Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail trade industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [2]. Core Insights - The "Guzi Economy" is highlighted as a high-growth market with a fragmented landscape and an increasing number of players, driven by the rapid development of the "ACG" (Anime, Comic, Game) culture [3][12]. - The overall market size for the ACG and its derivative markets reached 221.9 billion yuan in 2023, with the peripheral and derivative market accounting for 102.4 billion yuan, showing a growth rate that has consistently outpaced the content market since 2017 [3][12]. - The number of users in the ACG sector is on the rise, reaching 500 million in 2023, with younger generations, particularly those born after 2000, expected to drive future growth [14]. - The report emphasizes the rapid increase in consumer spending in the ACG sector, particularly in the collectible toy market, which is largely driven by IP licensing and high demand from fans [20]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report notes a significant increase in the trading volume and market activity within the ACG sector, with a notable 104% year-on-year growth in second-hand transactions on platforms like Xianyu [20]. Competitive Landscape - The peripheral market for ACG products is characterized by low concentration, with many competitors and a high level of consumer bargaining power, leading to intense competition [4][22]. - Key players include Pop Mart, 52toys, and Miniso, each focusing on different aspects of the supply chain and market strategy [4][22]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several companies as potential investment opportunities within the "Guzi Economy": - **Guangbo Co., Ltd.**: Focuses on cultural and creative products, leveraging partnerships with well-known IPs to enhance its product offerings [23][24]. - **Aofei Entertainment**: A leading player in the ACG IP space, known for its collaborations with popular brands to create merchandise [25]. - **Morning Glory Co., Ltd.**: Engages in the ACG market with various brands and has successfully launched products in collaboration with popular games [26]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: 1. **Consumer Sentiment**: Emphasizing beauty and personal care sectors, with recommendations for companies like Juzhibio and Aimeike [28]. 2. **Cross-Border E-commerce**: Despite short-term tariff concerns, long-term growth is expected, with companies like Pop Mart and Miniso highlighted [29]. 3. **Recovery in Traditional Retail**: Identifying potential rebounds in the restaurant and retail sectors, with a focus on companies like Haidilao and Yonghui Superstores [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - November retail sales for narrow passenger vehicles are expected to reach 2.4 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 15.4% and a month-on-month increase of 6.1% [3][14] - The penetration rate for new energy vehicles is projected to be approximately 53.3% in November, indicating a seasonal strengthening of the new energy market [3][14] - The Ministry of Commerce is planning to advance next year's vehicle replacement policy to stabilize market expectations and promote the trade of used cars [3][14] - Major automakers are accelerating the electrification and intelligence of their vehicles, supported by favorable policies that are expected to sustain steady growth in industry sales [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Key News - The China Passenger Car Association forecasts November retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles at 2.4 million units, with new energy vehicle sales expected to reach 1.28 million units [3][14] - The Ministry of Commerce reports that the number of vehicle scrapping and replacement applications has exceeded 2 million, with a 50% year-on-year increase in scrapped vehicle recovery from January to October [3][14] - Xiaopeng Motors is launching its first model, the G6, in the UK market [3][14] - Geely's new brand "firefly" is set to launch its first model in mid-2025 [3][14] 2. Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector outperformed the broader market, with the CSI 300 index declining by 2.60% while the automotive sector fell by only 1.92% [4][18] - The report highlights that the automotive sector's performance ranks 18th among the major sectors in the A-share market this week [4][18] 3. Valuation Trends - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, and automotive parts have seen a decline this week [4][24][25] - The report indicates a slight decrease in the PE ratio for the automotive parts sector [4][25] 4. New Vehicle Releases - Upcoming vehicle launches include the MG7, Zhijie S7, and BinYue, with expected release dates in late November 2024 [4][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry [2] Core Insights - The continuous development of domestic computing power is accompanied by the adoption of liquid cooling solutions, which are becoming essential for improving data center energy efficiency [3][26] - The demand for liquid cooling servers is entering a growth phase characterized by both volume and price increases, with a projected CAGR of 47.6% from 2023 to 2028 in China's liquid cooling server market [27][28] - Nvidia's recent financial performance indicates sustained demand for computing power, which is further supported by the ongoing US-China technological competition that opens up opportunities for domestic alternatives [28][30] Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The quality and scale of computing power are growing in resonance, with policies improving data center energy efficiency. In 2023, China's data center electricity consumption reached 150 billion kWh, a 15.4% increase year-on-year, accounting for 1.63% of total national electricity consumption [3][26] - Liquid cooling solutions are effective in enhancing data center efficiency, with the Chinese liquid cooling server market reaching $1.26 billion in the first half of 2024, a 98.3% year-on-year increase [27][28] - Nvidia reported a record revenue of $35.1 billion for Q3 of the 2025 fiscal year, reflecting a 94% year-on-year growth, indicating strong and ongoing demand for computing power [30] Industry News - Nvidia's Q3 revenue highlights the robust demand for AI computing power, suggesting potential growth opportunities for domestic computing power alternatives due to import restrictions [30] - SpaceX's successful sixth test flight of the Starship and FAA's approval for increased launch frequency signal a competitive acceleration in global satellite internet deployment [31] - The successful completion of 6G integrated testing by China Telecom indicates advancements towards direct satellite communication capabilities [34] - The National Data Bureau's draft guidelines for national data infrastructure construction signify a shift in focus towards data infrastructure, presenting new opportunities for traditional communication equipment manufacturers [35][37] Weekly Review and Recommended Portfolio - The communication sector experienced a decline of 3.56% this week, with a focus on investment opportunities in domestic computing power, satellite internet, and digital infrastructure [38]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is expected to experience a turning point in 2025, indicating the potential for a new cycle [2] - The white liquor sector saw a brief recovery during the Spring Festival in early 2024, but demand weakened post-peak, leading to a gradual valuation adjustment. Stimulus policies introduced in Q3 have since improved market sentiment [2][4] - The mass consumer goods sector has shown signs of fatigue due to weak consumer power, but high-cost performance products are gaining popularity. A moderate recovery in domestic demand is anticipated in 2025, driven by both internal and external factors [2][4] - The overall industry is at a bottom waiting for recovery, with policy space expected to open up [2] Summary by Sections 2024 Review - The food and beverage sector has faced pressure, with a year-to-date decline of 5.41% as of November 15, 2024. The sector's performance has been significantly influenced by macroeconomic conditions and terminal demand [10] - The white liquor sector has declined by 8.10% year-to-date, while the mass consumer goods sector has shown a mixed performance, with soft drinks up by 19.09% [17] Investment Recommendations - For the white liquor sector, it is recommended to focus on undervalued leading companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, among others. Additionally, companies like Shui Jing Fang and Zhen Jiu Li Du are expected to benefit from demand recovery [4] - In the mass consumer goods sector, attention should be paid to the restaurant supply chain, seasoning products, and the beer and beverage segments, which are expected to benefit from consumption policies [4] 2025 Outlook - The industry is expected to see a reversal in fundamentals, with a series of policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand. The GDP growth rate is projected to remain strong, with consumer spending contributing significantly to economic growth [28] - The restaurant sector is showing signs of moderate recovery, with a positive outlook for food and beverage demand as policies take effect [28]

Group 1: Framework and Analysis - The report presents a framework for analyzing U.S. Treasury yields, integrating "real interest rates + inflation expectations" and "risk-neutral rates + term premiums" as two main paradigms of nominal yield analysis[2] - The combined framework results in a four-factor model for U.S. Treasury yields, which includes expected real interest rates, inflation expectations, actual risk premiums, and inflation risk premiums[3] - The analysis indicates that from September 16, 2024, to October 31, 2024, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) increased by 66.99 basis points (bp), with contributions from various factors: expected real interest rates (E(RIR) +13.64bp, 20.36%), inflation expectations (E(π) +9.72bp, 14.51%), risk premium (TP_RRP +32.29bp, 48.20%), and inflation risk premium (TP_IRP +11.34bp, 16.93%)[4] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The expected real interest rate (E(RIR)) reflects strong economic resilience in the U.S., with a potential short-term maintenance at relatively high levels due to the impact of Trump's policy 2.0[6] - Inflation expectations (E(π)) have been slightly revised upwards, but the Federal Reserve maintains a long-term inflation target around 2%, suggesting limited future contributions to Treasury yields from this factor[6] - The term premium related to inflation risk (TP_IRP) is influenced by potential inflation volatility, with the likelihood of significant spikes being low due to the Fed's normalization path and political uncertainties[7] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - Recent trends indicate that U.S. Treasury yields are showing signs of peaking, with upward momentum slowing down, suggesting that the most intense phase of trading related to Trump may have passed[8] - The report anticipates that by the end of 2024, the 10-year Treasury yield may oscillate around 4.7%, particularly if economic resilience continues and the December FOMC meeting results in a pause in rate hikes[9] - In the medium to long term, while normalization of monetary policy is expected to continue, the downward movement of nominal rates may be limited due to the influence of term premiums on long-term yields, potentially leading to a "bear steepening" of the yield curve[9]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 通信 2024 年 11 月 21 日 | --- | --- | |------------------|--------------------------------| | 通信 | 垣信"千帆"出海，全球商业闭环初 | | 优于大市（维持） | | 证券分析师 李宏涛 资格编号：S0120524070003 邮箱：liht＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 34% 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 通信 沪深300 相关研究 1.《博弈加剧，国产核心科技加速》， 2024.11.16 2.《制裁效果边际递减，通信全链突 破》，2024.11.9 3.《美国宣布对华投资限制，聚焦硬 科技投资机会》，2024.11.3 4.《增值电信业务对外开放，国产算 力 或 迎 来 国 际 对 接 缓 冲 区 》， 2024.10.26 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 事件：北京时间 11 月 20 日，上海垣信卫星科技有限公司与巴西国有通信企业 Telecomunica ...

证券分析师 姓名：陈涵泊 资格编号：S0120524040004 邮箱：chenhb3＠tebon.com.cn 证券分析师 姓名：李佩京 资格编号：S0120524090004 邮箱：lipj＠tebon.com.cn 0 证券研究报告 | 行业年度策略 计算机 行业投资评级 | 优于大市（维持） 2024年11月19日 围绕自主可控的新质生产力再创新 ——计算机行业2025年年度策略 研究助理 姓名：王思 邮箱：wangsi＠tebon.com.cn 核心逻辑 新一轮创新周期正在蓄能，重拾信心研发投入有望回暖加速产品迭代。 复盘移动互联网和云计算两大创新周期，都表现出流动性宽松&技术爆发下研发投入增加、新品供给活跃度提升的特征，最终形成科技牛市行情。12-15年（移动互联网）：创业板指和计算机（申万）指数最高点，分别为 3982.25、10340.48，相较12年初，最高累计涨幅达到463.18%、607.75%；19-21年（云计算）：创业板指和计算机（申万）指数最高点，分别为3563.13、6724.39，相较12年初，累计涨幅分别为403.90%、360.25%。 新一轮创新大周期的条件正在完善：一 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Baofeng Energy (600989.SH) [1] Core Views - Baofeng Energy is a leading domestic coal-to-olefins enterprise with a comprehensive "coal-coke-olefins" integrated industrial chain, currently holding coal mining rights capacity of 11.02 million tons/year, coke capacity of 7 million tons/year, and olefins capacity of 2.2 million tons/year [4][25] - The company has shown strong growth potential with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.8% in revenue and 23.9% in net profit from 2013 to 2023, with a gross margin of 37% and a net margin of 22% [4][40] Summary by Sections 1. Baofeng Energy: Domestic Coal-to-Olefins Leader - The company has expanded its scale through acquisitions and project developments, establishing three main business segments: olefins, coking, and fine chemicals [25][29] 2. A Reliable Chemical Growth Leader: Steady Capacity Release and Cost Advantages 2.1. Strong Growth Momentum: Capacity Enters High-Speed Release Period - The company is entering a significant production phase in 2024, with the Inner Mongolia Phase I 3 million tons olefins project expected to start production in November 2023, increasing total olefins capacity to 5.2 million tons/year, approximately 2.4 times the current capacity [5][53] - Future plans include a 500,000 tons/year olefins capacity in Ningdong Phase IV and a 4 million tons/year capacity in Xinjiang, potentially increasing total olefins capacity to 9.7 million tons/year, 4.4 times the current capacity [5][53] 2.2. Significant Cost Advantages: Olefins Cost Curve on the Left Side - The company benefits from a cost advantage in coal-to-olefins production, with a cost saving of 1,490 RMB/ton compared to China Shenhua in 2023 [6][56] - The Inner Mongolia project is expected to further reduce costs by approximately 873 RMB/ton due to advanced technology and shorter transportation distances [6][56] 3. Price Judgments on Olefins: Weakening Correlation with Oil Prices - The correlation between olefins prices and oil prices has weakened, with the sensitivity of olefins prices to oil prices decreasing as production capacity expands [7][9] - The global olefins production capacity growth is expected to slow down, with a projected CAGR of 3.5% for polyethylene and 3.7% for polypropylene from 2024 to 2026 [9][9] 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 65.58 billion RMB, 141.35 billion RMB, and 169.90 billion RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 0.89 RMB, 1.93 RMB, and 2.32 RMB [9][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the beauty and personal care industry [2]. Core Insights - Traditional agency operators like Liren Lizhuang and Yiwang Yichuang are experiencing significant declines, with Liren Lizhuang's revenue in 2023 being only 60% of its peak in 2020, and Yiwang Yichuang showing stagnation from 2020 to 2023 [8][19]. - The report identifies several factors contributing to the decline of traditional operators, including reliance on a single market segment, failure to adapt to new sales channels like Douyin, and the shift of brands from agency partnerships to in-house teams [8][19]. - Companies like Qingmu Technology and Ruoyuchen are showing high growth by adapting their business models and expanding into new markets [19][20]. Summary by Sections Traditional Agency Operators - Liren Lizhuang's revenue in 2023 was only 60% of its 2020 peak, with a continued decline in net profit growth in Q1-Q3 of 2024 compared to 2023 [8]. - Yiwang Yichuang's performance has been stagnant from 2020 to 2023, with a noticeable drop in profits [8]. - Key reasons for the decline include a narrow focus on specific product categories, rapid changes in sales channels, and the inability to maintain brand partnerships as brands shift to self-managed teams [8][19]. New Business Models - Water Sheep Co. has transitioned from a traditional TP model to a CP model, focusing on sustainable partnerships with brands and offering comprehensive operational services [11]. - Qingmu Technology has embraced high-growth sectors, maintaining a stable revenue share from agency operations while expanding into new categories and leveraging technology for growth [16][19]. - Both companies are actively acquiring or incubating their own brands, with Water Sheep's acquisition of the luxury brand Ifidan showing promising results [20][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that traditional agency operators should seek transformation by diversifying product categories, exploring new sales channels, and collaborating with new brands to sustain growth [27]. - The shift from agency to brand ownership is highlighted as a strategic move for companies like Ruoyuchen and Qingmu Technology, which have the operational resources and e-commerce expertise to support this transition [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer industry [2]. Core Insights - North American AI application companies have exceeded performance expectations, and the future demand for infrastructure is becoming clearer [4]. - The acceleration of AI applications by major internet companies is expected to lead to bulk orders for domestic training cards to meet high-speed inference needs [6]. - The development of AI terminals is promising, with advancements in AI glasses and smart driving technologies anticipated [7]. Summary by Sections Application Developments - Companies like AppLovin, Palantir, and Salesforce have shown significant progress in their respective fields, driving stock performance. AppLovin's stock rose by 630.46% from the beginning of 2024 to November 15, 2024, while Palantir's revenue reached $726 million, a 30% year-on-year increase, with a stock rise of 283.05% in the same period. Salesforce's new Agentforce platform has also contributed to a 24.16% stock increase [5]. Cloud Computing and AI Infrastructure - The report highlights three catalysts for domestic computing power: 1. Overseas policies restricting advanced chip supplies to mainland China, increasing the urgency for domestic production. 2. Domestic policies supporting AI computing power, particularly in the context of self-controlled innovation. 3. The expected increase in domestic AI chip production as a response to these policies [5]. AI Terminal Innovations - The report notes advancements in AI glasses, with companies like Meta and Apple making significant moves in this space. Additionally, Tesla's upcoming FSD V13 is expected to enhance autonomous driving capabilities significantly [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in domestic computing power, AI glasses, smart driving, and AI smartphones, including HaiGuang Information, Huafeng Technology, and others [7].