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医药行业update
医药魔方· 2024-10-17 16:35
接下来有请我们的袁伟老师来进一步的去把整个这边的医药板块以及重点推荐的几个方向做一个详细的阐述袁老师对 好嘞谢谢方老师各位投资者好我是国际证券的医药首席分析师袁伟那么我也来汇报一下我们对医药板块的一个观点应该讲就是我们从行业角度自下而上 和张持总这个自上而下的观点其实有很多都是不谋而合的我在这里也给大家做一个系统性的梳理首先就是我们对于当前医药板块的一个位置的一个把握的观点我觉得总的来讲句话概括就是现在这个位置呢第一医药的估值非常低这个历史性的估值低点可以说除了创新药的估值还比较高以外其他板块基本上是历史性的估值的低点 这是第一个而且创新要里的很多仿创类的企业其实估值也不高整体是一个估值低点第二这是机构配置的一个低点应该我们看到其实从二季度半年报的这个基金池仓来讲医药的配置是创下了一个新低应该说比这个标配大家知道标配现在医药的标配市值也就是七个点左右这个当年的标配可能在高点的时候都是 9到10个点这其实算量很多但即使在这个情况下现在还达不到标配基本上比标配要轻配了1%左右就是配置也是一个前所未有的这么一个低点这个也是一个然后这是第一个第二个我们要说的就是这个医药现在其实景气度也已经在恢复了就是说虽然我们前面说 ...
医药:景气度温和回升,把握创新药和消费两大核心领域,兼顾器械板块改善
医药魔方· 2024-10-17 16:24
Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion focuses on the pharmaceutical industry, specifically the future layout in three major areas of the sector [1] Core Insights and Arguments - The strategy analyst emphasizes the importance of the pharmaceutical sector in the current market landscape and outlines key areas for future investment [1] Additional Important Content - The call features insights from a chief pharmaceutical analyst, indicating a collaborative approach to discussing strategic opportunities within the industry [1]
医药-景气度温和回升-把握创新药和消费两大核心领域-兼顾器械板块改善
医药魔方· 2024-10-17 07:48
医药:景气度温和回升,把握创新药和消费两大核心领域,兼顾器械板块改善 20241016 摘要 • 医药板块投资策略主要分为两部分:创新药作为底仓配置的重要组成部分, 并在反弹期重点关注生物制药和创新药。医药板块具有"可攻可守"的特 点,在反弹过程中,更重视估值扩张逻辑,而分子端不应出现明显波动。 • 创新药具有持续性,主要原因在于融资现金流得到明显改善,尤其是在美 债收益率下行时,融资成本下降,带动生产、消费、投资及研发意愿上升, 使得整体估值得到修复。 • 选择具体投资标的时,应考虑上市制度差异及盈利约束。港股市场中很多 医药公司能够优先上市,但盈利约束较少,因此 ROE 水平对其影响相对较 小。而在 A 股市场上,由于诊断方式更为严苛,因此 ROE 水平成为筛选的 重要因子。此外,对于外需占比较高的公司,其盈利结构、毛利率等表现 通常更好。 • 医疗器械设备领域受益于财政政策中提到的设备更新换代投资,政府计划 投入 1,500 亿元用于设备更新换代,将直接推动医疗器械设备行业的发展。 • 目前医药板块处于历史性的估值低点,机构配置也创下新低,仅达到标配 市值 7%左右,表明当前不仅是估值低点,也是机构配置 ...
医药医疗后续怎么看
医药魔方· 2024-10-17 03:28
Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the pharmaceutical and healthcare sector, discussing the latest trends and investment opportunities within this industry [1] Core Insights and Arguments - The host emphasized the importance of staying updated on the latest developments in the pharmaceutical and healthcare sectors to identify potential investment opportunities [1] Other Important Content - The call was structured as an interactive session, inviting audience participation to discuss various topics related to the industry [1]
超跌的医药板块,能否强势回归
医药魔方· 2024-10-11 13:08
you Share investment experience to guide the market. Hello, everyone. Welcome to join me in the face-to-face. I'm Xinyi. Today, in the live broadcast, we're going to focus on a sector that everyone is also very concerned about in this round of rebound, medicine. We all know that from the end of September, the market's expectations for the combination of macro policies have been very full, all the way to the end of the week, including the medical sector. A lot of popular sectors have seen a lot of growth. Wh ...
医药板块是反弹还是反转?
医药魔方· 2024-10-11 13:08
you Hello everyone, welcome to our live stream. We have arranged several live streams for you this week to keep up with the pace of the A-share market. Yesterday, we have invited a few of the managers to help us analyze some of the red-chip-style blocks, including some indexes. Today, we are very honored to invite Pan Tianqi, the fund's fund manager, to come to our live stream to discuss the investment in the two fields of medicine and consumption. Welcome, Mr. Pan Tianqi. Please say hello to our friends in ...
医药板块配置价值?如何布局细分领域
医药魔方· 2024-10-11 03:14
各位直播间的观众朋友们大家好欢迎来到会天副基金直播间我是今天的主持人一帆新浪朋友们好久不见了我们今天回到直播间要聊的话题就是医药 在这两周的一个快速反弹的行情当中大家肯定也注意到医药是有非常突出的表现的但是大家可能没有注意到的是其实医药当中的一些细分的方向在前期就已经有了不错的回升了我们也知道其实持仓医药的投资者有很多尤其是上一轮牛市当中入场的投资者有很多人都选择了医药可能一直到现在还是保留着一定的持仓大家都非常的关心就是之后的话 随着这样的一个普涨的行情逐渐转向了分化大家都很关心后续医药应该是怎么投所以我们今天就请到了会天赋基金指数一量化投资部医药行业的研究员张圆圆老师来为大家做一个解读欢迎圆圆大家好我是指数一量化投资部的研究员张圆圆欢迎圆圆也欢迎各位观众朋友们来到我们直播间那我们就话不多说快速进入到我们今天直播内容的一个干货的分享当中 首先可以请严严来为我们做一个简单的自弹吗就是这一轮反应其实来得非常的迅猛啊那么在这个普照的行情之下医药的表现怎么样呢嗯好的谢谢一芬 是这样的就是直播间大家肯定都关注到我们在那个十一国庆节前的时候A股有一波非常迅猛的这样子的一个反弹在这个反弹下大概是9月24号开始持续了大概一 ...
医药板块是反弹还是反转
医药魔方· 2024-10-10 06:56
Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical and consumer sectors have shown strong performance since the mid-year meeting on September 24, with the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index and CITIC Food and Beverage Index both experiencing cumulative increases of over 40% [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - Current market conditions should not be hastily classified as a rebound or reversal; a comprehensive assessment of fundamentals, data, and market conditions is necessary for real-time judgment [1][3]. - Many sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical industry have shown improvement in operational margins in Q3, with expectations that this trend will be validated by the upcoming Q3 reports at the end of October [1][4]. - As of September 23, the overall valuation of the pharmaceutical industry is at historical lows, suggesting that a combination of fundamental improvements and valuation recovery is reasonable [1][4]. - Historical trends indicate that the pharmaceutical sector often performs well during significant market rallies due to its dual attributes of technology and performance evaluation [1][7]. Important but Overlooked Content - The market is expected to revert to mean or fundamental analysis over the long term, necessitating attention to corporate performance, industry trends, and macroeconomic conditions [1][5]. - The pharmaceutical manufacturing sector has faced negative year-on-year growth in both revenue and profit in 2022 and 2023, primarily due to high base fluctuations from 2020 and 2021 [1][6]. - Despite recent underperformance compared to other sectors, the pharmaceutical sector is recommended for increased focus and potential accumulation due to its historical resilience in larger market movements [1][7]. - The correlation between Hong Kong and A-share markets exists, particularly for companies listed in both markets, which can lead to synchronized market reactions [1][9]. - Consumer sentiment during the National Day holiday showed improvement compared to earlier pessimistic expectations, indicating a potential recovery in consumer spending [1][10]. Investment Products - The "Guolian Pharmaceutical Consumption Mixed Product" focuses on various sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical industry, with dynamic adjustments based on industry conditions and performance [1][11]. - The "Guolian Medical Health Mixed" product has a higher concentration in the pharmaceutical sector compared to the "Guolian Pharmaceutical Consumption Mixed," which allows for flexible allocation between pharmaceutical and consumer sectors [1][12]. - Investors optimistic about the pharmaceutical and consumer sectors are encouraged to consider the "Guolian Pharmaceutical Consumption Mixed" product, while those focused solely on healthcare may prefer the "Guolian Medical Health Mixed" product [1][14].
医药行业近期更新及医药投资策略
医药魔方· 2024-10-09 05:59
医药行业近期更新及医药投资策略 20241007 摘要 • 医药板块近期表现波动较大,弹性最大的股票往往与当前热点相关,而非 基本面最好的公司。建议投资者关注产业趋势和基本面,选择具备长期竞 争力的公司进行布局。 • 不同细分行业在不同市场环境下表现各异。降息周期中,创新药板块对政 策变化更为敏感,而经济基本面预期向好时,消费医疗表现会更好。近期 消费医疗、B 超以及部分创新药公司涨幅居前。 • 建议关注港股中的核心标杆企业以及 A 股中的优质创新药龙头。在消费医 疗领域,可寻找竞争格局良好且业绩稳步上升的公司。在 B 超上游领域, 应选择业绩和基本面已经有所改善的企业。 • 推荐关注百济神州、恒瑞医药、科伦博泰、汉森制药、康方生物等创新药 龙头企业,以及爱博医疗、爱尔眼科等消费医疗公司。 • 未来随着全链条政策逐步推行、审评及经验加速,以及创新品种放量速度 和峰值提升,医药板块将持续向好。许多优秀公司的估值仍处于合理位置, 未来发展前景可期。 • 分销板块基本面已触底,并出现改善信号,尤其是以海外业务为主的公司。 下半年环比呈现改善趋势,但同比仍有压力。短期来看,生物安全法案可 能在年内落地,对分销板块来说 ...
牛市医药大反攻15分钟快速大拆解(一)- 政策组合拳落地,全面看好医药行业底部崛起_1
医药魔方· 2024-10-07 16:08
本次会议前面向方证证券的专业投资机构客户或收邀客户第三方专家发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或观点不构成投资建议根据监管规定会议不得交流敏感内幕信息未经方证证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人严禁录音注册纪要转发转载传播复制编辑修改等这将违反上述情形的我们将保留一切法律权利感谢您的理解和支持谢谢 好的 各位投资朋友大家好 我是方圣正区的医药行业分析师周少泽那么在下期期间也给大家做一个简短的15分钟之内的一个快速的观点的汇报那么我们总共组织了大概14场的这样的快速拆解 那一方面就是今天我们第一场主要是讲一下整体策略的我们主要的观点还有大概的一个选股的逻辑那接下来我们会每隔一个小时做一个15分钟的快速的各股的基本面的更新策划计的更新然后盈利侧的更新以及市值空间更新的简短汇报 那我们现在马上就开始第一就是当下我们的一个策略观点就是我们首先看到从9月25号的这个时间我们看到的整个货币政策的一篮子的组合拳 带来的就是整个这个中国资本市场的流动性的底部已经出现那么其次就是在9月26号的中央政治局的这个经济工作会上那么正式提出了关于这个财政的政客的这个逆周期的调节以及这个就是未来扩大内需促消费力保这个整个宏观经济增长的这样的一个 ...