[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 11 月 05 日 证券研究报告•2024 年三季报点评 买入 （维持） 当前价：13.41 元 太阳纸业（002078）轻工制造 目标价：16.20 元（6 个月） 毛利率周期波动，产能持续稳步扩充 [Table_Summary 业绩摘要：2024] 前三季度公司实现营收 309.8 亿元，同比+6.1%；实现归母净 利润 24.6 亿元，同比+15.1%；实现扣非净利润 26 亿元，同比+24.3%。Q3 公 司实现营收 104.5 亿元，同比+6％；实现归母净利润 7 亿元，同比-20.8%；实 现扣非后归母净利润 7.7亿元，同比-10.7%。推测营收增长主要得益于公司产能 扩张后销量的持续增长，南宁基地年产 30 万吨生活用纸（一期）项目在今年三 季度陆续进入试产阶段。 Q3毛利率周期波动，受浆价纸价影响。24年前三季度公司整体毛利率为 16.4%， 同比+0.9pp，单 Q3 毛利率为 14%，同比-2.8pp。Q3 毛利率下滑推测主要系高 价木浆入库，原材料库存成本上涨，叠加行业需求偏弱、市场竞争加剧导致文化 纸价格下行。24年 Q3针叶浆吨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Weichai Power (000338) with a current price of 13.49 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company's profitability continues to strengthen, with a gross margin of 21.9% for the first three quarters of 2024, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Despite a decline in industry sales, Weichai Power's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 161.95 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.0% [2]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 110.2 billion CNY in 2024, corresponding to a PE ratio of 11 times [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Weichai Power reported revenue of 49.46 billion CNY, down 8.8% year-on-year and 11.8% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 2.50 billion CNY, down 4.0% year-on-year and 24.4% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 22.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year and 0.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. Market Position - The heavy truck industry saw a sales decline of 5% year-on-year, with Weichai Power selling 221,000 heavy truck engines, including 89,000 natural gas engines, which is an 8.8% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company’s market share in heavy trucks is supported by strong performance from subsidiaries like Shaanxi Automobile and Kion [3]. Strategic Initiatives - Weichai Power is accelerating its strategic layout in the new energy sector, focusing on high-power fuel cells and hydrogen fuel electric heavy trucks, which are leading the industry in sales [4]. - Collaborations with companies like Changhang Group and Yutong Bus are expected to enhance the company's product and market advantages [4]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 90.14 billion CNY in 2024, 110.15 billion CNY in 2025, and 129.73 billion CNY in 2026, with corresponding PE ratios decreasing from 11 to 8 over the same period [5].

[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 11 月 04 日 证券研究报告•2024 年三季报点评 持有 （维持） 当前价：9.90 元 玉马遮阳（300993）轻工制造 目标价：——元（6 个月） 增长保持韧性，期待新产能释放 [Table_Summary 业绩摘要：公司发布 ] 2024 年三季报。24 前三季度公司实现营收 5.5 亿元，同 比+15.4%；实现归母净利润 1.3 亿元，同比+7%；实现扣非净利润 1.2 亿元， 同比+7.5%。单 Q3公司实现营收 1.9亿元，同比+9.6％；实现归母净利润 4178.4 万元，同比-10.7%；实现扣非后归母净利润 4120.9 万元，同比-9.7%。 毛利率基本稳定，费用率上升。前三季度公司整体毛利率为 40.6%，同比-0.3pp， 单 Q3毛利率为 41.2%，同比-1.8pp，环比+0.1pp。费用率方面，前三季度公司 总费用率为 12.6%，同比+2.4pp，其中销售费用率/管理费用率/财务费用率/研 发费用率分别为 6%/5.3%/-1.7%/3.1%，同比+1.6pp/-0.1pp/+0.4pp/+0.4pp。销 售费用率增 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.14 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 1.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 20 million yuan, down 95.0% [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 720 million yuan, a decline of 9.1%, with a net loss of 30 million yuan, representing a decrease of 133.3% [1]. - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 39.5%, down 6.1 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 0.7%, down 13.9 percentage points [1]. - The company is accelerating investment and merger integration, which is expected to put short-term pressure on profitability [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.14 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.4%, and a net profit of 20 million yuan, down 95.0% [1]. - The Q3 2024 revenue was 720 million yuan, down 9.1%, with a net loss of 30 million yuan [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 39.5%, a decline of 6.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 0.7%, down 13.9 percentage points [1]. Expense Ratios - The sales expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2024 was 17.8%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year; the management expense ratio was 14.7%, up 2.5 percentage points; the R&D expense ratio was 0.2%, down 0.1 percentage points; and the financial expense ratio was 2.9%, up 0.8 percentage points [2]. - The total expense ratio for the first three quarters was 35.6%, an increase of 5 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Growth Outlook - The company is focusing on external expansion, which is expected to drive long-term performance growth despite short-term amortization costs [2]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 2.8 billion yuan, 3.2 billion yuan, and 3.5 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 3.7%, 12.0%, and 12.0% [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 60 million yuan in 2024, 117 million yuan in 2025, and 157 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of -77.45%, 93.91%, and 33.96% respectively [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" based on the expectation of continued growth in the smart bathroom industry and the company's brand development efforts [18]. Core Views - The company has increased its investment in its own brand, which has temporarily pressured profitability. Despite a revenue increase of 10.6% year-on-year to 1.71 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 28.2% to 126.34 million yuan [1][2]. - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 28.5%, with a decline in Q3 gross margin to 27.3% due to a decrease in product prices and an increase in the proportion of light smart toilet products [2]. - The company is focusing on product innovation in the light smart toilet segment, which is seen as a trend in industry demand, aiming to enhance gross margins and competitiveness through technological advancements [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 570 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 35.37 million yuan, down 43.4% year-on-year. The net profit margin for Q3 was 6.2%, a decrease of 4.7 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. - The total expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2024 was 21.3%, an increase of 5.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased brand building and marketing expenses [2]. Market Trends and Strategy - The demand for bathroom products is currently weak, with online sales of smart toilets declining by 21.8% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2024. The company believes that light smart toilets will help improve industry penetration [2][3]. - The company is actively participating in national subsidy programs and expanding its presence in overseas markets while focusing on cost control and flexible market expense adjustments to enhance profitability [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.42 yuan, 0.50 yuan, and 0.58 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18x, 15x, and 13x [3][4].

2024 年 11月 05 日 证券研究报告,2024年三季报,点评 潍柴动力(000338)汽车 买入 (维持) 当前价：13.49 元 目标价：——元（6个月） 盈利能力持续强化，Q3毛利率同环比上升 投资买点 ● 事件:公司发布 2024年三季报,实现营收 1619.5 亿元,同比+1.0%，实现归 母净利润 84.0 亿元，同比+29.2%。单季度看，Q3 实现营收 494.6 亿元，同比 -8.8%，环比-11.8%，实现归母净利润 25.0亿元，同比-4.0%，环比-24.4%。 ● 行业销量有所下滑,公司盈利能力持续强化。第一商用车网数据显示，24年 1-10 月重卡行业销量 74.6 万辆（批发口径,包含出口和新能源）,同比-5%。受益 于海外市场支撑、行业结构升级以及新能源重卡需求增长,公司24年前三季度 实现营收 1619.5亿元,同比+1.0%;从销量端来看,公司销售重卡发动机 22.1 万台，其中，销售天然气重卡发动机 8.9万台，同比增长 8.8%，销售 500 马力 以上 6x4率引车发动机 4.2万台，同比增长 29%，大缸径销量近 6000台。从盈 利能力来看，24Q1-Q3 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company Core Views - The company, SanKeShu (603737), is a leading domestic paint manufacturer facing temporary performance pressure, with a 2.8% year-on-year decline in total revenue to 9.15 billion yuan and a 26.0% drop in net profit attributable to shareholders to 410 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024 [1][2] - Despite the challenges, the company has improved its market share in key product segments, with significant revenue growth in home decoration wall paint (+14.1%) and waterproof membranes (+13.0%) [2][4] - The company is expected to benefit from favorable policies in the real estate sector, which may lead to a recovery in downstream demand and a potential rebound in sales prices [4][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 9.15 billion yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 410 million yuan, down 26.0% [1] - The third quarter alone saw revenue of 3.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9% year-on-year, with net profit at 200 million yuan, down 17.9% [1] Product Performance - Revenue growth varied by product: home decoration wall paint at 2.23 billion yuan (+14.1%), engineering wall paint at 2.98 billion yuan (-12.5%), base materials and auxiliary materials at 1.88 billion yuan (+4.2%), and waterproof membranes at 1.00 billion yuan (+13.0%) [2] - Sales prices for key products faced pressure, with engineering wall paint down 10.0% and base materials down 21.1% [2] Profitability - The gross margin decreased by 2.7 percentage points to 28.7% due to declining sales prices [3] - The net profit margin fell by 1.5 percentage points to 4.4%, indicating pressure on profitability [3] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand and marketing channels, aiming for a high-end retail transformation and expanding into potential markets such as rural revitalization and e-commerce [4][11] - The company has a strong competitive advantage in the paint industry, with a comprehensive product matrix and a focus on core business areas [4][8] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.2% in revenue and 76.5% in net profit from 2024 to 2026, driven by a recovery in downstream demand and stabilization of sales prices [4][21] - The report highlights the potential for growth in the context of urban renewal and old community renovations, supported by government policies [4][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's revenue and profitability have shown significant growth in Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 7.56 billion yuan, up 20.1% YoY and 18% QoQ, and net profit reaching 0.78 billion yuan, up 117% YoY and 47.1% QoQ [1] - The gross margin in Q3 2024 was 28.8%, up 4 percentage points YoY and 3.9 percentage points QoQ, while the net margin was 10.1%, up 4.5 percentage points YoY and 2 percentage points QoQ [1] - The company's strong performance is attributed to the growth in major customer sales, improved product competitiveness, and optimized customer and product structure [1] Business Performance - The company's automotive speaker business achieved revenue of 9.42 billion yuan in H1 2024, up 20.3% YoY, driven by increasing demand for higher-quality audio systems in vehicles [2] - The automotive amplifier business saw revenue of 2.07 billion yuan, up 58.2% YoY, while the AVAS (Acoustic Vehicle Alerting System) business generated 0.59 billion yuan, up 62.4% YoY [2] - The combined revenue from amplifiers and AVAS accounted for 21.5% of total revenue, up 4.2 percentage points YoY, indicating a diversification in product offerings [2] Customer and Capacity Expansion - The company has secured new projects from several well-known automotive manufacturers, with mass production expected within the next 1-2 years [2] - The company is expanding its production capacity, with ongoing automation upgrades at its Czech and Mexico factories, and the new Hefei factory is nearing completion, with trial production expected within the year [2] Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve EPS of 1.62/1.91/2.23 yuan for 2024-2026, with a CAGR of 32% for net profit attributable to shareholders [3] - Revenue is projected to grow to 29.09/34.38/39.54 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with a CAGR of 18.19% [4] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 26.8% from 2024 to 2026, while the net margin is forecasted to increase to 9.01% by 2026 [8] Key Assumptions - The company's speaker shipments are expected to grow to 9000/9500/10000 million units in 2024-2026, with a 10% annual increase in unit price and a gross margin of 28% [7] - Automotive amplifier shipments are projected to reach 62/78/91 million units in 2024-2026, with a gross margin of 24% [7] - AVAS shipments are expected to grow to 284/381/457 million units in 2024-2026, with a gross margin of 21% [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Co., Ltd. (000951) [1][4]. Core Views - The company reported significant profit growth in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 97.9% despite a revenue decline of 13.2% compared to the same quarter last year [2][3]. - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 33.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 930 million yuan, up 42.5% year-on-year [1][2]. - The strategic layout in the natural gas sector has shown positive results, with a 121.1% increase in natural gas heavy truck sales year-on-year [2]. - The company is optimistic about the long-term prospects of new energy heavy trucks, with a 327.0% increase in sales in the first nine months of 2024 [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 8.3%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 4.4%, up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The operating income for 2024 is projected to grow from 42.07 billion yuan in 2023 to 63.18 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 20.9% for net profit [5][4]. Market Position - The company maintained a market share of 27.5% in the commercial vehicle sector, with a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The implementation of new policies in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai to replace older trucks with new energy vehicles is expected to positively impact the heavy truck market [3]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 1.11 yuan for 2024, increasing to 1.63 yuan by 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4][5]. - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing policy support and market demand for new energy vehicles, which will drive future sales growth [3][2].

[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 11 月 03 日 证券研究报告•2024 年三季报点评 持有 （维持） 当前价：15.54 元 乐歌股份（300729）轻工制造 目标价：——元（6 个月） 基础数据 [Table_BaseData] 总股本(亿股) 3.41 流通 A 股(亿股) 2.96 52 周内股价区间(元) 13.08-20.81 总市值(亿元) 53.04 总资产(亿元) 89.49 每股净资产(元) 9.96 海外仓业务高速增长，静待利润改善 [Table_Summary 业绩摘要：公司发布 ] 2024年三季报，24年前三季度公司实现营收 39.8亿元， 同比+48%；实现归母净利润 2.7亿元，同比-48.6%；实现扣非净利润 1.4亿元， 同比-8.6%。单季度来看，Q3 公司实现营收 15.5 亿元，同比+53.7％；实现归 母净利润 1.1 亿元，同比+43%；实现扣非后归母净利润 3261.7 万元，同比 -53.7%。归母净利润增速与扣非后增速相差大主要受去年 Q1以及今年 Q3非经 常性损益中海外仓出售收益影响。 新设海外仓影响毛利率水平，销售费用率下降。2 ...