The idea that software as a category is dead is ludicrous to me. I'm like, it's tough out there. It's going to be hard.Welcome to the technology industry. >> Now, today we have Mike Cannon Brooks, co-founder of Atlassian, joining us for my favorite show of the week. >> I just think we have to give up on TAM. We just have to let the revenue show us the path to TAM.Every category that I know of outside of engineering and product is at existential risk of shrinking seats. >> It's the venture capital equivalent ...

Mike Cannon-Brookes is the Co-Founder and Co-CEO of Atlassian, the software giant behind products like Jira, Confluence, and Trello. Under his leadership, Atlassian has become one of the world’s most successful enterprise software companies, serving over 250,000 customers globally. Jason Lemkin is one of the leading SaaS investors of the last decade with a portfolio including the likes of Algolia, Talkdesk, Owner, RevenueCat, Saleloft and more. Rory O’Driscoll is a General Partner @ Scale where he has led i ...

Core Viewpoint - Atlassian Corporation (NASDAQ:TEAM) is considered one of the most oversold stocks on NASDAQ, with various analysts adjusting their price targets while maintaining positive ratings, indicating a belief in the company's solid fundamentals despite sector challenges [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Target Adjustments - Citi adjusted the price target for Atlassian to $160 from $210, citing "sector turmoil" but maintaining a Buy rating due to sound fundamentals [1]. - Morgan Stanley revised the price target to $290 from $320, keeping an Overweight rating, noting no signs of AI disruption in fiscal Q2 and highlighting positive momentum in Atlassian's AI initiatives [2]. - Bernstein also lowered the price target to $290 from $304 while maintaining an Outperform rating, indicating a good fiscal Q2 performance but acknowledging near-term operational complexities related to GenAI concerns [3]. Group 2: Company Overview - Atlassian Corporation specializes in team collaboration and productivity software, offering products such as Jira Software, Confluence, Jira Service Management, and Loom [4].

Core Insights - The S&P North American Technology Software Index has declined by 20% in 2026, driven by investor concerns over the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on enterprise software tools [1] - Atlassian's stock has experienced a significant drop of 39% in 2026 and is down 80% from its peak in 2021, indicating severe market pressure [2] - Despite stock performance, Atlassian's annualized revenue has reached a record high, suggesting that the negative market sentiment may be exaggerated [3] Company Overview - Atlassian offers software products aimed at enhancing organizational productivity through improved collaboration and streamlined workflows [2] - The company's main products, Jira and Confluence, are increasingly being adopted by non-technical departments, expanding their usage beyond software development teams [4] AI Integration - Atlassian launched an AI platform named Rovo in 2024, which enhances Jira and Confluence with advanced search capabilities and integration with third-party applications [5] - Rovo facilitates collaboration among employees through a chat function and allows the creation of custom AI agents for specific tasks, demonstrating its versatility [6] - As of the end of Atlassian's fiscal 2026 second quarter, Rovo has achieved over 5 million monthly active users, marking a significant milestone for a product that is less than two years old [6]

Core Viewpoint - Atlassian Corporation (NASDAQ:TEAM) is recognized as one of the best beaten-down growth stocks to buy, despite a slight reduction in its target price by Bernstein due to concerns over the impact of artificial intelligence on the company [1]. Financial Performance - Atlassian's Q2-2026 results showed a revenue growth acceleration to 23.3% year-over-year, reaching a total quarterly revenue of $1.59 billion, up from 20.6% in Q1-2026 [2]. - The data center and marketplace segments contributed significantly to this acceleration, with growth rates of 20.4% (up from 11.0% in Q1-2026) and 9.1% (up from 3.3% in Q1-2026) year-over-year, respectively. The cloud segment maintained steady growth at 26.0% year-over-year [2]. Future Guidance - Following the strong performance in Q2, Atlassian's management has raised its revenue growth guidance for FY2026 to an average of approximately 22%, with specific segment expectations of 24.3% for Cloud, 20.0% for Data Center, and 6.0% for Marketplace [3]. Company Overview - Atlassian Corporation is a software-as-a-service company specializing in team collaboration and productivity software, including products like Jira, Confluence, and Loom. The company is headquartered in San Francisco, California, and was founded in October 2002 by Michael Cannon-Brookes and Scott Farquhar [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent internal rotation in the U.S. stock market, highlighting a shift from a few large-cap stocks leading the market to a broader participation across various sectors, while also addressing the impact of AI on traditional business models and the resulting market volatility [5][7][8]. Market Performance - On Tuesday, the S&P 500 fell by approximately 0.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by about 0.1%, reaching a new historical high [5]. - The equal-weighted S&P index also reached a record high, indicating a shift in market dynamics with around 300 stocks in the S&P 500 rising [7]. Retail Sales Data - The U.S. Commerce Department reported that December retail sales were flat month-over-month, significantly below the expected 0.4% growth, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [9]. - Core retail sales, excluding autos and gas, even showed a decline, reflecting weakened consumer spending momentum during the holiday season [9]. Interest Rate Expectations - The weak retail data led to a rise in U.S. Treasury prices and a decline in yields, with the futures market increasing the probability of three rate cuts within the year, with two already priced in [9]. - Historical trends suggest that rate cut expectations typically support risk assets, but the current market shows a divergence where rates are falling but stocks are not rising, particularly in the tech sector [11]. AI Impact on Market Sentiment - Market participants are shifting their interpretation of AI's impact from a growth narrative to concerns about short-term disruptions, leading to a "sell first, think later" mentality [12]. - Investors are moving from an "AI is a panacea" mindset to a more pragmatic "performance realization" phase, anticipating greater differentiation between winners and losers in the market [12]. Institutional Perspectives - There is a noticeable divergence in institutional views on the tech sector, with Goldman Sachs warning about the risks of overestimating AI's growth potential and emphasizing the need for actual earnings and cash flow improvements to support tech valuations [13]. - UBS downgraded its rating on the U.S. tech sector from "overweight" to "neutral," citing key risks while still acknowledging the long-term potential of AI [14]. Wealth Management Sector - The wealth management sector has come under scrutiny following the launch of an AI tool by Altruist Corp., which automates tasks traditionally reliant on human expertise, raising concerns about the core revenue models of wealth management firms [17][18]. - The market reacted sharply, with significant declines in stocks of major wealth management firms, indicating fears about the long-term competitive structure of the industry under AI pressure [19][21]. Broader Market Reactions - The sell-off in the market has been attributed to fears that AI tools could undermine the intermediary value of insurance brokers, leading to a significant drop in the insurance brokerage sector [22]. - The recent downturn in the software sector has seen substantial market capitalization losses, with estimates indicating a combined loss of approximately $611 billion across software, financial services, and asset management sectors [26]. Conclusion - The current market environment reflects a transition from viewing AI as a beneficiary narrative to recognizing potential victims, with traditional software companies facing heightened scrutiny and volatility [27]. - The article suggests that this phase serves as a valuation and business model stress test, prompting a reevaluation of which revenue models are based on irreplaceable value versus those reliant on information asymmetry [34].

Core Viewpoint - Software stocks have experienced a significant sell-off, but not all are considered good investment opportunities, with specific recommendations for buying and avoiding certain stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Axon Enterprise (Buy Recommendation) - Axon Enterprise has seen its stock decline approximately 50% from its peak six months ago and 25% from two weeks ago, making it a potential buy [4]. - The company combines hardware and software, creating a resilient ecosystem that retains customers, particularly law enforcement agencies, which are less likely to develop custom AI software [5][7]. - Axon is expected to grow rapidly, with projected revenue growth of 31% for 2025, reaching $2.74 billion, despite a high price-to-sales ratio of 14 [8]. Group 2: Atlassian (Avoid Recommendation) - Atlassian has a large customer base, including over 350,000 customers and 80% of the Fortune 500, but its stock has dropped 72% over the past year due to AI-related fears [9][10]. - The company reported a 23% revenue growth to $1.6 billion in the fiscal second quarter, but it has been GAAP unprofitable for the last 10 years, raising concerns about its long-term viability [10][14]. - Atlassian's products are seen as vulnerable to AI disruption, and the company has been heavily reliant on share-based compensation, which could dilute shareholder value [13][15].

Core Viewpoint - Atlassian Corporation (NASDAQ:TEAM) is identified as a potential undervalued stock, having experienced a significant decline of over 70% from its 52-week high, primarily due to concerns about the impact of AI on coding jobs. However, the company reported strong quarterly results, indicating a positive outlook for the stock [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Atlassian develops collaboration and productivity software aimed at connecting teams and streamlining workflows [2]. - The company primarily targets software developers with its products [1]. Group 2: Market Performance - Atlassian's stock has been severely impacted, down over 70% from its peak, reflecting market concerns regarding the future of coding jobs in the face of AI advancements [1]. - Despite the stock's decline, the recent quarterly report showed a significant beat and raise, suggesting potential recovery and growth opportunities [1]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - While Atlassian is viewed as a potential investment, there are opinions that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential with less downside risk [2].

Summary of the Conference Call on Software Industry and AI Impact Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Software industry in North America, particularly the impact of Generative AI (GenAI) on enterprise software capabilities and market dynamics [1][6]. Key Insights 1. **Impact of GenAI on Software**: - GenAI is expanding the capabilities of enterprise software, creating both opportunities and risks for investors [1][8]. - The potential for GenAI to automate a significant portion of unstructured data work (over 80% of organizational data) could add approximately $400 billion to the Enterprise Software Total Addressable Market (TAM) by 2028 [3][8]. 2. **Market Valuation Trends**: - There has been a ~33% pullback in software multiples since October 2025, with current averages around 4.4X EV/Sales, similar to levels seen during previous periods of uncertainty (2014-2016) [8][39]. - The software industry is currently trading at multiples that are 40% below the trailing 5-year average, indicating potential undervaluation [63][68]. 3. **CIO Insights**: - In a recent CIO survey, AI/ML spending is expected to grow to 9.2% of overall public cloud spending within three years, reflecting strong interest in AI capabilities [12][32]. - CIOs have consistently ranked AI/ML as a top priority for IT budgets over the past nine quarters [10][12]. 4. **Competitive Landscape**: - Concerns exist regarding competition from DIY solutions, startups, and model providers, which may erode the market share of incumbent software vendors [17][20]. - However, incumbent vendors are expected to leverage their existing capabilities and customer relationships to adapt and thrive in the evolving landscape [21][24]. 5. **Business Model and Margin Risks**: - The shift towards automation may necessitate changes in pricing models, as traditional seat-based pricing could become less effective [22][24]. - Rising competition and increased infrastructure costs associated with GenAI could pressure margins for software vendors [24][25]. Notable Companies and Investment Opportunities - **Microsoft (MSFT)**: Positioned as a leader in the GenAI space, with a strong adoption rate of its AI tools among CIOs [55]. - **Intuit (INTU)**: Expected to continue its growth trajectory with strong product cycles and margin expansion [55]. - **Salesforce (CRM)**: Benefiting from significant growth in AI-related annual recurring revenue (ARR) [55]. - **ServiceNow (NOW)**: Anticipated to see improvements in free cash flow and margin expansion [55]. - **Atlassian (TEAM)**: Despite perceived risks, it is viewed as undervalued with strong growth potential [56]. - **Snowflake (SNOW)**: Expected to benefit from ongoing data modernization trends [58]. - **Palo Alto Networks (PANW)**: Positioned well in the cybersecurity space, benefiting from increased demand due to GenAI [60]. Conclusion - The software industry is at a pivotal moment, with GenAI presenting both challenges and opportunities. While current market valuations suggest potential for recovery, the ability of incumbents to adapt and innovate will be crucial in determining future success [1][8][39].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that high uncertainty has significantly impacted software valuation multiples, which have declined by approximately 33% since October 2025 [2] Group 1: Software Valuation - The average software valuation multiple has returned to around 4.4 times enterprise value/sales, reflecting levels seen during previous periods of high uncertainty in the public cloud sector [3] - Investors are underestimating the ability of existing vendors to benefit from AI adoption [3] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that pessimistic views on generative AI have led to a lack of trust in the ability of existing software vendors to participate in this innovation cycle [4] - Morgan Stanley identifies Microsoft, ServiceNow, Salesforce, Atlassian, Snowflake, Cloudflare, Shopify, and Palo Alto Networks as attractive investment opportunities due to their strong product cycles, improved financial metrics, and discounted valuations [4] - Microsoft is noted as a key player in significant innovation cycles, while the valuation of ServiceNow is described as "very attractive" [4] - Salesforce's AI-related annual recurring revenue has increased by 114% year-over-year [4] - Shopify is viewed as highly capable of capturing a larger share of the expanding online commerce market [4] Group 3: Long-term Opportunities - Generative AI represents a significant long-term opportunity, with an estimated potential to add approximately $400 billion to the broader enterprise software total addressable market by 2028 [5] - The key issue is not whether software will ultimately monetize in this innovation cycle, but rather which companies will participate [6]