[ T able_StockInfo] 2025 年 03 月 08 日 证券研究报告•2024 年年报点评 TCL 智家（002668）家用电器 目标价：——元（6 个月） 持有 （维持） 当前价：11.66 元 外销维持高增长，两大主体释放盈利能力 | [Table_MainProfit] 指标/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 18360.80 | 20488.60 | 22789.58 | 25128.46 | | 增长率 | 20.96% | 11.59% | 11.23% | 10.26% | | 归属母公司净利润（百万元） | 1019.25 | 1172.63 | 1322.04 | 1501.83 | | 增长率 | 29.58% | 15.05% | 12.74% | 13.60% | | 每股收益 EPS（元） | 0.94 | 1.08 | 1.22 | 1.39 | | 净资产收益率 ROE | 54.78% | 36.96% | 29.41% | 25 ...

[ T able_StockInfo] 2025 年 03 月 08 日 证券研究报告•2024 年年报点评 TCL 智家（002668）家用电器 目标价：——元（6 个月） 持有 （维持） 当前价：11.66 元 外销维持高增长，两大主体释放盈利能力 | [Table_MainProfit] 指标/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 18360.80 | 20488.60 | 22789.58 | 25128.46 | | 增长率 | 20.96% | 11.59% | 11.23% | 10.26% | | 归属母公司净利润（百万元） | 1019.25 | 1172.63 | 1322.04 | 1501.83 | | 增长率 | 29.58% | 15.05% | 12.74% | 13.60% | | 每股收益 EPS（元） | 0.94 | 1.08 | 1.22 | 1.39 | | 净资产收益率 ROE | 54.78% | 36.96% | 29.41% | 25 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a recommendation for investors to continuously pay attention to the company [62]. Core Viewpoints - EDA Group Holdings is positioned as a leading player in the overseas warehouse sector, leveraging technology to build a global logistics network [11][19]. - The company has experienced rapid revenue growth, with a 70.6% year-on-year increase in 2023, reaching 1.21 billion CNY, and a projected revenue of 1.77 billion CNY in 2024 [7][43]. - The overseas warehouse model is expected to gain further traction due to favorable tax policies for small packages in the U.S., enhancing local delivery capabilities and predictability [7][41]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - EDA Group Holdings is the first listed company in China focusing on overseas warehouses, providing end-to-end supply chain solutions for cross-border e-commerce [11][13]. - The company operates 56 overseas warehouses across the U.S., Canada, the UK, Germany, and Australia, covering over 40 cities [19]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 was 1.21 billion CNY, with a projected increase to 1.77 billion CNY in 2024 and 2.41 billion CNY in 2025 [2][60]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 69.4 million CNY, expected to rise to 88.13 million CNY in 2024 [2][60]. - The company’s EPS is projected to grow from 0.16 CNY in 2023 to 0.50 CNY in 2026 [2][60]. Business Model - The company’s business model includes both headway international freight services and tail-end fulfillment services, with the latter accounting for 78.5% of revenue in 2023 [11][13]. - The tail-end fulfillment service saw a 95.9% increase in order volume in 2023, contributing significantly to revenue growth [43]. Market Trends - The B2C export e-commerce logistics service market has grown from 113.6 billion CNY in 2017 to 402.4 billion CNY in 2022, with a projected market size of 621.3 billion CNY by 2027 [34][28]. - The overseas warehouse model is anticipated to surpass the direct mail model as the primary cross-border logistics method due to its advantages in delivery speed and reliability [34][41]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The company’s gross profit for 2023 was 200 million CNY, with a gross margin of 16.3%, slightly declining due to rising costs [48]. - The sales cost structure indicates that logistics costs account for 74.3% of total sales costs, with potential for improved bargaining power as service volumes increase [50].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a recommendation for investors to continuously pay attention to the company [62] Core Viewpoints - EDA Group Holdings is positioned as a leading player in the overseas warehouse sector, leveraging technology to build a global logistics network. The company has established 56 overseas warehouses across the US, Canada, UK, Germany, and Australia, enhancing its logistics capabilities [7][19] - The company has experienced rapid revenue growth, with a 70.6% year-on-year increase in 2023, reaching 1.21 billion CNY, and a 61.6% increase in the first half of 2024, amounting to 750 million CNY. This growth is primarily driven by the increase in last-mile delivery service orders [7][43] - The overseas warehouse model is expected to gain further traction due to the fluctuating US tax policies on small packages, which enhances the demand for localized delivery and predictable shipping times [7][23] Summary by Sections Company Overview - EDA Group Holdings is the first listed company in China focusing on overseas warehouses, providing end-to-end supply chain solutions for cross-border e-commerce. The company has expanded its overseas warehouse network significantly since its establishment in 2014 [11][19] Financial Performance - The company forecasts significant revenue growth from 2024 to 2026, with expected revenues of 1.77 billion CNY, 2.41 billion CNY, and 3.18 billion CNY respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 880 million CNY, 1.46 billion CNY, and 2.2 billion CNY for the same period [60][62] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 0.20 CNY in 2024 to 0.50 CNY in 2026, reflecting the company's strong growth trajectory [60][62] Market Dynamics - The B2C cross-border e-commerce market in China has shown robust growth, with the market size increasing from 924.5 billion CNY in 2017 to an estimated 32.25 trillion CNY in 2022, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.4% [28] - The logistics service market for B2C export e-commerce is also expanding rapidly, with the market size projected to reach 621.3 billion CNY by 2027 [34] Business Model - The company operates under a dual model of headway international freight services and last-mile delivery services, with the latter accounting for 78.5% of its revenue in 2023. The last-mile delivery service has seen a 95.9% increase in order volume year-on-year [11][43] - The overseas warehouse model allows for faster and more predictable delivery times, which is becoming increasingly preferred over traditional direct mail methods [32][34] Competitive Position - EDA Group Holdings is expected to enhance its market share as the demand for overseas warehouses grows alongside the development of cross-border e-commerce in China. The company aims to optimize its warehouse layout and reduce costs through AI and large model technologies [62]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry as of March 9, 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of the innovative drug sector in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, noting that 72 stocks rose while 36 fell during the first week of March 2025. The top gainers included Maibo Pharmaceutical-B (up 78.79%), Heptares Therapeutics-B (up 30.19%), and CloudTop New Drug-B (up 29.49%) [3][21]. - The A-share innovative drug sector experienced a slight decline of 0.17%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.56 percentage points, while the biopharmaceutical sector rose by 0.65%. Over the past six months, the A-share innovative drug sector has dropped by 11.89%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 9.74 percentage points [22]. - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector saw an increase of 3.37%, but still underperformed the Hang Seng Index by 2.25 percentage points. Over the last six months, this sector has declined by 19.37%, significantly trailing the Hang Seng Index by 28.13 percentage points [24]. - The report notes that there were no new drug approvals in China or abroad during the week, with no new indications approved for existing drugs [5][6][29][38]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the first week of March 2025, the A-share innovative drug sector saw a decline of 0.17%, while the Hong Kong sector increased by 3.37. The XBI index in the US fell by 1.68% [3][21][26]. - The report indicates that the A-share innovative drug sector has cumulatively decreased by 11.89% over the past six months, while the Hong Kong sector has seen a decline of 19.37% [22][24]. Drug Approval and Clinical Trials - No new drugs were approved in China or internationally during the week, with a total of 52 clinical trials initiated domestically, including 26 in Phase I, 15 in Phase II, and 9 in Phase III [5][30][31][38]. - The report emphasizes the lack of new drug approvals in major markets such as the US, Europe, and Japan during the same period [6][31][35]. Key Transactions - The report details 8 significant global transactions, with notable agreements including Kyorin Pharmaceutical's deal with Novartis for $832.5 million and Gubra's agreement with AbbVie for $2.225 billion [7][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry as of March 9, 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth in the automotive sector, with February wholesale passenger car sales reaching 1.781 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35% but a month-on-month decrease of 15%. Cumulatively, 3.882 million units have been sold this year, reflecting a 13% year-on-year growth [6][31]. - The new energy vehicle (NEV) segment saw wholesale sales of 842,000 units in February, marking an 82% year-on-year increase, although it decreased by 5% month-on-month. Year-to-date, NEV sales total 1.732 million units, up 49% year-on-year [6][31]. - The report emphasizes the impact of government policies, with over 700,000 applications for vehicle replacement subsidies and over 300,000 for scrapping subsidies received since the beginning of 2025, indicating effective policy implementation [6][31]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - February wholesale passenger car sales were 1.781 million units, up 35% year-on-year and down 15% month-on-month. The cumulative sales for January and February reached 3.882 million units, a 13% increase year-on-year. The growth is primarily driven by policy support [31][32]. - Key stocks to watch include BYD (002594), Geely Automobile (0175.HK), Xpeng Motors (9868.HK), SAIC Motor (600104), Changan Automobile (000625), and GAC Group (601238) [32]. New Energy Vehicles - NEV wholesale sales in February were 842,000 units, an 82% year-on-year increase but a 5% decrease month-on-month. Cumulative sales for the year reached 1.732 million units, reflecting a 49% year-on-year growth. The continuation of the vehicle replacement policy is expected to further boost sales [31][32]. - Key stocks in this segment include BYD (002594), Geely Automobile (0175.HK), Huayu Automotive (600741), Xinquan (603179), Doli Technology (001311), Meilixin (301307), Sulian (301397), Chuanhuan Technology (300547), and Wuxi Zhenhua (605319) [32]. Smart Vehicles - Geely's Galaxy brand announced plans to launch a flagship product equipped with the Qianli Haohan H7 level smart driving solution later this year. The company aims to promote "fuel-electric equality" and "safety equality" in smart driving [31][33]. - Key stocks to monitor include BYD (002594), Geely Automobile (0175.HK), and SAIC Motor (600104) for complete vehicles, and Desay SV (002920), Huayang Group (002906), and others for components [33]. Heavy Trucks - In February, heavy truck wholesale sales reached approximately 80,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 11% and a year-on-year growth of 34%. The report suggests monitoring the impact of the new scrapping subsidy policy for National IV trucks on the heavy truck market [31]. - Recommended stocks include Weichai Power (2338.HK/000338), China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (3808.HK/000951), and Tianrun Industrial (002283) [31].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" investment rating to the company, indicating a cautious outlook for the next six months [29]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing short-term performance pressure due to a decline in demand for copper extraction agents from key customers, alongside rising costs and expenses. However, the long-term logic of wet copper metallurgy replacement remains intact, with expectations for continued growth in copper extraction agent demand driven by global industrialization and the development of new energy industries [6][29]. - The company has made significant progress in launching new products, including new energy metal extraction agents and acid mist suppressants, which are expected to lay a solid foundation for future growth [6][29]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 330.48 million yuan, a decrease of 25.21% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 80.17 million yuan, down 46.48% year-on-year [2][6]. - The company's revenue from metal extraction agents is expected to decline by 27.7% in 2024, followed by a recovery of 20% in 2025 and 15% in 2026. The gross margin for metal extraction agents is projected to be 38.0% in 2024, improving to 39.0% by 2026 [26][29]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 25.36 billion yuan and a current share price of 21.29 yuan, with a PE ratio of 32 for 2024 and 24 for 2025 [5][30]. Business Overview - The company is a leading player in the global copper extraction agent market and specializes in the manufacturing of specialty chemicals. It has broken the foreign technology monopoly and is recognized as a domestic leader and internationally known enterprise in this field [7][11]. - The company’s products are primarily used in wet metallurgy, new energy battery metal recycling, and urban mineral resource recycling, with over 90% of its revenue coming from metal extraction agents [16][19]. Market Position - The company has established a strong customer base, including major global mining companies and top-tier enterprises in the new energy sector. Its international sales have been stable, with a significant portion of revenue coming from overseas markets [17][19]. - The company has been recognized for its innovation and has received various honors, including being named a "specialized and innovative" small giant enterprise [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" investment rating to the company, indicating a cautious outlook for the next six months [29]. Core Insights - The company experienced a short-term performance pressure due to a decline in demand for copper extraction agents from key customers, alongside increased costs and expenses. However, the long-term logic of wet copper metallurgy replacement remains intact, with expectations for continued growth in copper extraction agent demand driven by global industrialization and the development of new energy industries [6][29]. - The company is recognized as a leading player in the global copper extraction agent market and is actively expanding its product offerings, including new energy metal extraction agents and acid mist suppressants, which have shown positive progress [6][29]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 330.48 million yuan, a decrease of 25.21% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 80.17 million yuan, down 46.48% year-on-year [2][6]. - The company's revenue from metal extraction agents is expected to decline by 27.7% in 2024, followed by a recovery of 20% in 2025 and 15% in 2026 [25][26]. - The gross margin for metal extraction agents is projected to be 38.0% in 2024, improving to 39.0% by 2026 [26]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established itself as a domestic leader and internationally recognized player in the copper extraction agent sector, with a strong focus on R&D and innovation [7][11]. - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the chairman holding 38.6% of the shares, which allows for strong decision-making capabilities [8][10]. - The company is actively pursuing international clients while also increasing its domestic market presence, with domestic revenue rising to 65.2% of total revenue in 2023 [17][19]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the company's performance will improve as external conditions stabilize and its investment projects begin to yield results, particularly in the context of the growing demand for copper extraction agents driven by the new energy sector [6][29]. - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge through its focus on technological advancements and product diversification, positioning itself well for future growth [6][29].

Trade Data Overview - In January-February 2025, China's total goods trade (imports and exports) decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, with exports growing by 2.3% and imports declining by 8.4%[2] - The trade surplus reached $170.52 billion, an increase of $45.88 billion compared to the same period last year[2] - Adjusted for working days, total trade increased by 2.8%, with exports up by 7.6% and imports down by 3.6%[2] Export Dynamics - ASEAN remained China's largest trading partner, with trade totaling 143.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%[2] - Exports to ASEAN were 87.19 billion yuan, up 5.7%, while imports from ASEAN fell by 1.3%[2] - Trade with the US totaled 102.07 billion yuan, a 2.4% increase, with exports to the US at 75.56 billion yuan, up 2.3%[2] Import Trends - Imports of major raw materials showed a decline, with food, soybeans, and edible oils down by 35.6%, 14.8%, and 8.4% respectively[4] - The import of natural and synthetic rubber increased significantly by 57.7%[4] - Overall, imports of most major commodities decreased, with iron ore and crude oil imports down by over 10%[4] Sector Performance - Machinery and electrical products saw a relatively high export growth of 4.2%, while downstream consumer goods exports weakened significantly, with ceramics and footwear down by 30.4% and 18.3% respectively[3] - Fertilizer exports surged by 52.6%, indicating strong demand in this sector[3] Future Outlook - The "export rush" behavior among enterprises is expected to continue, particularly in response to external pressures such as tariffs from the US[2] - Import growth is anticipated to recover moderately as domestic fiscal spending increases and policies to boost domestic demand take effect[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry, highlighting potential opportunities in innovative and generic drug companies [9]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes three main investment themes: innovation and international expansion, thematic investments, and dividend opportunities [2][19]. - The government plans to optimize drug procurement policies in 2025, which is expected to enhance quality assessments and regulations [17]. - The pharmaceutical industry has shown resilience, with a year-to-date increase of 2.19%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.60 percentage points [33]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy and Key Stocks - The pharmaceutical index rose by 1.06% in the week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.35 percentage points, ranking 20th in industry performance [33]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong growth potential, such as 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine), 亿帆医药 (Yifan Pharmaceutical), and 康辰药业 (Kangchen Pharmaceutical) [9][25]. Market Performance - The current valuation level of the pharmaceutical industry (PE-TTM) is 26.69 times, with a premium of 73.86% over the entire A-share market [35]. - The best-performing sub-sector this week was in vitro diagnostics, which increased by 4.9% [8]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - The report notes that the National Medical Insurance Administration has implemented ten rounds of national drug procurement, achieving an average price reduction of over 50% [17]. - In 2025, the number of drugs subject to national procurement is expected to reach 700, indicating a significant focus on quality and consistency in drug production [17]. Thematic Investment Opportunities - The report identifies key areas for thematic investments, including domestic weight-loss drugs, AI in medical imaging, and policies stimulating consumer healthcare [19]. - The report also highlights the importance of dividend-paying stocks as a defensive investment strategy, especially as the 10-year government bond yield falls below 2% [19]. Recommended Stock Combinations - The report provides a list of recommended stocks across different markets, including a robust combination of companies in the pharmaceutical sector, such as 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine) and 科伦药业 (Kelun Pharmaceutical) [9][20].