Group 1 - The software stock downturn of 2026 may be indicative of a larger trend, similar to the impact of the internet on the newspaper industry in the early 2000s [1][2] - Historical examples show that share price stability in industries facing disruption requires stable earnings outlooks, as seen with newspapers which experienced a 95% decline in share prices from 2002 to 2009 [2] - The decline in newspaper stocks ended when earnings estimates bottomed, and the uncertainty surrounding AI's impact on software companies suggests that near-term earnings will be critical indicators of business resilience [3] Group 2 - Major software companies like Salesforce, Workday, and SAP are perceived to have their terminal values threatened by advancements in AI [4] - The recent debut of AI developer Anthropic and its automation capabilities has contributed to a significant decline in shares of various software companies, with no clear positive catalysts emerging to attract investors [8] - Software stocks are underperforming the Nasdaq Composite by the largest margin this century, with notable declines including 27% for Oracle and Salesforce, and a 41% drop for Figma [9] Group 3 - The software sector typically outperforms the S&P once it finds a bottom, but the extent of the current downturn remains uncertain, with no immediate solutions to shift investor sentiment [10]

Core Insights - The analyst previously held a hold rating for Thomson Reuters Corporation (TRI) due to concerns about the FY2026 growth outlook, particularly in the CP and LP segments [1] - The investment approach emphasizes understanding core business economics, including competitive moat, unit economics, reinvestment runway, and management quality, which are crucial for long-term free cash flow generation and shareholder value creation [1] - The analyst focuses on sectors with strong secular tailwinds and aims to provide accessible and analytical insights to help readers identify high-quality, long-term investment opportunities [1] Company and Industry Summary - Thomson Reuters Corporation is facing headwinds in its CP and LP segments, impacting its growth outlook for FY2026 [1] - The investment strategy is centered on identifying businesses with potential for scaling and unlocking significant terminal value over time [1] - The analyst's background includes 10 years of self-education in investing, currently managing personal funds sourced from friends and family [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the potential investment opportunities in financial and legal software companies that are threatened by AI disruption, particularly those with strong market positions and integrated solutions within client operations [2]. Group 1: Investment Focus - The investment service iREIT+HOYA Capital specializes in income-producing asset classes, aiming to provide sustainable portfolio income, diversification, and inflation hedging [1][2]. - The service offers investment research on various asset classes, including REITs, ETFs, closed-end funds, preferred stocks, and dividend champions, targeting dividend yields of up to 10% [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The current market environment presents bargain opportunities for companies with robust competitive advantages, especially those that have established deep integration within their clients' workflows [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent sell-off in global software stocks, termed "SaaSpocalypse," triggered by the launch of Anthropic's Claude Cowork, which poses a significant challenge to traditional SaaS business models by offering high-level results at lower costs [5][10]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On February 4, major software companies experienced significant stock declines, with Thomson Reuters dropping 15.8%, LegalZoom nearly 20%, and Salesforce and Workday also seeing notable decreases [5]. - The S&P 500 Software and Services Index fell nearly 13% over five trading days, marking a 26% drop from its October peak [5]. - The sell-off is compared to a previous market panic caused by DeepSeek, highlighting the similarities in market reactions to disruptive AI technologies [7][10]. Group 2: Comparison of Two Market Panics - The panic caused by Cowork is expected to be more prolonged than that of DeepSeek, as Cowork represents a novel AI application, while DeepSeek was a cheaper alternative to existing models [10]. - The market's response to both events shows a pattern of overreaction, with analysts suggesting that the fears may be exaggerated [9][10]. - Cowork's impact has spread beyond the U.S. to global markets, affecting stocks in London, Tokyo, and India, indicating a broader concern within the tech industry [11]. Group 3: SaaS Pricing Models and Challenges - Traditional SaaS pricing models are under pressure, with many companies shifting from fixed pricing to usage-based models due to increased efficiency and cost-cutting measures [14][15]. - The average SaaS company in the PricingSaaS 500 index has experienced 3.6 pricing changes per year, with a significant increase in companies adopting usage-based pricing [15]. - Companies like Salesforce have struggled with pricing strategies, leading to a transition from fixed pricing to more flexible models to accommodate rising operational costs [15][17]. Group 4: Emergence of AI-Native Startups - AI-native startups are gaining traction, with their revenue growth rates significantly outpacing traditional SaaS companies, highlighting a shift in enterprise spending towards these new players [18]. - For instance, companies like Harvey and Glean have achieved valuations of $5 billion and $7.25 billion, respectively, indicating strong investor interest in AI-driven solutions [18]. - The article notes that AI-native companies are expected to capture over half of enterprise AI spending, reflecting a fundamental change in the software landscape [18]. Group 5: Vibe Coding and Its Implications - The rise of Vibe Coding could lead enterprises to create their own tools rather than relying on third-party SaaS products, potentially disrupting traditional software markets [20][21]. - If Vibe Coding matures, it may enable employees to develop solutions quickly, reducing reliance on complex software development processes [21]. - The article suggests that traditional software companies may face a "three-step path to extinction" if they fail to adapt to these emerging trends [22].

Core Insights - The article discusses the shift in investment focus from hardware suppliers to experience-driven companies in the tech sector, particularly in the context of the iPhone and artificial intelligence [1][3][22] Group 1: iPhone Supplier Dynamics - Companies like Skyworks Solutions, Cirrus Logic, and Universal Display saw stock price surges when named as iPhone suppliers, but Apple often imposed low prices and high quality demands, leading to profitability challenges for these suppliers [2] - The real beneficiaries of the iPhone boom were companies providing services and experiences, such as Uber and ByteDance, which have outperformed traditional hardware suppliers [3] Group 2: Current AI Market Trends - A recent selloff in AI infrastructure companies, including chipmakers and data center developers, occurred due to concerns over profitability in a rapidly evolving industry [4] - Analyst Louis Navellier warns of a potential market dislocation for AI companies, suggesting that expectations for "Stage 1" infrastructure firms are overly optimistic [5] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in AI - A select group of "Stage 2" companies in the AI sector is believed to offer significant upside potential, with estimates of around 500% growth [6] - Thomson Reuters, with its established legal research platform, is expected to recover from a 60% selloff, as it combines AI with human expertise to maintain accuracy in legal research [9][14] - ServiceNow, which serves over 85% of Fortune 500 companies, is experiencing rapid growth with a 21% revenue increase in 2025 and projected 20% growth for the current year, driven by its AI capabilities [15][16] Group 4: Comparisons with 5G Technology - The article draws parallels between the 5G technology rollout and the current AI landscape, noting that the biggest winners are not the infrastructure providers but the companies leveraging these technologies for consumer experiences [20][21] - OpenAI's GPT-5 is highlighted as a significant advancement in AI, similar to the leap made by 5G, with the potential for "Stage 2" companies to dominate the market [22][23]

Core Insights - Thomson Reuters Corp. reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results with revenue of $2.009 billion, a 5% increase year-over-year, exceeding the $2.001 billion estimate [1] - Organic revenue rose 7%, driven by 9% growth in its "Big 3" segments: Legal Professionals, Corporates, and Tax and Accounting Professionals [1] - GAAP diluted earnings per share decreased 43% to 74 cents from $1.30, while adjusted EPS increased 6% to $1.07, surpassing the $1.06 estimate [1] Financial Performance - Operating profit fell 25% to $540 million, mainly due to prior-year gains related to the sale of FindLaw [2] - Revenue growth included a 6% rise in recurring revenue, which constituted 84% of total revenue, and an 11% increase in transaction revenue, offset by a 6% decline in Global Print [3] - Adjusted EBITDA rose 8% to $777 million, with the margin improving to 38.7% from 37.6% [3] - Net cash from operations increased 35% to $756 million, and free cash flow grew 38% to $581 million [3] Segment Performance - Legal Professionals unit revenue grew 1% to $738 million, with organic growth reaching 9% driven by Westlaw, CoCounsel, and Practical Law; adjusted EBITDA rose 9% to $327 million, with a margin of 44.3% [4] - Corporates revenue increased 7% to $496 million, despite negative impacts from the sale of non-core businesses, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 32.2% and organic revenue growth of 9% [5] - Tax & Accounting Professionals' revenue climbed 13% to $414 million, supported by the SafeSend acquisition, with organic growth at 11% and adjusted EBITDA jumping 14% to $222 million, resulting in a margin of 53.6% [6] - Reuters News revenue increased 6% (5% organic) to $232 million, driven by higher generative AI-related transactional content licensing revenue and a price increase from a news agreement with LSEG [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent selloff in software, media, and information company stocks is seen as a potential buying opportunity, despite the panic triggered by new AI tools from Anthropic, which are perceived as a threat to companies not involved in physical goods [1]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On Tuesday, stocks of companies like Salesforce, Reddit, and Thomson Reuters experienced significant declines due to the introduction of new AI tools [1]. - The market interpreted the launch of these AI tools as an existential threat to software and media companies, leading to widespread panic selling [1]. Group 2: Investment Outlook - The article suggests that the current panic in software stocks may present a buying opportunity for investors willing to look beyond the immediate market reaction [1]. - The long-term potential of software companies remains intact, and the current downturn may be temporary [1].

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of a legal plugin by Anthropic for its Claude Cowork AI has significantly impacted the legal software sector, leading to a sharp decline in stock prices for several companies in this space, indicating increased competition and investor concern about the implications of AI on traditional legal services [4][5][6]. Group 1: Impact on Legal Software Stocks - The release of Anthropic's legal plugin triggered a sell-off in stocks related to legal and data services, with many stocks experiencing declines of over 15% [4][6]. - On the day of the sell-off, the total market value lost in the software, financial services, and asset management sectors was approximately $285 billion [6]. - Companies such as LegalZoom.com saw a nearly 20% drop, while Thomson Reuters and other legal information giants also faced significant declines [6][11]. Group 2: Market Position of Claude AI - Claude has emerged as a preferred tool for legal and financial professionals in conducting analysis, highlighting its competitive position in the AI market [8]. - The legal tools provided by Anthropic claim to automate tasks such as contract review and legal briefs, which are core functions of many legal software products [10]. Group 3: Traditional Legal Information Giants Under Pressure - Companies like LegalZoom, RELX, and Thomson Reuters, which operate in the legal information sector, are facing challenges due to the advancements in AI technology [11][12]. - The introduction of AI tools by startups like Legora and Harvey AI has already begun to disrupt the legal industry, with significant investments flowing into AI products for legal applications [12]. Group 4: Broader Software Industry Concerns - The software sector has been under scrutiny for several months as investors remain cautious about the potential risks posed by AI advancements [13]. - Recent data indicates that only 71% of software companies in the S&P 500 have exceeded revenue expectations this earnings season, compared to 85% for the broader tech industry, suggesting underperformance in the software sector [15].

Shares of Amazon, which had announced a $200 billion capital expenditure outlay, slid 7% on Friday, while Alphabet lost 3% after the company said on Wednesday that capital spending could double this year. Meta Platforms was down ‌1.3%. Other heavyweight technology ‌companies, however, were trading higher: Nvidia rose 7%, Microsoft gained 1% and Tesla was up 4%. The benchmark S&P 500 added 1.6% while the Nasdaq rose 2% although both indexes are set to ‌finish the week lower. "The market's viewpoint is that ...

Core Insights - Thomson Reuters is a global leader in business information services, operating in segments such as Legal Professionals, Corporates, and Tax and Accounting Professionals, competing with major players like Bloomberg and RELX Group [1] - The company reported a 5% increase in revenue for Q4 fiscal 2025, reaching $2.009 billion, surpassing estimates [2][6] - Despite a 43% decline in GAAP diluted earnings per share, adjusted EPS rose by 6% to $1.07, exceeding the estimate of $1.06 [2][6] - Adjusted EBITDA improved by 8% to $777 million, with the margin increasing to 38.7% from 37.6% [4][6] Financial Performance - Operating profit fell by 25% to $540 million, primarily due to previous gains from the sale of FindLaw [3] - Recurring revenue increased by 6%, accounting for 84% of total revenue, while transaction revenue rose by 11% [3] - Net cash from operations surged by 35% to $756 million, and free cash flow also saw significant growth [4] Stock Performance - The current stock price of Thomson Reuters is $89.64, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.50% or $1.33 [5] - The stock has fluctuated between a low of $85.14 and a high of $90.07 today, with a market capitalization of approximately $39.89 billion [5]