The Buy Thesis - STAG Industrial (STAG) is positioned for significant growth in AFFO/share, with organic growth projected at 3%-5% and higher cap rates making acquisitions and developments immediately accretive [1][2] Industrial Real Estate Environment - The industrial real estate landscape is evolving, with leasing dynamics favoring landlords and rental rates surging by up to 50% from 2021 to 2024 [3] - A wave of new industrial properties is being developed, particularly large logistics facilities, leading to a national vacancy rate of over 7%, which aligns with historical norms [4][5] - Existing leases are still below market rates, with STAG signing new leases at rates 38.1% higher than expiring leases [6][9] Leasing Dynamics - Market asking rents have stabilized, with cash rent changes of +27.2% in Q3 2025 and +16.3% in Q4 2025 [7] - STAG's same-store NOI growth is expected to be around 3.5% in 2026, contributing approximately $22 million annually to AFFO/share growth [11][13] Transaction Volumes and Cap Rates - Cap rates for industrial properties have risen to the mid-6% range, unlocking acquisition opportunities for REITs, with STAG's acquisition guidance for 2025 set at $350-$500 million [15][16] - STAG anticipates a return to average acquisition volumes of around $700 million in 2026, with a favorable spread of 75 basis points on cap rates [17][18] Developments - STAG has a healthy development pipeline, with several projects expected to deliver in late 2025 or early 2026, targeting yields of 7% or higher [20][23] - The total in-construction pipeline includes properties totaling approximately 1,259,293 square feet [22] Summary of Growth Levers - STAG is projected to achieve $0.19 of AFFO/share accretion, leading to an expected AFFO of $2.13 per share in 2025, representing a growth rate of about 9% [24][25] - The breakdown of accretion includes $22 million from same-store NOI growth, $11 million from acquisitions, and $2 million from developments [26] Conclusion - STAG is viewed as a strong investment opportunity with a projected annual return of 13% based on a 4% dividend yield and a favorable growth outlook [34][35]

Group 1 - STAG Industrial is positioned for approximately 9% annual growth in AFFO/share, benefiting from a favorable industrial real estate environment and increased acquisition activity [1][2][24] - The industrial real estate landscape is experiencing a shift, with market rental rates surging up to 50% from 2021 to 2024, leading to a balanced leasing environment as vacancy rates rise to over 7% [3][4][5] - STAG is signing new leases at rates 38.1% higher than expiring leases, indicating significant potential for revenue growth as legacy leases roll over [6][9] Group 2 - Cap rates for industrial properties have risen into the mid-6% range, unlocking acquisition opportunities for STAG, with a projected acquisition volume of $350-$500 million for 2025 and an anticipated increase to around $700 million in 2026 [14][16][17] - STAG's developments are also expected to contribute positively, with a pipeline of projects that are anticipated to yield around 7% to 9.3% upon stabilization, further enhancing AFFO growth [23][24] - The company is expected to achieve an additional $0.19 of AFFO/share accretion, with a consensus estimate of $2.13 per share of AFFO in 2025, reflecting strong growth potential [24][25][26]

Group 1 - The article provides a market analysis covering Canadian Natural Resources Limited, STAG Industrial Inc, and Global X Russell 2000 Covered Call ETF, indicating a focus on investment opportunities within these companies and sectors [1] Group 2 - Canadian Natural Resources Limited is highlighted for its strong performance in the energy sector, with a focus on oil and gas production [1] - STAG Industrial Inc is discussed in the context of the industrial real estate market, emphasizing its growth potential and investment appeal [1] - Global X Russell 2000 Covered Call ETF is analyzed for its strategy of generating income through covered call options, appealing to investors seeking yield [1]

Dividend Announcement - The Board of Directors of STAG Industrial, Inc. declared a dividend of $0.3875 per share for the first quarter of 2026, increasing the annual dividend rate from $1.49 to $1.55 per share and shifting from monthly to quarterly dividends [1] - The record date for the first quarter dividend is March 31, 2026, with a payment date of April 15, 2026 [1] Future Dividend Schedule - The Company plans to announce future quarterly dividends in late April, July, October, and February for the respective quarters, contingent upon Board approval [2] Company Overview - STAG Industrial, Inc. is a real estate investment trust focused on acquiring, developing, owning, and operating industrial properties across the United States [3] - As of September 30, 2025, the Company's portfolio includes 601 buildings in 41 states, totaling approximately 119.2 million rentable square feet [3]

Core Viewpoint - STAG Industrial, Inc. will release its fourth quarter and full year 2025 operating and financial results on February 11, 2026, after market close, followed by a conference call on February 12, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time [1]. Company Overview - STAG Industrial, Inc. is a real estate investment trust focused on the acquisition, development, ownership, and operation of industrial properties across the United States [3]. - As of September 30, 2025, the company's portfolio includes 601 buildings located in 41 states, encompassing approximately 119.2 million rentable square feet [3]. Conference Call Details - The conference call can be accessed live via phone at (877) 407-4018 for domestic callers and (201) 689-8471 for international callers [2]. - A replay of the call will be available shortly after it concludes, accessible at (844) 512-2921 for domestic callers and (412) 317-6671 for international callers, with the passcode 13757743 [2]. - Interested parties can also listen to a simultaneous webcast of the conference call on the Investor Relations section of the company's website [3].

Group 1 - The article provides a market analysis focusing on STAG Industrial Inc, Realty Income Corp, and Diversified Royalty Corp, highlighting their performance and investment potential [1] Group 2 - STAG Industrial Inc is noted for its strong portfolio of industrial properties, which has shown resilience in the current market environment [1] - Realty Income Corp is recognized for its monthly dividend payments and stable cash flow, making it an attractive option for income-focused investors [1] - Diversified Royalty Corp is discussed in terms of its growth strategy and the potential for increased revenue through acquisitions and partnerships [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. industrial real estate market is resilient, supported by e-commerce growth and declining supply, which is expected to strengthen industrial REITs [2][4][6] Industry Overview - E-commerce is transforming consumer shopping and logistics, driving demand for efficient supply chains and modern logistics infrastructure [4] - Companies are increasingly integrating AI to enhance supply-chain efficiencies, further propelling demand for industrial real estate [4] - The demand is concentrated in high-quality assets with modern amenities, leading to a performance gap between new and older properties [5] - The vacancy rate in the industrial real estate market is projected to reach 7% by year-end, peaking in mid-2026 [5] - Tariffs have impacted import volumes, but a shift towards domestic manufacturing and near-shore production is expected to sustain demand for industrial spaces [6] Market Performance - U.S. industrial net absorption improved by 30% quarter over quarter and 33% year over year in Q3 [7] - Asking rent growth remains positive, with a forecasted rebound to 3-4% in 2026 as demand and supply rebalance [7] Company Highlights Prologis Inc. (PLD) - Prologis focuses on industrial distribution warehouse space in key markets, benefiting from strategic locations near transportation hubs [9] - The company is engaged in numerous build-to-suit projects and is converting warehouses into data centers to leverage growth in that sector [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 FFO per share is $6.09, indicating a 4.9% year-over-year growth [12] STAG Industrial (STAG) - STAG specializes in single-tenant industrial properties, with a portfolio of 601 buildings across 41 states, totaling 119.2 million square feet [13] - The company benefits from e-commerce growth, with 31% of its portfolio focused on e-commerce activities [14] - STAG's portfolio is strategically located near Megasite projects, enhancing demand for its warehouse spaces [14] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 FFO per share is $2.66, reflecting a 5.1% year-over-year growth [16] Industrial Logistics Properties Trust (ILPT) - ILPT owns 411 properties across the U.S., with a high leasing rate of 94.1% and a weighted average lease term of 7.4 years [17] - The majority of its rental revenues come from investment-grade tenants, providing stable income [18] - ILPT executed leases for 2.5 million square feet in the first half of 2025, indicating strong demand for its portfolio [19] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 FFO per share is $1.14, suggesting a significant 20% year-over-year growth [19]

Core Viewpoint - STAG Industrial is currently 28% undervalued compared to its NAV of $51.2, indicating a strong investment opportunity [1] Group 1: Valuation - STAG Industrial is relatively undervalued when compared to its peers in the industry [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - STAG reported relatively strong financial results for Q3, contributing to its attractiveness as an investment [1]

Company Overview - STAG Industrial, Inc. (NYSE:STAG) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on purchasing, developing, and managing industrial properties across the United States [3]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, STAG reported a net income attributable to shareholders of $48.6 million, an increase from $41.8 million in the same quarter of the previous year [2]. - The company purchased two buildings in the September quarter, covering an area of 1 million square feet, with a total value of $101.5 million [2]. - STAG's total portfolio had an occupancy rate of 95.8% [2]. - The retention rate for leases expiring in the third quarter, covering 2.5 million square feet, was 63.4% [2]. Stock Performance and Analyst Ratings - As of December 1, the average price target for STAG suggests an upside of nearly 1%, while the highest target indicates a potential upside of 17% [1]. - Analyst Nick Joseph from Citi affirmed a Neutral rating on STAG and raised the price target from $35 to $40 [1]. Dividend Information - STAG will distribute a monthly dividend of $0.124167 per share on December 15 to shareholders on record as of November 28 [2].

Core Insights - David A. Johnson is the founder and principal of Endurance Capital Management, specializing in various investment vehicles including stocks, bonds, options, ETFs, REITs, real estate, closed-end funds, hedge funds, and private credit [1] Group 1 - David A. Johnson has over 30 years of experience in investing and holds a Master of Science (MS) Degree in Finance with a concentration in Investment Analysis from Boston University [1] - He also possesses a Certificate in Financial Planning and an MBA from Fordham University [1]