Advertising Market Dynamics - The company relies heavily on advertising agencies and advertisers, with two holding companies representing over 10% of gross billings for 2025[80] - The demand for Connected TV (CTV) inventory has been a significant driver of growth, and the company expects this trend to continue[82] - The company faces intense competition in the advertising market, with new technologies and methods of buying advertising posing challenges[90] - The market for programmatic ad buying is relatively new and evolving, which could impact the company's growth prospects if it develops slower than expected[94] - Economic downturns and macroeconomic conditions could adversely affect the demand for advertising and the financial health of clients[84] - Changes in advertising budget allocations and marketing strategies could impact the company's client base and revenue generation[127] - The reliance on third-party cookies and identifiers for digital advertising may be restricted, adversely affecting revenue generation capabilities[118] - Increased scrutiny and transparency regarding data collection practices may lead to more users opting out, potentially reducing the effectiveness of targeted advertising[126] Technology and Innovation - The company has invested significantly in enhancing its programmatic television offering, including workforce expansion and new features[88] - The company is investing in its OpenPath offering to provide clients with direct connections to publishers, aiming to improve inventory access[86] - The introduction of new offerings utilizing AI and machine learning may raise technological, security, and legal risks, potentially affecting the reputation and demand for the company's platform[98] - The complexity of the platform requires significant training for new sales and client service personnel, impacting the ability to add new clients and increase sales[146] - The company is investing in technology and security services to mitigate potential security vulnerabilities as it expands its offerings[135] - The company regularly makes improvements to its platform to maintain competitiveness and may implement new offerings or engage in business transactions in the future[192] Financial Performance and Risks - The company may experience revenue growth that does not keep pace with increased spending on its platform due to pricing competition and other factors[96] - The company has limited visibility into future advertising revenue streams due to the non-exclusive nature of client relationships[76] - The company has limited access to quality advertising inventory, which is crucial for maintaining client retention and financial performance[85] - Fluctuations in operational results are expected due to various factors, including changes in demand for programmatic advertising and pricing dynamics[127] - The company may experience difficulties in forecasting future revenue, costs, and expenses due to external factors beyond its control[128] - The collections and payments cycle may increasingly consume working capital, impacting financial condition if borrowing terms are not favorable[151] - Disputes with clients over platform operations and billing could lead to write-offs for credit loss or revenue reductions, adversely affecting financial performance[152] - The company may not be able to secure additional financing on favorable terms, which could impair growth and lead to significant dilution for existing stockholders if additional equity is issued[199] - Tax liabilities may exceed expectations due to changing tax laws and potential audits, which could negatively impact financial condition and results of operations[200] Regulatory and Compliance Challenges - Compliance with evolving privacy and data protection laws may incur additional costs and require changes to the company's platform and business model, adversely affecting operations[104] - The global regulatory landscape regarding personal data privacy is evolving, with potential new legislation impacting the online advertising ecosystem and increasing compliance obligations[105] - State laws requiring businesses to honor consumer opt-out rights could reduce data availability, impacting the value of the company's offerings[107] - The GDPR imposes significant penalties for breaches, with fines up to €20 million or 4% of total worldwide annual turnover, necessitating substantial compliance efforts[111] - The company anticipates ongoing scrutiny and enforcement actions related to data privacy, which may increase operational costs and limit business expansion[108] - The company faces legal risks related to clients' adherence to data privacy laws, which could lead to adverse publicity and regulatory scrutiny if compliance is not met[113] - Adapting to evolving privacy obligations may incur substantial expenses and divert resources from other operations, potentially affecting business performance[114] - Regulatory changes regarding political advertising and data privacy could impose additional compliance costs and operational burdens[116] Cybersecurity and Data Protection - Cybersecurity risks threaten the confidentiality and integrity of user and client data, with unauthorized access potentially leading to significant reputational harm and legal liabilities[99] - The company experiences varying degrees of cyberattacks, necessitating ongoing investment in security measures, although absolute security cannot be guaranteed[100] - The company must navigate complex data residency and cross-border transfer restrictions, which may lead to operational changes and additional costs[112] - The company is subject to anti-bribery and anti-corruption laws, and non-compliance could result in criminal penalties, significant fines, and reputational harm[171] Growth and Expansion Strategies - The company plans to invest in technology development, expand into new channels like CTV, and explore strategic acquisitions to support growth[153] - International operations present additional risks, including regulatory compliance and economic challenges, which could adversely affect business performance[161] - The company is expanding internationally, but limited operating experience in foreign markets may hinder growth and increase operational risks[158] - Future acquisitions and strategic investments may disrupt the business and could involve risks such as regulatory hurdles and integration challenges, potentially harming financial condition and results of operations[196] Market and Stock Performance - The market price of the company's Class A common stock has historically experienced high volatility, influenced by various factors beyond operating performance[176] - Substantial future sales of common stock by directors or significant stockholders could lead to a decline in the market price of Class A common stock[178] - The dual-class structure of the company's common stock allows Class B stockholders to control approximately 49.9% of the voting power, limiting the influence of Class A stockholders on corporate matters[180] - The company’s governing documents may discourage takeover attempts and other corporate governance changes, potentially affecting stockholder rights[183] - The company has authorized a share repurchase program without an expiration date, but it does not guarantee the enhancement of long-term stockholder value or mitigate the dilutive effect of employee equity awards[190] Operational Challenges - Long sales cycles make it difficult to project when new clients will be obtained and when revenue will be generated from them[149] - The company faces payment-related risks, particularly from advertising agencies that may not pay until they receive payment from their advertisers, leading to potential credit risks[150] - Maintaining corporate culture during rapid expansion is crucial for innovation and effective operations, with potential risks to employee satisfaction and client service[164] - Operational, performance, and internal control issues could lead to negative publicity, damage to brand reputation, and loss of clients[134] - The company relies on third-party technology and systems, which may cause errors or failures in platform offerings[132] - Failure to meet standards and provide trusted services could harm the company's brand and reputation, affecting business and financial condition[136] - The company relies on third-party technology and services, and disruptions could negatively impact platform functionality and business operations[156] - The company may face challenges in enforcing proprietary rights, which could erode competitive advantages and harm business[165]

Core Insights - Four high-profile tech stocks have experienced significant declines between 23% and 37% in 2026, while the Nasdaq 100 remains nearly flat, indicating a potential disconnect between market performance and analyst expectations [1][16] - The stocks in question are The Trade Desk, Oracle, ServiceNow, and AppLovin, all of which have strong fundamentals and aggressive analyst price targets despite their recent selloffs [2] The Trade Desk - The Trade Desk's stock has dropped 37% year-to-date, currently trading at $23.95, with an analyst consensus price target of $36.73, suggesting an upside of over 53% [3][16] - The decline lacks an obvious earnings catalyst, as Q4 2025 revenue was $847 million, up 14% year-over-year, and operating income grew 11% to $157 million [4] - The stock is 67% below its level from one year ago, with a bullish analyst sentiment where 20 out of 38 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy [5] Oracle - Oracle's stock has decreased by 23% year-to-date, currently priced at $150.31, with a consensus target of $269.94, indicating an upside of approximately 80% [6][16] - The stock has fallen over 56% from its 52-week high of $345.72, trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages [7] - Oracle's cloud infrastructure growth is a key driver, with quarterly earnings growth of 91% year-over-year and a 32% operating margin, although concerns about debt and financing have emerged [8][9] ServiceNow - ServiceNow's stock has dropped 29% year-to-date, currently at $109.30, with an analyst consensus target of $190.50, implying an upside of roughly 74% [10][16] - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of $3.41 billion, up 22% year-over-year, and raised its full-year guidance, indicating strong financial performance [11] - The stock is 42% below its level from one year ago, with a focus on its AI platform and strategic partnerships, although it trades at a trailing P/E of 64x [12] AppLovin - AppLovin's stock has fallen 34% year-to-date, currently priced at $444.93, with a consensus target of $661.59, suggesting an upside of about 49% [13][16] - The company reported exceptional Q4 2025 results, with revenue of $1.66 billion, up 66% year-over-year, and net income of $1.10 billion, up 84% [14] - Despite strong fundamentals, the stock's decline appears driven by valuation concerns and broader market sentiment, with a beta of 2.49 indicating high volatility [15] Summary of Performance Across All Four Stocks - The Trade Desk: Current Price $23.95, Analyst Target $36.73, Implied Upside ~53%, YTD Performance -37%, Analyst Buy % 53% [16] - Oracle: Current Price $150.31, Analyst Target $269.94, Implied Upside ~80%, YTD Performance -23%, Analyst Buy % 73% [16] - ServiceNow: Current Price $109.30, Analyst Target $190.50, Implied Upside ~74%, YTD Performance -29%, Analyst Buy % 91% [16] - AppLovin: Current Price $444.93, Analyst Target $661.59, Implied Upside ~49%, YTD Performance -34%, Analyst Buy % 86% [16]

The Trade Desk's ( TTD ) share price remains under pressure and is now down over 70% from its all-time highs. This includes a more than 16% drop after the company gave weak guidance in its Q4 earnings, althoughRichard Durant is the leader of Narweena, an asset manager focused on finding market dislocations that are the result of a poor understanding of a businesses long-term prospects. Narweena believes that excess risk adjusted returns can be achieved by identifying businesses with secular growth opportuni ...

Group 1 - The Trade Desk's share price has decreased over 70% from its all-time highs, including a more than 16% drop following weak Q4 earnings guidance [1] - Narweena, an asset manager led by Richard Durant, focuses on identifying market dislocations due to poor long-term business prospects, aiming for excess risk-adjusted returns through secular growth opportunities in markets with entry barriers [1] - Narweena's investment strategy emphasizes company and industry fundamentals to uncover unique insights, with a high risk appetite and a long-term horizon targeting deeply undervalued stocks, particularly in smaller cap markets [1] Group 2 - The aging population, low population growth, and stagnating productivity growth are expected to create new investment opportunities, contrasting with past trends [1] - Many industries may experience stagnation or secular decline, which could paradoxically enhance business performance due to reduced competition [1] - The economy is increasingly influenced by asset-light businesses, leading to a declining need for infrastructure investments, resulting in a large pool of capital pursuing limited investment opportunities, thus driving up asset prices and compressing risk premia over time [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Trade Desk has experienced a significant decline in stock value and revenue growth, attributed primarily to increased competition, particularly from Amazon [1][5][10] Company Performance - The Trade Desk's stock has fallen 83% from its peak in late 2024, marking its weakest growth rate ever, except for a brief dip during the pandemic [2] - Revenue growth has consistently slowed over the past year, with Q4 2024 at 22%, Q1 2025 at 25%, Q2 2025 at 19%, Q3 2025 at 18%, and Q4 2025 at 14% [3] - Management anticipates revenue growth to slow further, projecting at least $678 million in revenue for the first quarter, equating to just 10% growth [3] Competitive Landscape - The Trade Desk's challenges are largely attributed to competition, particularly from Amazon's new demand-side platform (DSP), which enhances usability and reduces campaign setup time by 75% [5][6] - Amazon has gained market share in retail media and Connected TV, leveraging its extensive customer data and streaming platform to attract advertisers [6] Market Context - The Trade Desk's management has identified weaknesses among consumer packaged goods (CPG) and auto advertisers, which constitute 25% of its business, as contributing factors to its revenue challenges [8] - In contrast, leading digital advertising platforms like Google, Meta, and Amazon reported robust growth in the fourth quarter, with Google at 13.6%, Meta at 24.3%, and Amazon at 23% [9] Investment Outlook - The current price-to-earnings ratio for The Trade Desk stands at 27, suggesting a reasonable valuation, but a turnaround in performance is not guaranteed [9][10] - Investors are advised to wait for revenue growth to stabilize before considering investment in The Trade Desk, as the stock may still decline further [10]

Key Takeaways The Trade Desk fell 15% after weak Q1 guidance overshadowed strong Q4 and full-year 2025 results.TTD posted Q4 revenues of $847M, up 14%, with 95% retention and $1.4B in share repurchases.Margin pressure, lower Q1 outlook, stock compensation and interim CFO weigh on near-term sentiment.The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) stock plummeted 15% in after-hours trading on Wednesday, even after reporting strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results. Investors focused on its weaker first-quarter guidance, ...

About this content About Angela Harmantas Angela Harmantas is an Editor at Proactive. She has over 15 years of experience covering the equity markets in North America, with a particular focus on junior resource stocks. Angela has reported from numerous countries around the world, including Canada, the US, Australia, Brazil, Ghana, and South Africa for leading trade publications. Previously, she worked in investor relations and led the foreign direct investment program in Canada for the Swedish government ...

The stock of The Trade Desk, Inc. ( TTD ) offers us a cautionary tale into why we must not be too eager in trying to catch theJR Research is an opportunistic investor. I was recognized by TipRanks as a Top Analyst, and also by Seeking Alpha as a "Top Analyst To Follow" for Technology, Software, and Internet, as well as for Growth and GARP. I identify attractive risk/reward opportunities supported by robust price action to potentially generate alpha well above the S&P 500. My picks have consistently demonstr ...

The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD) stock tumbled 6.2% through 9:50 a.m. ET Thursday, despite beating analyst targets for both sales and earnings last night. Analysts forecast The Trade Desk to earn $0.34 per share on sales of $841.2 million in Q4. TTD actually earned $0.59 per share on sales of $847 million. Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need ...

华尔街最受关注、最能影响市场走势的研究评级现已汇总于此。以下是由《The Fly》整理的、投资者 需了解的今日机构评级变动。 重点上调评级 责任编辑：郭明煜 华尔街最受关注、最能影响市场走势的研究评级现已汇总于此。以下是由《The Fly》整理的、投资者 需了解的今日机构评级变动。 重点上调评级 Arete 将 Spotify（SPOT） 评级从中性上调至买入，目标价 586 美元。该机构认为公司付费会员 业务毛利率持续改善，且 Spotify 面临的 AI 颠覆风险极小。 Arete 将 Spotify（SPOT） 评级从中性上调至买入，目标价 586 美元。该机构认为公司付费会员 业务毛利率持续改善，且 Spotify 面临的 AI 颠覆风险极小。 TD Cowen 在投资者日之后，将 纳斯达克（NDAQ） 评级从持有上调至买入，目标价从 105 美元 上调至 106 美元。理由是近期股价回调，且对纳斯达克平台（尤其金融科技板块）的可持续性更 有信心。 富国银行将 爱尔康（ALC） 评级从持平上调至超配，目标价从 88 美元上调至 97 美元。认为其 2026 年业绩指引存在上行空间，新产品周期正开始推动 ...