作者：Kevin McLaughlin、Aaron Holmes、Nick Wingfield AI 智能体将如何冲击软件行业，这一不确定性正在让投资者对行业未来产生疑虑。某软件高管近期的 表态，揭示了企业在应对外部 AI 智能体疯狂攫取数据时，可能采取的一种应对方式。 本月早些时候，在软件公司 HubSpot 的投资者电话会议上，一位华尔街分析师向 CEO Yamini Rangan 提出了一个几乎所有密切关注软件行业的人都在思考的问题： 如果客户使用 AI 智能体，从 HubSpot 的客户管理软件中提取数据，并用其他厂商的 AI 进行分析， HubSpot 打算如何应对？ "我们会监控、计量，并将其商业化变现。" Rangan 回应道。"我们的平台…… 在设计上是开放的，但我们不是供所有人随意提取信息的免费数据管 道。" Rangan 的表态，暗示了软件高管们为抵御外部智能体掠夺数据可能采取的策略。这意味着其公司可能 围绕客户数据设立收费关卡，与过去大多数软件公司允许应用间数据自由流通的模式形成鲜明反差。 在其他案例中，软件高管们也越来越多地强调：允许智能体访问敏感企业数据和应用，会带来安全风 险。 一 ...

Wasatch Advisors cut its holding in Valvoline (NYSE:VVV) by 2,082,251 shares in the fourth quarter, an estimated $66.85 million trade based on quarterly average pricing, according to a February 12, 2026, SEC filing. What happened According to a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing dated February 12, 2026, Wasatch Advisors reduced its position in Valvoline by 2,082,251 shares during the fourth quarter of 2025. The estimated transaction value was $66.85 million based on the average closing price ...

Core Viewpoint - Valvoline Inc. is actively supporting Concours in the Hills, a significant automotive event in Arizona, which aims to raise funds for children's health through the Children's Miracle Network Hospitals [1] Group 1: Company Involvement - Valvoline Inc. is recognized as a leader in preventive automotive maintenance [1] - The company is participating in its twelfth year of supporting Concours in the Hills, showcasing its commitment to community engagement [1] Group 2: Event Details - Concours in the Hills is one of Arizona's premier automotive events, attracting automotive enthusiasts [1] - The event is held at Fountain Park in Fountain Hills, Arizona, and focuses on raising critical funds for children's health [1]

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy focuses on long-term investments while also utilizing short-term shorts to identify alpha opportunities through bottom-up analysis of individual companies' fundamentals [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The approach emphasizes medium to long-term investment duration [1] - The goal is to identify companies with strong fundamentals, sustainable competitive advantages, and growth potential [1]

Core Insights - Valvoline reported a strong first quarter for fiscal 2026, with system-wide same-store sales increasing by 5.8% and net sales reaching $462 million, reflecting an 11% increase on a reported basis and a 15% increase when adjusted for refranchising impacts [4][7][10] Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 37.4%, up 50 basis points year-over-year, attributed to labor and product cost leverage, despite rising service delivery costs [10] - Adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 60 basis points to 25.4%, while the company reported a GAAP loss of $32.2 million primarily due to divestitures required by the FTC [12] - Operating cash flow improved to $64.8 million, with free cash flow increasing by approximately $20 million year-over-year to $7.4 million [13] Store Expansion and Acquisitions - The acquisition of Breeze added 162 stores, significantly increasing the store base, while Valvoline also opened 38 net new stores in the quarter, including 10 from franchise partners [6][8] - The company aims to add 250 new units by fiscal 2027, with a healthy pipeline for both company and franchise development [8] Customer Engagement and Market Trends - Valvoline's mobile service delivery initiative contributed about 20 basis points to same-store sales, focusing on consumer and fleet convenience [1] - The company reported strong customer feedback, with a 4.7-star rating across the network and Net Promoter Scores over 80% [7] Operational Initiatives and Technology - Management is implementing a multi-year technology strategy, including a new CRM system and cloud migration, which is expected to improve efficiencies and reduce maintenance costs over time [19] - Marketing initiatives, such as the "Instant Transfer Portal" campaign, have generated strong engagement, and the company is exploring a national advertising fund starting in fiscal 2027 [18] Financial Strategy and Leverage - Valvoline's leverage ratio stands at 3.3x net debt to adjusted EBITDA, with plans to reduce it to approximately 2.5x before resuming share repurchases [5][14] - The company anticipates a pre-tax interest expense increase of about $33 million in fiscal 2026 due to a new Term Loan B [14]

Financial Performance - Net revenues for the three months ended December 31, 2025, increased to $461.8 million, up 11.5% from $414.3 million in the same period of 2024[8]. - Gross profit rose to $172.5 million, representing a 12.5% increase compared to $152.9 million in the prior year[8]. - Operating income decreased significantly to $18.3 million from $143.8 million, indicating a decline of 87.3% year-over-year[8]. - The net loss for the quarter was $32.8 million, a stark contrast to the net income of $91.6 million reported in the same quarter of 2024[8]. - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 14% year-over-year to $117.4 million, representing 25.4% of net revenues, compared to $102.8 million in the prior year[84]. - The company reported a loss from continuing operations of $32.2 million, with a diluted loss per share of $0.25, primarily due to a pre-tax loss of $57.9 million from the sale of 45 Breeze stores[75]. Assets and Liabilities - Total assets increased to $3,402.1 million as of December 31, 2025, compared to $2,670.4 million at the end of September 2025, reflecting a growth of 27.4%[9]. - Long-term debt increased to $1,633.6 million from $1,050.2 million, representing a rise of 55.5%[9]. - Total debt increased to $1,664.8 million as of December 31, 2025, up from $1,074.0 million as of September 30, 2025[43]. - Stockholders' equity decreased to $307.6 million from $338.5 million, a decline of 9.1%[9]. - Valvoline's total assets at fair value as of December 31, 2025, amounted to $24.0 million, while total liabilities at fair value were $21.3 million[24]. Cash Flow - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period rose to $69.9 million, up from $51.6 million at the beginning of the quarter[11]. - The company reported total cash provided by operating activities of $64.8 million, compared to $41.2 million in the same quarter of the previous year, marking a 57.5% increase[11]. - Valvoline reported free cash flow of $7.4 million for the three months ended December 31, 2025, compared to a negative free cash flow of $12.2 million in the same period of 2024, driven by higher operating cash flows[110]. Acquisitions and Investments - The company incurred $635.6 million in acquisitions during the quarter, significantly higher than $4.4 million in the same period last year[11]. - Valvoline acquired Breeze Autocare for $638.7 million on December 1, 2025, expanding its service center network by 204 stores[29]. - Following the Breeze acquisition, Valvoline recognized a pre-tax loss of $57.9 million from the sale of 45 acquired stores, which was required for regulatory clearance[29]. - The company incurred $12.5 million in third-party costs related to the Breeze acquisition, included in selling, general, and administrative expenses[34]. - The Breeze acquisition, completed on December 1, 2025, represented approximately 3% of net revenues for the quarter and 22% of total consolidated assets[122]. Operational Metrics - System-wide same-store sales (SSS) growth was 5.8%, driven by network expansion and improvements in service mix and pricing[75]. - Net revenues from oil changes and related fees were $337.7 million, while non-oil changes and related fees contributed $100.5 million[84]. - The company expanded its retail presence to 1,196 company-operated service center stores as of December 31, 2025, following several acquisitions[38]. - Total system-wide stores reached 2,380 by the end of the first quarter of 2026, up from 2,180 in the previous quarter[86]. Debt and Financing - The effective interest rate for Term Loan B was 5.873% as of December 31, 2025, with a principal balance of $740.0 million[48]. - Approximately 32% of Valvoline's outstanding borrowings had fixed interest rates, with the remainder at variable rates, and the company was in compliance with all debt covenants[111]. - Valvoline amended its Senior Credit Agreement to include a seven-year $740.0 million Term Loan B, which was used to fund the Breeze acquisition[112]. - The company guaranteed future payments related to certain leases totaling $87.7 million as of December 31, 2025[50]. Tax and Compliance - Income tax expense for the three months ended December 31, 2025, was $26.2 million, with an effective tax rate of (436.7)%[51]. - The effective tax rate for the three months ended December 31, 2025, was (436.7)%, primarily due to losses before income taxes and non-deductible transaction costs associated with the Breeze acquisition[98]. - Valvoline was in compliance with all covenants under its long-term borrowings as of December 31, 2025[44]. Management and Strategy - Management believes the company has sufficient liquidity to meet its cash and operating requirements for the next twelve months[117]. - Valvoline continues to focus capital expenditures on growth, with maintenance capital expenditures increasing to $8.8 million from $5.7 million year-over-year[110]. - The company is actively working on remedial measures to address a material weakness in internal control over financial reporting, which was identified following the implementation of a new ERP system[127].

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Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net sales of $462 million, an increase of 11% on a reported basis and 15% when adjusted for refranchising impacts from the previous year [13] - The gross margin rate increased by 50 basis points year-over-year to 37.4%, driven by labor and product cost leverage, despite increases in other service delivery costs [13][14] - Adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 60 basis points to 25.4%, with both adjusted EBITDA and EPS growing double digits year-over-year [10][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - System-wide same-store sales grew by 5.8% and 13.8% on a two-year stack, with ticket prices being the largest contributor to this growth [7][10] - Franchise store performance was slightly above the system average, indicating strong growth in the franchise segment [8] - The company added 162 stores from the Breeze transaction and 38 net new stores, with 10 from franchise, contributing to network expansion [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Customer demand for nondiscretionary services remains strong, with no signs of trade-down or deferral observed [8] - The company achieved a 4.7-star rating across its network and NPS scores over 80%, reflecting high customer satisfaction [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on integrating the Breeze acquisition while continuing to drive productivity and margin expansion in its core business [10][17] - Plans to establish a national advertising fund in fiscal 2027 to enhance marketing efficiency as the network grows [85] - The company aims to reduce its leverage ratio to 2.5x as quickly as possible to resume share repurchase activities [16][80] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in meeting fiscal year 2026 guidance, citing strong fundamentals and customer demand [17] - The impact of Winter Storm Fern on Q2 performance was acknowledged, but management remains optimistic about recouping lost transactions as conditions normalize [35][111] - The company is monitoring macroeconomic factors affecting consumer spending but continues to see trade-up activity and premiumization in its services [46] Other Important Information - The company raised over $1.8 million for local children's hospitals through fundraising efforts, marking a nearly 40% increase over the prior year [12] - The company is working on improving internal controls and expects to resolve material weaknesses by the end of the fiscal year [50][51] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of non-oil change revenue on same-store sales - Management confirmed that non-oil change revenue contributed around 20 basis points to same-store sales this quarter [19] Question: Franchise store growth pipeline - Management indicated a robust pipeline for franchise openings, with nine units opened in January, suggesting strong momentum [20] Question: Sales composition trends - Management noted balanced growth in ticket and transaction contributions, with ticket being a larger contributor in Q1 [25][26] Question: Integration focus on Breeze - Management emphasized that Breeze represents less than 10% of financial commitments for FY 2026, allowing focus on core business growth [27] Question: Gross margin performance - Management highlighted that gross margin improved due to labor and product cost management, with expectations for continued progress [56] Question: Customer acquisition and advertising strategies - Management discussed sophisticated marketing strategies aimed at optimizing customer acquisition costs and improving return on ad spend [104] Question: Material weakness in internal controls - Management provided an update on the progress of addressing material weaknesses, indicating good progress but ongoing work is required [50][51]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net sales of $462 million, an increase of 11% on a reported basis and 15% when adjusted for refranchising impacts from the previous year [13] - Gross margin rate improved to 37.4%, up 50 basis points year-over-year, driven by labor and product cost leverage [13][14] - Adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 60 basis points to 25.4%, with both adjusted EBITDA and EPS growing double digits year-over-year [10][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - System-wide same-store sales grew by 5.8% and 13.8% on a two-year stack, with ticket prices being the largest contributor [7][10] - Franchise same-store sales were slightly higher than the system average, indicating strong performance across both company and franchise stores [8] - The company added 162 stores from the Breeze transaction and 38 net new stores, with 10 from franchise [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Customer demand for nondiscretionary services remains strong, with no signs of trade-down or deferral observed [8] - The company achieved a 4.7-star rating across its network and NPS scores over 80%, reflecting high customer satisfaction [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on network expansion, productivity gains, and margin improvement to drive earnings growth [6][10] - Integration of the Breeze stores is underway, with expectations for continued growth and sharing of best practices across the teams [9][17] - The company aims to maintain its position as a category leader with a focus on long-term value creation for shareholders [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in meeting guidance for fiscal year 2026, despite potential near-term headwinds from immature stores [10][17] - The company noted that customer behavior is expected to normalize post-weather disruptions, with a strong start to Q2 before the impact of Winter Storm Fern [35][111] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining customer trust and loyalty, which has been bolstered by strong brand recognition and service quality [11][47] Other Important Information - The company raised over $1.8 million for local children's hospitals through fundraising efforts, marking a nearly 40% increase over the prior year [12] - The company is working on improving internal controls and expects to resolve material weaknesses by the end of the fiscal year [50][53] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of non-oil change revenue on same-store sales - Management confirmed that non-oil change revenue contributed around 20 basis points to same-store sales this quarter, with mobile service delivery being in early stages [19] Question: Franchise store growth pipeline - Management indicated a robust pipeline for franchise openings, with nine units opened in January and a target of 250 new units for fiscal year 2027 [20] Question: Trends in sales composition - Management noted that ticket prices were the larger contributor to same-store sales growth, with balanced growth across both ticket and transaction metrics [25][62] Question: Impact of Breeze on financials - Breeze stores are expected to add approximately $160 million in top line and $31 million in EBITDA for the 10 months of ownership in fiscal 2026 [42] Question: Material weakness in internal controls - Management stated that significant progress has been made in addressing material weaknesses, with expectations to resolve issues by the end of the fiscal year [50][53] Question: Gross margin performance - Management highlighted that gross margin improved due to labor and product cost leverage, with expectations for continued progress [57] Question: Customer acquisition and marketing strategies - Management discussed the effectiveness of their marketing strategies, including lifecycle management and customer engagement, which have improved return on ad spend [104]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Valvoline reported net sales of $462 million, an increase of 11% on a reported basis and 15% when adjusted for refranchising impacts from the previous year [12] - The gross margin rate improved by 50 basis points year-over-year to 37.4%, driven by labor and product cost leverage, despite increases in service delivery costs [12][13] - Adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 60 basis points to 25.4%, while EPS grew by 16%, or 28% when adjusted for refranchising [12][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - System-wide same-store sales grew by 5.8% and 13.8% on a two-year stack, with ticket prices being the largest contributor to this growth [5][6] - Franchise same-store sales were slightly higher than the system average, indicating strong performance across both company and franchise stores [6] - The company added 162 stores from the Breeze transaction and 38 net new stores, with 10 from franchise [7][8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Customer demand for nondiscretionary services remains strong, with no signs of trade-down or deferral observed [6] - Valvoline's customer satisfaction is reflected in a 4.7-star rating and NPS scores over 80% [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to expand its network to over 3,500 stores, with a focus on productivity and margin improvement [5][9] - Valvoline is integrating the Breeze stores and expects to leverage best practices across the organization [8][9] - The company is also exploring a national advertising fund to enhance marketing efficiency as its network grows [84] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in meeting fiscal year 2026 guidance, citing strong core business fundamentals despite near-term headwinds from immature stores [10][15] - The company anticipates that customer behavior will normalize post-weather disruptions, with expectations of recouping lost transactions [34][111] Other Important Information - Valvoline raised over $1.8 million for local children's hospitals, marking a nearly 40% increase from the previous year [11] - The company is focused on reducing leverage to 2.5 times adjusted EBITDA to resume share repurchase activities [14][79] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of non-oil change revenue on same-store sales - Management confirmed that non-oil change revenue contributed around 20 basis points to same-store sales this quarter [18] Question: Franchise store growth pipeline - Management indicated a robust pipeline for franchise openings, with nine new units opened in January [19] Question: Trends in sales composition - Management noted that ticket prices were the larger contributor to same-store sales growth, with balanced growth across both ticket and transaction [24][61] Question: Breeze integration focus - Management stated that Breeze represents less than 10% of financial commitments for FY 2026, emphasizing strong core business momentum [26] Question: Gross margin performance - Management highlighted that gross margin improved due to labor and product cost leverage, with expectations for continued progress [55] Question: Customer trade-down behavior - Management noted that convenience is a significant driver for customers switching from dealerships to Valvoline, rather than solely price considerations [66] Question: Impact of Winter Storm Fern - Management acknowledged that while the storm affected transactions, historical patterns suggest customers will return for service once conditions normalize [111]