs for the treatment of Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD), a genetic disorder characterized by progressive muscle loss [2]. Investment Insights - The investment group Haggerston BioHealth provides insights for both novice and experienced biotech investors, including catalysts to watch, buy and sell ratings, product sales forecasts, and integrated financial statements [2]. Analyst Background - Edmund Ingham, a biotech consultant with over five years of experience in the sector, has compiled detailed reports on more than 1,000 companies and leads the Haggerston BioHealth investing group [2].

Core Viewpoint - Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) has experienced a 23% increase in stock price over the past year, outperforming the industry which saw a decline of 15.7% [1][4] Group 1: Stock Performance - SRPT's stock has outperformed the broader Medical sector but slightly underperformed the S&P 500 Index [1] - The stock is currently trading above the 50-day moving average [1] Group 2: Revenue Growth from Elevidys - Elevidys, the first one-shot gene therapy for Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD), has shown significant sales performance since its launch in June 2023, contributing over $200 million to revenue in 2023 [5][6] - The FDA expanded Elevidys' label to treat all DMD patients aged four years and older, leading to over $400 million in revenue in the first nine months of 2024 [6] Group 3: Partnerships and Future Revenue - Sarepta has a licensing agreement with Roche, which has exclusive rights to market Elevidys outside the U.S., generating $9.5 million in royalty revenues in Q3 2024 [7] - Management anticipates net product revenues of $2.9-$3.1 billion for 2025, with two-thirds expected from Elevidys sales [8] Group 4: Pipeline Expansion - Sarepta is expanding its pipeline beyond DMD, focusing on multiple innovative gene therapies for various muscular dystrophies [9][10] - The company is conducting late-stage studies on gene therapy candidates for limb-girdle muscular dystrophy and has plans for additional clinical studies [11][12] Group 5: Strategic Acquisitions - In November, Sarepta announced a $500 million deal to acquire seven pipeline programs from Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, which will enhance its portfolio and expand into new indications [13] Group 6: Market Dependence and Valuation - Despite having four FDA-approved therapies, Sarepta's revenue is heavily reliant on Elevidys, which accounted for over one-third of total revenues in the first nine months of 2024 [14] - The stock trades at a premium with a price/sales ratio of 7.73 compared to the industry average of 1.96 [15] Group 7: Earnings Estimates - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024 have increased from $1.48 to $2.17, while 2025 estimates have slightly decreased from $10.35 to $10.04 [17] Group 8: Investment Recommendation - Despite trading at a premium, the strong commercial potential of Elevidys and management's plans for diversification make it a recommended addition to investment portfolios [18][19]

Core Insights - Sarepta Therapeutics has completed enrollment and dosing in the phase III EMERGENE study for its gene therapy SRP-9003 targeting limb-girdle muscular dystrophy (LGMD) Type 2E/R4 [1][2] - Positive data from the EMERGENE study is anticipated in the first half of 2025, with plans for regulatory filing for accelerated approval if results are favorable [2] - LGMD2E/R4 is an ultra-rare genetic disease with no current treatment options beyond symptom management, leading to significant mobility loss and early mortality [3] Company Developments - Sarepta has initiated a clinical study for another gene therapy candidate, SRP-9004, targeting LGMD type 2D, and plans to start a study for SRP-9005 for LGMD type 2C in Q1 2025 [4][5] - The studies are designed to support FDA approval under the accelerated pathway [5] Stock Performance - Year-to-date, Sarepta's shares have increased by 24.7%, contrasting with a 10.5% decline in the industry [8] Commercial Portfolio - Sarepta's commercial portfolio includes three approved RNA-based PMO therapies and the one-shot gene therapy Elevidys, which is the first of its kind for DMD in the U.S. [9][10] - Elevidys generated approximately $437 million in product sales in the first nine months of 2024, compared to over $200 million in the previous year [10] - The company’s therapies, including Exondys 51, Vyondys 53, and Amondys 45, have strong demand and are expected to address nearly a third of all DMD patients in the U.S. [11]

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Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) has seen a 14.1% increase in share price over the past four weeks, closing at $124.47, with a potential upside of 48% based on Wall Street analysts' mean price target of $184.15 [1] Price Target Analysis - The average of 20 short-term price targets ranges from a low of $75 to a high of $217, with a standard deviation of $32.08, indicating variability in estimates [2] - The lowest estimate suggests a decline of 39.7%, while the highest indicates a potential upside of 74.3% [2] - A low standard deviation signifies greater agreement among analysts regarding price movement [7] Earnings Estimates and Analyst Sentiment - Analysts are increasingly optimistic about SRPT's earnings prospects, as evidenced by a strong consensus in revising EPS estimates higher, which correlates with potential stock price increases [9] - Over the last 30 days, one estimate has increased, leading to a 4.7% rise in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year [10] - SRPT holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate factors, indicating strong potential for upside [11] Caution on Price Targets - While consensus price targets are popular among investors, they may not reliably indicate actual stock price movements, and should be approached with skepticism [5][8] - Analysts often set optimistic price targets due to business incentives, which can lead to inflated estimates [6]