| [Table_MainProfit] 指标/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 11212.65 | 11821.85 | 12476.16 | 13204.77 | | 增长率 | 0.10% | 5.43% | 5.53% | 5.84% | | 归属母公司净利润（百万元） | 1577.40 | 1637.52 | 1732.72 | 1850.45 | | 增长率 | -8.97% | 3.81% | 5.81% | 6.79% | | 每股收益 EPS（元） | 1.67 | 1.73 | 1.83 | 1.96 | | 净资产收益率 ROE | 13.81% | 13.32%13.21% | | 13.21% | | PE | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | | PB | 1.65 | 1.53 | 1.44 | 1.34 | [ T able_StockInfo] 2025 年 04 月 30 日 证券研究报告•2024年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 老 ...

[ T able_StockInfo] 2025 年 04 月 30 日 证券研究报告•2024年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 老板电器（002508）家用电器 目标价：——元（6 个月） 买入（维持） 当前价：19.65 元 国补拉动行业增长，分红比例创新高 | [Table_MainProfit] 指标/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 11212.65 | 11821.85 | 12476.16 | 13204.77 | | 增长率 | 0.10% | 5.43% | 5.53% | 5.84% | | 归属母公司净利润（百万元） | 1577.40 | 1637.52 | 1732.72 | 1850.45 | | 增长率 | -8.97% | 3.81% | 5.81% | 6.79% | | 每股收益 EPS（元） | 1.67 | 1.73 | 1.83 | 1.96 | | 净资产收益率 ROE | 13.81% | 13.32% | 13.21% | 13.2 ...

[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 04 月 30 日 证券研究报告•宏观简评报告 重要事件点评 关税博弈观察：影响、应对与演绎 摘要 后续博弈与对策。后续中美全面提高关税税率意义不大，但部分行业仍面临加 征高额关税风险，还可能打压中国"借道"东南亚出口美国的商品，且在货币 领域或加大博弈，如通过汇率、国际支付手段等。企业应对时，短期可调整订 单、管理库存、转嫁成本，同时政府可提供政策支持，如设立专项基金补贴受 冲击企业，利用金融工具支持中小外贸企业。中长期来看，企业可海外建厂多 元化布局产能，拓展新兴市场降低对美依赖，加大科技自研和创新加快国产替 代。从宏观政策层面，国内政策工具箱充足，逆周期调控政策靠前加力，"国 家队"增持稳定市场，货币政策有望降准降息释放流动性、降低融资成本，财 政政策加快支出、提速债券发行带动内需。此外，我国通过多元化战略深化与 多国经贸合作，增强全球供应链韧性，共同应对美国单边关税。 风险提示：市场需求萎缩风险，进出口企业成本增加风险，汇率波动风险等。 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：叶凡 执业证号：S1250520060001 电话：010- ...

[Table_Summary] GAN_GRU因子：基于前期报告《量价时序特征挖掘模型在深度学习因子中的 应用》（2024年 7月 11日）中提到的 GAN_GRU 模型，定期更新 GAN_GRU 因子自 2024年以来表现情况。其中 GAN_GRU因子为利用生成式对抗神经网 络 GAN 模型进行量价时序特征处理后再利用 GRU 模型进行时序特征编码得 到的选股因子。 表现跟踪：自 2019 年 1 月至 2025 年 4 月，月频调仓的基础上，GAN_GRU 因子在全 A 范围内 IC均值 11.73%，多头组合年化超额收益率 24.89%；截至 2025 年 4 月 28 日，GAN_GRU 最新一期 IC 为 0.22%，近一年 IC 均值为 11.44%。 因子表现：截至 2025年 4月，4月当期因子 IC排名前五的行业分别为银行、 钢铁、非银金融、纺织服饰、家用电器；近一年因子 IC 均值排名前五的行业 分别为非银金融、建筑装饰、交通运输、通信、商贸零售。4 月当期多头组合 超额收益最高的五个行业（除综合）分别为纺织服饰、基础化工、汽车、轻工 制造以及食品饮料，多头组合相对行业指数超额收益分别为 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of —— yuan over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The company is actively expanding its growth opportunities in the screw rod sector and has shown strong revenue and profit growth in recent quarters [7]. - The company reported a revenue of 680.28 million yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.63%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 211.61 million yuan, up 14.76% year-on-year [7]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its profitability and has achieved a gross margin of 51.9% in 2024, with a net margin of 32.3% [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company expects revenues to grow from 680.28 million yuan in 2024 to 1,507.60 million yuan by 2027, with compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of 32.4% [2][12]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The net profit is projected to increase from 211.61 million yuan in 2024 to 490.86 million yuan in 2027, with significant growth rates in the coming years [2][12]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is expected to rise from 1.55 yuan in 2024 to 3.60 yuan in 2027 [2][12]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: The ROE is forecasted to improve from 15.72% in 2024 to 21.09% in 2027 [2][12]. Business Segment Performance - **Valve Transmission Group**: Revenue from this segment is expected to grow from 500.17 million yuan in 2024 to 1,009.46 million yuan by 2027, with a gross margin of 56% by 2025 [9]. - **Cold Forged Precision Wire**: This segment is projected to see revenue growth from 40 million yuan in 2024 to 190.44 million yuan in 2027, with an improving gross margin reaching 10% by 2027 [9]. - **Overseas Business Growth**: The company has reported a 47% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue, driven by new projects and increased production capacity [7]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is investing approximately 500 million yuan in establishing a new joint venture focused on precision transmission components, which is expected to enhance its market position in the screw rod sector [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [1][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming national subsidy policies, which are anticipated to stimulate consumer demand and support sales growth in the smart mattress sector [5][6]. - The company has established a strong product matrix centered around smart mattresses, indicating a positive growth outlook in this segment [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.60 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 770 million yuan, a decrease of 4.4% year-on-year [5]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.12 billion yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 120 million yuan, down 16.4% year-on-year [5]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 50.1%, with a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Product and Sales Channel Analysis - The company’s main product categories, including mattresses, bed frames, and sofas, showed stable sales growth, with mattress sales increasing by 5.1% year-on-year [5]. - The company is focusing on upgrading offline stores and expanding online channels, with significant growth in e-commerce sales [5]. - The company has established a diversified sales network covering both domestic and international markets, with a notable increase in overseas sales [5]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 1.99 yuan, 2.10 yuan, and 2.27 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15, 14, and 13 [7][8]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory, driven by its strong brand and product capabilities, alongside the anticipated recovery in downstream demand due to national subsidy policies [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company, San Yang Ma, is positioned as a leader in public-rail intermodal logistics, focusing on the automotive logistics sector, which is expected to benefit from the recovery of the automotive market [7][8] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 11.82 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20.6%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline by 57.3% due to increased financial expenses [7][8] - The report highlights the significant increase in financial expenses due to convertible bond interest, which has impacted profitability [7][8] Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecast: - 2024A: Revenue of 11.82 billion yuan, net profit of 8.59 million yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 14.48 billion yuan, net profit of 13.05 million yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 17.10 billion yuan, net profit of 16.64 million yuan - 2027E: Revenue of 19.50 billion yuan, net profit of 18.94 million yuan [2][12] - Earnings Per Share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.11 yuan in 2024 to 0.24 yuan in 2027 [2][12] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 1.00% in 2024 to 2.21% in 2027 [2][12] Business Segments - The automotive logistics service is the primary business, contributing 82.7% of total revenue in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 19% [7][8] - Non-automotive logistics services, including cross-border e-commerce logistics, are also growing, with a projected revenue increase of 34.2% [7][8] - The company aims to enhance its logistics network and optimize operations to improve profitability [9][10] Market Outlook - The automotive market in China is expected to continue growing, with total sales projected to exceed 32.9 million vehicles in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [8] - The demand for automotive logistics is anticipated to recover as the automotive industry stabilizes [7][8] Conclusion - The report suggests that San Yang Ma is well-positioned to benefit from the growth in the automotive logistics sector, with a focus on improving operational efficiency and expanding service offerings [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company, but it suggests continuous attention due to its potential for steady growth in the AI and new business sectors [1][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 87.3 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.6%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.2 billion yuan, down 24.8% year-on-year [7]. - The company is focusing on AI and new business opportunities, with the launch of AI smart mattresses and electric bed frames, which have seen sales exceed 100 million yuan [7][8]. - The company’s mattress segment showed steady growth, with revenue reaching 5.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 94.3 billion yuan, 101.3 billion yuan, and 107.8 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 8.0%, 7.5%, and 6.5% [2][9]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: Projected net profits for the same years are 3.47 billion yuan, 3.69 billion yuan, and 3.95 billion yuan, with growth rates of 7.5%, 6.4%, and 7.1% [2][9]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is expected to increase from 0.85 yuan in 2024 to 1.04 yuan in 2027 [2][9]. Business Segment Performance - **Mattress Segment**: Revenue is projected to grow from 5.27 billion yuan in 2024 to 7.00 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% [8]. - **Soft Beds and Accessories**: Revenue is expected to decline slightly, from 2.44 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.41 billion yuan in 2027 [8]. - **Sofas**: Revenue is forecasted to grow from 719 million yuan in 2024 to 883 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a recovery in demand [8]. Market and Channel Analysis - **Sales Channels**: The company reported revenue from distribution stores, bulk business, and online sales of 32.1 billion yuan, 34 billion yuan, and 19.8 billion yuan, respectively, with online sales growing by 9.9% [7][8]. - **Geographical Performance**: Domestic sales decreased by 6.4% to 64.7 billion yuan, while international sales increased by 27.5% to 21.3 billion yuan [7][8]. Valuation Metrics - **Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio**: The PE ratio is projected to decrease from 18 in 2024 to 15 in 2027, indicating a potential increase in valuation attractiveness [2][9]. - **Price-to-Book (PB) Ratio**: The PB ratio is expected to decline from 1.58 in 2024 to 1.24 in 2027, suggesting a strengthening balance sheet [2][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of —— yuan over the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company has shown robust growth in new projects and has promising prospects in overseas markets, particularly benefiting from the rapid development of new energy vehicles [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported revenue of 5,967.91 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.03%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 772.27 million yuan, up 26.81% year-on-year [7]. - In Q4 2024, the revenue was 1,695 million yuan, reflecting an 18.4% year-on-year increase and a 10.8% quarter-on-quarter increase, while the net profit was 166 million yuan, a 7.8% year-on-year increase but a 29.5% quarter-on-quarter decrease [7]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1,374 million yuan, down 3% year-on-year and 18.9% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 206 million yuan, down 6% year-on-year but up 24.2% quarter-on-quarter [7]. Business Segment Performance - The company’s four main business segments all experienced growth in 2024: - Energy Management Systems revenue reached 830 million yuan, up 92.9% year-on-year, driven by the rapid growth of new energy vehicles. - Lighting Control Systems revenue was 2,890 million yuan, up 22.2% year-on-year, with sales of 39.92 million units, an 8.8% increase year-on-year. - Motor Control Systems revenue was 960 million yuan, up 21.4% year-on-year, with sales of 9.80 million units, a 12.8% increase year-on-year. - Onboard Electrical and Electronics revenue was 880 million yuan, up 15.8% year-on-year, with sales of 33.57 million units, a 9.8% increase year-on-year [7]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve EPS of 2.38 yuan in 2025, 3.01 yuan in 2026, and 3.67 yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 24.3% for net profit attributable to the parent company over the three years [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company, Shenghang Co., Ltd. (盛航股份), is focusing on synergistic development in domestic and international hazardous chemical transportation following the acquisition by Wanda Holdings [1][7] - The company has seen a decline in net profit for 2024, with a reported net profit of 137.15 million yuan, down 24.67% year-on-year, while revenue increased by 18.88% to 1.5 billion yuan [7] - The company is expanding its fleet capacity, controlling 52 vessels with a total capacity of 405,000 deadweight tons as of December 2024 [7] - Shenghang has established stable partnerships with major petrochemical companies, enhancing its competitive position in both domestic and international markets [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1,499.61 million yuan, 1,744.35 million yuan, 1,902.56 million yuan, and 2,025.05 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 18.88%, 16.32%, 9.07%, and 6.44% [2][9] - The net profit forecast for the same years is 137.15 million yuan, 183.13 million yuan, 208.00 million yuan, and 233.79 million yuan, with growth rates of -24.67%, 33.53%, 13.58%, and 12.40% [2][9] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.73 yuan, 0.97 yuan, 1.11 yuan, and 1.24 yuan for the years 2024 to 2027 [2][9] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 7.38% in 2024 to 9.90% in 2027 [2][9] Operational Insights - The company has successfully increased its domestic liquid chemical transportation volume by 9.42% year-on-year, reaching 5.44 million tons in 2024 [7] - In the international hazardous chemical transportation sector, the company achieved a 104.06% increase in foreign trade liquid hazardous goods transportation volume, totaling 2.47 million tons in 2024 [7] - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of 28.5% for chemical transportation and 10% for oil transportation in the coming years [8]