证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2026 02 14 年 月 日 固定收益点评 如何理解社融与货币增速背离 信贷开门红成色不足。信贷相对偏弱，1 月新增信贷 4.71 万亿，同比少增 0.42 万亿。如果考虑到春节因素，信贷需求或更弱。结构来看，今年 1 月 企业信贷当月新增 44500 亿元，同比少增 3300 亿元，其中中长期贷款当 月新增 31800 亿元，同比少增 2800 亿元。居民中长期贷款当月新增 3469 亿元，同比少增 1466 亿元，反映居民购房意愿与按揭投放节奏未明显改 善，高频数据来看地产销售仍偏弱，是信贷结构中的主要拖累项。 政府债券推动社融增长。1 月新增社融 7.2 万亿元，同比多增 1654 亿元， 社融同比多增主要受政府债券放量推动，社融存量同比增长 8.2%，增速 较上月小幅下行 0.1 个百分点。结构上来看，1 月政府债券对社融带动作 用较为明显，2026 年 1 月政府债券新增规模为 9764 亿元，同比增加 2831 亿元。后续来看，在政府债发力前置、企业中长贷修复仍偏弱的背景下， 2026 年上半年社融增速或将延续平缓下行趋势。 春节因素推 ...

Employment Data - In January 2026, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 65,000, marking the highest increase since April 2025[7] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4% and the previous rate, indicating a new low since September 2025[7] - The labor force participation rate was 62.5%, slightly above the previous value of 62.4%[7] Inflation Data - The January 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, below expectations and the previous value, continuing a three-month decline since September 2025[3] - The core CPI remained stable at a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, matching market expectations, while the overall CPI month-on-month increase was only 0.2%[3][4] - The "super core" CPI recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.59%, significantly higher than the previous month's 0.23%, indicating persistent service inflation[4][6] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm report, asset prices were volatile, with U.S. stocks initially rising before declining, and bond yields fluctuating[9] - After the CPI release, market expectations for interest rate cuts fluctuated, with the implied number of cuts for 2026 rising from 2.36 to 2.53 times[10] Economic Outlook - The combination of strong employment data and weak CPI suggests a complex economic landscape, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain a cautious stance on monetary policy in the short term[11] - Significant changes in policy are anticipated post the May 2026 Federal Reserve chair transition, which may open up more room for rate cuts later in the year[12] - The market currently anticipates approximately 2.5 rate cuts for 2026, aligning with economic fundamentals but potentially underestimating challenges to the Fed's independence[12]

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2026 02 14 年 月 日 宏观点评 美国 1 月就业强、通胀弱的背后 事件：1）北京时间 2 月 11 日 21：30，BLS 公布 2026 年 1 月非农就业数 据，美国，1 月季调后非农就业人口增加 13 万人，远超市场预期，创 2025 年 4 月以来新高。1 月失业率 4.3%，低于市场预期，创 2025 年 9 月以来 新低；2）北京时间 2 月 13 日 21：30，BLS 公布 2026 年 1 月 CPI 数据， 美国 1 月未季调 CPI 同比 2.4%，低于市场预期；季调后环比 0.2%，低于 市场预期；核心 CPI 环比 0.3%，持平市场预期。 核心结论：美国 1 月 CPI 低于预期、核心 CPI 持平预期，整体通胀继续温 和回落，但核心 CPI 环比仍在 0.3%，超核心 CPI 环比接近 0.6%，显示服 务通胀粘性仍然存在。此外，本周公布的非农报告显示，1 月新增非农就 业 13 万，远高于预期值 6.5 万，1 月失业率 4.3%，低于预期值和前值 4.4%，但结构上看就业改善集中于少数服务行业，扩散度有限，且数 ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2026 02 14 年 月 日 小鹏汽车-W（09868.HK） 看好 VLA 2.0 能力，即将在 26Q1 全量推送 小鹏汽车即将在 3 月开始推送 VLA 2.0，大幅提升智驾能力。26Q1 的 VLA 2.0 将带来全新 的大模型、大算力、大数据，2250TOPS 车端算力软硬件适配、3 万卡云端超大算力集群， 近 1 亿视频训练数据、相当于 6.5 万年遇到的极限场景总和。从推送节奏来看，小鹏汽车将 在 3 月第一批推送 2025 款 P7、G7 纯电、X9 增程等车型的 Ultra 版，3 月后分批推送 2026 款 P7+、G7 增程、2026 款 G6、2026 款 G9 等全新车型的 Ultra 和 Ultra SE 版本。我们看好 全新模型涌现出的优秀能力，我们也认为自动驾驶将是小鹏汽车逐步走向物理 AI 的基石。 2026 年将是小鹏汽车 Robotaxi 元年。在 1 月初的新品发布会上，小鹏汽车表示搭载 VLA2.0 的 Robotaxi 已经通过第三方测试机构场地测试，即将开始公开道路测试。2 月 6 日，据财联 社独家报道， ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2026 02 14 年 月 日 小鹏汽车-W（09868.HK） 看好 VLA 2.0 能力，即将在 26Q1 全量推送 小鹏汽车即将在 3 月开始推送 VLA 2.0，大幅提升智驾能力。26Q1 的 VLA 2.0 将带来全新 的大模型、大算力、大数据，2250TOPS 车端算力软硬件适配、3 万卡云端超大算力集群， 近 1 亿视频训练数据、相当于 6.5 万年遇到的极限场景总和。从推送节奏来看，小鹏汽车将 在 3 月第一批推送 2025 款 P7、G7 纯电、X9 增程等车型的 Ultra 版，3 月后分批推送 2026 款 P7+、G7 增程、2026 款 G6、2026 款 G9 等全新车型的 Ultra 和 Ultra SE 版本。我们看好 全新模型涌现出的优秀能力，我们也认为自动驾驶将是小鹏汽车逐步走向物理 AI 的基石。 2026 年将是小鹏汽车 Robotaxi 元年。在 1 月初的新品发布会上，小鹏汽车表示搭载 VLA2.0 的 Robotaxi 已经通过第三方测试机构场地测试，即将开始公开道路测试。2 月 6 日，据财联 社独家报道， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the electronic industry, with a focus on specific stocks such as 香农芯创, 东山精密, 兆易创新, 北方华创, 中微公司, and 胜宏科技 [6][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant advancements in AI models from Alibaba and ByteDance, which are expected to drive a substantial increase in computing power demand, particularly in video generation applications [2][12]. - The NAND market is projected to grow significantly, driven by AI-related data center demands, with a forecasted bit shipment growth rate of approximately 17%-19% for 2026 [3][61]. Summary by Sections Section 1: AI Model Releases and Computing Demand - Alibaba's Qwen-Image-2.0 model integrates image generation and editing, supporting 1K token inputs and 2K resolution, enhancing performance significantly [13][15]. - ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 model, released on February 12, 2026, demonstrates a 3-5 times increase in computing power consumption compared to standard video generation models, indicating a shift towards more computationally intensive applications [19][20]. Section 2: Kioxia's Financial Performance - Kioxia reported a record revenue of 543.6 billion JPY (approximately 3.5 billion USD) for FY25Q3, marking a 21.3% quarter-over-quarter increase, driven by higher average selling prices (ASP) and bit shipments [46][47]. - The company anticipates full-year revenue for FY25 to be between 2.18 trillion JPY and 2.27 trillion JPY, with a focus on increasing the proportion of data center and enterprise SSD shipments [58][61]. Section 3: Semiconductor Industry Trends - The report notes that domestic AI applications are transitioning from "technology development" to "scaled deployment," which is expected to inject strong momentum into the domestic AI computing industry [2][12]. - SMIC's Q4 2025 revenue reached 2.489 billion USD, a 12.8% year-over-year increase, with a focus on expanding production capacity and optimizing business structure [25][31]. Section 4: Related Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several key stocks and sectors for investment, including computing chips, interconnect chips, storage modules, semiconductor equipment, and materials, highlighting companies like 寒武纪, 中微公司, and 香农芯创 [62][63].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the electronic industry, with a focus on specific stocks such as 香农芯创, 东山精密, 兆易创新, 北方华创, 中微公司, and 胜宏科技 [6][62]. Core Insights - The release of AI models by Alibaba and ByteDance is expected to significantly increase the demand for computing power, particularly in video generation applications, which are more resource-intensive than text generation [2][12]. - The report highlights that the domestic AI applications are transitioning from "technology development" to "scaled deployment," indicating a robust demand for AI computing resources [2][12]. - Kioxia reported record revenue of 543.6 billion yen (approximately 3.547 billion USD) for FY25Q3, driven by increased average selling prices (ASP) and bit shipments, with expectations for continued growth in the NAND market due to AI-driven demand [3][46][61]. Summary by Sections Section 1: AI Model Releases and Computing Power Demand - Alibaba's Qwen-Image-2.0 model integrates image generation and editing, supporting 1K token input and 2K resolution, enhancing performance significantly [1][13]. - ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 model, released on February 12, 2026, demonstrates a 3-5 times increase in computing power consumption compared to standard video generation models, addressing complex motion and interaction scenarios [2][19][20]. Section 2: Kioxia's Financial Performance - Kioxia's FY25Q3 revenue reached a historical high of 543.6 billion yen, with a quarter-over-quarter growth of 21.3%, attributed to increased ASP and bit shipments [3][46]. - The company anticipates FY25 revenue between 2.18 trillion yen and 2.27 trillion yen, with a focus on data center and enterprise SSD shipments driving profitability [3][61]. Section 3: Related Stocks and Market Opportunities - The report identifies several key stocks in the semiconductor and AI sectors, including companies involved in computing power chips, storage modules, and semiconductor equipment, indicating a broad range of investment opportunities [62][63].

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2026 02 13 年 月 日 宏观点评 信贷"开门红"成色几何？ 事件：2026 年 1 月新增人民币贷款 4.71 万亿，前值 9100 亿，预期 4.5 万 亿，去年同期 5.13 万亿；新增社融 7.22 万亿，前值 2.21 万亿，预期 6.51 万亿，去年同期 7.05 万亿；存量社融增速 8.2%，前值 8.3%；M2 同比 9%，预期 8.4%，前值 8.5%；M1 同比 4.9%，预期 2.9%，前值 3.8%。 核心结论：整体看，1 月信贷"开门红"成色不足，集中体现在居民中长 期贷款表现偏弱，企业中长期贷款转为少增，企业短贷有冲量迹象等；社 融在政府债券、企业债券等的支撑下表现尚可。从 1 月货币金融数据来看， 当前经济有 3 点特征：一是财政靠前发力迹象明显，包括消费补贴提前下 达后居民消费有改善迹象、居民短贷同比转为多增，政府债券在高基数的 基础上多增；二是地产、制造业投资仍然承压，居民中长期贷款和企业中 长期贷款表现均偏弱；三是居民存款活化或在加快，M1 增速抬升，非银 存款和居民存款一增一减。往后看，继续提示：当前经济仍属于 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kingsoft Office (688111.SH) [3] Core Viewpoints - Kingsoft Office is positioned to be a core beneficiary of the new AI office trend, particularly with the launch of Claude for Excel and Claude for PowerPoint, which introduce AI functionalities to enhance user experience in office software [1][2][3] - The company is recognized as a leading provider of office software and services in China, with a strong technical foundation and market positioning, which is expected to drive growth in the AI office sector [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Kingsoft Office are estimated to be CNY 6.01 billion, CNY 7.12 billion, and CNY 8.42 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 17.4%, 18.5%, and 18.3% [3][5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to reach CNY 1.86 billion, CNY 2.22 billion, and CNY 2.71 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 13.1%, 19.3%, and 22.3% [3][5] - The report highlights an expected EPS of CNY 4.01, CNY 4.79, and CNY 5.85 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5] Market Position - Kingsoft Office serves users in over 220 countries and regions, with products compatible across major operating systems including Windows, Linux, MacOS, Android, and iOS [3] - The company is recognized for its strong market position and technological capabilities, which are expected to enhance its competitive edge in the AI office software market [3]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2026 02 13 年 月 日 金山办公（688111.SH） Claude for excel 问世，公司有望核心受益于 AI 办公新趋势 事件：近日，Claude 发布 Claude for excel 和 claude for powerpoint，提 供基于办公软件的 AI 新功能，产业层面上打开全新可能。 Claude for excel 可以通过 AI 理解、修改表格，并保持结构和公式关系 完整。这一新功能允许用户在 Microsoft Excel 的侧边栏中直接与 Claude 协作，Claude 能够读取、分析、修改并创建新的 Excel 工作簿。Claude 对 其执行的操作保持完全透明：它会跟踪并解释所做的更改，并允许用户直 接导航到其解释中引用的单元格。这意味着 Claude 可以讨论电子表格的 工作原理，在修改时保持其结构和公式依赖关系，调试和修复单元格公式， 用新数据和假设填充模板，或者完全从头开始构建新的电子表格。 Claude for PPT 可以在模板完整情况下实现对 PPT 内容的上下文精准 编辑。这一新功能可以构建幻灯 ...