Latin America Equity Research 22 September 2024 J P M O R G A N Iron ore Trimming prices on lower Chinese steel output, but marginal mine curtailments have rebalanced markets | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Summary of Mortgage Finance Weekly - 20 September 2024 Industry Overview - **Industry**: Mortgage Finance - **Key Focus**: Trends in mortgage applications, existing home sales, and origination forecasts Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Refinance Applications**: There was a **24.2% increase** in refinance applications week-over-week, indicating a significant uptick in refinancing activity compared to earlier in the year, with a **75% increase** in the non-seasonally adjusted 4-week average compared to three months ago [1][1][1] 2. **Existing Home Sales**: Existing home sales fell **2.5%** month-over-month to **3.86 million** (SAAR) in August, marking the lowest level in 10 months. The median existing-home sales price increased by **3.1%** year-over-year [1][1][1] 3. **Mortgage Applications**: The MBA purchase index rose **5.4%** for the week but showed a **0.6%** decline year-over-year, the lowest year-over-year decline since May 2021 [1][1][1] 4. **MBS Spreads**: Nominal Agency MBS spreads tightened by **7 basis points** to **120 bps**, which is **12 bps tighter** than the long-term average, indicating relatively tight spreads compared to interest rate volatility [1][1][1] 5. **Origination Forecasts**: Fannie Mae revised its 2024 origination forecast down by **1.1%** to **$1.68 trillion**, while raising the 2025 forecast by **0.5%** to **$2.16 trillion**. The purchase forecast for 2024 and 2025 was lowered by **1.5%** and **0.8%**, respectively [1][1][1] Additional Important Insights 1. **Regional Performance**: Existing home sales were particularly weak in the South, which saw a **4.3%** decline, while the Midwest performed the best but still experienced flat growth [1][1][1] 2. **Housing Starts**: Single-family housing starts rose to **992K** in August from **857K** in July, indicating a rebound likely driven by recovery from Hurricane Beryl's impact [1][1][1] 3. **Market Sentiment**: The current market sentiment reflects a cautious outlook, with the origination forecast being lower than the MBA forecast for 2024 by **4.3%** [1][1][1] 4. **Dividend Announcements**: Among the mREITs covered, **20 out of 23** announced dividends, with **2 increasing** and **4 decreasing**, indicating mixed performance in dividend distributions [4][4][4] Conclusion The mortgage finance industry is experiencing a complex landscape characterized by rising refinance activity, declining existing home sales, and cautious origination forecasts. The tightening of MBS spreads and mixed regional performance further complicate the outlook, suggesting a need for careful monitoring of market conditions and potential investment opportunities.

ab 20 September 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Sustainable Transition APAC positioning for a rate cut cycle Sustainable Transition Investment Strategy Toolkit As a reminder, the Sustainable Transition Investor Toolkit encapsulates how we identify the most attractive sustainable investing opportunities. It is made up of four key toolkits: 1) a 450+ technology solutions Thematic Framework; 2) a systematic Thematic Assessment to determine the most attractive themes; 3) a proprietary Theme Stock Universe ...

Industry/Company Involved * **Industry**: China's economy, labor market, fiscal policy, monetary policy * **Company**: Not specified, general analysis of the Chinese economy Core Views and Arguments 1. **Deterioration in China Social Dynamics Indicator (SDI)**: The SDI has deteriorated but has not reached previous policy pivot thresholds. This suggests that policy changes may be on the horizon. * [2] 2. **Rapid Deterioration in Labor Market**: Unemployment rate has increased at an abnormally fast pace since May, indicating a weakening labor market. * [4] 3. **Weakening Labor Market Sentiment**: Sentiment has weakened significantly, further indicating a struggling labor market. * [5] 4. **Downward Pressure on Wage Growth**: Wage growth is facing further downward pressure as corporate profits decline, particularly affecting the bottom 20% of earners. * [7] 5. **Rising Social Risk**: Household living standards have deteriorated at the margin, and the number of labor incidents has increased, indicating rising social risk. * [9], [10] 6. **Pro-Cyclical Fiscal Policy**: Fiscal policy may remain pro-cyclical in the near term, with on-budget fiscal rollout catching up but overall augmented fiscal deficit remaining plateaued. * [11] 7. **Potential Policy Pivot Points**: The document outlines several potential policy pivot points, including the NPC Standing Committee meeting in late October 2024, the possibility of a supplementary budget, and the Politburo economic meeting in early December 2024. * [2] 8. **Potential Policy Initiatives**: The document suggests potential policy initiatives, such as expanding the consumer goods trade-in program, providing welfare with fiscal policy, and shoring up the housing market. * [2] 9. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 10. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 11. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 12. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 13. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 14. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 15. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 16. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 17. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 18. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 19. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 20. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 21. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 22. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 23. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 24. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 25. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 26. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 27. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 28. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 29. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 30. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 31. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 32. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 33. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 34. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 35. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 36. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 37. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 38. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 39. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 40. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 41. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 42. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 43. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 44. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 45. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 46. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 47. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 48. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 49. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 50. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 51. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 52. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 53. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 54. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 55. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 56. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 57. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 58. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 59. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 60. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 61. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 62. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 63. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 64. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 65. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 66. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 67. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 68. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 69. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 70. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 71. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 72. **Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare**: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 73. **

Deutsche Bank Research 7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa North America United States Industrials Multi - Industry & Electrical Equipment Industry DeBLASEing the Trail Date 22 September 2024 Industry Update The First (Fed) Cut Is the Deepest? | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------- ...

Europe Equity Research 23 September 2024 J P M O R G A N Source: Company reports. Source: J.P. Morgan. European Autos Global Truck / Construction Equipment Monthly (Sep'24): Mixed leading indicators | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Greater China IT Services and Software - **Current View**: Cautious outlook on the A-share software and IT sector, influenced by IT localization themes [2][3] Core Insights - **MIIT Policy**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has mandated the replacement of 2 million sets of industrial software licenses and 800,000 industrial operating systems by 2027. This is part of a broader initiative to enhance supply chain resiliency and security [3][5] - **Recent Market Activity**: The China Securities Xinchuang Index (CSI931247) increased by 4% from September 18-20, compared to a 1% rise in the CSI300. This surge is attributed to geopolitical events and speculation regarding local government funding for IT localization [4][5] - **Investment Recommendations**: - Avoid investments in the Xinchuang theme until financial contributions become clearer due to a poor track record [2][5] - Preference for Baosight (EW) over ZWsoft (UW) for industrial software, and Kingsoft Corp (OW) over Kingsoft Office (UW) for localization [5] Financial Performance and Risks - **Bottlenecks**: Key challenges for IT localization include budget constraints for local governments and performance issues with domestic industrial software. Previous MIIT targets, such as those for cybersecurity growth, have been missed [5] - **Market Sentiment**: The current market environment resembles that of September 2022, where the software sector rallied on localization policies without subsequent financial benefits [5] Company-Specific Insights - **Kingsoft Corp Ltd (3888.HK)**: - Valuation based on a sum of parts approach, with online games valued at 10x 2024e P/E and WPS using DCF with a 9.0% WACC [7] - Risks include slower game revenue growth and competition in cloud services [8][9] - **Shanghai Baosight Software Co Ltd (600845.SS)**: - Valuation derived from a 10-year DCF model with a WACC of 10.5% [10] - Upside risks include faster customer utilization and potential M&A activity [11] - **ZWSOFT Guangzhou Co Ltd (688083.SS)**: - Valuation based on a 10-year DCF with a WACC of 10.8% [13] - Upside risks include stronger IP protection and technology evolution [14] - **Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc (688111.SS)**: - Valuation methodology aligns with other Chinese SaaS companies, applying a 10.2% WACC [16] - Risks include slower AI penetration and intensified competition [18] Additional Considerations - **Market Dynamics**: The software sector is experiencing high valuations despite being one of the worst-performing segments over the past two years, indicating a potential market correction if demand does not materialize [5] - **Investment Banking Relationships**: Morgan Stanley has disclosed its investment banking relationships with several companies mentioned, which may influence research objectivity [6][19] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the Greater China IT Services and Software industry.

M Update China Autos & Shared Mobility | Asia Pacific September 22, 2024 08:11 PM GMT What are investors focused on? Investor interest in the auto sector rose following the recent bounce, but most are struggling to discern between beta-driven and idiosyncratic moves. A seasonal rally may take place but macro groundwork still looks fragile. Sector discussion Rising interest at both the single stock and sector level on both the long and short sides... China's auto sector has been unloved throughout most of th ...

North America Equity Research 22 September 2024 J P M O R G A N Apple Product Availability Tracker: Lead Times Expand Suggesting Healthy Demand, Albeit Softer on Higher End Than Last Year Overweight AAPL, AAPL US Price (20 Sep 24):$228.20 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

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