请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 证券研究报告 金融公司|公司点评|东方财富（300059） 证券业务市占率提升，固收投资收益表 现亮眼 2025年03月15日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 东方财富发布 2024 年年报，2024 年实现营业总收入 116.0 亿元，yoy+4.7%；归母净利润 96.1 亿元，yoy+17.3%；ROE12.6%，较去年同期增加 0.7pct。2024Q4 单季度营业总收入 43.0 亿元， yoy+65.8%/qoq+82.3%；归母净利润 35.7 亿元，yoy+79.8%/qoq+79.7%。 |分析师及联系人 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 7 刘雨辰 耿张逸 SAC：S0590522100001 SAC：S0590524100001 金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2025年03月15日 东方财富(300059) 证券业务市占率提升，固收投资收益表现亮 眼 | 行 | 业： | 非银金融/证券Ⅱ | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资评级： | | 买入（维持） | | 当前价格： | | 24.43 元 ...

2025年03月15日 证券研究报告 证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|非银金融 低利率时代系列研究三：复盘日本，机 构更迭与居民资产配置的演变 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 |报告要点 日本居民总资产中金融资产占比持续提升，2023 年末为 64.17%，占比较 1980 年末+27.92PCT。 其中现金及存款、保险及养老金及保函、股权及基金分别占居民金融资产的 51.12%、24.77%、 19.15%，整体风险偏好较低。日本的金融资产主要由老年人群和富裕人群持有。日本财富管理 机构更重视这两类人群的财富管理需求，根据这两类人群的风险偏好、特定需求提供产品和 服务。 |分析师及联系人 刘雨辰 耿张逸 朱丽芳 陈昌涛 SAC：S0590522100001 SAC：S0590524100001 SAC：S0590524080001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 23 行业研究|行业专题研究 glzqdatemark2 2025年03月15日 非银金融 低利率时代系列研究三：复盘日本，机构更 迭与居民资产配置的演变 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相 ...

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - The demand for rare earth elements is expected to recover due to multiple catalysts in the fields of new energy vehicles, home appliances, and robotics. The acceleration of humanoid robot deployment opens up long-term growth space for rare earth permanent magnet materials. The domestic rare earth mining quota growth is slowing, and the import situation from Myanmar remains unstable, making it difficult for the supply side to increase. The supply-demand pattern for rare earths is expected to continue improving, with rare earth magnetic materials likely to reshape a new cycle in 2025. The investment opportunities in the rare earth magnetic materials industry chain are promising, with recommendations for leading companies in high-end rare earth permanent magnet materials such as Jinli Permanent Magnet and light rare earth leader Northern Rare Earth [4][14]. Summary by Sections - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The domestic rare earth quota growth is slowing, with the total mining control index for 2024 set at 270,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, but a decrease in growth rate by 15.5 percentage points. The total control index for rare earth smelting and separation is 254,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and a decrease in growth rate by 16.6 percentage points. Since Q3 2024, the instability in Myanmar's Kachin State has increased uncertainty regarding local production and supply to China, leading to a year-on-year decline of 17.3% in imports of unnamed rare earth oxides from Myanmar, totaling 34,500 tons in 2024. The downward trend in rare earth imports continued into 2025, with a total of 16,922 tons in January-February, a year-on-year decrease of 24.1% [10][11]. - **Regulatory Changes**: On February 19, 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a draft management method for rare earth mining and smelting separation, which includes foreign imported rare earth ores under regulatory management. This aims to enhance control over the supply side and is expected to increase the concentration of the rare earth industry [11]. - **Demand Growth**: Driven by "two new" policies, the demand for rare earth permanent magnet materials is expected to grow significantly in the new energy vehicle and home appliance sectors. It is estimated that global demand for high-performance neodymium-iron-boron will reach 200,000 tons in 2025, an increase of 26,000 tons year-on-year. Specifically, the demand from the new energy vehicle and variable frequency air conditioning sectors is expected to be 93,000 tons and 18,000 tons, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 20,000 tons and 1,000 tons. High-performance neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnet materials are also key components in humanoid robots, and advancements in AI technology are likely to accelerate the mass production of humanoid robots, further driving demand for rare earth permanent magnet materials [12]. - **Price Trends**: The global demand for praseodymium-neodymium oxide is expected to be 107,000 tons and 116,000 tons in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with supply expected to be 107,000 tons and 111,000 tons. The supply-demand gap is projected to be +500 tons and -4,500 tons for those years. The supply-demand pattern for rare earths is expected to continue improving, and as the concentration of the rare earth industry increases, the bargaining power of rare earth groups in the industry chain will strengthen, supporting the upward trend in rare earth prices. As of March 12, 2025, the rare earth price index was 183.65, up 12.15% from the end of 2024 [13].

证券研究报告 宏观经济|宏观点评 通胀低于预期市场押注美联储 6 月降息 ——美国 2 月 CPI 数据点评 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年03月14日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 美国 2 月 CPI 同比增长 2.8%，核心 CPI 同比增长 3.1%，都低于预期和前值。长期的通胀预期 总体来说仍较为稳定，然而短期通胀预期维持相对高位。结构上，核心商品继续通缩，不过离 转正并不远，二手车的通胀同比第二个月正增长，而环比增速略微回落。核心服务通胀环比增 速较上月下行，同比继续小幅回落，居所通胀环比小幅回落，同比增速也继续下行。市场对美 联储 2025 年降息的预期边际变化不大，2025 年降息 2 次及以上的概率约 9 成。目前市场预期 美联储再次降息的时间点或在 6 月。 |分析师及联系人 王博群 方诗超 SAC：S0590524010002 SAC：S0590523030001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 18 宏观经济|宏观点评 glzqdatemark2 2025年03月14日 宏观点评 通胀低于预期市场押注美联储 6 月降息 ——美国 2 月 CPI ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable growth signal with a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, which aligns with market expectations [9][17][18]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and enhancing the effectiveness of the national innovation system, reflecting a shift in focus from previous years [11][28][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Goals Meet Expectations - The government work report outlines the overall requirements and policy direction for economic and social development in 2025, with a focus on stable growth and proactive fiscal policies [4][8][16]. - The GDP growth target of around 5% is seen as a necessary measure to stabilize employment and ensure income growth for residents, especially after recent economic slowdowns [9][17][23]. 1.1 GDP Target Signals Stable Growth - The report sets a GDP growth target of approximately 5%, which is consistent with previous years and aims to address the negative output gap [9][17][23]. 1.2 Fiscal Arrangements Maintain Proactive Tone - The fiscal policy continues to adopt a more proactive stance, with a proposed deficit rate of 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, and a local special bond issuance target of 4.4 trillion yuan, up by 500 billion yuan [10][26][27]. 2. Emphasis on Expanding Domestic Demand and Enhancing Innovation System - The report elevates the importance of expanding domestic demand to the top priority, with detailed plans to boost consumption and investment [11][28][29]. - The government aims to support consumption through measures such as issuing 300 billion yuan in special bonds for replacing old consumer goods [29][31]. 2.1 Importance of Expanding Domestic Demand - The report highlights the need to enhance consumer spending and investment, with specific measures to support low-income groups and improve consumption scenarios [29][31]. 2.2 Focus on Enhancing Innovation System Effectiveness - The report includes initiatives to improve the national innovation system, emphasizing high-level technological development and the cultivation of new industries such as commercial aerospace and quantum technology [32][33].

Employment Data - The unemployment rate in the U.S. slightly increased to 4.1% in February 2025, compared to the expected 4%[4] - The Sahm rule indicator decreased to 0.27%, down from 0.37% last month, alleviating recession concerns[8] - The labor force participation rate fell to 62.4%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[30] Non-Farm Payrolls - Non-farm payrolls added 151,000 jobs in February, slightly below the expected 160,000[9] - The three-month average for non-farm employment growth is 200,000, while the six-month average is 191,000[55] - In February, three sectors saw job losses, while government employment continued to grow[10] Wage Trends - Average hourly earnings increased by 4% year-over-year, with a month-over-month increase of 0.3%[11] - Nine sectors outperformed inflation in wage growth, indicating a mixed performance across industries[77] Federal Reserve Outlook - Market expectations suggest a high probability (over 90%) of at least two rate cuts in 2025, with a 65% chance of three or more cuts[13] - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a "wait-and-see" approach in the first half of 2025, with potential rate cuts in the second half[4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated continuous high growth, with a revenue increase of 29.49% year-on-year, reaching 3.257 billion yuan in 2024. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 352 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.67% [5][13] - The company is positioned to become a leader in the AI and low-altitude economy sectors, leveraging its "1+2+N+M" low-altitude strategy and launching innovative products like the GEOVIS intelligent low-altitude brain [15] - The second growth curve, particularly in cloud services, has shown significant growth, with various business segments achieving substantial revenue increases [14] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 3.257 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 29.49%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 352 million yuan, with a growth of 2.67% [5][13] - For Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.250 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.00% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 38.53%. However, the net profit for this quarter decreased by 13.95% year-on-year [5][13] - The company forecasts revenues of 4.656 billion yuan, 6.058 billion yuan, and 7.807 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 42.95%, 30.11%, and 28.86% [15][17] Business Segment Performance - Revenue from various business segments in 2024 includes: special fields (1.003 billion yuan, +19.92%), government business (956 million yuan, +28.91%), enterprise business (256 million yuan, +10.90%), aerospace measurement and control (288 million yuan, +25.90%), meteorological ecology (563 million yuan, +47.36%), and online business (103 million yuan, +395.44%) [14] - The gross profit margins for these segments varied, with special fields at 50.88% and online business at 76.80% [14] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 593 million yuan, 782 million yuan, and 1.024 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating growth rates of 68.74%, 31.81%, and 30.90% [15][17] - The company is actively pursuing opportunities in the low-altitude economy, which encompasses infrastructure development, aircraft manufacturing, and application scenarios [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.869 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.42%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 184 million yuan, also down 12.35% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit decreased significantly by 62.69% to 79 million yuan. However, in the fourth quarter, the company achieved a revenue of 707 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.35%, and a net profit of 17 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [5][14] Summary by Sections Business Performance - The company's raw material drug business saw a revenue of 1.255 billion yuan in 2024, down 25.17% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in the sales price of heparin sodium. The demand for heparin raw materials is improving, although the export price has been affected by raw material costs. The nuclear medicine business remained stable, with revenues from 18F-FDG at 421 million yuan (up 0.25% year-on-year) and from cloud injection solutions at 231 million yuan (down 5.48% year-on-year) [15] Nuclear Medicine Development - The company has a leading position in nuclear medicine facilities and product layout. It has received approval for the launch of technetium-99m labeled drugs and has several products in the III phase of clinical trials. The company operates multiple nuclear medicine centers, covering 93.5% of the domestic population's nuclear medicine needs [16] Future Projections - The company is expected to see revenues of 3.098 billion yuan, 3.361 billion yuan, and 3.661 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.99%, 8.50%, and 8.93%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 237 million yuan, 264 million yuan, and 297 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 28.97%, 11.54%, and 12.23% respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.29 yuan, 0.32 yuan, and 0.36 yuan [17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - BYD's passenger car sales in February 2025 reached 318,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 161.4% and a month-on-month increase of 7.3% [4][12] - The cumulative sales for January and February 2025 amounted to 615,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of 90.4% [4][12] - The high growth rate is attributed to three main factors: the "全民智驾" (全民智驾) intelligent strategy enhancing competitiveness across all price ranges, accelerated clearance of older non-intelligent models with increased discounts, and a low sales base from the previous year due to the absence of a vehicle trade-in policy in February 2024 [4][12] Sales Performance - In February 2025, the sales breakdown by brand showed strong performance: Dynasty + Ocean Network sold 304,673 units, Tengshi 8,513 units, Fangchengbao 4,942 units, and Yangwang 105 units, with year-on-year growth rates of 167.1%, 85.1%, 113.9%, and -86.5% respectively [13] - The high-end brands, represented by Fangchengbao 8 and Tengshi N9, are expected to have strong growth potential due to the intelligent strategy and the "532" strategy [13] Overseas Sales - BYD's overseas sales in February 2025 reached 67,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 187.8% and a month-on-month increase of 1% [14] - Overseas sales accounted for 21.1% of total sales, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9 percentage points [14] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for BYD from 2024 to 2026 are as follows: 813.06 billion, 952.98 billion, and 1,162.64 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.0%, 17.2%, and 22.0% respectively [15][16] - Net profit projections for the same period are 40.51 billion, 51.38 billion, and 63.92 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.8%, 26.8%, and 24.4% respectively [15][16] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 13.92, 17.66, and 21.97 yuan, with a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.6% [15][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.63%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.09% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 3.262 billion yuan, growing by 74.48% year-on-year, closely aligning with previous performance forecasts [4][14] - The growth was driven by strong performance in the energy drink segment and the introduction of new products, with online sales and the North China region showing particularly strong results. The company is transitioning from a leader in energy drinks to a broader beverage platform while expanding into overseas markets, particularly Southeast Asia, which is expected to contribute additional growth [4][16] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 15.839 billion yuan, with a breakdown of revenue from energy drinks at 13.304 billion yuan (up 28.49%), electrolyte drinks at 1.495 billion yuan (up 280.37%), and other beverages at 1.023 billion yuan (up 103.19%). Online sales and various regions, including North China, saw growth rates exceeding 50% [14][15] - The gross margin for 2024 was 44.81%, an increase of 1.74 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to favorable raw material costs. The net profit margin for 2024 was 21.00%, up 2.89 percentage points year-on-year [15][16] - The company forecasts revenues of 20.613 billion yuan, 25.423 billion yuan, and 30.375 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.331 billion yuan, 5.487 billion yuan, and 6.698 billion yuan, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.27% [16][17]