Weekly Performance Observation for Hedge Fund （GTJA Futures 06/14/2024） ...

第四季度剩余履约义务总额增长44%至980亿美元 第四季度总营收 143 亿美元，按美元计算增长 3%，按固定汇率 计算增长 4% 第四季度云基础设施 （IaaS） 营收 20 亿美元，按美元和固定汇率 计算增长 42% 第四季度融合云ERP（SaaS）营收为8亿美元， 按美元和固定汇率计算增长14% 2024 财年总收入 530 亿美元， 按美元和固定汇率计算增长 6% CEO Safra Catz表示："在第三季度和第四季度，甲骨文签署了我们历史上最大的销售合同，这是由于 对在甲骨文云中训练AI大型语言模型的巨大需求。在整个 2025 财年，我预计持续强劲的 AI 需求将进 一步推动甲骨文的销售额和 RPO，并导致本财年的收入实现两位数增长。预计随着 OCI 产能开始赶上 需求，连续每个季度的增长速度都应快于上一季度。仅在第四季度，甲骨文就签署了 30 多份 AI 销售 合同，总额超过 125 亿美元，其中包括与 Open AI 签订的在甲骨文云中训练 ChatGPT 的合同。" 预计2025FY第一季度的总收入预计将按固定货币增长6%至8%，按美元增长5%至7%。云总收入预计 将按固定货币增长21%至2 ...

观察一下Apple明天凌晨的发布会到底在这件事情上会怎么去描述那这个是第二点那AIPC的话因为我们那个周杨老师会讲我就不再赘述那我重点下面的时间说一下然后探讨度比较高的几只果链的几只股票果链的话现在是一二季度应该是Apple最差的一个时间已经过去 因为从EQ来看大概同比掉了销量来看11个点OQ市场预期可能是6到7个点左右的下滑但是大概在三四周之前大家也有看到Apple现在做了史上最大规模的iPhone的一个促销所以我想可能实际的销量会下滑的幅度会比大家预期来的要好一点 那这是第二点那当然这个也对应了刚才跟各位提到的就是顾客的压力很大那这个也是对应他做的这个动作所以我相信AI一定也会做类似的动作那第三点的话是从全年组装来看Apple大概是负到负5个点的一个下滑言外之意的话下半年是很有机会回正的那当然下半年回正更多的是想同比那这个是关于Apple那第三个层次那关于国联的那个股票呢 投资人前期有反馈说在WWDC发布会之前可能有一些个别的股票已经涨了不少了有一些可能在里面有一些做一些准备的或者是在里面蹲守的一些朋友可能在考虑当然现在基于海外市场整体的温度还不错可能也面临这些犹豫的态度我个人是对发布会Apple一些的一 ...

明天凌晨的发布会到底在这件事情上会怎么去描述那这个是第二点那AIPC的话因为我们那个周杨老师会讲我就不再赘述那我重点下面的时间说一下然后探讨度比较高的几只果链的几只股票果链的话现在是一二季度应该是Apple最差的一个时间已经过去因为从EQ来看大概同比掉了销量来看11个点 OQ市场预期可能是6到7个点左右的下滑但是大概在三四周之前大家也有看到Apple现在做了史上最大规模的iPhone的一个促销所以我想可能实际的销量会下滑的幅度会比大家预期来的要好一点这是第二点当然这个也对应了刚才跟各位提到的就是库克的压力很大这个也是对应他做的动作所以我相信AI一定也会做类似的动作 第三点的话是从全年组装来看Apple大概是负到负5个点的一个下滑言外之意的话下半年是很有机会回正的当然下半年回正更多的是想同比这个是关于Apple的第三个层次关于国联的股票投资人前期有反馈说在WWDC发布会之前 可能有一些个别的股票已经涨了不少了有一些可能在里面有一些做一些准备的或者是在里面蹲守的一些朋友可能在考虑当然现在基于海外市场整体的温度还不错可能也面临着一些犹豫的态度我个人是对发布会Apple一些的一些可能潜在的一些东西说的会比较多还是抱相 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号：水木纪要 Goldman Equity Sachs Research Hon Hai (2317.TW): Computex 2024 Ingrasys Booth visit: rack-level Al servers showcased; total solution to support profitability and orders Allen Chang. +852-2978-2930 allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. 4th. Ingrasys, the subsidiary of Hon Hai, showcased its latest rack-level Al servers solution, and also advanced liquid cooling solution (Link). We see Hon Hai is well-positioned in rack-level Al server, given company's capabilities of (1 ...

【兴证海外消费】Dollar General（DG.N）2024Q1业绩会议 会议时间：2024年5月30日 会议纪要来源：https://seekingalpha.com/article/4696532-dollar-general-corporation-dg-q1-2024-earn ings-call-transcript 联系人：宋婧茹/陈雅雯 注：以下材料仅为公开资料整理，不涉及分析师的研究观点和投资建议，记录和翻译可能产生误差， 仅供参考，如有异议，请联系删除。 1. 业绩概览 第一季度净销售额增长6.1%，达到99亿美元，去年同期为93亿美元。 同店销售额增长2.4%，超出了第一季度指导的上限。 新开了197家店铺。 2. 顾客和销售 消费者流量增长超过4%。 消费品类销售强劲，家居、季节性和服装类销售有所下降。 3月份增长最强，部分原因是复活节从4月提前至3月。 3. 财务状况 毛利率下降145个基点至30.2%，主要由于库存减值和降价销售增加、消费品销售比例增加以及库存增值减 少。 运营利润下降26.3%至5.46亿美元，运营利润率为5.5%，下降了242个基点。 净利息费用从去年同期的8 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Accessible version European Equity Strategy Lowering European versus global equities to underweight Better Euro area growth momentum and signs of a performance turnaround have led to optimism on 2 4 May 2024 Europe: after 15% underperformance versus global equities in little under a year, European equities have Equity Strategy begun to show signs of a performance turnaround in recent months. Europe’s relative performance is strongly Europe determined by two macro factors: (a) Eu ...

Accessible version Equity Strategy - India BofA FAQs: Factors driving the rise of India 1. Could India benefit from shifting global supply chains? 3 1 May 2024 India is well positioned to scale manufacturing in select sectors like electronics, auto, Equity Strategy pharma and textiles in the next decade. The government support, increasing ease of I ndia doing business and improving labor laws would make India an ideal and reliable partner Equity Strategy/Fundamental Equity Research for companies who are loo ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the 60/40 portfolio or specific asset classes, but it suggests a more balanced approach given the current elevated valuations and uncertain structural cycle [8][11] Core Views - 60/40 portfolios have mostly recovered from the 2022 drawdown, but valuations are again elevated, especially for US equities [1][8] - Valuations alone may send too bearish a signal, as macro conditions can support elevated valuations over long horizons [2][9] - The structural cycle (growth, inflation, and policy trends) will be a key driver of 60/40 returns and equity risk premia in the coming years [2][9] - Strategic tilting based on structural regimes can materially improve risk-adjusted returns compared to a static 60/40 portfolio [3][10] - Bonds may offer protection in stagnation scenarios but are pricing low inflation risk, while equities could provide some inflation protection but are also elevated [3][11] Portfolio Strategy - The optimal asset mix has shifted over time, with a 40/60 equity/bond allocation being optimal in the last 25 years due to solid growth and low inflation [2][10] - Since the COVID-19 crisis, bonds have offered little benefit, and the optimal portfolio has been a mix of equities and cash based on risk tolerance [2][10] - In the coming years, a more balanced approach is recommended due to increased uncertainty around growth and inflation [11] Valuations and Macro Conditions - US 10-year bond yields are closer to their long-run average, but equity valuations, especially in the US, remain elevated [1][8] - Equity valuations outside the US and the Tech sector are less elevated, suggesting regional and sectoral differences in valuation levels [9] - The structural cycle, including trends in growth, inflation, and policy, will condition 60/40 portfolio performance and valuations [9][19] Strategic Tilting and Asset Allocation - Strategic tilting based on structural regimes has historically improved risk-adjusted returns compared to a static 60/40 portfolio [3][10] - Real assets (TIPS, commodities, real asset stocks) and growth stocks can enhance diversification, with real assets currently looking cheap and growth stocks expensive [3][11] - The optimal asset mix has historically varied significantly, with periods favoring higher equity allocations (e.g., 1970s, 1990s) and others favoring bonds (e.g., post-GFC) [80][81] Long-Term Return Forecasting - A building block approach combining valuations and macro conditions provides better long-term return forecasts for 60/40 portfolios than valuations alone [50][52] - The model incorporates starting valuations, trend growth, inflation, and profitability to forecast long-term returns for equities and bonds [50][52] - Strategic tilting based on macro conditions can enhance Sharpe ratios, especially during periods of extreme structural regime shifts [86][92] Real Assets and Growth Stocks - Real assets have historically outperformed during periods of high inflation, providing diversification benefits for 60/40 portfolios [100][103] - Growth stocks, particularly in the Tech sector, have outperformed during periods of high productivity growth, such as the 1990s and the current AI-driven cycle [101][103] - Strategic tilts towards real assets and growth stocks can improve risk-adjusted returns, especially in extreme structural scenarios like stagflation or high productivity growth [106][113]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 30 May 2024 | 3:07AM CEST Around the world in 80 charts What the global transport markets say: Global trade rebound Stronger for longer container market May-Sep vs. Jan-Apr. With ongoing disruptions in the Red Patrick Creuset +33(1)4212-1380 | Container spot rates on the main Asia to Europe and US Sea and the Suez effectively shut Exhibit 24, it is unlikely patrick.creuset@gs.com Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Paris trades have risen back to their January highs in recent that co ...