Market Overview - During the week of December 8-12, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.84% and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.74%[6] - The average daily trading volume in the market was 1.95 trillion yuan, up from 1.70 trillion yuan the previous week[6] E-commerce in Latin America - Latin America's e-commerce market is experiencing rapid growth, with a total transaction volume of $507 billion in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 27%[16] - The e-commerce penetration rate in Latin America is currently between 12-15%, which is higher than Southeast Asia's 10-13% but significantly lower than China's approximately 45%[16] Health Sector Insights - The percentage of flu-like illness (ILI) cases in southern provinces reached 11.1%, up from 10.3% the previous week and significantly higher than the 2022-2024 average of 3.9%[28] - The demand for flu vaccines and antiviral medications is expected to rise, with sales of oseltamivir increasing by 237% in the last week of November[33] Hard Technology Sector - The panel industry reported a cumulative net profit of 6.035 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 161%[38] - The depreciation costs for panel manufacturers are expected to decline as production lines built during the 2018-2020 expansion phase reach the end of their depreciation periods[38] High-end Manufacturing - In November 2025, excavator sales reached 20,027 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, with domestic sales up by 9.11% and exports up by 18.8%[45] - The demand for excavators is driven by infrastructure projects and equipment upgrades, supported by the Belt and Road Initiative[46]

Group 1 - The 2026 US economy is expected to follow a "first suppress then rise" rhythm, influenced by midterm elections and monetary policy [3][8] - The midterm elections will see intensified political competition, with Trump likely to focus on maintaining support for large tech companies through tax incentives while also addressing issues for small businesses and low-income groups [3][11] - The monetary policy is anticipated to be cautious until the Fed chair transition in May 2026, with a potential shift to a more accommodative stance thereafter [3][26] Group 2 - Investment in the AI sector has been a significant driver of the US economy, with major tech companies' capital expenditures expected to slow down in 2026, leading to a cooling market sentiment [3][33] - The capital expenditures of the seven major tech companies are projected to be over 50% of their operating cash flow, with Amazon reaching over 90%, indicating a need for revenue growth to sustain such investments [3][38] - The geopolitical landscape remains turbulent, with ongoing pressures from the midterm elections potentially prompting the Trump administration to seek breakthroughs in the Russia-Ukraine situation [3][41] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of asset allocation strategies, focusing on opportunities within the US AI sector and European defense and manufacturing industries [3][45] - The anticipated economic growth from the "Great Beautiful Act" is projected to increase GDP by 0.9% in 2026, supporting the overall economic outlook [3][22] - The report suggests that traditional industries and small businesses may benefit more from interest rate declines compared to large tech firms, which are less sensitive to rate changes [3][32]

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a volume contraction with the technology index leading the decline, as the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.55% to 3867.92 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.10% to 13112.09 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.77% to 3137.80 points, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards defensive sectors [2][5] - The total market turnover was 1.79 trillion, a decrease of 15.3% from the previous trading day, reflecting a growing cautious sentiment among investors [2][5] Sector Performance - Consumer and financial sectors showed strength, with the dairy index surging by 4.41% following a national medical insurance meeting that raised expectations for increased demand for infant formula [5] - The insurance sector also performed well, with the Insurance Select Index rising by 3.09%, driven by a reduction in risk factors for insurance capital and a shift towards defensive market styles [5] - In contrast, the technology sector faced significant declines, with indices for electronics, communications, computers, media, and machinery dropping between 1.35% and 2.40%, reflecting concerns over a potential saturation in AI computing demand [5] Bond Market - The government bond futures market continued to adjust, with the 30-year contract hitting a new low for the year, closing down 0.99% at 111.53 [10] - The central bank maintained a loose liquidity environment, conducting a net injection of 86 billion through reverse repos, indicating a "short-term tight, long-term loose" operational strategy [10] Commodity Market - Precious metals continued to show strength, with gold futures rising by 1.92% to 983.16 yuan per gram, supported by expectations of further monetary easing following a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [10] - Industrial commodities rebounded, with significant increases in aluminum oxide and coking coal prices, suggesting a potential recovery in sectors previously affected by "involution" competition [10][12] Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a balanced allocation in technology and consumer sectors, as the central economic work conference emphasizes the importance of AI and domestic demand expansion [7][15] - The focus on "anti-involution" policies may provide opportunities in industrial commodities, with a recommendation to monitor the implementation of related policies [10][15] Trading Hotspots - Key investment themes include high dividend stocks, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, AI applications, and consumer sectors, with a focus on their respective market dynamics and potential growth drivers [13][15]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 12 月 12 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 相关研究 放量上涨，微盘调整 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 摘要。2025 年 12 月 12 日周五，A 股市场回暖上涨，成交额 2.12 万亿创近一个 月新高；国债期货市场全线调整；商品指数微涨，焦煤延续弱势。 一、市场行情分析 1）股票市场：市场回暖，放量上涨，微盘连续调整 回暖上涨，微盘连续调整。今日 A 股核心指数集体反弹，成长类指数表现更优。 上证指数低开后震荡回升，收盘报 3889.35 点，涨幅 0.41%；深证成指报 13258.33 点，涨幅 0.84%；创业板指收于 3194.36 点，涨幅 0.97%。科创 50 指数表现突 出，上涨 1.74%，或反映硬科技板块情绪升温。 ...

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a significant pullback, with major indices declining. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.70% to 3873.32 points, while the Shenzhen Component dropped by 1.27% to 13147.39 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.41% to 3163.67 points. The overall market saw 4377 stocks decline, representing over 80% of the total [3][6] - The market's trading volume reached 1.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.2% from the previous trading day, indicating a notable profit-taking sentiment among investors [3] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as banking and defense industry showed slight gains, with increases of 0.34% and 0.22% respectively. In contrast, sectors like coal and real estate faced significant declines, reflecting a "policy fulfillment + profit-taking" characteristic [6][7] - The technology sector led the adjustments, while thematic investments in areas like new energy and commercial aerospace saw localized activity, with notable gains in indices related to near-term new stocks and nuclear fusion [6][7] Bond Market - The government bond futures market showed a continued recovery, with all contract maturities rising. The 30-year main contract closed at 113.19 yuan, up 0.45%, while the 10-year contract rose by 0.09% to 108.100 yuan [11] - The liquidity in the interbank market remained ample, with the central bank conducting a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 118.6 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%. Despite a net withdrawal of 62.2 billion yuan, the overall liquidity pressure was low [11] Commodity Market - The commodity market displayed significant divergence, with lithium carbonate and silver showing strength, while coking coal and coke experienced substantial declines. The Nanhua Commodity Index fell by 0.23% [13] - Coking coal has seen a cumulative decline of over 26% since early November, indicating a bearish market driven by supply-demand pressures [13] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a balanced investment approach across technology growth, dividend stocks, and cyclical resources, while emphasizing the importance of monitoring low-valuation and policy-sensitive sectors [13] - In the bond market, a "short-end strong, long-end oscillation" pattern is expected to continue, with a focus on the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference for guidance on fiscal and monetary policy coordination [11][13]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut on December 10, 2025, aligning with market expectations[5] - This marks the third consecutive 25 basis point cut, with internal divisions evident among committee members[5] - The dot plot indicates a potential rate cut in 2026, with the median forecast remaining in the 3.25%-3.5% range, suggesting one cut[5] Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Post-decision, market risk appetite increased, with major U.S. stock indices rising and bond yields declining[5] - The Fed's decision to initiate Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) involves buying $40 billion in short-term Treasury securities over the next 30 days to ensure adequate reserves[5] - The current liquidity environment is expected to remain ample, reducing the likelihood of short-term capital market disruptions[5] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, which could prompt the Fed to tighten policy again[7] - Global economic conditions may weaken, impacting U.S. corporate earnings and subsequently affecting stock markets[7] - Escalation of geopolitical tensions could lead to increased market volatility and risk aversion[7]

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a slight decline on December 10, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23% to 3900.5 points, while the Shenzhen Component rose 0.29% [3][5] - The trading volume in the A-share market was 1.79 trillion yuan, indicating a healthy level despite the overall market adjustment [3][5] - The technology sector remained strong, with active performance in robotics, despite the termination of a significant asset restructuring deal [5][6] Bond Market - The government bond futures market showed a continuous recovery, with all main contracts rising, particularly the 30-year contract which increased by 0.30% to 112.790 yuan [9] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 189.8 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 110.5 billion yuan into the market [9] - The short-term interest rates, particularly the overnight Shibor, reached a new low since August 2023, indicating a potential easing of monetary policy [9] Commodity Market - The commodity market showed mixed results, with precious metals leading the gains; silver prices rose by 5.44% to 14,373 yuan per kilogram [9][10] - The aluminum market faced a significant decline, with prices dropping by 3.17% due to supply and demand dynamics [10] - The overall performance of industrial commodities remained weak, with several products hitting yearly lows, suggesting insufficient demand [12] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several investment themes, including dividend stocks due to attractive yields, AI applications driven by major tech advancements, and consumer sectors benefiting from currency appreciation [11] - The current market environment is characterized by a balance between policy signals and year-end liquidity, suggesting a diversified investment approach across technology, dividends, and cyclical resources [11][12]

Group 1: Inflation Overview - In November 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%[4] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months[4] - Food prices shifted from a decline of 2.9% to a slight increase of 0.2%, contributing positively to the CPI[4] Group 2: PPI and Industrial Prices - The PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, with the decline slightly widening from the previous month's -2.1%[4] - The mining industry saw a month-on-month price increase of 1.7%, while coal mining prices surged by 4.1% due to winter energy demand[3] - Prices in the raw materials sector fell by 2.9% year-on-year, indicating continued supply pressure in some industries[3] Group 3: Sector Performance - Non-food prices rose by 0.8% year-on-year, with household goods prices increasing by 4.9%[4] - The price of fresh vegetables rebounded significantly, rising by 14.5% year-on-year after nine months of decline[4] - Durable goods prices decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, reflecting weak demand in that segment[5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Expectations suggest that food price declines may continue to narrow, potentially lifting CPI further[5] - Industrial product prices are anticipated to stabilize and improve due to ongoing supply-side optimization and marginal demand recovery[5] - Risks include escalating US-China trade tensions and uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions[5]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 12 月 09 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 A 股小幅调整，商品跌多涨少 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 摘要。2025 年 12 月 9 日周二，A 股市场小幅缩量调整；国债期货市场回暖；商品 期货普遍下跌，工业品延续承压。 一、市场行情分析 图 1：主要行业板块涨跌幅 资料来源：Wind，德邦研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 1）股票市场：缩量分化调整，跌多涨少 缩量分化调整，跌多涨少。今日 A 股市场呈现分化格局，主要指数涨跌互现，科 技成长板块逆势走强，周期与地产链深度调整。上证指数低开后震荡下行，收盘报 3909.52 点，下跌 0.37%；深证成指报 13277.36 点，跌 0.39%；创业板指表现亮 眼 ...

Export Performance - In November 2025, China's export value (in USD) increased by 5.9% year-on-year, reversing the previous month's decline[4] - Exports to the EU surged by 14.8%, while exports to Japan and South Korea rose by 3.2%[4] - Cumulative export growth for electromechanical products and high-tech products was significant, at 8.0% and 6.6% respectively[4] Import Trends - November 2025 saw a 1.9% year-on-year increase in import value (in USD), marking six consecutive months of positive growth[5] - Major contributors to import growth included Brazil (19.4%) and Africa (13.4%), while imports from the US fell by 19.1%[5] - Cumulative import growth for high-tech products and electromechanical products was 9.6% and 5.5% respectively[5] Trade Surplus and Competitiveness - The trade surplus in November 2025 rebounded to $111.68 billion, indicating strong industrial competitiveness[6] - The surplus with the EU and ASEAN increased, while the deficit with Japan and South Korea narrowed significantly[7] - The trade dynamics suggest a growing importance of ASEAN in China's foreign trade landscape[7] Market Outlook - The probability of continued external demand recovery is high, supported by expected improvements in the US economy and the holiday season[8] - The focus in the market is shifting towards financial and technology sectors, driven by recent policy stability following the US-China summit[8] - Risks include potential escalations in US-China tensions and geopolitical crises that could impact trade and financial markets[17]