February 19, 2026 05:01 AM GMT AI Infrastructure Identifying Key Beneficiaries Across the Natural Gas Value Chain from AI/Data Center Development M Leveraging the insights of AlphaWise, we estimate that AI data center development will drive +4.8 Bcf/d of incremental domestic natural gas demand by 2030, concentrated in Appalachia/PJM. We identify key beneficiaries across the natural gas value chain. Key Takeaways We introduce a new geospatial analysis of AI-driven data center development that provides increm ...

Group 1 - TC Energy (NYSE/TSX: TRP) is a midstream company that has not yet been reviewed, despite a bullish outlook on the energy infrastructure sector [1] - The energy infrastructure landscape experienced a significant structural shift in 2025 [1] - The focus is on analyzing undervalued and disliked companies or industries with strong fundamentals and good cash flows, particularly in sectors like Oil & Gas and consumer goods [1] Group 2 - Energy Transfer is highlighted as a company that was previously overlooked but has shown potential for substantial returns [1] - The investment strategy emphasizes long-term value investing while also considering deal arbitrage opportunities [1] - There is a preference for businesses that are easily understandable, avoiding high-tech and certain consumer goods sectors [1]

Canadian energy infrastructure companies Enbridge (ENB) and TC Energy (TRP) reported Q4 2025 results this past Friday, the last day of trading before the holiday weekend. The former’s standard deviation was 3.38 with a 3.94% gain on the day, while the latter’s standard deviation was 2.75 with a 3.49% gain. While neither share price gain was earth-shattering, both stocks saw share volumes significantly above their 30-day averages. More News from Barchart The cause of the gains: healthy Q4 2025 results r ...

Core Insights - TC Energy Corporation (TRP) reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of 70 cents per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 65 cents, driven by strong performance in its Canadian, U.S., and Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines segments, although down from 75 cents in the previous year due to weaker results in the Power and Energy Solutions segment [1][9] Financial Performance - Quarterly revenues reached $3 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by $55 million, but decreased by 16.9% year over year [2] - Comparable EBITDA increased to C$3 billion from C$2.6 billion in the prior year [2] - The board declared a 3.2% quarterly dividend hike to 87.75 Canadian cents per common share, translating to an annualized rate of C$3.51 [2] Segment Performance - Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines reported a comparable EBITDA of C$961 million, up 12.9% year-over-year, with deliveries averaging 27.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), a 5% increase [3] - U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines reported a comparable EBITDA of C$1,388 million, a 15.7% increase, with daily average flows of 29.6 Bcf/d, marking a 9.5% increase [4] - Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines reported a comparable EBITDA of C$397 million, up 69.7% year-over-year, with flows averaging 2.7 Bcf/d [5] - Power and Energy Solutions segment reported a comparable EBITDA of C$217 million, down 36.4% from the previous year, impacted by an extended outage [6] Expenditure and Balance Sheet - As of December 31, 2025, capital investments amounted to C$5.3 billion, with cash and cash equivalents of C$168 million and long-term debt of C$45.2 billion, resulting in a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 60% [7] 2026 Guidance - The company anticipates 2026 EBITDA to be between C$11.6 billion and C$11.8 billion, with plans for net capital spending of up to C$6 billion [9][10] - Management expects to place approximately C$4 billion of projects into service during the year, contributing to growth [11] - The company aims to fully allocate its C$6 billion annual net capital expenditure target through 2030, with potential for increased investment later in the decade [12]

We recently published an article titled 11 Best Canadian Growth Stocks to Buy According to Hedge Funds. On January 28, Morgan Stanley raised its price target on TC Energy Corporation (NYSE:TRP) to C$93 from C$92 while maintaining an Overweight rating, as part of a broader reassessment of North American midstream and renewable infrastructure equities. The firm noted strong sector performance amid favorable commodity pricing and constructive earnings results, supporting continued investor interest in high-q ...

Core Viewpoint - TC Energy Corporation (NYSE: TRP) has been downgraded by CIBC from Outperformer to Neutral, despite showing some positive stock movement following its Q4 2025 earnings call [1][5]. Financial Performance - TC Energy's Q4 2025 earnings call provided insights into its financial performance and strategic direction, which are crucial for investors [2][5]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately $66.12 billion, indicating a significant presence in the energy sector [4]. Stock Performance - Following the downgrade, TRP's stock price increased by approximately 3.49%, with a price change of $2.14 [3][5]. - On the day of the report, TRP reached a low of $61.28 and a high of $63.94, marking its highest price over the past year [3]. - The lowest price for TRP in the past year was $43.59 [3]. Market Activity - The trading volume for TRP is 3,341,838 shares, reflecting active investor interest in the stock [4].

Core Insights - TC Energy reported a strong fourth quarter with comparable EBITDA growth of 13% year over year, reaching nearly CAD 3 billion, driven by high delivery records in pipeline businesses and a focus on safety and operational excellence [3][8] - The company anticipates continued growth in 2025, with a 9% year-over-year increase in comparable EBITDA attributed to improved operational execution and safety performance [4][5] Financial Performance - EBITDA for Mexico increased by CAD 163 million, a 70% increase year over year, due to the completion of the Southeast Gateway project [2] - U.S. Natural Gas EBITDA rose by CAD 188 million, primarily from a Columbia Gas settlement and higher realized earnings in the natural gas marketing business [2] - TC Energy's fourth-quarter results included a reaffirmation of 2026 guidance of CAD 11.6–11.8 billion and 2028 guidance of CAD 12.6–13.1 billion, alongside a 3.2% increase in dividends [8][22] Project Execution and Capital Management - The company placed CAD 8.3 billion of projects into service in 2025, over 15% under budget, and shifted CAD 500 million of capital into 2026 to optimize returns [7][10] - TC Energy has a growth pipeline of approximately CAD 8 billion in high-conviction pending approval projects and CAD 12 billion in origination, with significant interest in the Columbia Gas project [6][15] Strategic Positioning and Market Demand - The company expects North American natural gas demand to increase by 45 Bcf/d from 2025 to 2035, driven by LNG exports and rising power generation needs [17] - TC Energy serves seven LNG facilities, representing 30% of North American LNG feed gas, and is positioned near 60% of projected U.S. data center growth [18] Bruce Power and Future Outlook - Bruce Power's availability is targeted in the low-90% range for 2026, with each available unit generating approximately CAD 1 million per day in revenue [20] - The company is engaged in pre-FEED work for Bruce C, with federal funding supporting current activities and expectations of significant cash flow post-MCR program completion [21][22]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - TC Energy reported a 13% year-over-year growth in comparable EBITDA for the fourth quarter, reaching nearly CAD 3 billion [13] - The company achieved a 9% year-over-year increase in comparable EBITDA for the full year 2025 [4] - The board declared a first quarter 2026 dividend of CAD 0.8775 per common share, marking a 3.2% year-over-year increase [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Canada, EBITDA increased by CAD 110 million due to higher incentive earnings and flow-through depreciation [14] - In the U.S., EBITDA rose by CAD 188 million, primarily from the Columbia Gas settlement and additional contract sales [14] - In Mexico, EBITDA increased by CAD 163 million, a 70% increase year-over-year, attributed to the completion of Southeast Gateway [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American natural gas demand is expected to increase by 45 Bcf/d from 2025 to 2035, equivalent to adding the entire European gas market over the next decade [5] - The company serves seven LNG facilities, representing 30% of North American LNG feed gas across Canada, the U.S., and Mexico [5] - Electricity demand in North America is projected to grow by 65% through 2050 [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - TC Energy's strategy focuses on maximizing asset value through safety and operational excellence while leveraging commercial and technological innovation, including AI [22] - The company aims to prioritize low-risk, high-return growth, with a target of CAD 6 billion in net annual capital expenditures through 2030 [22] - The company is optimizing its capital plan by shifting CAD 500 million of capital forward into 2026 to capture in-year EBITDA [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to deliver solid growth, low risk, and repeatable performance, supported by a strong project pipeline [23] - The company anticipates strong EBITDA momentum heading into 2026, with CAD 4 billion in projects expected to go into service [16] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining financial strength and agility to support long-term value creation [22] Other Important Information - The company advanced CAD 5 billion of projects at various stages in the fourth quarter and placed CAD 2 billion of assets into service on time and under budget [6] - The pending approval portfolio now sits at about CAD 8 billion, with an additional CAD 12 billion of projects in origination [9] - Bruce Power's availability is expected to improve to the low 90s% range for 2026, contributing to financial performance [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide insights on the balance sheet capacity for 2031? - Management indicated a deep pipeline of opportunities, with about CAD 12 billion in projects ranging from CAD 200 million to over CAD 1 billion [27] Question: What is the strategic rationale behind the Crossroads project? - The Crossroads expansion is primarily driven by power generation requirements, including data center demand and coal to gas switching [31] Question: Can you discuss the characteristics of the CAD 8 billion pending approval projects versus the CAD 12 billion in origination? - Pending projects are characterized as 90% or more likely to be sanctioned, while the origination projects are in earlier stages of development [57]

分组1 - TC Energy reported quarterly earnings of $0.7 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.65 per share, but down from $0.75 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +7.03% [1] - The company posted revenues of $2.99 billion for the quarter ended December 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.88%, and up from $2.56 billion year-over-year [2] - TC Energy shares have increased approximately 11.6% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has declined by 0.2% [3] 分组2 - The earnings outlook for TC Energy is crucial for investors, as it includes current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters and any recent changes to these expectations [4] - The estimate revisions trend for TC Energy was mixed ahead of the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) for the stock, indicating expected performance in line with the market [6] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.75 on revenues of $2.97 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $2.80 on revenues of $11.6 billion [7] 分组3 - The outlook for the Alternative Energy - Other industry, where TC Energy operates, is currently in the bottom 32% of over 250 Zacks industries, which may impact stock performance [8] - Another company in the same industry, FuelCell Energy, is expected to report a quarterly loss of $0.65 per share, with revenues projected to be $41.19 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 116.8% [9]

FOURTH QUARTER 2025 CONFERENCE CALL F e b r u a r y 1 3 , 2 0 2 6 T C E N E R G Y F O U R T H Q U A R T E R 2 0 2 5 C O N F E R E N C E C A L L CALL PARTICIPANTS François Poirier President and Chief Executive Officer Sean O'Donnell Executive Vice-President and Chief Financial Officer Tina Faraca Executive Vice-President and Chief Operating Officer, Natural Gas Pipelines Forward-looking information and non-GAAP/supplementary financial measures This presentation includes certain forward-looking information, i ...