Group 1 - The analyst has over a decade of experience researching various companies across different sectors, including commodities like oil, natural gas, gold, and copper, as well as technology firms such as Google and Nokia [1] - The analyst has transitioned from writing a blog to creating a value investing-focused YouTube channel, where extensive research on hundreds of companies has been conducted [1] - The analyst expresses a particular interest in covering metals and mining stocks, while also being comfortable with other industries like consumer discretionary/staples, REITs, and utilities [1]

Core Insights - Citigroup has submitted its 13F holdings report to the SEC for the fourth quarter ending December 31, 2025, indicating a portfolio primarily focused on U.S. stocks and ETFs, with some allocation to options and debt instruments [1][2]. Holdings Summary - The largest holding in Citigroup's portfolio is NVIDIA (NVDA), accounting for 3.04% of the total [1][2]. - The second-largest holding is the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), representing 2.56% of the portfolio [1][2]. - Microsoft (MSFT) ranks third with a 2.53% allocation [1][2]. - Other significant positions include iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF put options (IWM) at 2.05% and Tesla (TSLA) put options at 2.02% [1][2]. New Positions - Citigroup has added several debt and convertible securities in Q4, including positions in Evercore Energy (EVRG), Snowflake (SNOW), Nutanix (NTNX), Align Technology (ALGN), Mara Holdings (MARA), and IonQ Inc (IONQ), with individual additions generally ranging from 5 million to 13 million shares [3]. - A notable new position is in the energy company Total (TTE), with approximately 6.86 million shares valued at about $448 million, representing 0.20% of the portfolio [3]. Exits and Reductions - Citigroup has completely exited several small-cap and illiquid stocks, primarily in healthcare, consumer discretionary, finance, and industrial sectors, including MHUAF, REVB, KEQU, BYFC, CSWC, RDI, and RAIN, reducing these holdings to zero [4][5]. - The firm has significantly reduced its positions in financial stocks, notably decreasing its stake in Bank of America (BAC) by approximately 29.29 million shares, a reduction of 54.86%, lowering its portfolio share from 1.23% to 0.59% [8][9]. Increases in Holdings - Citigroup has notably increased its holdings in the Consumer Staples ETF (XLP), raising its position by approximately 17.63 million shares, increasing its portfolio share from 0.18% to 0.78% [6][7]. - The firm has also significantly increased its positions in various debt and preferred securities, including Akamai (AKAM), JD.com (JD), CMS Energy (CMS), JetBlue Airways (JBLU), and others, with increases generally in the range of 7 million to 12 million shares [6][7]. Summary of Changes - Citigroup has made substantial reductions in options positions, including a 42.31% decrease in iShares iBoxx High Yield Bond ETF put options (HYG) and a reduction of over 90% in the industrial sector ETF put options (XLI) [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - TotalEnergies is positioned as a strong investment opportunity due to its diversified portfolio, consistent cash returns, and strategic long-term contracts in renewable energy, despite facing some downward revisions in earnings estimates for the upcoming quarters [14]. Financial Performance - Annual sales are approximately $195.6 billion, resulting in a net income of about $15.8 billion, with earnings per share (EPS) of $7.07 and quarterly earnings of $1.77 as of October 30, 2025 [1]. - Adjusted net income for Q3 2025 remained at $4.0 billion, despite a year-over-year decline in oil prices, while cash flow increased by 4% to $7.1 billion [1]. - Exploration & Production segment reported $2.2 billion in adjusted net operating income and $4.0 billion in cash flow, reflecting increases of 10% and 6% sequentially [7]. Dividend and Valuation - The company offers a forward dividend yield of 5.2%, having raised its payout for three consecutive years, although this yield is below the energy sector average of approximately 4.24% [2][5]. - TotalEnergies trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 11.14x, which is lower than the sector average of 14.86x, indicating a potential discount [3]. Strategic Partnerships and Contracts - TotalEnergies has signed long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with Google to deliver 1 gigawatt of solar capacity, translating to 28 terawatt-hours of renewable electricity over 15 years [4]. - The company also entered into "clean firm power" contracts with Airbus to supply 3.3 terawatt-hours of electricity from new renewable assets, expected to cover half of Airbus' electricity needs starting in 2027 [8]. - A Memorandum of Understanding with Kuwait Oil Company aims to enhance cooperation and explore new opportunities in Kuwait [9]. - A joint venture with Bapco Energies, named BxT Trading, is set to enhance TotalEnergies' trading capabilities in the Middle East [10]. Analyst Sentiment - The average EPS estimate for the December 2025 quarter is $1.80, reflecting a -5.26% year-over-year growth rate, with further declines expected in fiscal 2025 and 2026 [11]. - Despite mixed analyst ratings, the overall sentiment remains positive, with 23 analysts rating the stock as a "Moderate Buy" and a mean price target of $72.94, indicating a slight premium over current trading levels [12][13].

Core Insights - TotalEnergies SE (TTE) reported Q4 2025 operating earnings of $1.73 per share, missing estimates by 3.9% and down 8.9% year-over-year [1] - Total revenues for Q4 were $45.92 billion, a decline of 2.52% from the previous year but exceeding estimates by 25.2% [2] - Hydrocarbon production averaged 2,545 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 4.9% year-over-year, driven by start-ups and acquisitions [3] - The quarterly realized price for Brent decreased by 14.7% to $63.7 per barrel [5] - Net operating income was $4.63 billion, down 7.2% year-over-year due to weak contributions from several segments [6] - TotalEnergies plans to invest $15 billion in 2026, including $3 billion for low-carbon energies [12] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share for 2025 were $6.89, down 11% from 2024 [1] - Revenues for 2025 totaled $182.3 billion, a decrease of 7% from $195.6 billion in 2024 [2] - Cash flow from operating activities in Q4 2025 was $10.47 billion, down 16.3% year-over-year [11] Production and Pricing - Liquid production averaged 1,555 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 7.6% year-over-year [3] - Quarterly gas production was 5,381 thousand cubic feet per day, up 1.1% year-over-year [4] - Realized gas prices fell by 18.4% year-over-year to $5.11 per thousand British thermal units [5] Segment Performance - Exploration & Production's operating earnings were $1.8 billion, down 21.7% from the previous year [9] - Integrated LNG's operating income was $0.92 billion, down 35.7% year-over-year [9] - Refining & Chemicals' operating income increased by 214.8% to $1 billion [9] Strategic Actions - TotalEnergies acquired assets worth $3.92 billion and sold assets worth $3.65 billion in 2025 [7] - The company repurchased 23.6 million shares worth $1.5 billion in Q4 and 122.6 million shares worth $7.5 billion for the full year [7] - Plans to buy back shares worth up to $750 million in Q1 2026 and $3-$4 billion for the full year [12]

Core Insights - TotalEnergies has signed a significant long-term power purchase agreement with Google to supply 1 GW of solar power to its data center in Texas, marking the largest renewable energy deal for the company in the U.S. to date, with a contract duration of 15 years and an expected delivery of approximately 28 TWh of clean electricity [4][6]. Project Details - The electricity will be sourced from two new solar power plants being developed by TotalEnergies in Texas: the 805 MW Wichita project and the 195 MW Mustang Creek project, both scheduled to begin construction in the second quarter of 2026 [5]. Strategic Synergy - The 1 GW agreement complements a recent 1.2 GW power purchase agreement obtained by Clearway Energy, a company in which TotalEnergies holds a 50% stake, supporting Google's operations in three key U.S. electricity markets: ERCOT, PJM, and SPP [6]. Local Benefits - The Wichita and Mustang Creek solar power plants are expected to create hundreds of jobs during construction and provide long-term stable tax revenue to support local public services once operational [7]. Executive Statements - TotalEnergies' VP of Renewable Energy in the U.S., Marc-Antoine Pignon, emphasized the strategic importance of this record renewable energy supply agreement, highlighting its role in providing decarbonization solutions tailored for digital enterprises, particularly data centers [8]. Google’s Director of Clean Energy and Power, Will Conkling, noted that the partnership enhances grid resilience and reliability while ensuring affordable electricity supply [8]. Market Positioning - TotalEnergies currently operates approximately 10 GW of onshore solar, wind, and battery storage assets in the U.S., with around 5 GW in the ERCOT market and about 400 MW in the PJM market [9]. Client Portfolio - The collaboration with Google expands TotalEnergies' client base for corporate power purchase agreements, which already includes major companies like Airbus, Amazon, Microsoft, Merck, Saint-Gobain, and Air Liquide [9]. The company aims to build a diversified portfolio of power assets, targeting over 32 GW of global renewable energy capacity by October 2025 and a goal of exceeding 100 TWh of net electricity generation by 2030 [9].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that TotalEnergies reported a significant decline in net profit for the year 2025, primarily due to falling oil and gas prices [2] - The company achieved a net profit of $13.13 billion in 2025, a decrease of 17% year-on-year; adjusted EBITDA was $40.56 billion, down 6% year-on-year [2] - In Q4 2025, the net profit was $2.91 billion, compared to $3.96 billion in the same quarter of 2024 [2] Group 2 - Despite the decline in several financial metrics, TotalEnergies expressed satisfaction with its financial stability and announced an increase in dividends while maintaining its stock buyback program [2] - The company will distribute a final dividend of €0.85 per share for the last fiscal year, following three interim dividends of €0.85 each, bringing the total ordinary dividend to €3.40 per share, a 5.6% increase from 2024 [2] - The expected stock buyback amount for 2026 is projected to be between $3 billion and $6 billion, assuming oil prices remain between $60 and $70 per barrel and the exchange rate is approximately €1 to $1.20 [2] - Due to uncertainties in current oil price trends, the company plans to execute only the lower range of buybacks in Q1, with an initial buyback amount of $750 million [2] Group 3 - On the day of the earnings report, TotalEnergies' stock performed positively, closing up 2.74% from the previous day [3]

Core Viewpoint - TotalEnergies (TTE.US) reported a Q4 2025 adjusted net profit of $3.8 billion, a 13% year-over-year decline, slightly below market expectations [1][2] Financial Performance - Adjusted net profit was $3.8 billion, down 13% year-over-year, slightly below analyst consensus of $3.9 billion [2] - Refining and chemicals segment profits surged 215% to $1 billion, driven by increased refining margins in Europe [2] - Oil and gas production increased by 5%, but exploration segment profits fell 21.6% to $1.8 billion due to a 15% drop in Brent crude prices and an 18% decline in LNG prices [2] Capital Movements - The company plans to repurchase $750 million in shares in Q1 2026, a 50% reduction from $1.5 billion in Q4 2025, at the lower end of previous guidance [3] - Quarterly dividend remains stable at €0.85 per share, with no adjustments made [3] Financial Condition - The company emphasized improving cash flow through asset disposals, but debt pressure remains [4] - As of Q3 2025, net debt stood at $24.6 billion, with a leverage ratio of 17.3% [4] - The 2026 budget is based on a conservative assumption of $60 per barrel for Brent crude, with potential adjustments to the repurchase plan based on oil prices [4] Industry Context - TotalEnergies is the last major European oil and gas producer to report quarterly results, following weak performances from Shell and BP due to low oil prices and declining refining margins [5]

Core Viewpoint - TotalEnergies is seeking clarification from the French government and the EU Commission regarding the EU's ban on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports [1] Group 1 - TotalEnergies' CEO, Patrick Pouyanne, made the request for clarification on the ban [1]

TotalEnergies has reported net income of $2.9bn, or $1.30 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter of 2025 (Q4 2025), a 26% decrease compared to $3.9bn, or $1.70 per diluted share, for the same period in 2024. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for the quarter was $10.1bn, down around 4% from $10.5bn in Q4 2024. The company reported net income of $13.1bn, or $5.78 per diluted share, for the full‑year 2025, a 17% decrease compared to $15.7bn, or $6.69 per di ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company generated $28 billion in cash flow from operations, exceeding the anticipated $25 billion [21][24] - The net adjusted income reached $15.6 billion, with a return on equity of 13.6% and a return on average capital employed (ROACE) of 12.6% [24][36] - The company maintained a strong balance sheet with a gearing ratio of 14.7% [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The upstream segment achieved a 4% growth in production, significantly above the guidance of 3% [15][18] - Integrated power production grew by over 20%, contributing to a total electricity net production of approximately 50 terawatt-hours in 2025 [19][20] - LNG sales increased by 10% compared to the previous year, aligning with production growth [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 10% growth in integrated LNG production and sales, despite a low price environment [30][31] - The refining utilization rates were in line with targets after addressing technical incidents earlier in the year [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a balanced strategy with two pillars: oil and gas, and integrated power, aiming for sustainable growth and emission reductions [12][38] - Significant investments were made in energy efficiency programs, totaling $1 billion from 2023 to 2025, resulting in a reduction of 2 million tons of CO2 equivalent emissions [10][11] - The company aims to achieve near-zero methane emissions by 2030, having already reduced methane emissions by 65% compared to 2020 [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates a challenging environment in 2026, prompting the launch of a cash-saving program to enhance resilience [69] - The company expects continued demand for oil and gas, with no peak demand anticipated in the near future [70] - The fundamentals of supply and demand remain stable, with a projected oil price planning at $60 per barrel [72] Other Important Information - The company has entered into a significant agreement in Namibia, establishing a new hub for future developments with substantial discovered resources [42][44] - The listing of ordinary shares on the NYSE aims to attract new investors and enhance liquidity [34] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the key achievements in Namibia? - The company confirmed substantial discovered resources in Namibia, with projects like Venus and Mopane forming the basis of a new deepwater hub [42][43] Question: How is the company addressing emissions? - The company has exceeded its emission reduction targets, achieving a 65% reduction in methane emissions and a 38% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions [9][10] Question: What is the outlook for integrated power? - The integrated power segment is expected to generate $3 billion in cash flow, reinforcing the company's resilience against oil and gas market cycles [69]