Market Dynamics in Hard Disk Drives - The main competitor, Western Digital, has forecasted mid-20s exabyte growth in nearline storage [2] - There is a need for the company to evaluate its own growth projections in relation to Western Digital's forecast [2]

Seagate Technology FY Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Seagate Technology (NasdaqGS: STX) - **Date of Conference**: February 25, 2026 Industry Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The hard disk drive (HDD) market is experiencing growth, with Seagate agreeing with competitor Western Digital's forecast of mid-20s exabyte growth in nearline HDDs over the next three to five years [3][4]. - **Pricing Trends**: HDD pricing has remained stable, with slight increases year-on-year. Seagate expects average prices per terabyte to remain flat to slightly up, consistent with their pricing strategy established three years ago [5][8][14]. Key Points Growth and Demand - **Exabyte Production**: Seagate anticipates a 25% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in exabyte production over the next three to four years, despite challenges in areal density improvements [25][33]. - **Demand vs. Supply**: Demand for HDDs is currently exceeding supply, with all produced units being sold. The company does not foresee a shift to NAND for large-scale data storage, as their infrastructure remains reliant on HDDs [17][23]. Pricing Strategy - **Contract Negotiations**: Seagate's pricing strategy involves consistent price increases during contract renewals, aiming to encourage customers to adopt newer, higher-capacity products [6][10]. - **Long-term Contracts**: The company is discussing pricing and volume agreements for 2026 and beyond, with a focus on maintaining stability in pricing [114][120]. Technology and Production - **HAMR Technology**: Seagate is advancing its Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR) technology, which is expected to improve areal density significantly. However, the current yield rates for HAMR products are not yet at the level of traditional Perpendicular Magnetic Recording (PMR) products [44][47]. - **Production Capacity**: Seagate's factories are currently operating at full capacity, and there are no immediate plans to increase unit production. The focus is on optimizing existing production to meet demand [37][43]. Financial Performance - **Gross Margins**: The company has seen consistent improvements in gross margins over the past 11 quarters, driven by stable pricing and cost reductions associated with higher-capacity drives [73][92]. - **Free Cash Flow**: Seagate plans to return over 75% of free cash flow to shareholders, with a focus on reducing debt, which has decreased from over $6 billion to below $4 billion [92][93]. Competitive Landscape - **Comparison with Western Digital**: Despite Seagate's advancements in HAMR technology, Western Digital currently maintains a slightly higher gross margin. This is attributed to differences in production optimization and product mix [77][82]. - **Market Positioning**: Seagate emphasizes that customers prioritize exabyte capacity and cost efficiency over the specific technology used in HDDs, indicating a strong market demand for larger capacity drives [150][152]. Additional Insights - **AI and Data Storage**: The rise of AI applications is driving demand for data storage, particularly in video AI and autonomous driving, which require significant data retention [125][130]. - **Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)**: The increasing NAND prices are widening the cost gap between HDDs and SSDs, but this is not significantly impacting Seagate's core business, which remains focused on data centers [95][96]. Conclusion Seagate Technology is positioned strongly within the HDD market, with a clear strategy focused on maintaining pricing stability, optimizing production, and leveraging technological advancements to meet growing demand. The company is navigating competitive pressures while ensuring robust returns to shareholders through effective cash flow management.

来源：滚动播报 存储概念涨势扩大，西部数据涨超7％，希捷科技涨超4％，美光科技涨超3％，闪迪涨超1％。 ...

来源：智通财经网 周三，存储概念涨势扩大，西部数据(WDC.US)涨超7%，希捷科技(STX.US)涨超4%，美光科技 (MU.US)涨超3%，闪迪(SNDK.US)涨超1%。消息面上，此前华尔街知名做空机构香橼称正在做空闪 迪，并直言警钟不会在顶部敲响。香橼直言繁荣只是"海市蜃楼，"供应幻象"掩盖周期危机"。对于香橼 狙击闪迪一事，有市场分析指出，香橼的做空逻辑抓住了周期股的要害，但时机可能早了约两年。部分 投资者则认为，AI驱动的结构性需求增长可能在一定程度上平滑传统的周期性波动，当前的短缺并非 完全是"幻象"。 稍早前，SK海力士在高盛电话会上释放强烈信号称，在AI需求爆发与供应瓶颈的共振下，存储价格上 涨已成定局。公司透露，目前DRAM及NAND库存仅剩约4周，且没有任何客户能完全满足需求。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The storage sector is experiencing significant gains, with companies like Western Digital (WDC) rising over 7%, Seagate Technology (STX) over 4%, and Micron Technology (MU) over 3%, amidst a backdrop of short-selling activity by Citron Research targeting SanDisk (SNDK) [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The storage concept's upward trend is highlighted by substantial stock price increases among key players in the industry [1] - Citron Research's short position on SanDisk raises concerns about the sustainability of the current market conditions, suggesting that the apparent prosperity may be misleading [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Market analysts indicate that Citron's short-selling rationale effectively addresses the cyclical nature of the sector, although the timing may be premature by approximately two years [1] - There is a belief among some investors that AI-driven structural demand growth could mitigate traditional cyclical fluctuations, suggesting that the current shortages are not entirely illusory [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - SK Hynix has signaled strong expectations for rising storage prices due to a confluence of AI demand surges and supply constraints, indicating a critical inventory situation with DRAM and NAND stocks lasting only about four weeks [1] - The company reports that no customers are able to fully meet their demand, further emphasizing the tight supply conditions in the market [1]

Core Insights - The global data storage market is projected to grow significantly, reaching $984.6 billion by 2034 at a CAGR of 16% [2] - Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) focuses on hardware drives, while NetApp, Inc. (NTAP) specializes in data management and hybrid cloud storage [1] Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) - Seagate specializes in HDDs and enterprise nearline storage, benefiting from rising demand driven by AI and cloud workloads [4][8] - Fiscal Q2 revenue reached $2.83 billion, a 22% year-over-year increase, supported by strong nearline cloud demand [4][7] - Non-GAAP gross margin exceeded 42%, aided by pricing strategies and high-capacity drive adoption [5] - The company is advancing HAMR technology, aiming for 10 terabytes per disk by early next decade [5] - Seagate's strong cash flow supports innovation, acquisitions, and shareholder returns, with $154 million returned to shareholders in the December quarter [9] - The company maintains capital discipline with fiscal 2026 capital spending expected to be 4-6% of revenue [10] - However, Seagate faces challenges from forex fluctuations, competition, and a high debt load of $4.5 billion against $1.05 billion in cash [11] NetApp, Inc. (NTAP) - NetApp provides enterprise storage and data management solutions, with growth driven by all-flash storage and AI solutions [12] - All-flash revenue grew 9% to $1 billion, with Keystone sales increasing 76% year-over-year [7][15] - The company emphasizes cybersecurity, enhancing its ransomware resilience capabilities [14] - Keystone storage-as-a-service is gaining traction, with revenues up 76% year-over-year [15] - NetApp returned $353 million to shareholders in fiscal Q2, supported by solid free cash flow [16] - The company remains cautious on spending due to macroeconomic uncertainties, projecting fiscal 2026 revenue between $6.625 billion and $6.875 billion [17] Price Performance and Valuation - Over the past year, STX shares surged 294.9%, while NTAP shares declined 19.8% [20] - STX trades at a price/earnings ratio of 24.82, compared to NTAP's 14.49 [21] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for STX's fiscal 2026 earnings has been revised up 11.8% to $12.63, while NTAP's estimate has been revised down to $7.91 [25][27] Investment Considerations - STX benefits from strong demand for mass-capacity HDDs and margin expansion, but is exposed to hyperscaler capex cycles and earnings volatility [28] - NTAP is gaining from hybrid-cloud adoption and recurring revenue, but faces intense competition and slower growth compared to peers [28]

Remember Daft Punk's "Harder, Better, Faster, Stronger"? The market has focused on the "faster" factor (Nvidia's GPUs, for example), but it also needs "harder" factors: data, storage, and physical capacity. Without those, nothing works. Without Seagate, todayI’m a Portfolio manager (flexible equity funds and private clients), fundamental equity research, macro and geopolitical strategy.Over 10 years across global markets, managing multi-asset strategies and equity portfolios at a European asset manager.I co ...

每经AI快讯，2月25日，美股芯片存储板块盘前多数上涨，西部数据涨1%，希捷科技涨0.75%，美光科 技涨0.55%；闪迪跌0.45%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

February 24, 2026 06:27 PM GMT Global Technology AI boosts NAND demand, but Asian module maker margins may soon compress We see challenges for module makers with constrained supply, margin normalization, and weakening consumer SSD demand amid higher NAND prices. Phison and Longsys to EW. Memory supercycle – unequal beneficiaries: AI demand and tight supply have sharply shifted bargaining power across memory. Consensus EPS for the memory supply chain is up 279% YoY, versus 37% for our global tech coverage. S ...

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